"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun May 24, 2015 4:41 pm

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Dear all forum users!

As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/15

Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

Thank you for working with TradeFort and welcome to the international brokerage Fort Financial Services!

Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

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ValdisFFS
 
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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon May 25, 2015 5:57 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar finished the last week on a positive note. The new week for the dollar also began with its consolidation. The core inflation indicator (Core CPI) came out 0.1% better than traders had expected which increased the demand for the US dollar. There has been the US trend reversal and during summer we may expect new USDX highs. Against this negative background the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased and consolidated by the end the day.

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, still the market was not surprised. The stimulating base remained at the same level while the GDP forecast was raised up by 1% for the current year. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 120.65, but after the US inflation data output bulls were able to bring the situation under control. As a result, the trading day ended with a slight correction after the quotations growth.

In this context, during this week we may expect the downtrend continuation. The previous day was marked by the calm trading amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the banking weekend on the occasion of t he Germany, the UK and the US public holidays.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market took positively the US dollar inflation release. The Core CPI index rose up by 0.1% to 1.8% on the annual basis while the CPI came out as it was expected in the negative area -0.2%. The US Treasury bond yields have increased that point out to the expectations about the Fed monetary policy changes.

After two days consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1150 the downward trend has been continued. Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.1050 amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The liquidity was very low amid the UK and the US public holidays and in this regard, we had a horizontal trend.

Last week the British pound fell against the dollar by more than 200 points. The price reduction was on the high volume and led to the price output from the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5550 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5670 and 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese exporters felt confident enough in the first quarter and according to the April results, the low exchange rate indicates the positive trend continuation. Taking into account the profit taking on the long positions in the US stock market on Friday and the carry trade closing deals there was the AUD/JPY decrease. Given the fact that the US dollar bullish trend is gaining momentum – we should not count on the quotations strong decrease.

Buyers have tested and consolidated under the resistance level of 121.60. The level breakthrough was on the increased volume - bulls are now strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 121.60. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue May 26, 2015 7:14 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a rather quiet trade in the Forex market at the beginning of the week. The France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the USA public holidays are to blame. Among the major financial centers trades took place only in Tokyo and Hong Kong, but the main revenue comes from London and New York that rested on Monday.

As a result, there was a horizontal trend within the major currency pairs, but even against this background, the US dollar enjoyed moderate demand which confirms the US dollar bullish trend strength. Traders returned to the market yesterday, and the dollar rose significantly against major currencies.

The United States pleased traders with the moderately positive macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders report came out within the forecasted medians amid the weak car sales in April and the durable goods orders index excluding equipment transportation that was expected slightly better than the consensus forecast amid the employment and average earnings growth.

Investors reacted positively to the April US Core CPI growth which increased by 1.6% to 1.8% on the annual basis from the beginning of the year. There were rumors again in the market that the Fed was going to raise interest rates at the next meetings.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "Greek factor" once again stirs the euro-zone economy. Athens began to declare that they had no money for the June IMF tranche at the end of the last week. The debt market immediately reacted to this Greek bond yields increase relative to the German ones which also carries a risk for the single European currency.

The beginning of the week was calm amid the increased volumes and low volatility. The price reduced downwards through inertia. Then the pair decreased amid the dollar strengthening. There is not support from the sellers’ part. But due to the fact that the trade continues towards the downward channel bears are still strong.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1050 further on we expect a fall to 1.0790.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure amid the US dollar global upward trend. It is worth noting that the rate of its decline will be less than the euro decrease. It is due to the fact that the EUR/GBP downward trend got some support for the British pound.

The pound broke through and consolidated below the support level of 1.5460. Trading volumes are in the decreased zone and the price is trading around 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5390, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5300.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

It was noted the bullish sentiment predominance within the pair dollar/yen. All the key financial centers worked yesterday as usual and in this regard there was the upward trend continuation within the US dollar. Expectations about the federal funds rate increase reinforce the dollar bullish sentiment. Everything is quite simple: the Fed, unlike the Bank of Japan is set to tighten monetary policy which deprives the Japanese yen of trumps for the quotations growth.

The last six months there was a quite large-scale flat. The price was traded in the side corridor of 117.50 - 121.60 for a long time which was formed after the sharp price rise. Yesterday the pair showed a strong increase and broke through the resistance level of 122.30.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 124.30.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed May 27, 2015 6:28 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.37. Yesterday only the United States released a portion of macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders came out slightly worse than the forecasted medians while the Conference Board consumer confidence index exceeded the traders’ expectations. The US Treasuries short-term and long-term bond yields have been reduced after these statistics publication that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD finished with the quotations decrease, the pair USD/JPY has increased.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the primary market home sales volume increased more than expected in April. According to the revised data, the index rose by 6.8% to the annual rate of 517,000 from the mark of 484,000 in March. According to the original data, economists had expected the primary market housing sales would increase to the level of 509,000 from 481,000 the previous month.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and Germany 10-year government bonds yields increased which is a negative factor for the euro. The German and the Greek bond yields have also grown upwards.

