"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the pair EUR/USD strengthened amid the May US inflation moderately negative data. The final indicator is higher by 0.1% that is worse than traders had expected that increased pressure on the dollar. However the euro showed a decreased on the Friday’s trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the May UK positive retail sales increased by 0.2% which is a positive factor for the British economy. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the profit taking on the carry trade transactions in the morning.

The situation with Greece continues to deteriorate investors' sentiment. If Athens is not able to negotiate with creditors, Greece will lose the new financial assistance tranche that is necessary for the debts repayment to the IMF in the amount of 1.6 billion euros ($ 1.82 billion).

The Euro group finance ministers meet in Luxembourg while Greece is on the agenda. However, the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that he would reject any offers that would force him to go to the "catastrophic" measures. It aggravates the prospects of signing the agreement. Speaking in the German parliament, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the agreement with Greece was still possible.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The May US inflation came out in the zero area while the market had expected the index of + 0.1%. In this regard, we get another negative factor for the US dollar. It is also necessary to note the payments balance report- the deficit has been over 100 billion dollars for two calendar quarter which is a direct consequence of the US dollar revaluation.

The European regulator has increased by 1 billion euro the amount that the Greece Bank to borrow under the emergency lending program.

Buyers failed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is still strong. Last week the UK traders were pleased with the average earnings and retail sales positive data while the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors with their negative economic forecasts. It is also necessary to note the UK and the US inflation trend. In April the spread was 1% (1.8% in the US and 0.8% in the UK).

The level of 1.5775 breakthrough led to the upward correction formation, aimed at the strong resistance level of 1.5950.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.5775 further on we expect a growth to 1.5950 and 1.6080.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy meeting results. The national currency devaluation is beginning to give its fruits- it was observed in recent reports the exports, industrial production and the payments balance positive trend. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged and pledged to increase the monetary base of $ 80 trillion yens per year. In this regard quotations decreased to 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair USD/CHF fell at the end of trades on Friday. The dollar consolidated its positions. The support for the US dollar came from the strong statistics which showed that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia business optimism index rose up to 15.2 pp vs. 8.0 pp in June and 6.7 pp in May.

In addition, the SNB President Jordan said yesterday that "it is risky to have long positions within the franc".

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD lost some ground expecting the EU emergency summit regarding the Greece situation, as well as the German bonds yield reducing to their counterparts from the US and the UK.

The GBP/USD fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pound slightly strengthened after the negative differential government bonds yields reduction in the UK and the US.

The USD/JPY lost the bearish sentiment background on the world's leading stock markets which caused the transactions carry trade closure. However the dollar strengthened and the pair increased.

Despite the relative stability which came from the dollar weakening rather than the euro increasing, the situation with Greece continues to worsen European investors’ mood. There was not adopted any Greek decision after the EU finance ministers meeting last Thursday which increases the default risks and the country's exit from the EU. Donald Tusk called an emergency meeting on Monday to decide the Greece fate. We expect the final agreement between Greece and creditors till the end of the week



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The week trading day was rich with important macroeconomic statistics. Still we highlight the May secondary market housing sales release in the USA. The 30-year mortgage growth rates at the end of May to the level of 4% contributed to a significant decrease in loans issued, indicating that the low volume of housing sales.

DO not forget about the Eurogroup meeting. The eurozone countries heads, including the ECB President Mario Draghi and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, met to discuss the current agreement with Greece with the European Financial Stability Mechanism. The officials show optimism pointed that a lot of work is ahead.

Buyers, updating the last week maximum, remain to dominate in the euro / dollar market . The pair is trading above the support level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1260. Then a consolidation can be formed.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

With the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we expect a moderate downward trend with long positions profit taking. There has been a strong quotations growth two trading weeks in a row - the British currency grew by 3.8%, and in this regard, some investors could like to close some deals.

The second time buyers rose the price to the resistance level of 1.5950. The first approach to this level happened amid the increased volumes without breaking it up. The second approach to the 1.5950 occurs at a reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.8880 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan H. Kuroda moderately positive comments may support the Japanese currency in the short term, as the US currency remained without drivers for growth after the US Federal Reserve meeting.

