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[jcpfx]

Happy friday everyone,

i think the lesson of this week is "dont forget that FX isn't the only thing that exists". I got some gold this week, with the last position opened this morning. There might be uncertainty regarding various market influences (ukraine, draghi's comments, taper theme) but the bias rarely lies. Gold has been in a position of strength lately compared to the currency pairs that have been sleepy for the first part of this week and last week.


1H chart


5MIn chart

I can bet there were a whole lot of people trying to sell the Euro today...and the lesson thus far is that as long as the bias is up, you don't fight it unless you've got an excellent reason, and far away from potential re-ingagement zones. The euro has a clear 4H hook in evidence today, and held up at yesterday's low print close to the current week's low. I did not engage the Euro, because there is conflicting evidence surrounding the euro pairs today, and there were clearer opportunities...but today's price action thus far has proven the bias right

[xerb]

I can bet there were a whole lot of people trying to sell the Euro today...and the lesson thus far is that as long as the bias is up, you don't fight it

That’s clearly evidenced by the stats presented via 2 large retail observers today.

The euro has a clear 4H hook in evidence today, and held up at yesterday's low print close to the current week's low.

There's also a very clear 60 minute double bottom hook from late yesterday confirming the higher low & bullish bias on that pair, focusing long only bets via sub-hourly triggers today for those so inclined.

Patience is a virtue & providing your discipline is solid, opportunities will continue to present themselves.

[jcpfx]

My first trade to the new week.

Gold, Nzd, Eur all strong in my prep work...jpy and usd feeling the pain. So i'll be looking to get long pullbacks in Gold, EurUsd, NzdUsd, this week...maybe AudUsd after the sentiment shift overnight...



1H Hook in evidence right around the 1373 flip zone... playing a 1-2-3 break on the 5Min if it breaks at 1380.3 or a 5min hook (whichever comes first)

[jcpfx]

Needless to say, i had to scratch that trade and was able to limit damage on the subsequent bounce.

Gold is approaching the 1355 level that is my next contact point. So we'll see how it behaves and whether it gives a 4H hook to play off of.

The euro is eating up the upward momentum it had overnight and also Kiwi and Aussie aren't encouraging as of yet. So it may be another dull day

[round number]

Until the set ups come into view there's nothing else to do other than plant those hands firmly underneath your arse & sit tight.

[jcpfx]

THe Euro setup today after bad data...Zew came in quite weak but the market could not sell off. Gave some convincing 1H action + hook and on the 5MIn i played the 1-2-3 entry. Price tagged the o/n stops but did not consolidate and follow through. I had to scratch the trade at 3922 unfortunately.

Instead, like a moron, i waited for too much confirmation today on Kiwi when it presented the 1H hook and failed to participate in the nice rally.

All in all, choppy conditions in the past 3 weeks have kept me on edge...market stays choppy and sleepy...then wakes up and if you're not paying attention you'll miss the ride!

[jcpfx]

Well better late then never...i found myself fighting some more inner demons in the past few weeks of trading and i decided to create a little spreadsheet calculating the probability of subsequent losses. The reason being, i still found myself too attached to the outcome of any particular entry, which also means having an expectation for the next trade. Another version of "wanting to be right" if you will.

Anyhow, this spreadsheet really helped me:



So when thinking in terms of long term survival and trading for a living for many years to come, it puts this debate into perspective

I'm going to be increasingly focusing on the background (strategy) part of my trading, as you guys have constantly tried to point out....

My win% is still around 65% but if i can detach myself from the outcome even more, it could benefit my results.

Hope it's an eye opener for others too!

[speedbump]

I'm going to be increasingly focusing on the background (strategy) part of my trading, as you guys have constantly tried to point out....

That's where it all starts.
If the foundation isn't solid the rest of it will (eventually) collapse.

I still maintain capital availability is the most under-rated & overlooked part of the equation though, especially for those seeking to take this game to the next level.
Too little capital places much more stress on the individual.
The temptation to force sub-par bets, particularly when the market isn't offering up an abundance of high probability opportunities suited to a specific style or approach, definitely ramps up the pressure on the performance quality & activity stats.
It also has a huge bearing on frustration levels when you've been waiting patiently for set ups & they don't exactly go to plan.

There will be very regular periods throughout the year where a prolonged flat position is the only realistic option when trading this type of trending approach, particularly when volatility evaporates or flatlines for long periods of time.
There are an awful lot of people, especially newbies, who will find those scenario's extremely difficult to manage.

[jcpfx]

I still maintain capital availability is the most under-rated & overlooked part of the equation though, especially for those seeking to take this game to the next level.

I have learned that the hard way i'm afraid...if my results have been totally opposite those of 2013, it's also because i have found a way to produce some income on the side...cover the main expenses and take a ton of weight off my shoulders.

Anyhow...as far as the model is concerned, i've fortunately worked out another model, that gives me the possibility to enter really close to the source of a move. Just like a trade on GbpAud from a while back that i mentioned a couple of pages ago. Basically I not only look for the continuation bets, which require a trending state to be available; i can also "fade" evident swing levels/flips/imbalance zones like the recent 1.3700 on the euro and 1.6570 on GbpUsd. Basically all it takes is for price to test the area, recharge, take another stab at the area and it the momentum is diverging from price, you got yourself a keen entry opportunity

It's working like a charm for me, and it is allowing me to gradually move into the "strategy" perspective.

Where trading was initially a "pull the trigger and you're only as good as your last punt" thing, now it's becomming "find the appropriate strategy and milk it...try to get your timing right but no worries if you can't get it right too often, as long as your strategy is good"

Hope you're all holding up well this year with your trading endeavours!

[jcpfx]

Hello everyone,

for any that may be around into this Easter weekend, i have a question that goes way back.

Earlier in the thread, Joe had introduced the momentum triggers. I think there were a few of them today, on EurUsd/GbpUsd/Crude and i played crude because of the higher volatility, and because it was an evident build up to a breakout on the hourly charts too.



My question is: the evolution of the thread has hovered towards larger pullback plays in line with the bias, and this method has given me an edge in 2014. However, there are moments, like today, where price is honouring the bias and is in consolidation mode..and on the micro frames makes a move right to/slightly below a momentum level, consolidates or pulls back without violating the prior swing (like EurUsd 15Min today) and then break in line with the bias and go on a stop rampage.

I have been actively sstudying the importance of stop levels in 2014 and that's why the momentum triggers sometimes appeal to me even if i have traded maybe 3 momentum pops this year (because i do not yet know how to filter them properly).

Do you have any comments/suggestions as to:

1) whether anyone still plays momentum moves?
2) what the background looks like before a momentum move is high probability?
3) any trigger considerations?

Thanks guys health & wealth to you all. You're all pretty much responsible for where i am in my trading currently.