Ichimoku 15mn Scalping

[AsherEWT]

Here are some rules to follow for Ichimoku Kumo Breakout Trading on 15mn timeframe ...

1. I’m using ProRealTime charting Package http://www.prorealtime.com which is provided by my CFD Broker, although you can use it for Free by registering at ProRealTime.com, you will only get the DailyTF with the Free Account. They also have paid subscription options too which will give you access to all other smaller timeframes

2. However, there is nothing that is special about this particular package, this all can be achieved with any other platform (such as MT4) as long as the rules are followed properly

3. I trade certain things during certain hours, such as I concentrate on HangSeng, ASX200, Nifty (Indian Futures), Gold and Silver during the Asian hours. FTSE100 and the major FX Pairs during the London hours and NASDAQ100, DJIA and Crude Oil (as well as other Commodities) during the NY hours

4. My charting package also comes with an Alerting system based on certain pre-defined conditions. Of course, I’m looking for Kumo Breakouts for this sort of Scalping

5. Although I sometimes trade against the higher timeframe trend, I would still advise you to trade only in the direction of 1H if you’re scalping on 15mn charts

6. Its always a good idea to set the TP quite far from the current price and then keep moving SL in the trend direction (as shown in chart below)

7. The good thing about Heikin-Ashi DOJI is that it saves you from exiting your trade too early. As you can see in the chart below, I moved my SL down to 20248 (the original entry was 20502) because that was HIGH of Doji candle. If that DOJI was validated the Index should have moved higher than this level and would have closed our trade. This never happened and we continued to stay in the Trade, should look for next Doji now

Hope this helps further …

[AsherEWT]

I'm completely LOST with your assumptions and calculation. What is this all based on and how did you reach to these conclusions plus what Ichimoku has to do with it ?

Hi AsherEWT

Interesting system.

My initial evalation. One cannot expect a single technical indicators to have odds beyond 55:45. Assuming using Ichimoku in this way has positive odds 53:47 I estimate

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                       Strategy: Ichimoku systen
                 Trades per mnd: 30,00
                 Average profit: 30 pips  (1,85% of capital) ***
                   Average loss: 30 pips  (1,85% of capital) ***
              Profitable trades: 53,00%

                       Leverage: 8,00
              Net P&L per trade: 1,38 pips  (0,085% of capital)
  Average loss/stdDev per trade: 30,00 pips  (1,85% of capital)
           Risk level/stoploss?: 36,00 pips  (2,22% of capital)

                 Monthly return: 1,64%
                  Annual return: 19,70%
               Average drawdown: -24,86%
                Annual defaults: 0,80%

Taking into account 2 pips spread cost

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                      Strategy: Ichimoku systen
                 Trades per mnd: 30,00
                 Average profit: 28 pips  (1,29% of capital)
                   Average loss: 32 pips  (1,48% of capital)
              Profitable trades: 53,00%

                       Leverage: 6,00
              Net P&L per trade: -0,15 pips  (-0,01% of capital)
  Average loss/stdDev per trade: 32,00 pips  (1,48% of capital)
           Risk level/stoploss?: 38,40 pips  (1,77% of capital)

                 Monthly return: -1,44%
                  Annual return: -11,51%
               Average drawdown: -30,12%
                Annual defaults: 0,46%

Trading in diretion of trend improves odds, let's say by 54:46. Then we get (53:47)*(54:46) => 57:43

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                       Strategy: Ichimoku systen
                 Trades per mnd: 30,00
                 Average profit: 28 pips  (1,51% of capital)
                   Average loss: 32 pips  (1,72% of capital)
              Profitable trades: 57,00%

                       Leverage: 7,00
              Net P&L per trade: 1,69 pips  (0,091% of capital)
  Average loss/stdDev per trade: 32,00 pips  (1,72% of capital)
           Risk level/stoploss?: 38,40 pips  (2,07% of capital)

                 Monthly return: 1,79%
                  Annual return: 30,43%
               Average drawdown: -21,65%
                Annual defaults: 0,44%

Then moving SL and using Heikin-Ashi DOJI as exit may increase TP and reduce SL. Let's say by 2 pips on both TP and SL. My optimistic estimate is 6.5% per month with max 2.5% risk

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                       Strategy: Ichimoku systen
                 Trades per mnd: 30,00
                 Average profit: 30 pips  (2,08% of capital)
                   Average loss: 30 pips  (2,08% of capital)
              Profitable trades: 57,00%

                       Leverage: 9,00
              Net P&L per trade: 3,23 pips  (0,22% of capital)
  Average loss/stdDev per trade: 30,00 pips  (2,08% of capital)
           Risk level/stoploss?: 36,00 pips  (2,49% of capital)

                 Monthly return: 6,50%
                  Annual return: 110,55%
               Average drawdown: -16,87%
                Annual defaults: 0,52%

My pessimistic estimate is what I get with 4 pips spread cost, 1.8% with max 2% risk

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                       Strategy: Ichimoku systen
                 Trades per mnd: 30,00
                 Average profit: 28 pips  (1,51% of capital)
                   Average loss: 32 pips  (1,72% of capital)
              Profitable trades: 57,00%

                       Leverage: 7,00
              Net P&L per trade: 1,69 pips  (0,091% of capital)
  Average loss/stdDev per trade: 32,00 pips  (1,72% of capital)
           Risk level/stoploss?: 38,40 pips  (2,07% of capital)

                 Monthly return: 1,83%
                  Annual return: 31,07%
               Average drawdown: -21,62%
                Annual defaults: 0,30%

(*** Of course I don't know if average profit will be 30 pips, but it does not matter. Substituting 30 pips with 50 pips has almost no bottomline effect)
kjell

[AsherEWT]

Sorry but I've to say this ... you've no idea what things you're trying to compare with each other ...

The fact you overlooked is that I wasnt talking about Crossover but the Breakout Trading, they are entirely different in nature.

The probabilities are from toolbox at http://forums.forex-strategies-revealed.com/floor-traders-essential-toolbox-t279.html
I responded what I think will be edge probabilities. The Ichimoku crossover is an indicator like MACD that aggregates past prices. Unlike Daily Pivot Points or SMA 100 there is little selfprofecy in it.