The upward trend of the pair halted in strong resistance level of 123.50. The resistance level at 123.50 test was on the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD lost some ground after the long positions profit taking. The final decision on Greece has not adopted yet and traders are in no hurry to long.

The GBP/USD fell as well amid the UK government bonds yields falling in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pair USD/JPY grew which caused the carry trade transactions opening.

They reported that the Greece government has submitted new proposals that include significant concessions related to the deficit reduction and pension reform. That news supported the euro as prompted the market to believe that the negotiations with the Athens creditors can get the ball rolling and finish with positive solutions. There were also reports on the euro side that the European Central Bank increased the emergency funding amount to the Greece banks. However, the warnings from the euro area members that the immediate breakthrough in the negotiation is unlikely to happen soon changed the investors' sentiment.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview
The final decision on "Greek debt" has not been accepted, however, everybody hopes that a positive decision will be made in the second half of the week as Athens has proposed a new plan to reduce costs.

Markit Economics published the business activity indices in the France and Germany manufacturing sectors.

Buyers have not been able to break through and stay above the strong resistance level of 1.1450. The approach to the resistance level of 1.1450 was followed by a rebound and a pulse break of the support level 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The yield on UK 10-year government bonds decreased toward their taxes in the US and Germany, which is a negative factor for the British currency. It is worth mentioning the UK and Germany bonds yields decrease which helps the cross-rate EUR/GBP to grow that in its turn puts pressure on the pound.

The strong support of 1.5775 break down happened on low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders positively reacted to the possible agreement between Greece and the creditors. This factor may increase the number of carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Traders expect the positive May USA durable goods which could support the demand for the dollar.

There was formed the two-day correction from the strong support level of 122.40. The correction target is the mark 123.50 that has been worked out.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

There has been an increased demand for the American currency - the dollar index basket USDX finished the trading day at around 95.61.

The EUR/USD is in the "red zone" the third day in a row. Traders ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, showing the lack of interest to the euro. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The GBP/USD lost some ground against the UK and the US government bonds negative differential expansion.

The USD/JPY ended the day in the "green zone". The new wave of carry trade deals against the demand for risky assets continued to put pressure on the Japanese yen.

There was a faint hope that Greece found a common language with creditors in respect of the country's next financial aid terms. After the Greek Government showed new proposals at the weekend new investors hoped that Greece did sign an agreement with the international lenders. The sources from the EU reported that Greece's new proposal is ambitious, still they need to solve the pensions and VAT issues. As we know Greece could not come to an agreement with creditors. So the optimism that was in the week beginning – vanished.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro ignored positive news background which indicates the strong sellers presence. The Markit Economics published the Germany production and non-production sphere PMI report. The releases were expected with a positive data, however the data showed a decrease in these sphere. Traders expected the moderately positive data from the institute IFO. The United States published the final Q1 GDP data. It reduced to 0.2%.

The level of 1.1290 breakthrough was accompanied by an active euro fall against the US dollar. The price has fallen more than 200 points and broke through all the closest supports.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1260, 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was a bearish sentiment predominance on the debt market negative dynamics in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany that will put pressure on the British currency. The third US GDP assessment impacts on the pair's strengthening. The data showed a decrease to 0.2%.

The British pound upward trend turned down after the strong support level of 1.5810. The breakthrough occurred on the lower volumes. Currently, there is a short-term upward correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bulls dominate. There was the price growth two consecutive days at the world's leading stock exchanges which indicates the investors' risk appetite presence. There has been the Japan and the US government bond yields negative differential expansion since the beginning of the week that is a bullish factor for the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was trading in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Traders took a pause after euro strong sales in spite of the debt market negative trend.

The GBP/USD lost its ground after the negative government bonds yields expansion in the UK and the US. However the pair slightly increased at the end of the day.

The USD/JPY has set a new 5-day high of 124.38, after which traders decided to take some profits on long positions as a result the market made a technical correction to 123.50.

