Technical Templates

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby grantyboy » Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:17 pm

grantyboy wrote:Keeping an eye on a couple of pairs at the moment. first up...GBPJPY. Looking for value and buying activity around the arrow at a Prev buy zone.

The attachment GBPJPYH1.png is no longer available


A shorter term position given the approaching highs from mid June where there might be a few sellers waiting but also probably the last place to get seated before it gets there.

The attachment GBPJPYH4.png is no longer available


GBPJPY update - With the news dive, I planned a scale in approach and entered a very small long position off the H1 lows. However, the bounce wasn't sustained and I couldn't keep an eye on it so scratched it for +45.

Sitting on the sidelines for now looking for any confirmed buying action from the current area or a break of the Weekly low which would have me shifting bias to the short side.

GBPJPYH1_after.png
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby strobe » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:28 pm

grantyboy wrote:EURAUD didn't quite make it back up to the Prev weekly low but has now broken the most recent H1 low. Therefore, I'm waiting for London open and then looking for shorts on retracement to the area of the white arrow.

Looks like you got your pullback on that one :)

That GBP/JPY has been too choppy & bitty for my tastes, as have most of the majors.
The summer doldrums will affect & impact liquidity until we get into September but there are bits & pieces of (fx) value about if you look hard for it - Canadian Dollar for instance has, over the past few weeks, offered up pretty decent trend continuation/pullback opportunities via most of it's crosses particularly v/s US$, YEN & STERLING.

It pays to be very selective at this time of the year & your patience will be sorely tested, but it has it's rewards when price does eventually decide to go on a little run every now & then!

Good luck with your positions grantyboy.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby grantyboy » Sun Aug 09, 2015 8:37 am

Thanks strobe, I didnt trade the pullback in the end as I didnt see a clean entry trigger. Thanks for the pointers on CAD though which isnt normally a currency that I watch.

Patience wont be a problem. While I went looking for other ways of trading I reached a point where I effectively stopped trading until I rationalised what I was buying and where I was buying it in a way that made sense to me. That one thing means that if the trade isnt there I let it go with no regrets or panic because it makes no sense for me to buy.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby grantyboy » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:45 am

GPYJPY and if we manage to get a pullback (not holding my breath) then I'm looking for selling opportunities around the mid to top of the white arrow.

GBPJPYD1.PNG


Otherwise will look for a break below 182.5 and selling signals from there.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby grantyboy » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:53 am

A short term play from yesterday on EURCAD. I was looking for selling off the white arrow with an initial target down by the weekly lows. Got my signal but needed to leave so closed it out a bit early on the approach to London open for a 1R.

EURCADH1.PNG
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby grantyboy » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:00 am

grantyboy wrote:GPYJPY and if we manage to get a pullback (not holding my breath) then I'm looking for selling opportunities around the mid to top of the white arrow.

The attachment GBPJPYD1.PNG is no longer available


Otherwise will look for a break below 182.5 and selling signals from there.


So price is back up in a prior GJ zone of interest around 184.5->185 so keeping a close eye on selling action from here....

Same with GU and any confirmed selling from around 153.5->.8

GBPUSDH1.png
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Day to day influences or just charts?

Postby Ilary » Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:31 am

You've been quite active GrantyBoy! I hope your bets play out successfully!

I've been watching for a long time and I have also been adopting the trend/momentum method detailed here...but I have some question that I hope someone can help me with.

Basically the focus in this thread is on price behaviour...look for clear trends on the Daily or 4H, then mark up evident levels and keep buying dips or selling rallies in line with the trend at 1H violation points (with a 5Min trigger) or at 4H violation points (less common, but a 15Min 1-2-3).

While the charting makes logical sense, I have often found myself wondering about the fundamentals behind the trades. Do you guys trade without using fundamental data? Is it really possible to make money without using fundamentals? For example, RBNZ cut rates but is today a good day to look for shorts?

Yesterday the story was risk-on (during Europe anyway) so would it have made sense to look long on GbpJpy for example?

I hope you are able to understand the question: are you trading with pure technicals? And if you are using fundamental data as well, how do you work that into the equation? If there is a weak.-NZD theme in the markets, how do you know today will be a good day to play the theme, or whether it's better to sit the day out?

Thank you and good luck.

:wink:
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Re: Day to day influences or just charts?

Postby Carll » Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:40 pm

Ilary wrote:Basically the focus in this thread is on price behaviour...
While the charting makes logical sense, I have often found myself wondering about the fundamentals behind the trades.
Is it really possible to make money without using fundamentals?

The type of structure used in this & similar trend approaches is based primarily on rolling momentum.
That type of price movement is virtually always the direct result of directional bias orchestrated & influenced by fundamental persuasion, so whether someone claims they're trading exclusively technically or not, in reality (if they're utilizing this type of approach) they're actually betting a strong fundamental bias anyway!

