Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

I spend far more time sidelined than I do active these days, but then I've become very choosy indeed about what I place my money on, which is a direct result of the market teaching me hard lessons about triggering lower probability opportunities & not paying sufficient (fundamental) attention to what's playing out around me & influencing the market momentum/volatility.

I really appreciate the empathy there, spotfx. Since on the forum recently it seems i'm about the only person experiencing stops, it makes me wonder what exactly I'm missing. It may very well be the fact that I still can't wait on the sidelines long enough.

Ok, I admit that I thought the EurUsd would have been "playable" today, given that the Troika forced an agreement out of them and there was a nice recovery overnight. 1.2980/90 zone looked good to me, and a 1-2-3 was formed between 9 am and 10 am this morning (CET). Went in the money 15 pips and then barreled down.

At the same time, GbpUsd was pulling back & I was feeling "safer" of course on Gbp since it moved well all the way into today. 1.5210 & 1.5170/90 were my zones. I had planned to risk much less off of a trigger from 1.5210 then 1.5170/90 but my experience has told me that if price consolidates overnight, the odds are with a continuation trigger as long as the o/n low holds it's ground. The reaction today off 1.5210 was something i've seen in the past & the IB on the 15Min chart breached to the upside got me in. Again, +10 pips before crumbling.

There was another good setup today on UsdCad off 1.0220s, which I diddn't play (something was evidently wrong today with me). Even this setup would have gone in & out of the money..going nowhere.

What could I have observed that may have kept me still? The USD index, which found bids after closing it's 82.20s-82.70s gap today. But who knew?

[midgely88]

I think virtually everyone here can empathize with that, I know I can.
There isn't anyone who hasn't been there jcp, no-one escapes the frustrations or disappointments especially when either first starting out or attempting to find their way into a fresh approach.

Hear hear.
Two steps forward three steps back is how I remember my first foray into this endeavour.
I've very nearly packed it in twice & experienced a 32% drawdown at one point before stabalising & slowly but gingerly grinding back to parity.
I still encounter brick walls, but don't panic anymore because I know that as long as I don't lose control of my risk limits & refrain from revenge trading I'll work through the slippery patches.
My confidence is much stronger now than it was even 6 months ago & that only comes with familiarity of your appraoch & style.

Since on the forum recently it seems i'm about the only person experiencing stops, it makes me wonder what exactly I'm missing. It may very well be the fact that I still can't wait on the sidelines long enough?

You're not missing anything from what I can see.
We all experience stop outs & frustrating set backs. I do all the time.
Last month I dropped or broke even 5 bets in a row, which accounted for nearly half of my usual monthly total.
I ended just 2.6% up on the entire month.

You're predominantly a day trader jcp so the focus is going to be much more amplified for you than it is for guys who only trigger 1 or 2 bets per week.
Plus you're working through a very steep learning curve attempting to find your balance trading a relatively fresh approach.
It's been suggested to you a few times before, that it takes a lot of trial & error + time to become comfortable & competent adjusting your view & outlook.
If you're anything like most folks who haven't enjoyed the benefits of an industry trained background, then you're going to face lots more days like today I'm afraid.

There was another good setup today on UsdCad off 1.0220s, which I diddn't play (something was evidently wrong today with me).
Even this setup would have gone in & out of the money..going nowhere.

I was tracking that pair too, but the stochs were hooking up off 20 into the european open when price turned around at c1.0230 so I let it pass.
The 60m is my primary template & I only take entries now when the stochs are lining up in sync on that timeframe first.

What could I have observed that may have kept me still?

I've no idea.
I don't think, analyse or make decisions like you & you don't think, analyse or make the same types of decisions the way spotfx or Jimmy or Carll does.
We're all different & influenced based solely on our experience levels, skill sets, style & risk profiles I guess.

This is one tough slog & I'm beginning to realise the real meaning behind the term; trading is simple but isn't easy!

[jcpfx]

I really appreciate the support, Midgely. And gosh...fighting back from a -32% is really an accomplishment! Since march 2012 I've learned a lot, discarded most of what I learned and got to this forum in october with the basics covered, but without a setup & without consistency. Things are gradually changing but I still have to grow into the approach.

I hope my continuous posts & views & rants aren't a bother.

It just gets lonely sometimes sitting in front of a couple of screens!

[Se7en]

I hope my continuous posts & views & rants aren't a bother.

Nah, don't stress it.

Posts & views is what the forum & thread is all about. If you can't share those whenever you want then what's the point?!
Better to shake the odd rant out on here than rage at the market & risk damaging your account....now that definitely wouldn't be cool

[jcpfx]

Happy Holidays to all! Enjoy the long weekend!

[jcpfx]

Going into next week, my focus will be on the pairs showing the most evident trending motion:

1) EurJpy Long
2) GbpJpy Long
3) EurAud Long
4) GbpAud Long
5) EurCad Long
6) GbpCad Long

My view of the futures pairs is a plain Eur Long, Gbp Long, Jpy Short, Aud Short scenario after all.

Have a great weekend and catch you on Monday!

[xerb]

Judging by the Tokyo kick-off it's looking promising for one or two tasty pullback/continuation opportunities from the above selection headed into this week's action.
I've still got AUD/NZD up there on my A list & put AUD/USD back on the radar when it pulled back from slipping through 1.04 on Thursday & failed to push back above 1.0450.

[jcpfx]

Judging by the Tokyo kick-off it's looking promising for one or two tasty pullback/continuation opportunities from the above selection headed into this week's action.
I've still got AUD/NZD up there on my A list & put AUD/USD back on the radar when it pulled back from slipping through 1.04 on Thursday & failed to push back above 1.0450.

Morning Xerb,

I agree on AudUsd (I don't normally have AudNzd on my watchlist but will take a peek later!). This morning, given it's post-NFP monday, I felt inclined only to take a small bet on EurUsd. I liked it's overnight action better than EurAud as it had a nice swing low in 2960s. I took the 15Min hook with entry @ 1.2970 and got out at 1.2995 where it was showing exhaustion + stoch was oversold. My stop was below the swing low, at 1.2960 so the reward to risk was acceptable for a monday morning coin flip.

I am aware, however, that it was not a really high odds play also because the 1H stoch had not yet reached 20.

Hope you're doing well on your selection of pairs! Good Luck!

[jcpfx]

Morning traders,

does anyone have a view on GbpAud this morning? I took a long @ 1.4645, stop 1.4620, Profit 1.4735... Also EurAud looks ok (but has not set up properly yet).

Thanks & Good luck!

[Sarah Foster]

It's finding some support at this 1.4615-30 prior zone of previous resistance this morning jcp, so at least it has that going for it.
Personally, I'd prefer to see some evidence of sub hourly trending above today's early tokyo highs, especially following yesterday's steep decline, but that specific type of technical detail is always going to be influenced by personal preferences.

If a set up ticks all your boxes then you're ok to pull the trigger!