Rumors that Greece may again return to the EU leaving discussion led to a renewed euro decrease. In addition, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras confirmed that the creditors rejected the list of proposals recently submitted by Athens.

The number of the USA unemployed who applied for unemployment compensation came to 271 000 with 273 000 forecasted. The previous record was 267 000.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone will not please market participants with interesting macroeconomic statistics. The USA and Germany 10-year government bonds yields negative differential again expanded and already reached the maximum level over the past 3 weeks.

The United States published the initial jobless claims report. The data showed a growth from 267 000 up to 271 000. The forecast was 273 000.

The downward trend turned to a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Three trading days has shown the pound's weakness, the current levels look attractive for the medium-term investors who are counting on the upward trend continuation. However, the debt market dynamics shows a mixed background - the British 10-year Treasury bonds profitability has been lowering against the US Treasuries and is growing to German bonds.

The Pound continued its downward correction relative to the US dollar. After three days of a corrective decline the pair broke the strong support level of 1.5775 and tested the level of 1.5670. Then the pair slightly corrected upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a predominance of bearish sentiment and long positions profit taking in the US and the Japanese stock market. Investors closed their carry trade transactions which creates a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

In this connection, we expect the price lowering. Still the bulls can take the initiative in their hands against the background of positive dynamics in the debt market. The level of 123.50 breakthrough served as a downward reversal correction signal.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The sentiment against the "greenback" were supported with hope that Greece will solve all debt issues. The fact that the Greeks once again failed to reach agreement with the creditors supported the dollar. The latest US Q1 GDP estimate supported the dollar as well.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading was quite enough last week. The EUR/USD was mostly in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Investors are waiting how the Greece situation will be solved and in no hurry to open new positions. By the end of the trades the support level of 1.1150 was tested and the pair decreased.

The GBP/USD decreased after of the cross-rate EUR/GBP falling which supported the demand for the British currency. However, in general, the pound is consolidating.

The USD/JPY has lost ground amid the US and Japanese market shares downward trend. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased amid the US economic data

Meanwhile, market sentiment remained under pressure as talks between Greece and its creditors broke down again on Thursday. Greece has critical little time to find money before the impending deadline (30 June), we remind you that Greece has to pay loans in the amount of 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary fond. If Greece misses the payment, it may declare a default which could cause its going out from the euro zone.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We just highlight the money supply changes report among the published macroeconomic releases. The ECB QE is in full swing, we expect money supply aggregate M3 increase . Still not an inflation problem is on agenda but Greek with its default menace. Decision on "Greek debt" is still pending, some analyst say that the parties may agree as early as this week.

The downward trend stopped at the support level of 1.1150 and got into a three-day consolidation. The current price is trading at levels ranged 1.1260 - 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150, 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Current levels are attractive for medium traders who believe in the upward trend continuation, however, the debt market does not show any sign of this, the signal to long is weak.

Sellers failed to break below the strong support level of 1.5670. The reverse return to has led to a growth to the level of 1.5775 with a consolidation below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5670, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan published a unit of important macroeconomic statistics where we highlight the inflation and the household expenditure. Growing the 10-year Japanese government bonds yields, combined with a reduction in unemployment and moderate wage growth pointed to the yield data within or slightly better than the median forecasts.

The correction movement came close to the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 124.30. After breaking 124.30 the buyers may go to 125.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

A driver is still the talks on Greece, where the parties can not reach an agreement. The new proposals are not accepted by the Athens' creditors, the parts keeps to search for a consensus. In these circumstances investors do not rush to trade and actually ignore the economic data.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Greek crisis provoked a sharp euro decline on Monday, during the Asian session.

The German investors expect the euro and European bonds to experience a significant pressure. They believe that the market preference will be given to safe-haven assets such as the Germany government bonds, as well as the gold.

Last week, the EUR/USD has grown a bit after the positive US consumer confidence release from the Michigan University. On Monday, the pair fell in the light of Greek news. The euro fell yesterday in the first part of the day amid the Greek issue still the tool was able to recover, thanks to the Swiss regulator interventions.

