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Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:00 am
by grantyboy
grantyboy wrote:GPYJPY and if we manage to get a pullback (not holding my breath) then I'm looking for selling opportunities around the mid to top of the white arrow.

The attachment GBPJPYD1.PNG is no longer available


Otherwise will look for a break below 182.5 and selling signals from there.


So price is back up in a prior GJ zone of interest around 184.5->185 so keeping a close eye on selling action from here....

Same with GU and any confirmed selling from around 153.5->.8

GBPUSDH1.png

Day to day influences or just charts?

PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:31 am
by Ilary
You've been quite active GrantyBoy! I hope your bets play out successfully!

I've been watching for a long time and I have also been adopting the trend/momentum method detailed here...but I have some question that I hope someone can help me with.

Basically the focus in this thread is on price behaviour...look for clear trends on the Daily or 4H, then mark up evident levels and keep buying dips or selling rallies in line with the trend at 1H violation points (with a 5Min trigger) or at 4H violation points (less common, but a 15Min 1-2-3).

While the charting makes logical sense, I have often found myself wondering about the fundamentals behind the trades. Do you guys trade without using fundamental data? Is it really possible to make money without using fundamentals? For example, RBNZ cut rates but is today a good day to look for shorts?

Yesterday the story was risk-on (during Europe anyway) so would it have made sense to look long on GbpJpy for example?

I hope you are able to understand the question: are you trading with pure technicals? And if you are using fundamental data as well, how do you work that into the equation? If there is a weak.-NZD theme in the markets, how do you know today will be a good day to play the theme, or whether it's better to sit the day out?

Thank you and good luck.

:wink:

Re: Day to day influences or just charts?

PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:40 pm
by Carll
Ilary wrote:Basically the focus in this thread is on price behaviour...
While the charting makes logical sense, I have often found myself wondering about the fundamentals behind the trades.
Is it really possible to make money without using fundamentals?

The type of structure used in this & similar trend approaches is based primarily on rolling momentum.
That type of price movement is virtually always the direct result of directional bias orchestrated & influenced by fundamental persuasion, so whether someone claims they're trading exclusively technically or not, in reality (if they're utilizing this type of approach) they're actually betting a strong fundamental bias anyway!

Market participants are constantly evaluating & revaluing quotes based on under/overweight exposure to a particular regional currency. Forward interest rate expectations & its inflationary consequences (which accounts for the majority of price weighting) are the number 1 focus & if a specific regional hub is weakening or strengthening v/s a trading partner it will reveal itself in the established technical structure presented in the graphs & charting images such as those portrayed in the pages of this thread.

I suppose it's entirely possible to make money trading via an exclusive technical model, as it perhaps is to trade an exclusive fundamental one, but I seriously doubt there are many trading professionally who do so successfully over a prolonged period.
Ilary wrote:Yesterday the story was risk-on (during Europe anyway) so would it have made sense to look long on GbpJpy for example?

It might have done if your specific frame of reference is geared towards that particular style.
I guess it depends on how you play your game & which tools you choose to operate with.

If using short range themes in tandem with technical structuring affords you reliability & consistency then all power to you.
Most of the prop players, model funds & broker participants running that type of set up have certainly made a decent living in that environment.
Ilary wrote:If there is a weak NZD theme in the markets, how do you know today will be a good day to play the theme, or whether it's better to sit the day out?

You don't.
You do what you normally do in previously similar scenarios & play the risk game based on probabilities.
It's what everyone else does too!

When your probabilities play ball you get paid based on how you play that ball.
When your probabilities fail to play ball you either bail out based on your pre-defined criteria or closely manage your exposure until the reasons for initiating the bet no longer stack up.

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:37 am
by Ilary
Hello Carll,

I think you were one of the original commentators on here yes? In that case thank you for coming back to help me :D

Yes I had understood the momentum part: we are not interested in playing a trend if price is retracing. We are interested in playing the trend when price is continuing to push forward with momentum. It also makes total sense, even to a "retail girl" like me.

