"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro slightly retreated from eleven month lows amid mixed Eurozone data staying in the red in the light of Donald Tramp victory.

Current situation

The euro gapped lower at the open when prices jumped from 1.0850 to 1.0830 on Monday. The euro did not fill the gap and continued moving downwards, trading in a near-term descending channel. The pair met a barrier around 1.0800 which slowed down its downward trajectory during the Asian hours. After a brief consolidation phase the EUR/USD managed to break the level and extended its losses towards 1.0750. Sellers tested the level and set a daily low at 1.0727 post-European open. After testing 1.0750 the common currency temporally rolled back above the broken level. Sellers broke the level and moved prices lower in the NY session. The prices are well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700.

According to the technical indicators the EUR/USD is oversold and holds within negative levels. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0700 will trigger the next leg of move for the pair. In this scenario sellers will push prices lower and may test the level 1.0650. To ease the downward pressure the EUR/USD pair needs to return to 1.0850.

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Pound

General overview

There were no macroeconomic releases in the UK on Monday. Risk-off sentiment made risky retreat keeping the pound into fresh lows. The weak Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales weighed on the British pound as well.

Current situation

The pound gapped lower at the open on Monday. Prices dropped from 1.2594 to 1.2564 and almost filled the gap in the mid-Asia. The market reached the mark 1.2591 where a new wave of selling interest turned them around. Sellers moved the price lower and were able to test 1.2500 ahead of European opening. The pair pierced the level, recorded a daily low at 1.2450 and immediately rolled back. The neutral 200-EMA stopped the sellers’ downward impetus. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards. Both lines keep heading higher. The current resistance is seen at 1.2600, the support is at 1.2500.

Technical indicators are now giving bearish signals. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and headed south.

Trading recommendations

The market seems to have switched its tone to bearish. The ongoing decline may be attributed to some profit taking from bulls after last week rally. A solid break below 1.2500 will increase chances of testing the 1.2400 mark. A move lower will neutralize the current positive scenario sending the pair to 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The yen got under selling pressure after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's speech. Despite the positive GDP for Q3 domestic demand is too weak to support the Japanese currency.

Current situation

Fresh buying pressure around the U.S. dollar boosted USD/JPY to fresh highs. The price remained in an ascending channel, trading around its upper end. Buyers were able to test the level 108.00 where prices stayed till the end of the European session. Buyers broke the level and extended their gains in the NY session. The pair is well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their growth. All lines are pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 108.50, the support comes in at 108.00.

Technical indicators keep heading north within positive territory. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is consolidating within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The greenback needs to break 108.00 to retain bullishness for further gain to 108.50. Sellers will do their best to return the market. The 106.50 level is their first target.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian currency slightly changed on Monday trading around monthly low as a weak Chinese data weigh on the AUD.

Current situation

The Aussie fell to the lowest in 4 weeks on Friday. The price left the near-term ascending channel and dropped below 0.7600. The market is in bears' hands now. The Australian currency found some temporal support around 0.7540 and remained confined within a trading range around the level. The pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Monday. Buyers failed to lead the price above 0.7560, at the same time sellers were unable to push prices below 0.7520. The price remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages are going downwards. The resistance is at 0.7570, the support can be found at 0.7540.

The technical indicators headed sharply lower within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative area.

Trading recommendations

If the downward trajectory remains intact we could see the pair extending down to the 0.7500 region during the next days. A bounce off the current support level may give bulls a chance to reverse some losses towards 0.7580.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices remained under pressure trading around 5 month low being under pressure as U.S. elections results continued weighing on market sentiment. Majority of investors believe that the Fed will hike the rate in December that weighed on the market sentiment as well.