The GBP/USD finished trades in the negative area, still the cross-rate EUR/GBP decrease did not allow the British pound to weaken significantly. The gap was closed by the end of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY showed growth on the demand for risky assets. "Bulls" are returning in the hope of a Greece positive decision. However the pair decreased on the yesterday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The situation around Greece tense to the limit. Last Saturday the Greece Prime Minister Tsipras met with the international creditors, the meeting was unsuccessful, no agreement was reached out. Now all the attention is on 5th of July, when Greece shall hold a popular referendum on the country's withdrawal from the debt crisis.

Most of the previous week, the price stayed above the support level of 1.1150. All attempts to break below were accompanied by a short-term rebound. The new week has allowed sellers to break below the strong support level of 1.1150 using the price gap (the gap). The support level of 1.1050 was also broken. The SNB intervention supported the euro. The pair managed to recover the loss and returned to 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers closed the gap. We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

There has not been published anything interesting from the United Kingdom and the United States macroeconomic statistics and therefore we should pay attention to the debt market dynamics. The bond market is in the flat - the 10-year UK government bonds yield slightly fluctuated to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pound is unlike the euro opened at the previous week closing price. Then it was a gap but not as strong as in the pair EUR/USD. This trade is above the strong support level of 1.5670, which has been constrained sellers four days.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the May retail sales and industrial production releases. The increase in household spending amid rising employment and wages allows us to hope that we will get to a positive retail sector sales report.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 122.40 soon. The way to the mark of 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

A. Merkel said that the debate about Greece are to hold in the Bundestag on Wednesday. The Greek 10-year government bonds yield reached a level of 15%, pointing to the high economic risks that is a negative factor for the euro. On Monday, the EUR/USD began trading with a gap in the area of 1.1009, then it showed a growth above the 12 figure amid rumors of a possible agreement between Athens and the creditors. The growth was permanent and the pair fell by the end of Tuesday.

The GBP / USD fell amid the cross-rate EUR/GBP growth. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The pair USD/JPY closed the day in the "red zone". Traders ran from risky assets to the "safe yen."

The United States can please us with positive macroeconomic statistics. Last Friday, the Michigan University reported about the consumer confidence maximum level over the past 5 months. Еhe positive trend was confirmed by the Conference Board (the data showed a growth from 94.6 to 101.4) - we noted demand for the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is more than closed the Monday gap, however, a further upward trend is not so obvious as it seems. The inflation Weak data in Germany can not be expected to yield the eurozone CPI positive data. The "Greek debt" issue has not completely resolved yet and there is also a possibility of negative surprises. Athens will not be able to repay the debt of 1.55 billion, still traders agree that the IMF and the international rating agencies will not consider this step as a default. The consumer price index grew during the first summer month increased by 0.2% per annum.

The price closed the price gap of more than 200 points. The buyers did not stop raising rates even higher by 100 points. There was the resistance 1.1150 breakthrough and the level of 1.1260 testing on the increased volume. Then it were a rebound to the 1.1150 and its breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance level of 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Statistics National Office has published the UK balance of payments and the first quarter GDP. The negative "black gold" trend did not support bullish sentiment in the pair GBP/USD. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The downward correction from 1.5925 stalled at the strong support level of 1.5690.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.5670, 1.5550. The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated at the market. Instability around Greece have a negative impact on the global stock markets, which favored to the carry trade deals closing and lead to a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. There were two sectors outsiders in the US stock market: the financial and high-tech ones which indicates a very low "risk appetite".

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 121.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 120.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sent to Greece the details of a new agreement with creditors. According to Juncker, if the Greeks rejects the proposal in the referendum, it will mean that they will vote for the eurozone exit. The ECB, Benoit Ker said that Greece's exit from the Eurozone can not be excluded now.

The EUR/USD decreased after the June positive US consumer confidence release. The Conference Board index came to the level of 101.4, indicating increased consumer activity.

