"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:50 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.02.2017


Euro

General overview

The currency pair EUR/USD grew taking advantage of the weak US dollar. The dollar was under pressure since the middle of the trading week amid the FOMC minutes and the new Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin's statements on tax reform.

Current situation

Despite the recent growth the EUR/USD pair remained in a downward channel. Buyers just managed to lead the price to its upper limit. The overnight’s recovery attempt stalled just under 1.0600 barrier in the early European hours. The pair’s upside lost some vigour finding fresh offers around the level. Buyers tried to break above 1.0600 ahead of the NY opening. The price broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart and stayed above the moving average. 100-EMA crossed 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

A move above 1.0600 will support buyers sending the market to 1.0630 – 1.0650. A return to 1.0550 may open the way for a move to 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The British pound maintained its bid tone flirting with its recent highs. The British pound was able to strengthen amid positive BBA Mortgage Approvals and the US dollar retracement.

Current situation

GBP/USD did not have enough momentum to reach the 1.2600 resistance. Bulls stopped at the mark 1.2565 being unable to push the spot higher. The pair stayed in a tight range of 50 pips during the European session. A bout of fresh selling interest emerged in the European morning. The Cable declined against the dollar heading towards 1.2500. The pair rebounded from 200-EMA and broke 50 and 100-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The British pound continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50 and 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 100-EMA maintained its bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator lost upward strength and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The bullish tone is likely to remain intact. A move above 1.2550 would revive bullishness towards 1.2600 – 1.2650.

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Yen

General overview

USD/JPY continued its smooth slide on Friday. The current situation on the currency market is not good for the US dollar, as the Fed recent minutes indicated small chances of rate hike in March.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair maintained its offered tone on Friday. Buyers reversed a minor portion of their losses in the night. Traders pushed the price to 113.00 but failed to break above the hurdle. Sellers returned control in the late Asian session, pushed the US dollar lower and erased all buyers' gains in the early European session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100-EMA downwards and moved lower. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while 100-EMA turned neutral. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 112.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar fell after the Governor of the RBA Phillip Lowe made it clear that the Central Bank did not intend to raise interest rates in the nearest time.

Current situation

Despite the overall positive trend bulls seem have no desire to move higher. After posting recent highs at 0.7739 the price softened and returned to 0.7700 where remained in a consolidation stance during the night session. The rise in the dollar demand made the AUD break below 0.7700 pushing the Australian currency towards 0.7650. According to 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA. All the moving averages pointed higher. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650.

The histogram declined which is a sell signal. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, AUD/USD needs to rise back and hold above 0.7700. The current decline we consider corrective. It is a good opportunity to buy on dips. Only a break below 0.7650 will ease the upward pressure. A move below 0.7550 will be able to neutralize the buying pressure and open the way to further weakness.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold reached three-month highs on Friday amid the dollar in the light of the latest FOMC minutes analysis. The world political instability increased the demand for risk-free assets as well.

Current situation

Spot gold remained on strong bullish footing on Friday. After an Asian flat the price got an upward impetus in the European morning. Strong bullish interest helped the price to break 1250 and drove the price towards 1260 afterwards. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continues developing well above the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance exists at 1260, the support stands at 1250 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI went upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

Trading recommendations

If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 1260 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

Black gold slightly declined amid the crude inventories report. According to the Kuwait business paper research, OPEC and non-OPEC countries kept their promise to reduce oil production only by 86% instead of promised 94%.

Current situation

The tone was negative in the oil market on Friday. The price reversed some losses in the night. Buyers returned the benchmark to 56.66 dollars per barrel where Brent caught fresh offers and moved lower. Sellers returned the price to 56.50 on European open and continued driving black gold lower during the day. Oil prices reached 56.00 ahead of the NY opening. According to 4 hours chart the price tested the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50-EMA bounced off the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed higher while 100-EMA turned neutral. The price was above the moving averages in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations


A downtrend will start as soon, as the price drops below the support level 55.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks dropped on Friday. Investors stayed focused on the earnings reports and political instability in Europe and the United States.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the open on Friday. Sellers maintained control after the gap and pushed DAX lower. The index broke 11900 and 11800 in the mid-European session. The benchmark continued its slide afterwards and reached 11735 ahead of the NY opening. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed higher in the same timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below the support at 11800 we could see the index extending its declines down to 11700.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

NASDAQ turned bearish on Friday. The index was slowly declining in the night and accelerated its slide with European markets opening. Sellers drove the index to 5300 in the mid-European session. The benchmark tested the 50-EMA. The moving averages pointed higher in the in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 5340, the support comes in at 5300.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator lost upward strength and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The price eyes support at 5300 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 5260.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:08 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.02.2017

Euro

General overview

According to the European commission research held on Monday, investors became more confident about the Eurozone, as it was expected in February. Industry confidence grew, while manufacturing expectations posted losses.

Current situation

After a sharp sell-off on Friday the euro seems to have found a strong support in the 1.0550 region. The level rejected the spot which managed to reverse a half of Friday's losses. European buyers continued pushing the price higher approaching the 1.0600 level in the first part of the day. The pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart and stayed below the moving average. The 50-EMA turned upwards, 100-EMA kept heading lower, while 200-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

EUR/USD awaits for the US data for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, any recovery is likely to be considered a good selling opportunity. A move below 1.0550 would revive bearishness towards 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound dropped versus the majors following the news that the UK Government plans to hold a potential Scotland independence referendum. None of the officials commented on it, but even the rumor made the cable to drop down.

