Technical Templates

[round number]

The bit I’m not understanding in your commentary is underlined & highlighted in bold:

My question is: the evolution of the thread has hovered towards larger pullback plays in line with the bias, and this method has given me an edge in 2014. However, there are moments, like today, where price is honouring the bias and is in consolidation mode..and on the micro frames makes a move right to/slightly below a momentum level, consolidates or pulls back without violating the prior swing (like EurUsd 15Min today) and then break in line with the bias and go on a stop rampage.

What & where is the momentum level you're alluding to in today’s EURUSD pair?
If, in your opinion, price is honouring a bias & breaks out in the direction of that bias, then surely it's a valid set up no matter what yeah?

The stop rampage bit is also confusing me.
I don't see price going on any kind of stop rampage this morning on that pair.
All I see is see is a pretty common lift through a quiet Tokyo session as Europe opens for business with price printing a higher low on the 5 & 15minute charts with subsequent follow through.

There won't be any real substantial stops on that pair until 1.39
Limit orders & offers will be tiered into & out the other side of that round number + buy stops beyond 1.3920 toward the current years highs.

Bids will be tiered into the approach to 1.38 & 3780 with sell stops underneath there back towards 1.3740 & the current months lows.

Do you have any comments/suggestions as to:
1) whether anyone still plays momentum moves?

I still play momentum set ups, sure.

2) what the background looks like before a momentum move is high probability?

As you should know, the background conditions will be very much dictated by what's influencing & driving the current price action & that criteria changes constantly.
Your trade expectations (including entry/% risk & profit expectations/trade management) will always need to reflect the current price drivers.

If you keep an eye on your ADR data you'll know that ranges have contracted again this year by as much as 20% on some of the majors, reflecting & further confirming the current choppy scenario. In those types of conditions it's generally prudent to lower potential profit runs & keep a sharper eye on exit & trailing stop parameters.

3) any trigger considerations?

Triggers are personal Justin.
I still predominantly use the simple, effective ones (hook on the sub hourly timeframes in tandem with oscillator divergence when appropriate) that have been presented throughout the thread.
They certainly haven't let me down yet.

[kipper]

The bit I’m not understanding in your commentary is underlined & highlighted in bold:
What & where is the momentum level you're alluding to in today’s EURUSD pair?

The stop rampage bit is also confusing me.
I don't see price going on any kind of stop rampage this morning on that pair.
All I see is see is a pretty common lift through a quiet Tokyo session as Europe opens for business with price printing a higher low on the 5 & 15minute charts with subsequent follow through.

You beat me to it. I was also a little bemused with the momentum comment.

Apart from some tight trailing (short) profit stops on the euro/usd, I don't think there will too much more in the way of stop activity either jcp, which is undoubtedly evidenced by the lack of aggressive follow through since the breakout above yesterday's high earlier in london trade.

[jcpfx]

The bit I’m not understanding in your commentary is underlined & highlighted in bold:

My question is: the evolution of the thread has hovered towards larger pullback plays in line with the bias, and this method has given me an edge in 2014. However, there are moments, like today, where price is honouring the bias and is in consolidation mode..and on the micro frames makes a move right to/slightly below a momentum level, consolidates or pulls back without violating the prior swing (like EurUsd 15Min today) and then break in line with the bias and go on a stop rampage.
What & where is the momentum level you're alluding to in today’s EURUSD pair?

If, in your opinion, price is honouring a bias & breaks out in the direction of that bias, then surely it's a valid set up no matter what yeah?

Yeah my stop rampage was a little exaggerated on the euro...i was just surprized by the follow through on Crude. Then also Cable got a lift from the data this morning. Anyhow, here is the chart from euro...price builds and then fades slightly below yesterday's high (momentum point), creating the current day's high (momentum point) and giving a shallow pullback with a 5min hook, which gives strength to the breakout if it occurs (as it did).

What I am alluring to is the actual foreground/micro considerations here. I have noticed that when price behaves like today, fading off before the main momentum level whilst maintaining the cycle action, the breakouts tend to be more successful.



If instead, price breaks the momentum level (catching the orders there) and then pulls back, i've noticed that the follow through is more often a fake out. But i guess you've never really read that much into the foreground situation, keeping things simpler?

I still play momentum set ups, sure.

Triggers are personal Justin.
I still predominantly use the simple, effective ones (hook on the sub hourly timeframes in tandem with oscillator divergence when appropriate) that have been presented throughout the thread.
They certainly haven't let me down yet.

I have been executing some decent trades on the back of the pullback triggers in 2014, mainly 4h (around a current or prior week high or low in line with bias), 1h (if the day opens and tokyo is pulling back, around a prior day high or low in line with bias), and 15min (if tokyo is supportive or in range).

However, there are some occasions like this morning where there is no pullback and price is pushing through momentum levels...and i would feel fine getting aboard (since to me Euro and Cable and Crude are still buy on dips..even if i favour cable from a sentiment point of view) but no pullback available because of the aggressive momentum out of the blocks. I have refrained from taking these setups because of the fear of false breaks and also because this thread has moved towards pullbacks, precisely to avoid false breaks.