So you're saying that by following this method (so a 4H or Daily primary chart for identifying the trend) we are actually playing in line with professional players that use fundamental info as well? That sounds really good 8) And I understand perfectly that we can never "know" what will happen...that is why I have developed a kind of style (i should say "copied" a style from others) attempting to take more uncertainty out of the trading process. Allow me to explain in detail:

for the week I try to understand the fundamentals using some free available bank research like so

https://gyazo.com/737e853e4059a22264f548b7dfb6602a
https://gyazo.com/226ff3ce8e6e580bc1d52f8063cc48e4

I have noticed how many bank reports "talk" about the same thing. So i try to follow what they are talking about, then I look on the charts to see if there's a trend to play. Recently, they were talking about weak Nzd so I was looking to short Nzd pairs. It made sense to play EurNzd long and NzdUsd short I think?

But each morning, I also try to read what participants are focusing on using IFR's free report:

https://gyazo.com/422f3a958af410b303c847e97ba1fea0

Now let me give you an example of why I do this. I spoke about GbpJpy from the other day on the 8th...IFR had spoken about "risk on" with Nikkei up 7.7% so I try to use that information to play the odds in technicals. GbpJpy gave 2 hooks: 1 before local data and one after local data.

https://gyazo.com/5a2ef4f8d5e7881aeb7ec3e5bb518fc7

https://gyazo.com/7b9216004ea914a661a46b94a875be4d

but the next day started with a 1H hook...although I had no reason to trust the technicals because, well, there was nothing I could read to tell me Gbp or Jpy were still in play.

https://gyazo.com/0b1a2bda544c5290dfce3a9f26dd5a66

So my question was about this scenario...basically I think you're saying that you play teh technicals anyhow, having faith in the structure?

Thank you Carll !

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:15 am
by Carll
Ilary wrote:So my question was about this scenario...basically I think you're saying that you play teh technicals anyhow, having faith in the structure?

Technical or charting visuals are merely a reflection of market psychology.
A good deal of that technical movement is influenced in no small part by the ongoing fundamental themes constantly ebbing & flowing through the market/s.
Some of those themes are well established & whenever fresh or additional data/news flow is released into the market it either confirms the current dominant trends or (temporarily) rejects them, which usually manifests itself via ranging or consolidation.

Other themes are short lived and/or unique event risks which although can be quite violent & extreme in the short-term, rarely impact negatively on an established trend. It often takes a lot of time & effort to turn a trend on its head & you'll usually receive a decent amount of forewarning beforehand.

The type of approach presented here focuses more on the former rather than the latter & looks to identify & bet on regional currencies or specific pairs which exhibit the typical behavior traits associated with a developing & continuing trend.
That specific structure tends to repeat itself consistently enough to construct & apply reliable set ups in which to bet on. So yes, if you're able to recognise & apply those typical set ups over & over again whenever the higher probability opportunities present themselves, it instils confidence in both the set ups & the approach. And if you're lining yourself up in sync with those dominant trend flows, by default you'll usually be betting with fundamental sentiment as opposed to fighting against it.

But at the end of the day Ilary, you're still playing the probability card however & whichever method you choose to navigate through the market.

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:03 am
by Ilary
Once again thank you Carll :wink:

Also forgive me if my writing not always clear - english is not my language. There is much talk on internt forums on CTAs that follow trend...even a study by Bank of America - ML showed how longer term moving averages (the 13,26,52 on the weekly) seem to describe trend following models. Even in stocks, there is much talk about momentum anomaly - which is stocks above their 52 week high or 250 day high. So, it seemed that "fundamental" players were looking on longer term time frames.