Current situation

Sellers lost strength on Friday after testing the 1.2400 level which rescued buyers once again. After touching the handle the price remained within its region in the night. European traders started to push the price higher in the early trades but did not advance much and returned to the support in the mid European session The price broke all the moving averages downwards and continued trading below them in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 50 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 1.2400, GBP/USD will likely target the 1.2370 mark.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar slightly recovered from two-week lows in Asian session on Monday. However, the US dollar lacked an upward impulse awaiting for Donald Trump's speech regarding his tax reform.

Current situation

After meeting a barrier at 112.00 the price bounced off the level. Buyers failed to advance far from the handle and stayed around it the fist part of the day. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, while 100-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair needs to regain at least the 113.00 zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. Meanwhile we will sell until the spot is below the mentioned level.

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NZD/USD

Current situation

After a sell-off on Friday the kiwi remained neutral on Monday morning. Sellers met a barrier at 0.7200 and were struggling hard to break it during the European hours. The price was sandwiched between 200-EMA and 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA kept heading lower and touched the 200-EMA which kept pointed higher while 50-EMA turned neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 0.7150.

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XAU/USD

Current situation

Gold opened the week inside of a consolidation zone after Friday’s rally. The upward impetus lost strength around 1260 dollars per ounce. Buyers gave up their recent gains and had to retreat on the back of profit-taking. Sellers drove the price lower and reached 1255 in the mid European session. According to 4 hours chart the price was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance exists at 1260, the support stands at 1250 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

A close below the support at 1250 could see XAU/USD extend its declines down to 1240. Nevertheless, the upward structure remained in place. The lower limit of the upward channel lies around 1240. Buyers may find fresh bids around the level.
The 1260 is a big psychological level which means that we are bound to see some thick action around it.

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Brent

General Overview

Oil prices recovered back to the eight week highs on Monday as investors are still confident that OPEC's output cuts would outweigh an increase in the United States crude inventories. Moreover, OPEC's efforts to hold the oil prices from falling were supported by the reports from China.

Current situation

Oil prices rebounded from the oversold zone in the Asian session. Sellers failed to regain 55.50 and gave the way to buyers. Buyers took a chance and had reversed all Friday' losses by the Monday's noon. Traders pushed the price higher and pierced 56.50 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the upward trajectory lost its strength, the price bounced from the level and edged lower. The price tested the 200-EMA, rebounded upwards in the 4 hours chart. Brent broke 100-EMA and 50-EMA upwards afterwards. The 50-EMA and 200-EMA turned upwards, while 100-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

When we break the level 56.50 the support 55.50 comes back into play.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks opened mixed on Monday following the inspiring reports of some companies and Intesa Sanpaolo rally. However, a sharp fall of London and Deutsche Stock Exchange limited stocks advance.

Current situation

DAX gapped higher at the open on Monday. Buyers failed to advance beyond the level and after posting the daily high at 11867 the price reversed its direction. Sellers retuned the price to 11800 filling the gap in the mid European session. The index rebounded from 100-EMA upward and tested 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages turned neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800.
s
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A sharp breakout above 11800 could spark a further incline towards 11700 in the coming sessions.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Monday as investors waited for President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress. The president had to reveal his plans regarding taxes, trade and public investment.

Current situation

S&P500 posted fresh all-times high in the Asian session on Monday. Buyers managed to lead the price to 2370 where the upward momentum lost its legs. Bulls gave up their gains and stepped away. Sellers led the benchmark lower and erased all buyers’ gains. The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA upwards. The price remained above the moving averages which were all pointing higher in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

We maintain our positive outlook for the index. The ongoing decline is just a correction. The index may weaken to 2350 where the lower limit of the upward channel lies. A break lower will ease the upward pressure towards 2340. A failure here will return rally towards 2370, en route 2380.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:54 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.03.2017

Euro

General overview

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell for the third month in a row as inflation rate slowed down both consumer demand and economic growth. The Eurozone non-manufacturing PMI dropped, although no one expected any changes.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downward channel on Friday. After finding barrier at 1.0500 the spot pulled back. Buyers reversed some losses overnight and pushed the euro to the upper limit of the downward channel. The major was unmoved in the morning. A fresh buying impetus emerged in the late European session when the price rallied to 1.0550. The moving averages pointed lower in the 4 hours chart. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0550, the support comes in at 1.0500.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.

Trading recommendations

After a close below the support at 1.0500 we could see EUR/USD extending its declines down to 1.0450. Meanwhile we expect some recovery based on profit-taking. The price may reach he upper limit of the downward channel in the coming sessions.

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Pound

General overview

The pound refreshed its six-week lows against the dollar amid negative UK non-manufacturing PMI and increasing expectations of March interest rate hike in the USA.

Current situation

The pound extended its consolidation phase in the Asia session on Friday. The price traded range-bound-to lower in a narrow range of 50 pips. Sellers became more active in the European morning and moved the pound to 1.2200. According to the 4 hours timeframe the price continued developing well below the moving averages. 50 and 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The moving averages pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings, and headed now south.

Trading recommendations

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension towards the level of 1.2200. The break of the last will open doors for more weakness towards 1.2150. Meanwhile we do not rule out a minor correction as the spot is heavily oversold. Buyers may lead the price to 1.2300 to ease some downward pressure.

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Yen

General overview

Japanese inflation rate and labor market supported the yen. The dollar declined on Friday amid profit taking after the recent rally.

Current situation

The pair remained in an uptrend on Friday. The US dollar traded around its recent highs. Buyers obviously took a pause allowing sellers to reverse some losses. The major slightly eased during the night trades. Sellers returned the currency pair to 114.00 where the major opened the European session. A fresh buying interest lifted the price to 114.50 in the noon. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was near overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The nearest target remains the resistance level of 115.00. Inability to post fresh highs may cause some profit taking towards 114.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The dollar slightly changed on Friday staying near seven-week highs against other majors. The increasing probability of the U.S. rate hike this month supported the dollar. The Janet Yellen’s testimony came into focus.