Current situation

Gold prices bounced off the border of the oversold zone on Monday. Sellers failed to extend decline below 1210 dollars per ounce and buyers took a chance to reverse some losses. The yellow metal broke the level 1220 and almost reached 1230 where the buying momentum lost its leg. The price faced another downside pressure and returned below 1220. Traders tested 1210 at the beginning of the New York session. Prices traded below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving south. The resistance is at 1220, the support comes in at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD is in the negative territory. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

If risk-on sentiment remains intact gold prices will weaken further. A firm break below 1220 handle would open the door for testing the levels 1210 and 1200 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oils prices traded onto fresh lows on Monday amid renewed glut concerns and growing number of the US drilling rigs. Moreover, investors doubt that the OPEC members will come to an agreement with the output freeze.

Current situation

Oil prices remained around their lowest mark in three months. Black gold resumed its decline after brief consolidation above 44.50 on Monday. Sellers broke the level 44.50 dollars per barrel mid-Europe and extended two straight sessions of losses towards the mark 44.00. Sellers were unable to move oil futures lower and spent the rest of the day around the fresh lows. Brent oil prices remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 44.50, the support comes in at 43.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is in the negative territory. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative area.

Trading recommendations

The price eyes strong support at 43.50 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 42.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

Shares in European banks traded higher on Monday amid financial and mining sectors rise.

Current situation

DAX prices gapped higher at the open on Monday. Prices jumped and tested 10800 but failed to reclaim the level. The index bounced off the resistance and moved lower. Traders manage to test the 10700 support level which seems to be guarded by bulls as prices bounce off the level on every attempt to downside. The benchmark prices are above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their moderately bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within positive levels.

Trading recommendations

If sellers break the level 10700 they will be able to extend their losses towards 10600 and further out to 10500.

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NASDAQ


General overview

The Nasdaq Composite fell on Monday amid Apple, Facebook and Microsoft shares decline. Moreover, the US stocks are affected by a selloff in the global bond markets as investors still weigh up Trump victory and his future policies.

Current situation


The Nasdaq Composite opened lower on Monday. The index remained under heavy selling pressure during the day. Traders broke the level 4740 and tested 4710 in the NY session. Prices bounced off the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart and moved lower. NASDAQ broke the 50-EMA post-American open. The moving averages headed lower in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 4740, the support is at 4710.

Technical indicators are now giving bearish signals. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is going south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

4710 seems the next probable bearish target. A daily close below the level would risk 4680.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:58 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened on Tuesday despite a weaker GDP in Germany. The single European currency strengthened on the back of stronger-than-expected Economic Sentiment in Euroland.

Current situation

The pair remained in the red figures on yesterday's trades. The EURUSD touched an 11-month low on Monday before pulling back yesterday. The euro regained lost footing versus its American counterpart on Tuesday. Prices bounced off the border of the oversold zone and were able to escalate to 1.0800. The common currency just tested the mentioned level and rolled back post-Europe open. The pair broke the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages kept moving lower. The resistance is seen at 1.0800, the support could be found at 1.0750.

The indicators remained in extreme oversold levels. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1.0800 will extend the current rebound. In this scenario the EUR/USD pair may test the 1.0850 level and fill the Monday's gap. If bears retain control prices may fall to 1.0650.

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Pound

General overview

The strong UK Producer Price Index failed to support the pound which softened after a decline UK October's inflation figures.

Current situation

The pound remained under pressure and continued its slide on Tuesday. GBP/USD traded within a tight range during the Asian hours and moved lower ahead of the European opening. The price accelerated its decline and was able to test the 1.2400 level in the mid-European session. The pair broke the 200-EMA and tested the 100-EMA during the European hours. The moving averages were neutral in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

The technical indicators headed lower within positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is going downwards which confirms the growing strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

We believe bears will keep control over the market during the next days. A close below the support at 1.2400 could see GBP/USD extend its declines down to 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The greenback holds steady around 14-year high as the increasing bets of an eventual Fed rate-hike action support the dollar across the board.

Current situation

Traders held the pair onto fresh high, staying in a tight range between levels 108.00 and 108.50 in the yearly trades on Tuesday. Buyers tried to push prices higher but they met sellers’ resistance on every attempt to the upside. Bulls finally broke the level and trended higher in the NY session. The USD/JPY pair stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 108.50, the support comes in at 108.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

We believe a minor technical correction is on the way. A move below 108.00 will put on hold bulls’ plans. A daily close below the level will favor an advance down to the 107.50 region. A move lower will target the market at 107.00 and 106.50.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand currency strengthened on Tuesday as markets calmed down after the recent earthquake and Donald Trump victory.