Instead, the 60 SMA on the 4H chart more or less means that I start to look "long" if above last week's high (more or less) for our means. I have also noted that the 60 SMA on the D1 chart more or less means I start to look "long" if above last month's high (more or less). Reading about CTA & trend following got me to think that is better to wait for break of prior month's high before considering trend reversed. Prior week reversals were more "short term" in that view.

Do you have opinion about this? 8)

Also about "probability card": that is maybe the most difficult part of trading markets. Entire career is based on "best guess" :roll:
Natural tendency is for me to look for security in these pages and elsewhere - but only working on psychology has helped me. But i still feel bad when opening position: trading definitely not natural for me! :oops:

So for week ahead, seems like FOMC will be main focus, and USD could be quiet or volatile pre-meeting. I like non-USD pairs this week.
Aud, Nzd, Cad look weakest. Gbp looks strongest, also with Forbes talking bullish. So, GbpNzd, GbpCad, GbpAud look good to me...UsdCad maybe after FOMC. EurGbp says Euro stronger than Gbp...but Euro used as funding currency now and Dax/Dow/Nikkei not clear to me so I stay away.

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:28 pm
by Carll
Ilary wrote:the 60 SMA on the 4H chart more or less means that I start to look "long" if above last week's high (more or less) for our means. I have also noted that the 60 SMA on the D1 chart more or less means I start to look "long" if above last month's high (more or less). Reading about CTA & trend following got me to think that is better to wait for break of prior month's high before considering trend reversed. Prior week reversals were more "short term" in that view.

Do you have opinion about this?

The only moving average presented & discussed within the content of this thread is of course the 60sma, which is configured across the medium range technical charts (4 & 1 hour). The reason for that is primarily the approach & style, which is focused on mid-term momentum shifts.

I, nor anyone I work with either use or have used other moving average permutations Ilya so I don't have an opinion on the weekly or daily averages mentioned in your post.

As we've said many times before, the material in this thread is merely a guide or framework for folks to pick up, run with & use to help formulate a structure from which to attack the markets. Each person needs to try & identify their own individual style preferences & risk profile because we all have different objectives to achieve.

What works or feels comfortable for me might not suit you or anyone else.
Ilary wrote:I like non-USD pairs this week.
Aud, Nzd, Cad look weakest. Gbp looks strongest.
So, GbpNzd, GbpCad, GbpAud look good to me...UsdCad maybe after FOMC.

That view was shared on Friday in this thread http://forums.babypips.com/melting-pot/ ... post722354 which was started by & is frequented occasionally by industry colleagues working with various brokerage houses, so your research & filtering process is pretty much spot on! 8)

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:30 am
by grantyboy
Plenty of bullish bias from last week on the EJ for me to be looking for longs. Where it's sitting right now near the BO from previous weekly Highs is looking like a spot for value in recent times but will likely wait for London open to see whether there is appetite to continue buying.

EURJPYH1.PNG

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:47 am
by grantyboy
grantyboy wrote:Plenty of bullish bias from last week on the EJ for me to be looking for longs. Where it's sitting right now near the BO from previous weekly Highs is looking like a spot for value in recent times but will likely wait for London open to see whether there is appetite to continue buying.

The attachment EURJPYH1.PNG is no longer available


Waiting for the London open proved prudent with price sliding down to an area of better value. Off to sleep so can't see what happens from here but would still be looking for buying action at the current level.

A failure to maintain the bullish momentum to create a new H1 high and / or a break through the Prev daily low @ 135.725 would have me shifting bias to the short side or looking for other opportunities.

EURJPYH1.PNG

Re: Technical Templates

PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:35 am
by kipper
grantyboy wrote:A failure to maintain the bullish momentum to create a new H1 high and / or a break through the Prev daily low @ 135.725 would have me looking for other opportunities.

Absolutely.
The big plus when executing this approach is the clarity in determining when to step aside & wait for more information!
That ability alone has saved me more money than i care to imagine since discovering this style of betting.

I've found it's always more sensible to shift focus to something that's honouring the natural trending flows than try & fight the market.