Current situation

The US dollar extended its winning steak on Friday. The major opened green and was able to post fresh highs at the European opening. After an Asian flat buyers became more active in the morning. They pushed the price higher and broke 1.3400. The USD/CAD pair maintained its bid tone afterwards conquering fresh highs. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 1.3470, the support comes in at 1.3400.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If buyers remain in the driver’s seat the next level to focus on is 1.3470. Conversely, the US dollar may retreat to the 1.3330 region.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices continued falling amid the growing expectation of the US rate hike and the dollar's growth.

Current situation

The technical picture presented a slightly bearish ton on Friday. Gold opened in red and continued losing ground afterwards. Sellers tested 1230 in the late Asian session. The handle shortly slowed down sellers. However, the spot accelerated its losses during European morning trade. Sellers broke the level and reached 1225 dollars per ounce afterwards. According to 4 hours chart the price crossed the 50 and 100-EMAs downwards and touched the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMA s turned lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

Should the gold recover ground and advance beyond the 1230 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 1240 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

Oil prices slightly rose on Friday morning due to the dollar's retreatment. However, Brent further growth was limited on the news that Russian oil production for February did change comparing to January.

Current situation

Brent found a solid support after two day decline. The mark 55.00 stopped sellers rejecting prices upwards in the night session. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following recent sell-off. The price was slowly recovering in the night and accelerated its growth in the morning. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA maintained its bearish slope while the 100 and 200 EMAs turned neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was near undervalued territory.

Trading recommendations

A recovery above the level of 55.50 will favor an advance up to the 56.50 region.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks opened in red amid the weak earnings reports including the one of the world's largest advertising holding WPP and a protective clothing manufacturer Berendsen.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the open. The price jumped to 12000 where it stayed in the morning. An upward impetus sent the price upward filling the gap in the late European session. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 12100, the support stands at 12000.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A sharp breakout below 12000 could spark a further decline towards 11950.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street was down at the open on Friday ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech.

Current situation

S&P500 had a negative start to the day. The price opened around 2380 and headed lower. Sellers were driving the price lower the night and finally stopped at 2375 where the index stayed the first part of the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the index was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A move below 2380 would revive bearishness towards 2360. However, we do not believe much in this scenario. The upward channel structure is still intact. The price was close to its lower boundary. That’s why we expect a rebound here and a return to 2400.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.03.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro rose amid the US dollar retracement as investors were taking profit after last week rally. The US dollar strengthened amid the expectations of the rate hike on the Fed meeting on the 14-15 March. The presidential elections in France are still in focus.

Current situation

The pair remained in a descending channel on Monday. Inability to break below 1.0500 returned some buying interest pushing the spot higher. Moreover, a soft tone around the US dollar opened the doors for the current euro recovery. The single European currency rallied through several levels until it reached the upper limit of the range around 1.0650. The hurdle stopped bulls for now who seem to have started a consolidation phase. A wave of fresh selling pressure emerged in the late European session driving the major below 1.0600 to 1.0580. According to 4 hours chart the euro tested the 100-EMA in the first part of the day. The 50-EMA kept heading higher, the 100-EMA turned downwards while the 200-EMA remained mild bearish in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

The histogram declined which is a sell signal. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

When we stay below the level 1.0600 the support 1.0550 will come back into play.

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Pound

General overview

The market was low volatile on Monday amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. However, the pound remained weak against the dollar following the investors' optimism of the rate hike at the March meeting.

Current situation

The pair presented a modest bearish tone on Monday. The pound was able to recover up to 1.2300 last week which appeared to be a tough nut to break. The level stopped bulls and after a night flat the cable came under renewed selling pressure during the European morning trade. Bears tightened their grip and pushed the price lower away from the 1.2300 resistance. The spot had reached 1.2250 by the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below its moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will remain in red figures. All eyes are right now at the support level 1.2200.

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Yen

General overview

North Korea had set up rockets to the Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. This action hiked anxiety level in geopolitical environment making investors buy yen to escape the risk.

Current situation

The USD/JPY opened bearish on Monday. The pair headed lower in the Asian session and continued losing ground in the European morning. Sellers reached 113.80 first and after a brief pause continued moving the major lower and reached 113.60 in the late European session. The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA touched the 200-EMA and turned neutral. The 200-EMA also was neutral while the 50-EMA turned upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its sell tone in the short term. The 113.50 area stopped sellers to move lower for now. A cut through the mark will turn attention to the 113.00 level.

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AUD/USD


General overview

According to the Australian Bureau of statistics, retail sales for January slightly grew. However, household spending growth increased concerns of the RBA. The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes will be released on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting the regulator to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.

Current situation

After a sharp sell-off on Friday buyers found fresh strength to recover some gains on Monday. The 0.7550 handle stopped sellers' advance rejecting the spot afterwards. The AUD was recovering the whole night and extended its recovery in the European session. Buyers accelerated their advance in the morning and tested 0.7600 in the late European session. The pair lacked upward momentum in the noon
and had to pause choosing the right direction. According to 4 hours chart the major stayed below the moving averages. The 50-EMA kept pointed lower, the 100-EMA and 200-EMAs turned neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI moved north which confirms the current upward momentum.

Trading recommendations

The AUD is likely to extend its weakness in the short-term. If the spot stays below 0.7600 the AUD/USD pair may extend its bearishness to 0.7550. Alternatively, the 0.7600 resistance will need to be retested for support before a price can rally towards 0.7650.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices traded in green on Monday amid the increased demand for risky assets following the news about the launch of four North Korean ballistic missiles.