Current situation

The overall picture remained firmly bearish. Prices traded around the 0.7100 region during the course of the day. Buyers tried to develop an upward correction, however, prices came under renewed selling pressure around 0.7150 at the beginning of the Asian session. The pair returned to the 0.7100 region where it spent the rest of the day. The 1 hour chart shows that the price is currently struggling with a bearish 50-EMA which acts as a resistance for it. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support can be found at 0.7100.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the undervalued area heading north.

Trading recommendations

The pair has a chance to strengthen while it stays above 0.7100. The level 0.7150 is the probable bulls’ target. However, further weakening towards 0.7070 is not ruled out.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices upside momentum was limited by growing speculations over a possible Fed rate-hike in December.

Current situation

Gold prices were range-bound-to higher on Tuesday. The yellow metal stayed between 1230 and 1220 dollars per ounce during the course of the trades. The pair tried to grow, however, its recovery stalled at 1230. Prices just tested the level and bounced from it. The XAU/USD pair spent the rest of the day in the middle of the range. The price remained below the main moving averages which are all pointing lower in the 1 hour chart. The precious metal struggled to take out 50-EMA barrier during the day. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The technical indicators maintained their bearish momentum within negative territory. MACD slightly grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator continued consolidating within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, the XAU/USD needs to rise and hold above 1230 - 1235 dollars per ounce. On a wider perspective the gold could gain momentum, if it recovers above the 1250 area.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices strengthened on hopes that the OPEC members will come to an agreement with an output cut.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted, oil prices extended their short-term upward trajectory yesterday. Prices bounced off the oversold level at 43.50 and headed north. Brent futures broke the level 44.50 and continued moving higher afterwards. The bulls briefly slowed down approaching the 45.50 region. However a new buying interest around the level fueled their positive sentiment. The benchmark broke the level and extended its gains. According to the 1 hour chart prices broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA which rejected them downwards mid-European session. After rolling back buyers attacked the moving again and broke it upwards this time. Prices moved to the 200-EMA after breaking the level which stopped their further strengthening. The moving averages kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI moved upwards heading away from the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

Brent oil futures looked positive yesterday. When the price consolidates above the level 45.50 the resistance 46.50 will come back into play.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded higher on Tuesday following the energy shares growth. Mining shares sharply fell weighing on shares in European banks.

Current situation

Bears are attempting to control the market now. The index struggled with 10700 to move lower during the day. Buyers seemed to be guarding the level holding prices around it. The 1 hour chart showed that the 50-EMA stopped the DAX index further losses. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100-EMA crossed upwards the 200-EMA in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within positive levels tending to move lower.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force below 10700 we could see prices testing the level 10600 in the nearest time. On the other side a bid tone maintains while the index stays above 10700. Buyers may extend their gains towards 10800.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened higher being supported by energy stocks growth. Investors keep an eye on Trump's new policies and key appointments to his administration.

Current situation

The index traded flat as the neutral phase that started last week was intact. Prices stayed in a wide range between levels 2150 and 2170. Sellers are gaining more control limiting buyers' attempt to take out 2170. The benchmark bounces off the level on any up-move to it. S&P500 stayed around the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA provides a solid support limiting the index further losses. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 2170, the support is at 2160.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 2150 we could see the pair extending down to the 2140 region during the next days.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:11 pm

17.11.16

Fundamental and technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro softened on the back of strong dollar and lack of drivers from the Eurozone. Moreover, investors keep pricing in the Fed possibility to hike rates in December.

Current situation

The EUR/USD failed to hold to gains and turned negative after the opening on Wednesday. The euro continued to grind lower and tested 1.0700 at the London open. The price touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages continued moving lower. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700.

Technical indicators retained bearish signals. MACD remained in the negative area. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area.