Athens has already made it clear to its creditors that they cannot fulfill their obligations and the debt market dynamics signals to us that at the moment the compromise is not found.

The euro activity has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The downward trend is developing amid the increased volumes - sellers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050, 1.1150.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States and the United Kingdom did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and it is necessary to pay attention to the debt and commodity markets’ dynamics. The UK 10-year bond yields are declining in the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will put pressure on the British pound. Today the Britain will publish the WFP.

The downward trend has strengthened after the strong support level of 1.5390 breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.5390 serves as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5460, 1.5550.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy report was published, however, the market has already received all of the key benchmarks from the Japanese regulator. The pair dollar/yen came out from the two-month consolidation towards the main trend and the global demand for the US dollar indicates that this trend is not yet complete and will be continued. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan bipolar monetary policy which support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the sellers may go to 122.40 and 121.60.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu May 28, 2015 6:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was once again in demand but at the end of the day it lost some ground against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.44. Besides the UK GDP assessment and the number of the US jobless claims, there was not published any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Investors are still actively increasing long positions, getting rid of its main competitors. However the euro recovered some lost positions. The commodity market is also under pressure – the Brent crude fell below $ 63/barrel and set the four-week minimum.

The jobless claims report did not please traders with the positive data. The four-week average dropped significantly last week which with the Conference Board consumer confidence release allowed us to count on the data output a little bit better than the forecasted medians. Nevertheless, the date came out more then forecasted medians.

The Japanese yen quickly fell to the eight-year lows against the US dollar growth. According to the Bank of Japan April meeting minutes, the time allocated to achieve the two-percent inflation rate can be extended.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Nearly the whole week the euro finishes the trades in the "red zone". The pair slightly corrected yesterday however currently there are no factors that are capable to change the negative trend. The debt market dynamics is now clearly on the bears’ side. The German bond yields are declining relative to the US and the UK counterparts.

The downward trend was developing within the euro amid the increased volume that indicates that sellers are interested to reduce the price in the short term. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

We got the UK GDP assessment for the first quarter. The unemployment rate reduction with the private consumption and industrial production growth in March allows us to count on the data output within the forecasted medians. Besides the quarterly economic forecast, the Bank of England lowered the GDP growth rate for 2015. The index came out at the level of + 0.3% q/q + 2.4% y/y without revision.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.5465, the British pound continued its decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.5390. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300, 1.5200.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week the Japanese yen is the weakest of the main four currencies. The debt market dynamics indicates the Japan and the US bond yields increase which supported demand for the dollar. This week we received the US jobless claims moderately negative data publication.

The US dollar two weeks growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 122.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is correcting after this week decline. Earlier the franc declined amid the dollar growth as many traders believe that this year the Fed still will resort to raising interest rates. Investors also monitor the situation in Spain and Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun May 31, 2015 3:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Jun 01, 2015 6:06 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was declining amid the GDP second assessment first quarter weak data. The final figure was revised into the negative side to the level of 0.7%. In the light of this the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.94. Besides the US weak data, the Germany positive statistics contributed to the quotations growth. Retail sales rose up by 1.7% in April that encouraged traders to long. Still ISM supported the dollar and the pair EUR/USD decreased by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase, but after the US GDP weak data it was able to recover partially some lost ground. Nevertheless, the trades ended in the negative region- quotations have declined.

The Japan inflation and industrial production positive statistics did not bring the desired dividends to the Japanese yen. The powerful bullish trend within the pair USD/JPY pair is continued - according to the trades results, quotations have increased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro enjoyed a moderate demand amid the Germany inflation positive report. The moderate wage and the energy prices growth with the unemployment reduction point out to the inflationary pressure growth in the Old World leading economies. The PMI manufacturing revised index by the Markit Eurozone fell to the level of 52.2 in May against 52.3 the previous month. The analysts’ forecast was 52.3. The ISM manufacturing index showed a growth to the level of 52.8. The dollar strengthened amid this data.

The euro was correcting against the US dollar. The price growth is on the higher volumes. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0790 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0670.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing index rose up to 52 in May compared with 51.9 the previous month and the forecast of 52.5.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy latest minutes pointed out that we should expect the UK GDP growth in the second quarter and therefore, we may count on the positive data output as industrial production is the cyclical economic indicator.