Current situation


The gold recovery stalled around 1235 dollars per ounce on Monday. Buyers did not find any reason to move the price further. The precious metal was slowly declining the night and the morning and reached 1230 in the noon. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 200-EMA upwards and then was sandwiched between this moving average and the 100-EMA. The moving averages were neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1230 would open the way to 1220 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

Investors' concerns about the economic growth in China weighed on crude oil futures on Monday. Traders are waiting for the Fed's rate hike next week, which pressuring oil futures amid the dollar growth. Traders are also awaiting weekly reports on US crude inventories on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Current situation

Brent opened red on Monday. Sellers were leading the benchmark downwards and managed to pierce 55.50 in the late Asian session. However, bears failed to reclaim the level and the price returned above the tested handle. The pressure remained intact afterwards holding the spot around the support level. The price tested the 200-EMA and bounced off downwards in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA. The 50-EMA kept pointed lower while the 100-EMA and the 200-EMA were neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD formed signal to rise. The RSI oscillator consolidated within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bullish pressure in the upcoming sessions. The main buyers’ goal is the level at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks fell on Monday following mining shares decline amid concerns on the China's economic growth weakening and the possible Fed rate hike.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the weekly open. The index jumped over 12000 and reached 11922 in the late European trades. The benchmark found fresh bids around the level lately the day and bounced off it. DAX returned to the opening prices afterwards and remained there the first part of the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the index tested the 50-EMA. The price was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A move below 11900 will confirm the presence of sellers. DAX may ease further and reach 11850 afterwards.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

The overall picture remained unchanged on Monday. The benchmark stayed in a sideways channel trading in a tight range the first part of the day. The index gapped downwards and reached the lower limit of the range at the daily open. Sellers failed to extend their gains after the gap being only able to reach the mark 5347. The mark rejected NASDAQ upwards which returned to the opening prices in the European morning. According to 4 hours chart the benchmark tested the 50-EMA downwards and remained above the moving averages. The 50-EMA was neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 5380, the support comes in at 5340.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A break below the level of 5340 might force the index to resume its downward trajectory towards 5300.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.03.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro did not react to weak Factory Orders in Germany. Meanwhile, the single European currency remained under pressure amid uncertainty around the Presidential elections in France. The possible Fed rate hike weighed on the euro as well.

Current situation

The undertone for Euro was clearly negative on Tuesday. The price was slowly growing in the night session and accelerated its recovery in the morning. Buyers tested 1.0600 in the European morning and were struggling with the level afterwards. However, the upward impetus lost its strength in the late European session. The price pushed away from the level 1.0600 and headed lower erasing buyers’ night gains. The pair broke the 100-EMA downwards and tested the 50-EMA afterwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

The MACD histogram declined which indicates buyers’ strength weakening. RSI moved south which confirms the current downward momentum.

Trading recommendations

We believe the EUR/USD pair will continue moving lower. A daily close below 1.0550 would risk 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure as the market was rather concerned about the USA plans to react to North Korean latest actions. Besides, traders waited for House of Lords final decision on Article 50.

Current situation

The pound remained under pressure due to the bid sentiment around the dollar. The overnight’s recovery attempt stalled around the 1.2250 mark. Bears regained control in the late Asian session and drove the major lower. European sellers continued to grind the spot towards 1.2200 and touched the level post London open. According to 4 hours chart the major was below the moving averages which were all pointing lower. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The short term picture favors the downside. A close below 1.2200 will trigger losses towards 1.2100.

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Yen

General overview

The US dollar grew on strong hopes that the Fed will hike its rate this month. All eyes are on BoJ's GDP report which is expected with upbeat figures.

Current situation

The USD/JPY maintained its consolidation phase in the early trades on Tuesday. The major preserved its neutral-to-bearish stance and traded in a tight range fluctuating between 114.00 and 113.80. About of fresh buying interest emerged in the late European session. Buyers moved the price upwards and struggled with 114.00 level. The 4 hours chart showed that the spot remained above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50-EMA maintained its bullish slope while the 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI was neutral to bullish.

Trading recommendations

Once we break above the 114.00 level, we think that the 115.00 level will be next.

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NZD/USD

General overview

Investors’ attention now turns to Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in London. Milk price is likely might decrease by 7%-9% which might affect the NZD as the national currency highly depend on the milk production.

Current situation

The market sentiment remained negative on Tuesday. The NZD opened on a stronger note around 0.6980. Buyers managed to lift the major to 0.7015 where the upward trajectory stalled. Sellers seized control and returned the Kiwi to the opening prices erasing all its early trades. The pair maintained its gloomy trend afterwards heading towards 0.6950. According to 4 hours chart the currency pair continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower. The resistance is highlighted 0.7000, the support comes in at 0.6950.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The NZD is likely to remain well offered in the short-term. A further extension to 0.6950 is not ruled out.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Growing confidence around Fed rate hike action kept weighing on the yellow metal holding the spot around three week lows.

Current situation

Gold maintained the ask tone on Tuesday. After a sharp sell-off on Monday sellers stepped away giving the way to buyers in the night session. However, the last did not hurry to take control preferring to wait for fresh market movers. Thus, the price was trading in a directionless mode around 1225 the first part of the day. Sellers returned in the noon and drove the precious metal towards 1220 dollars per ounce. The price broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA turned lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 1220 dollars per ounce we could see the XAU/USD pair extending down to the 1210 region during the next sessions.

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Brent

General Overview

Brent traded flat on Tuesday as investors were assessing prospect of production cuts against the US drilling activity growth.