Market participants are constantly evaluating & revaluing quotes based on under/overweight exposure to a particular regional currency. Forward interest rate expectations & its inflationary consequences (which accounts for the majority of price weighting) are the number 1 focus & if a specific regional hub is weakening or strengthening v/s a trading partner it will reveal itself in the established technical structure presented in the graphs & charting images such as those portrayed in the pages of this thread.

I suppose it's entirely possible to make money trading via an exclusive technical model, as it perhaps is to trade an exclusive fundamental one, but I seriously doubt there are many trading professionally who do so successfully over a prolonged period.
Ilary wrote:Yesterday the story was risk-on (during Europe anyway) so would it have made sense to look long on GbpJpy for example?

It might have done if your specific frame of reference is geared towards that particular style.
I guess it depends on how you play your game & which tools you choose to operate with.

If using short range themes in tandem with technical structuring affords you reliability & consistency then all power to you.
Most of the prop players, model funds & broker participants running that type of set up have certainly made a decent living in that environment.
Ilary wrote:If there is a weak NZD theme in the markets, how do you know today will be a good day to play the theme, or whether it's better to sit the day out?

You don't.
You do what you normally do in previously similar scenarios & play the risk game based on probabilities.
It's what everyone else does too!

When your probabilities play ball you get paid based on how you play that ball.
When your probabilities fail to play ball you either bail out based on your pre-defined criteria or closely manage your exposure until the reasons for initiating the bet no longer stack up.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Ilary » Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:37 am

Hello Carll,

I think you were one of the original commentators on here yes? In that case thank you for coming back to help me :D

Yes I had understood the momentum part: we are not interested in playing a trend if price is retracing. We are interested in playing the trend when price is continuing to push forward with momentum. It also makes total sense, even to a "retail girl" like me.

So you're saying that by following this method (so a 4H or Daily primary chart for identifying the trend) we are actually playing in line with professional players that use fundamental info as well? That sounds really good 8) And I understand perfectly that we can never "know" what will happen...that is why I have developed a kind of style (i should say "copied" a style from others) attempting to take more uncertainty out of the trading process. Allow me to explain in detail:

for the week I try to understand the fundamentals using some free available bank research like so

https://gyazo.com/737e853e4059a22264f548b7dfb6602a
https://gyazo.com/226ff3ce8e6e580bc1d52f8063cc48e4

I have noticed how many bank reports "talk" about the same thing. So i try to follow what they are talking about, then I look on the charts to see if there's a trend to play. Recently, they were talking about weak Nzd so I was looking to short Nzd pairs. It made sense to play EurNzd long and NzdUsd short I think?

But each morning, I also try to read what participants are focusing on using IFR's free report:

https://gyazo.com/422f3a958af410b303c847e97ba1fea0

Now let me give you an example of why I do this. I spoke about GbpJpy from the other day on the 8th...IFR had spoken about "risk on" with Nikkei up 7.7% so I try to use that information to play the odds in technicals. GbpJpy gave 2 hooks: 1 before local data and one after local data.

https://gyazo.com/5a2ef4f8d5e7881aeb7ec3e5bb518fc7

https://gyazo.com/7b9216004ea914a661a46b94a875be4d

but the next day started with a 1H hook...although I had no reason to trust the technicals because, well, there was nothing I could read to tell me Gbp or Jpy were still in play.

https://gyazo.com/0b1a2bda544c5290dfce3a9f26dd5a66

So my question was about this scenario...basically I think you're saying that you play teh technicals anyhow, having faith in the structure?

Thank you Carll !
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Carll » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:15 am

Ilary wrote:So my question was about this scenario...basically I think you're saying that you play teh technicals anyhow, having faith in the structure?

Technical or charting visuals are merely a reflection of market psychology.
A good deal of that technical movement is influenced in no small part by the ongoing fundamental themes constantly ebbing & flowing through the market/s.
Some of those themes are well established & whenever fresh or additional data/news flow is released into the market it either confirms the current dominant trends or (temporarily) rejects them, which usually manifests itself via ranging or consolidation.

Other themes are short lived and/or unique event risks which although can be quite violent & extreme in the short-term, rarely impact negatively on an established trend. It often takes a lot of time & effort to turn a trend on its head & you'll usually receive a decent amount of forewarning beforehand.

The type of approach presented here focuses more on the former rather than the latter & looks to identify & bet on regional currencies or specific pairs which exhibit the typical behavior traits associated with a developing & continuing trend.
That specific structure tends to repeat itself consistently enough to construct & apply reliable set ups in which to bet on. So yes, if you're able to recognise & apply those typical set ups over & over again whenever the higher probability opportunities present themselves, it instils confidence in both the set ups & the approach. And if you're lining yourself up in sync with those dominant trend flows, by default you'll usually be betting with fundamental sentiment as opposed to fighting against it.

But at the end of the day Ilary, you're still playing the probability card however & whichever method you choose to navigate through the market.
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