The two-week pound decline against the US dollar stopped at the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last Friday we saw sales in the US and the Japanese stock market which indicates the lack of demand for the risky assets. The debt market also points to the upward trend completion: the US and Japan negative bond yields shows a decline. There was the positive manufacturing sector business activity report published from the ISM. This points out to the bullish sentiment prevalence.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 125.50., the next on is the level of 127.00

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Jun 02, 2015 4:54 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week the US dollar began with a growth. However it fell yesterday - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. Earlier it showed a decrease amid the US ISM manufacturing sector positive report.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was under pressure after the UK manufacturing sector PMI weak data. Nevertheless, the trading day ended with the quotations increase. The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The US production sector ISM index positive data point out to the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter which accelerated the pair USD/JPY growth. However the pair by the end of the day had decreased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone leading economies have already reported about the CPI growth by the end of May which may support the euro demand. On the other hand, we cannot ignore the debt market dynamics. The Greece and the Germany bond yields increase indicates the investors’ negative expectations about the "Greek question" decisions ‘perspectives.

This month Athens has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and the first payment is scheduled for the 5th of June.

The trading was around the level of 1.0925. Yesterday the euro sharply grew and broke through the resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1460 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector business climate indicator pointed out that the Bank of England was quite optimistic in their GDP estimates for the second quarter of this year. The construction sector PMI index was published the other day.

The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.5200 was followed by attempts of its breakthrough. On the volume sellers consolidated at the mark of 1.5200 but they did not break it downwards. The pair increased at the end of the trades and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing sector business climate report points out to the industrial growth. There was noted the orders growth in the 11 sectors and the employment growth in 14 sectors, including the oil sector which in recent months has experienced hard times because of the energy low prices.

The resistance level of 124.30 did not stop the upward trend. The continuous consolidation below the level was followed by breakthrough. However the consolidation above the broken level was short-term and the pair fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.50 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 122.40, further then towards 121.60.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:54 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar came under a sales wave – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 95.90. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased after the euro area inflation positive data as well as the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

It was expected that the ADP employment report as well as the services sector ISM index will be able to please the traders with the positive data. However the services sector ISM index came out worse then forecasted median and the ADP employment report – better then it was expected. The ISM manufacturing sector business climate index points out to the US economy growth which will contribute to the dollar increase.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid short positions profit taking after the UK PMI construction sector positive releases.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh 12-year high near the mark of 125.05 and after that traders started to close long positions. However after a slight decrease as a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has shown strong growth amid the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

The euro is supported by the number of factors. The German and the US government bond yields reduction. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields are also declining amid the positive expectations about the Greece agreement with its creditors. The US April trade balance report pleased investors with strong data.

The resistance level of 1.1150 breakthrough was followed by the euro active growth against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Markit Economics services sector PMI index release. The current indicator is higher than the annual average which indicates this economic sector growth. However the data came out worse then forecasted medians.

The service sector ISM index negative data may contribute to the US Treasury bond yields decrease amid the US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening expectations.

The pound two-week decline was followed by the correction formation. The corrective price increase was on the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5300 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5200, further then towards 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen received fewer dividends of all majors. Investors are increasing their long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation. The manufacturing sector ISM index points out to the positive dynamics continuation in a series of the US macro-economic reports.

The Japan and the US negative bond yields increase may put pressure on the Japanese yen.

Having consolidated for a short time below the support level of 124.30, the price returned above the level, breaking through it through down - top.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:29 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the ECB inflation forecast revision for 2015. However it slightly fell by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day after the service sector PMI index weak data release when the pair fell to the lowest level this year that confirms the UK low economic growth. The pair fell after a strong growth. There was published the GDP growth forecast in the second quarter to the level of 0.7% according to the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The data about the managers’ mood in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate that this indicator will be below the forecast level. It should also be noted that the Brent crude lost more than 2% amid the negative expectations for the OPEC summit.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the risky assets demand. The carry trade transactions again put pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen devaluation has a positive impact on Japanese exporters - in April industrial production increased by 1% while in May the manufacturing PMI rose above 50%.

The US initial jobless claims showed positive release. The May index fell to 8000 to 276 000. The forecast growth was 279,000.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD had renewed the maximums and formed a consolidation. The ECB raised this year inflation forecast by 0.3% which caused the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction. In its turn, this factor will provide some support to the euro. However, as the day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics the market showed some stabilization in anticipation of the Friday US labor market report.

The euro has been actively strengthening against the US dollar for three days amid the increased volumes. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, buyers strengthened their positions. Nevertheless the pair fell to this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050 and 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. Traders did not expect any changes. The monetary regulator has repeatedly stated that it was ready to ease the monetary policy in case of the deflation risk, but now the situation is generally stable. During the first summer days the UK 10-year government bond yields showed an increase that point out to the UK inflation expectations growth.

The pound showed a strong growth but now we observe a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating and closed the trades with a slight decrease. The Bank of Japan governor gave his speech which supported the Japanese yen. Mr. Kuroda noted the inflation expectations growth amid the wages and energy prices increase. The Japan 10-year bond yields have increased by 12 basis points for the last month.

The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen went into a prolonged consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50 and 122.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown while the dollar has reached its minimum level for the week against the euro and suffered losses against several other major currencies after the ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged while the German Bunds bond yields continued to grow. The dollar had strengthened only at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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