Current situation

Brent traded mixed the first part of the day. The bearish momentum persisted in the night. The price slightly eased during the Asian session. Bulls regained control in the morning and pushed the price higher. After posting a daily low at 55.74 the benchmark erased all its losses in the morning and reached 56.20 in the noon. The 4 hours chart showed that the black gold bounced off the 200-EMA upwards and tested the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA turned upwards in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

A close above 56.50 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to the level of 57.00 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks were mostly unchanged on Tuesday. The main point of focus this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday.

Current situation

DAX remained in an upward channel on Tuesday. Sellers led the price to its lower limit but failed to continue its advance afterwards. The price bounced off 11900 and reversed almost all early losses. The benchmark tried to extend the recovery in the morning on Tuesday but did not succeed staying around the opening prices the first part of the day. According to 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA and hovered above it afterwards. The price continued developing well above the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After breaking 11950 the level of 11900 will come back to the radar.

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S&P500

Current situation

After a night sharp drop the index traded sideways during the European hours. The price was going up and down in a tight range fluctuating between 2370 and 2375. The price tested the 50-EMA but could not move lower in the 4 hours chart. S&P500 was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A cut below the 2380 mark will aim sellers at the 2360 level.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:03 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.03.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro was attracting everyone’s attention on Thursday in light of the ECB meeting. Investors expected the regulator to leave the rate unchanged. Investors believe the ECB won't risk ahead of important elections in Europe.

Current situation

Sellers managed to lead the price a bit lower in the night. However, after posting a daily low at 1.0524 the pair reversed its direction. A minor dollar retracement triggered some profit taking move following the pair's recent sell-off. Buyers pushed the price to 1.0550 in the morning and broke the level in the late European session. The price was below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.

Trading recommendations

The major is still in a downward channel and the single currency is still under pressure. After a close below the level of 1.0550 we could see EUR/USD extending its declines down to 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The British pound extended its weakness in the light of a stronger dollar and uncertainty around Brexit.

Current situation

After the night flat the price continued moving downwards on Thursday. The spot stayed in a tight range 1.2160-1.2150 in the night. Sellers became more active in the morning and led the major out of the sideways channel. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator held near oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The pair remains in red figures. The nearest sellers’ target is the support level 1.2100.

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Yen

General overview

The upbeat Chinese Consumer Price Index supported the US dollar on Thursday. Moreover, the greenback is well supported by a possible Fed rate hike action in March. However, this Friday's NFP report still matters.

Current situation

The undertone for USD is clearly positive. The pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Thursday. After Wednesday's rally the price pulled back a bit. Buyers allowed sellers to reverse some losses. However, a fresh buying interest emerged at the daily open. Buyers began returning the lost ground slowly and steady and had reversed all the recent losses by the European morning. Bulls continued advancing north and reached 115.00 in the noon. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA kept pointed higher while the 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We believe the US will extend its upward impulse in the short term. A further extension beyond 115.00 is not ruled out. 115.50 is the next profit target.

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AUD/USD


General overview

The AUD weakened amid a stronger dollar and disappointing Chinese inflation data.

Current situation

Sentiment remained negative on Thursday. Sellers maintained control and pushed the price lower. They moved slowly in the Asian session and accelerated in the morning. The AUD reached 0.7500 post European open. The major continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA was below the 100-EMA and crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator is near undervalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A firm break below 0.7500 handle would open 0.7450.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices kept losing ground trading around 8 week lows in the light of speculations that the Fed will hike the rate next week.

Current situation

Gold opened on a weaker note on Thursday. Sellers remained in driver's seat and pushed the price lower in the night session. The XAU/USD pair extended its weakness in the European session and reached 1205 in the mid-European session. According to 4 hours chart the yellow metal continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the downside. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

We assume that a daily close below 1200 would risk 1190 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

Oil prices dropped on Thursday amid the U.S. crude inventories growth which returned investors' concerns regarding a global glut despite supply cut agreement.

Current situation

Brent pulled back a bit during the Asian hours and reversed a minor portion of its Wednesday's losses. Buyers were able to return the price to the 53.50 region where the benchmark ran through fresh offers. Brent oil prices continued with a decline in the morning. Sellers returned the price below 53.50 and continued pushing the benchmark lower afterwards. Brent sharply fell in the noon and tested 52.50 dollars per barrel. The 4 hours chart showed that the black gold continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards and in the mentioned chart. The resistance lies at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remains within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A pullback is expected in the market in the near term. The price may recover a bit on profit-taking. The possible target is 53.50 dollars per barrel. If the downward pressure persists the price will reach 51.50 in the coming sessions.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded lower ahead of the ECB meeting results. Energy sector shares decline and disappointing corporate readings reported weighed on stocks as well.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the open. However the benchmark failed to extend its downside direction. Buyers filled the gap post European open. The index continued trading in a familiar range afterwards. The price stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours timeframe. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI consolidated within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The index now has the potential to post more gains. The main goal is the level at 12000. However, DAX needs to retake 11950 first.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street traded flat in pre-market ahead of the ECB meeting and Non-Farm payroll report on Friday.

Current situation

NASDAQ remained flat on Thursday hovering above 5340 in the 5360 region. According to 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5380, the support comes in at 5340.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will start as soon, as the price rises above the resistance level 5380.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:26 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.03.2017

Euro

General overview

Consumer Price Index in Germany came in a line with forecasts. However, despite positive inflation data in Germany and other EU countries the ECB is unlikely to change its policy in the nearest future.

Current situation

The night recovery stalled above 1.0650. Sellers regained control in the morning. The major weakened and broke the level post London open. The pair extended its weakness afterwards heading towards 1.0630. According to 4 hours chart the price tested the 200-EMA. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50-EMA kept pointed higher while the 100-EMA and the 200-EMA were neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD traded to the downside. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

If the bearish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 1.0600.