The pair GBP/USD finished trading in the "red zone". The British currency was under pressure due to lower government bonds yields.

The USD/JPY fell against the demand for safe assets due to the situation around Greece. However the pair increased by the end of the day.

We shall pay attention to the United States statistics: the ADP US employment and business activity in the manufacturing sector. In the first two months of the second quarter, the US economy is steadily creating more than 200 thousand new jobs, indicating that the output data will be within the median forecasts. During June, the jobs number in the private sector amounted to 237 thousand. The forecast was 220 thousands. The business production activity showed 53.5 when the forecast was 53.2.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The eurozone inflation release has not caused a strong reaction at the market. The CPI dropped to the level of 0.2% year on year, which coincided with the investors' expectations. The government bonds yields differential in Greece and Germany expands, indicating a high risk of "Greek issue". As it became known Greece declared default.

After a sharp jerk up 300 points the price is slowly correcting downwards. The corrective weakness allowed sellers to break and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925. The buyers need to break above 1.1150 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1260, 1.1450 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should pay attention to the Markit Economics PMI index in the production sphere: the index fell to 51.4 from 51.9 in June. You should also pay attention to the US ADP employment statistics and the business activity in the manufacturing sector. The data showed 237 000 and 53.5. The data came out slightly better then forecasted medians.

After the sixth day of the downward correction the pair is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5670. Then the broke this level down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen show and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460 and 1.5390



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan released the Tankan economic survey which is traditionally closely monitored both by economists and market traders. According to Tankan surveys during the second quarter - the index for large manufacturers 15 (12 expected), previously 12, this is the first index increase for the first three quarters, the value has been the highest since March 2014. The uncertainty around Greece continues to provide negative impact on risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD fell after the US positive business climate report in the manufacturing sector. The index has risen to its highest level in the past five months, indicating to the USA economic growth acceleration. The pair slightly increased by the end of the day.

The GBP/USD ends two trading days in a row at "minor note." The British currency came under a wave of sales after the negative UK manufacturing sector PMI publication. The long-term interest rates growth has a negative impact on the mortgage market. The mortgage loans approved applications number decreased in May by 3.1 thousand, while the mortgage is the main growth driver in the construction sector.

The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand. However the pair decreased amid the dollar weakness.

The dollar consolidated when investor strengthened in the opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. The ADP National Employment Report showed that the June new jobs number in the US private sector was 237,000 vs. the forecast - 218,000.

We got the ambiguous statistics from the USA: on the one hand the unemployment fell from 5.5 to 5.3%. The initial jobless claims number rose by 10,000, reaching 281,000. The NFP amounted 223,000, the previous index was above 250,000.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Every day we get a lot of conflicting information about the situation with the "Greek debt." Every day the market is got excited by various rumors, still Greece held a popular referendum on July 5 and parties again sit down at the negotiating table on 6 July. Until that time, we should not pay attention to the publication.

Besides the Greek debt issue another worth mentioning this week event was the June USA NFP. The NFP showed 223K, with previous 250K. The unemployment fell from 5.5% to 5.3. The Initial Jobless Claims is 281000 versus previous 271000. This Friday the US markets are closed amid the Independence Day.

The euro has been down against the US dollar after a sharp pulse up to 300 points аor three days. The price decrease occurs at low volumes and is aimed to break the level of 1.1050. But the price rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Further on we expect the fall towards 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing sphere fell to the lowest level since May 2014, which calls into question the high economic growth. Moreover, the spread indicators UK/US widened in favor of the latter by the end of June, indicating that a high USA economic growth will provide support to the US currency.

Sellers reduced the price down amid the low volumes. There is consolidation between the support level of 1.5550 and the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5550, 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen has ignored the positive Tankan economic survey which indicates at the strong buyers presence in the market. The manufacturing sector business climate report from the ISM points to the USA economic growth acceleration that will contribute to the rumors re-emergence about the Fed rate hike in September.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell rapidly against the dollar this level. The dollar consolidated when traders believed in fact that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. However the franc strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9725.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.