Technical Templates

[Ilary]

Once again thank you Carll

Also forgive me if my writing not always clear - english is not my language. There is much talk on internt forums on CTAs that follow trend...even a study by Bank of America - ML showed how longer term moving averages (the 13,26,52 on the weekly) seem to describe trend following models. Even in stocks, there is much talk about momentum anomaly - which is stocks above their 52 week high or 250 day high. So, it seemed that "fundamental" players were looking on longer term time frames.

Instead, the 60 SMA on the 4H chart more or less means that I start to look "long" if above last week's high (more or less) for our means. I have also noted that the 60 SMA on the D1 chart more or less means I start to look "long" if above last month's high (more or less). Reading about CTA & trend following got me to think that is better to wait for break of prior month's high before considering trend reversed. Prior week reversals were more "short term" in that view.

Do you have opinion about this?

Also about "probability card": that is maybe the most difficult part of trading markets. Entire career is based on "best guess"
Natural tendency is for me to look for security in these pages and elsewhere - but only working on psychology has helped me. But i still feel bad when opening position: trading definitely not natural for me!

So for week ahead, seems like FOMC will be main focus, and USD could be quiet or volatile pre-meeting. I like non-USD pairs this week.
Aud, Nzd, Cad look weakest. Gbp looks strongest, also with Forbes talking bullish. So, GbpNzd, GbpCad, GbpAud look good to me...UsdCad maybe after FOMC. EurGbp says Euro stronger than Gbp...but Euro used as funding currency now and Dax/Dow/Nikkei not clear to me so I stay away.

[Carll]

the 60 SMA on the 4H chart more or less means that I start to look "long" if above last week's high (more or less) for our means. I have also noted that the 60 SMA on the D1 chart more or less means I start to look "long" if above last month's high (more or less). Reading about CTA & trend following got me to think that is better to wait for break of prior month's high before considering trend reversed. Prior week reversals were more "short term" in that view.

Do you have opinion about this?

The only moving average presented & discussed within the content of this thread is of course the 60sma, which is configured across the medium range technical charts (4 & 1 hour). The reason for that is primarily the approach & style, which is focused on mid-term momentum shifts.

I, nor anyone I work with either use or have used other moving average permutations Ilya so I don't have an opinion on the weekly or daily averages mentioned in your post.

As we've said many times before, the material in this thread is merely a guide or framework for folks to pick up, run with & use to help formulate a structure from which to attack the markets. Each person needs to try & identify their own individual style preferences & risk profile because we all have different objectives to achieve.

What works or feels comfortable for me might not suit you or anyone else.

I like non-USD pairs this week.
Aud, Nzd, Cad look weakest. Gbp looks strongest.
So, GbpNzd, GbpCad, GbpAud look good to me...UsdCad maybe after FOMC.

That view was shared on Friday in this thread http://forums.babypips.com/melting-pot/ ... post722354 which was started by & is frequented occasionally by industry colleagues working with various brokerage houses, so your research & filtering process is pretty much spot on!

[grantyboy]

Plenty of bullish bias from last week on the EJ for me to be looking for longs. Where it's sitting right now near the BO from previous weekly Highs is looking like a spot for value in recent times but will likely wait for London open to see whether there is appetite to continue buying.

[grantyboy]

Plenty of bullish bias from last week on the EJ for me to be looking for longs. Where it's sitting right now near the BO from previous weekly Highs is looking like a spot for value in recent times but will likely wait for London open to see whether there is appetite to continue buying.

The attachment EURJPYH1.PNG is no longer available

Waiting for the London open proved prudent with price sliding down to an area of better value. Off to sleep so can't see what happens from here but would still be looking for buying action at the current level.

A failure to maintain the bullish momentum to create a new H1 high and / or a break through the Prev daily low @ 135.725 would have me shifting bias to the short side or looking for other opportunities.

[kipper]

A failure to maintain the bullish momentum to create a new H1 high and / or a break through the Prev daily low @ 135.725 would have me looking for other opportunities.

Absolutely.
The big plus when executing this approach is the clarity in determining when to step aside & wait for more information!
That ability alone has saved me more money than i care to imagine since discovering this style of betting.

I've found it's always more sensible to shift focus to something that's honouring the natural trending flows than try & fight the market.

[grantyboy]

A failure to maintain the bullish momentum to create a new H1 high and / or a break through the Prev daily low @ 135.725 would have me looking for other opportunities.

Absolutely.
The big plus when executing this approach is the clarity in determining when to step aside & wait for more information!
That ability alone has saved me more money than i care to imagine since discovering this style of betting.

I've found it's always more sensible to shift focus to something that's honouring the natural trending flows than try & fight the market.

I got triggered into a very small long position off the area I'd mentioned but it didn't last so got stopped out while I slept.

Now on the sidelines or looking for shorts if I can get in with >1R before the previous monthly low (unlikely as I sit and type this).

[grantyboy]

Markets seem to have gone to sleep with FOMC being the predominant news item along with what i can only describe as risk pause behaviour.

Had one attempt at a GY short continuation play thru 184.65 but it failed to break through the day's low so closed it out for BE and that was the last movement I saw in anything worth watching.

[Ilary]

I like Aud longs still, vs Usd and Gbp. Rest of pairs have been taken off watchlist.

Wish you luck today grantyboy...will not be trading tomorrow because of FOMC, so see you back on Friday maybe.

[grantyboy]

I like Aud longs still, vs Usd and Gbp. Rest of pairs have been taken off watchlist.

Wish you luck today grantyboy...will not be trading tomorrow because of FOMC, so see you back on Friday maybe.

Gbp print took the market by surprise so I'm on the sidelines today and like you wont be trading tomo. I dont trade Fridays as I find them a bit erratic. Plus the weekend has well and truly begun by Friday evening in Oz . I'll be back next week. All the best with your trades and i noticed EA has poked its head up a bit.

[Ilary]

Hello everyone 8

Hope week is good for you...I be lucky this week, short Nzd & Aud.

I have question this morning about setups I see at beginning of thread - before started playing pullbacks. Beginning of thread show Asian breakouts if above Week Open/Day Open. Today (Sept 24) there was similar trigger on AudUsd through 6992. So I wonder...

main method taught on thread is pullback entry if 4H +1H trending...is momo setup complimentary to main trend/momo method? Is only requirement to have price on both side of week & day open? Not clear to me why pullback method better than momo breakout method...

Also, do I understand correctly: Joe on page 5 show "similar" trend/momo system, using D1 as primary for trend and 4H for momo points (usually prior day highs/lows). But he show break of momo high in line with trend as trigger, not pullback. I guess that main 4h/1h main method taugh is similar, only use 4H trend and 1H momo high/low when pulling back?

AudUsd Daily as Primary: https://gyazo.com/945c4e49bee75b578afb05b5e414d17e
AudUsd 4H momo steps highlighted, "short breakout" levels https://gyazo.com/ec24d9bb861bc8cdffb5363c9982e108

AudUsd 4H as Primary, also with 4H bias shift "momo" entries: https://gyazo.com/551188746eebd9da0175b86eb0ba51d6
AudUsd 1H momo steps highlighted, short/long breakout levels depending on bias: https://gyazo.com/34e1c7c19a338d89793db0156cafe4e6

Thank you for help!