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Pound

General overview

The pound weakened after the Parliament decision to allow the UK PM Theresa May to trigger article 50. Some analytics expect Theresa May will officially announce about leaving the union on Wednesday during the Prime Minister question time in the House of Commons. Others believe she will wait for the EU Summit later this month.

Current situation

The GBPUSD opened in red on Tuesday. The pound started the day above 1.2200. Sellers returned the price to the level in the Asian session. A bout of fresh bearishness emerged in the morning. The spot broke the level and sharply dropped to 1.2100. Sellers failed to break the level at once and pulled back to gather some steam. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture will remain bearish in the nearest time. A daily close below 1.2100 would risk 1.2000.

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Yen

Current situation

The USDJPY opened bullish on Tuesday. The pair started the day at 114.70. Buyers pushed the price upwards in the night. The price broke the hurdle post European open. However, the major failed to extend its bullishness afterwards. The 115.00 level appeared to be well protected by sellers. The US dollar found fresh offers around 115.00 and dropped to 114.80 ahead of NY opening. The price was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for a rise towards 116.00 resistance area.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Aussie softened on Tuesday following National Australia Bank's Business Confidence survey. The survey disappointed investors and weighed on the national currency despite upbeat Chinese Industrial Production.

Current situation


Sellers continued to dominate on Tuesday. Bears pushed the AUD lower in the night. The currency pair touched 0.7550 post Asian open. The pair failed to retake the level in the Asian session and had to retreat. Sellers had another chance in the morning. They pushed the price lower and pierced the level in the early European trades. Sellers failed to break the level again and stayed around it till the NY opening. The spot remained under pressure due to the bid sentiment around the dollar during the NY session. The resistance is highlighted 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A close below 0.7550 will trigger losses towards 0.7500.

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XAU/USD

Current situation

Gold prices were neutral on Tuesday flirting with the 1200 handle in the early trades. The yellow metal was moving back and forth in a tight range between 1205 and 1200 the first part of the day. A fresh buying interest emerged in the late European session. The spot pushed away from 1200 and rallied towards 1205. The price was below the moving averages in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted 1210, the support comes in at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

After breaking 1205 the level 1210 will come back to the radar.

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Brent

Current situation

Brent oil prices tried to develop a correction on Tuesday. Buyers managed to lead the price to 51.50 over the night. The benchmark broke the level in the European session. However, oil prices failed to maintain their ask tone and turned bearish right after the level break. As the result the benchmark dropped to 50.50 dollars per barrel. According to 4 hours chart the benchmark continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance lies at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The oscillator RSI remained within the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations

If the benchmark manages to stay around 50.50 the next target for the price is the support level of 49.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview


European stocks moved lower on Tuesday amid the uncertainty around the Presidential elections in Netherlands. The upcoming Fed decision over the rate hike weighed on stocks as well.

Current situation


DAX turned bearish at open. The price pushed away from 12000 and edged lower towards 11900 in the late European session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price returned below the 50-EMA. The moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 12000, the support stands at 11900.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over
the market. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

If the price succeeds and fixes below the level of 12000, the market may fall towards 11900 and 11850.

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S&P500

General overview


Wall Street edged lower on Tuesday in the light of the FOMC two-day policy meeting.

Current situation

S&P500 was neutral during the night and morning trades. The benchmark was trading in a tight range of 30 pips around 2370. The index sharply dropped in the late European session and reached 2360. The price was sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50-EMA turned downwards while the 100 and 200 EMA maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A clear break below 2360 would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:27 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.03.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro weakened on Wednesday as investors the focus moved from the ECB and his plans to cut the QE program towards the election in Netherlands.

Current situation

Sellers found an obstacle at 1.0600. Buyers seem to have protected the level with fresh bids. The euro bounced off the support level in the Asian session. The rebound was still in force during the European hours. Buyers lifted the price to 1.0640 where the upward impetus slowed down. The 4 hours chart showed that the major broke the 200-EMA downwards and bounced off the 50-EMA afterwards. The 200 and 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 50-EMA moved upwards in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We see two scenarios for today. Should the Fed hike the rate the market may start a new decline. Sellers will lead the single European currency to 1.0550 in this case. A break above the level 1.0650 my trigger another leg higher towards 1.0700.

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Pound

General overview

Sellers seemed to have been exhausted and allowed a brief phase of upside consolidation in GBP/USD. The pound found strength to recover after a long period of weakness amid ‘Hard Brexit’ concerns. The upbeat Unemployment Rate supported the national currency. However, the recovery was limited as the Average Earnings came in below expectations.

Current situation

The bullish views were popular the first part of the day. The pound was in the green zone the night and the morning. The price bounced from 1.2150 in the Asian session and rallied towards 1.2200. The spot pierced the level in the European morning but failed to regain the hurdle. Sellers regained control and returned the Cable to 1.2200. According to 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA in the noon. The moving averages kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

A sustained break above the 1.2300 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. Should sellers remain in a driver’s seat the GBP/USD will likely target the 1.2100 support level.

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Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY pair consolidated on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of FOMC meeting. Traders expected 25 bp rate hike. Traders also looked forward to the BoJ meeting results and its decision regarding the rate. However, no one expected any surprise from this part.

Current situation

The overnight’s recovery attempt stalled just under the 115.00 barrier. Buyers’ inability to move higher returned control over the market to sellers. As a result the US dollar eased and erased all its recent gains in the European session. However, the overall picture remained unchanged. The USD/JPY pair was in a flat between 115.00 and 114.50. The spot continued developing above the moving averages in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Markets eagerly awaited the Fed meeting results due later in the American morning. If the regulator changes the rates the US dollar will revive with its bullishness sending the market upwards. A close above 115.00 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to the 116.00 mark. On the other hand, unchanged rates will disappoint investors who may push the greenback to 113.00.

