
Also forgive me if my writing not always clear - english is not my language. There is much talk on internt forums on CTAs that follow trend...even a study by Bank of America - ML showed how longer term moving averages (the 13,26,52 on the weekly) seem to describe trend following models. Even in stocks, there is much talk about momentum anomaly - which is stocks above their 52 week high or 250 day high. So, it seemed that "fundamental" players were looking on longer term time frames.
Instead, the 60 SMA on the 4H chart more or less means that I start to look "long" if above last week's high (more or less) for our means. I have also noted that the 60 SMA on the D1 chart more or less means I start to look "long" if above last month's high (more or less). Reading about CTA & trend following got me to think that is better to wait for break of prior month's high before considering trend reversed. Prior week reversals were more "short term" in that view.
Do you have opinion about this?

Also about "probability card": that is maybe the most difficult part of trading markets. Entire career is based on "best guess"

Natural tendency is for me to look for security in these pages and elsewhere - but only working on psychology has helped me. But i still feel bad when opening position: trading definitely not natural for me!

So for week ahead, seems like FOMC will be main focus, and USD could be quiet or volatile pre-meeting. I like non-USD pairs this week.
Aud, Nzd, Cad look weakest. Gbp looks strongest, also with Forbes talking bullish. So, GbpNzd, GbpCad, GbpAud look good to me...UsdCad maybe after FOMC. EurGbp says Euro stronger than Gbp...but Euro used as funding currency now and Dax/Dow/Nikkei not clear to me so I stay away.