That's about it...i was just wondering if i am going down the nonsene road again (which may be entirely possible since habits are hard to break )

[zilly]

I haven't seen too much micro level analysis on here jcp. The reason being those timeframes are only usually referenced to assist with timing entries & occasionally managing a position into the day's close when considering rollover possibilities.

If there's any in depth analysis to be done (which is rare) it will be conducted on the background (large hourly) charts, which is also where the higher probability momentum opportunities are considered.
An example of that being the hourly charts on aud/usd & aud/nzd.
In my view those 2 are representative of the current higher probability momentum candidates.

Most of the guys, me included, prefer to trigger micro timeframe (momentum) entries when macro timeframe momentum exists. It's more fluid & tends to offer higher follow through success, at least until that momentum begins to exhaust & fade.

If you compare those two 4 hourly charts with eur/usd over the past couple months you'll immediately see the obvious difference in the background momentum behavior.

[jcpfx]

Hey Zilly,

yes i agree totally! In fact i've been on the Aussie until last thursday when it rejected 9440, and i have not yet had a green light to re-enter. The 1h pullback on friday was a little too close to that major daily flip that was rejected so i just refrained and have stood still on teh aussie. There has been a 4H hook overnight but 1) price is not really behaving well for an entry and 2) chatter i hear is that there isn't much fresh money going into the market this week.

On AudNzd i saw the 15min trigger this morning after the pullback and i guess you've taken it? I did not, for reason #2 stated above.

Since you guys are on the ball in the forum today, i'll ask for your considerations on 1 last post...after lunch

Thanks for stepping in thus far though

[jcpfx]

I would like to show you what i have been up to, or what i have been looking for.

Here are the two opportunities from the EUro last week. We were down at march lows, aggressive rejection candles seen on friday, and a flat tokyo session + momentum entry at the tokyo high for a trip back up the ladder. It is a counter-flow opportunity, but it's my rationalization of what Joe told Jack at the beginning of the thread here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=140&start=120#p1736



and here is the zoom on how i took them aboard:





I have refrained from playing anything lower than a 15min hook simply because a lot of the discussion that had gone on in the thread pointed out how the deeper pullbacks (1h/4h) were higher probability...and i've stuck to that advice thus far. However, since there are some opportunities like this morning, where price consolidates and gives a 5min hook before getting a boost up the ladder, i was wondering which particular conditions may be compelling for a sub-hourly hook and be able to take on these opportunities as well.

Hope this makes sense!

[zilly]

On AudNzd i saw the 15min trigger this morning after the pullback and i guess you've taken it?

No, I added to it on that early morning pullback during Monday's trade jcp.
I still like the Aussie at the moment. Chinese growth prospects appear reasonably healthy & Australia benefits heavily from that regions heartbeat, + it’s continuing to attract support from the larger Asian Investment & Hedge funds who are still buying dips which adds a little spice to it for now anyway.

We'll soon get wind of a change of heart via the cyclical price action on the hourlies if the outlook should change & that will prompt me to perhaps begin to adjust my strategy of legging into selective Aussie longs via pullbacks.

[round number]

I would like to show you what i have been up to, or what i have been looking for.
Here are the two opportunities from the EUro last week.
It is a counter-flow opportunity, but it's my rationalization of what Joe told Jack at the beginning of the thread here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=140&start=120#p1736

Yeah but unless I'm very much mistaken the example you're referencing from 4 years ago was describing the activity related to a defined range jcp, not a conflicting trending cycle.
The behavioural aspects of each technical definition will be approached & traded differently.

Are you absolutely sure using a range tactic such as that when attempting to trade against that type of trend flow is a higher probability option?
The fact you're attempting to play a counter trend set up (based on the previous hourly technical view) at that point is risky enough, but if your testing & results indicate a positive expectancy from playing that type of scenario then who am I to argue.

[jcpfx]

Hey RN,

i agree totally that the specific fundamentals & whatever additional info they might have accessed 4 years ago to play off that base are unknown to me. However, i'm not sure i understand the "range" you speak about. The only range I see is this: but between that type of behaviour, and looking to fire off a solid level in line with the general direction in prices on the Euro as it was last week, i'd rather prefer the second to be honest...



Cable Daily above vs Euro daily below...



But i'm taking into consideration your comments because i may have just been lucky so far...

[round number]

i'm not sure i understand the "range" you speak about.

Their discussion was based on triggering entries off range type conditions & the hourly charts were showing clear upper & lower levels covering a 200 pip range over a month long time period.
This is a snapshot chart from that discussion/post highlighting the top end of that range.

But if you conduct a like-for-like technical comparison against the hourly chart of the euro price action from a couple of weeks ago you can see the structural make-up is different because your entry examples are emanating from a trending move.
That’s what I was referring to.