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NZD/USD

General overview

Current Account data supported the NZD on Wednesday. Besides, the US dollar retracement ahead of the Fed rate announcement gave additional upward impetus to the kiwi.

Current situation


The NZD/USD pair traded in a sideways on Wednesday morning. The price has been moving back and forth between the channel bands since last week. The currency pair remained sandwiched between 0.6950 and 0.6900 during the day. The major bounced off the lower limit of the band in the Asian session and moved higher during the course of the night trades. The spot remained below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted 0.6950, the support comes in at 0.6900.

MACD formed a signal to rise. The RSI oscillator consolidated within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The immediate focus now remains on the Fed rate decision. In order to recover some strength, NZD/USD needs to rise back and hold above 0.6950. Conversely, a clear break below 0.6900 would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed.

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XAU/USD


General overview

The yellow metal received a minor support from a weaker US dollar on Wednesday.

Current situation

The night recovery stalled around 1205 dollars per ounce. After reaching the mentioned mark gold futures turned around and slightly eased in the morning. The metal weakened more during the European hours and touched 1200 ahead of the NY opening. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted 1210, the support comes in at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

If bulls retain control the price may recover above the 1210 area. The 1200 level loss is needed daily bears for extension towards next strong support at 1190 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

The unexpected draw in the US oil stocks saved buyers from further losses. OPEC compliance with agreed production cuts supported crude oil as well.

Current situation

Brent oil prices were calm on Wednesday after Tuesday’s rally. The price stayed in a tight range between 51.50 and 51.70 the first part of the day. The benchmark remained below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance lies at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We cannot rule out the chance that the price would not try to get to the level at 52.50. A move below 51.50 would revive bearishness towards 50.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks were neutral on Wednesday as traders preferred wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed meeting.

Current situation

DAX opened on a positive note. Buyers tried to break above 12000 but failed. A fresh selling interest returned the index below the level to the opening prices. The price bounced off the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher in the same timeframe. The resistance exists at 12100, the support stands at 12000.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Should buyers break above the current resistance our profit target will become 12100.

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NASDAQ

General overview

The US futures opened in the green as traders were positive about the Fed decision regarding the rates.

Current situation

NASDAQ managed to reverse its recent losses in the night and grew to 5395 where an upward momentum lost its strength. The index slightly softened during the European hours. The price tested the 50-EMA and bounced of upwards in the 4 hours timeframe. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned chart. The resistance is at 5420, the support comes in at 5380.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We maintain our positive outlook. The main goal remains the level 5420.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.03.2017

Euro

General overview

Trade Balance in Italy in the Euroland came in negative on Friday. Meanwhile, the sentiment around the US dollar continued to play a major driver across the markets. The greenback remained around its lows after less hawkish than expected Yellen's remarks.

Current situation

The euro spiked on Thursday in the late NY session. Buyers pushed the price upwards and broke 1.0750 in the night. Bulls advanced up to 1.0770 later the night where they stopped. The spot spent the night and the morning in a tight range hovering above 1.0750. The neutral stance remained unchanged during the day trades. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations


The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 1.0800 resistance area. However, we do not exclude a recovery pull back to 1.0720-1.0700.

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Pound

Current situation

The upside bias persisted on Friday. Buyers took a pause in the night. The night correction was just a profit taking action from buyers who loosened their grip for a while. Bulls returned in the morning and pushed the major to the 1.2400 level which stopped their advance. The price crossed the 100-EMA upwards and stayed below the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA turned upwards in the mentioned chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If the currency pair manages to make a breakout of the 1.2400 level the next target for this spot is the resistance level of 1.2500. However, in view of the overbought conditions a move above 1.2400 seems unlikely. In this potential scenario the GBP/USD pair may return to 1.2300.

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Yen

Current situation

The US dollar struggled to build on overnight recovery. Buyers tried hard to push the price higher but failed. The pair remained in a consolidation hovering above 113.00. Selling interest emerged in the morning. Traders pushed the price lower and erased all buyers' night gains. The major tested the 200-EMA in the 4 hours timeframe. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair may face further downside pressure in the short-term. When we break the level 113.00 the support 112.00 may come back into play.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian calendar was empty on Friday. Investors eagerly await for RBA minutes on Tuesday.

Current situation

The offered tone around the US dollar helped the AUD to strengthen. Buyers met a barrier at 0.7700 and had to give up their gains. The major bounced off and stopped above 0.7660. A bout of fresh buying pressure emerged in the Asian session on Friday. Buyers returned the AUD/USD pair to 0.7700 erasing all recent losses. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50 and 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 100-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

Once we break above the 0.7700 level, we think that the 0.7750 level will be next. Inability to post fresh gains may lead to some profit taking. The Aussie may weaken to 0.7600-0.7620.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices remained in the green. The precious metal is in demand in the light of political risks such as Trump’s presidency, Brexit and elections in Europe.

Current situation

Gold prices were neutral staying in a flat on Friday. After the recent rally buyers preferred to consolidate their gains. The 4 hours chart showed that the price was trading around the 100 and 200 EMAs. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We still hold the view that gold prices will struggle to climb north to 1230 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General Overview

Oil prices were stable ahead of rig count number report on Friday.

Current situation

After a sharp less-off on Thursday Brent was trying to build a recovery on Friday. The price spent the night around 51.50 and pushed away from the handle in the European morning. Buyers kept pushing the benchmark upwards during the morning and reached 52.00 in the noon. The price continued developing well below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A move above 52.50 dollars per barrel would indicate that immediate downward pressure eased. Should Brent oil prices recover ground and advance beyond the mentioned 52.50 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 53.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors were focused on G-20 meeting. Meanwhile, the financial stocks while mining sector was on the downside.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the open. The index maintained its ask tone a few hours after the gap. DAX almost reached 12000 when the benchmark reversed its direction. The index rallied and reached 12100 in the late European session. The price was above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 12100, the support stands at 12000.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI rebounded from the overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

The index now has the potential to post more gains. Our profit targets will be 12100 and 12200.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

NASDAQ opened on a positive note on Friday. The buyers managed to lead the price from 5420 to 5440 where the upward impetus lost strength. The benchmark eased a bit and returned to 5420 ahead of the NY session opening. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance is at 5460, the support comes in at 5420.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Bulls keep focus at the resistance level of 5460.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Mar 20, 2017 12:10 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.03.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro ignored positive Producer Price Index in Germany. The single currency weakened amid the US dollar recovery on Monday. The market is focused on the Presidential debates in France. Weidmann's speech (German Bundesbank President) will attract investors’ attention as well.

Current situation

The EUR/USD remained in bulls' hands on Monday. Buyers broke the level 1.0750 in the night and stopped after reaching 1.0777. The majors stayed neutral to negative flirting with 1.0750 during the European hours. The euro slightly weakened ahead of NY opening. The price was above the moving averages in the 4 hours timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD pair stays in a short-term upward channel. Buyers pushed the price to its upper limit the other day. In view of the overbought conditions a move towards the lower limit at 1.0700 is a possible scenario now.

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Pound

General overview

The pound took advantage of a broad based US dollar weakness and extended its winning steak on Monday. Investors waited for Haldane’s speech later the day on Monday and UK’s Consumer Price Index on Tuesday hoping to get some fresh drivers.

Current situation


The GBP/USD pair maintained its bid tone on Monday. Buyers pushed the price higher in the night session and hit fresh monthly highs above 1.2400. The major gave up its fresh gains in the noon. The currency pair weakened and returned below 1.2400 ahead of the NY opening. The pair bounced off the 200-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD indicator continued consolidating within overbought levels. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The overall picture is bullish. However, the major is overbought. As the most probable scenario, we consider a move downwards towards 1.2350. The spot will continue moving higher if the cable remains above 1.2400.

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Yen

General overview

Japanese markets were closed amid a public holiday - Vernal Equinox Day.

Current situation

The pair preserved its undertone on Monday. The currency pair remained in a downward channel. The spot found some support close to its lower limit in the Asian session. The pair bounced off 112.50 and reversed some losses in the morning. The major maintained its bid tone afterwards and approached 113.00 ahead of the NA opening. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA kept heading lower while the 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings, and headed now north.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, USD/JPY needs to rise back and hold above 113.00. However, we see little potential for a USD/JPY rally and expect a fresh selling pressure in the short term.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD/USD pair extended its gains on Monday following Westpac consumer survey. Even though the index came in a bit lower than expected investors remained positive.

Current situation

The kiwi opened on a stronger note on Monday. The price was growing the whole night and pierced the level 0.7050 in the morning. However, a further upside appeared to lack momentum. The major reversed its direction and returned below 0.7050 in the noon. The NZD extended its weakness afterwards advancing towards 0.7000. The 4 hours chart showed that the NZD/USD pair broke the 100-EMA upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower while the 50-EMA turned neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.7000.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator lost upward strength and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A move below 0.7000 would revive bearishness towards 0.6950.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices remained strong vs. the US dollar after less hawkish than expected Yellen’s remarks. Trump’s speech came in the first place on Monday afternoon.

Current situation

Gold prices remained in the green zone on Monday. Bulls broke 1230 in the Asian session and climbed to 1235 where they lost steam in the European morning. The pair hovered above the level till the NY session opening. According to 4 hours chart the spot bounced off the 100 and 200-EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 100-EMA turned downwards in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted 1240, the support comes in at 1230 dollars per ounce.

The MACD indicator continued consolidating within overbought levels. The RSI indicator remained within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

A pullback or consolidation is expected in the market in the near term. Below 1230, XAU/USD will likely target 1220 support.

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Brent

General Overview

A growing US drilling activity kept on weighing on oil prices. The growing activity reduces impact of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreement to cut production.

Current situation

Brent oil prices gapped downwards at the daily open. The price jumped from 51.58 to 51.50 dollars per barrel. Brent remained neutral the whole night staying around the tested handle. Black gold extended its weakness in the European session when sellers pushed the price to 51.00. The benchmark was below the moving averages which were all pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Brent may continue to trade in negative ground in the short-term. A breakout of 50.50 would aim sellers for 49.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks moved lower on Monday following oil prices decline and downbeat data from banking stocks.

Current situation

DAX opened lower on Monday. The price pushed away from 12100 at the open and posted a session low at 12030. The downward momentum faded right after that, bulls regained control and erased all bears' gains. The benchmark returned to the opening prices in the noon on Monday. The 4 hours chart showed that DAX remained above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance exists at 12100, the support stands at 12000.

MACD was at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

DAX is still in an upward channel. The upward trend line is around 12000. A break below the handle will soften an upward pressure. Sellers may reach 11900 in this case. A rebound here will return bullishness in its place. Buyers might want to reverse losses pushing the price to 12200.

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S&P500

Current situation

Bears had a ball on Monday. The offered tone around S&P500 pushed the index lower. Traders moved away from 2380 and reached 2370 in the night. After reaching 2370 the index stopped and spent European trades in a narrow range around the mentioned mark. The price stayed around the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours timeframe. 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned chart. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We await a break below 2370 to trigger another leg lower towards 2360.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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