Trading recommendations

We believe the euro will maintain its bearish momentum in the short-term. The 1.0700 level is likely to be broken soon and the level 1.0650 appears to be the next intraday support and probable bearish target.

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Pound

General overview

Mixed employment data in the UK weighed on the pound. Average Earnings including Bonus fell together with Claimant Count Change while Unemployment Rate grew.

Current situation

As for the technical outlook the pair held a bullish tone during the Asian and European hours on Wednesday. The pound was hovering above 1.2400 trying to extend its recovery. The level 1.2500 appeared to be a strong barrier on its way upwards. After testing the level prices rolled back and reached 1.2400 ahead of the NY session. The price kept struggling with the 200-EMA ahead of London opening. The line limited its further gains in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

Technical indicators are neutral now. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

Failure to hold above 1.2500 risks a slide to 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the level 1.2300 will come back to the radar.

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Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY continued with gains due to risk-on sentiment. Nikkei 225 reached the highest since February supporting the safe heaven yen. The U.S. dollar is strong across the board amid renewed hopes that the Fed will hike the rate this year.

Current situation

The pair trades in an upward channel. The U.S. dollar was hovering near multi month highs against its Japanese counterpart on Wednesday. The dollar climbed higher and reached the mark 109.50 in the mid-European session. Traders failed to extend their gains, the price turned around and retreated back to 109.00. The USD/JPY pair traded well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages 50, 100 and 200 accelerated their growth. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00.

The technical indicators retained bullish signals. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The price seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 110.00. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 110.50 could be observed further. A break below 109.00 will ease the upward pressure. The USD/JPY may soften to 108.00 and lower to the mark 107.50.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The USD/CAD strengthened on Wednesday amid oil prices decline.

Current situation

The pair is in an ascending channel, trading around its lower boundary. A two day decline was stopped when prices met a barrier around 1.3400. Prices bounced from the oversold area and trended upwards during the course of the day. The US dollar broke the level 1.3470 in late European trades. After breaking the level the USD/CAD extended its gains heading towards 1.3540. The bullish spike faded after testing the 1.3500 mark. The USD/CAD pair came across a selling pressure and returned to opening prices. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their growth in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.3470, the support can be found at 1.3400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

The pair is turning bullish now. A consolidation above 1.3470 will strengthen buyers' positions. Bulls may lead prices towards 1.3540.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices traded higher on Wednesday however its gains are limited due to renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates in December.

Current situation

A consolidation phase remained intact on Wednesday. Buyers managed to reverse just a minor part of their losses before the recovery action stalled around 1230 dollars per ounce. An attempt to reclaim the 1230 level failed during the European trades. The yellow metal rolled back immediately after the level test. According to the 1 hour chart the pair failed to break the 50-EMA. The moving appeared to be a solid barrier which rejected the yellow metal downwards. The moving averages pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The technical indicators headed lower within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The price came across fresh selling offers around 1230 dollars per ounce. A failed test of the barrier may renew the selling interest sending prices to 1210 through 1220.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices hold onto gains despite the U.S. crude inventories increase.

Current situation

Oil prices retreated from 2 week high on Wednesday. The benchmark met a barrier around 47.50 where buyers lost strength and turned around. Traders pushed Brent futures down and tested 46.50 dollars per barrel in the mid-Europe trades. The ongoing weakening could be attributed to some profit taking from bull following two day rally. Brent oil prices bounced from the 100-EMA and moved lower. The price is sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The indicators bounced from oversold level. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Buyers are unable to climb above 47.50 for now. Bears took control over the market and drove prices lower. Should the Brent prices lose ground and advance below 46.50, the decline can extend in the short term to 45.50 first. The second sellers' target lies at 44.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European shares traded higher amid mining stocks strengthening alongside with Wire Card and Bouygues shares.

Current situation

The index traded in a wide range between 10700 and 10800 during the first part of the day. Sellers seemed to be getting more control as weak buyers failed to retake the 10800 mark. The index sharply moved below 10700 and tested 10600 post-European open. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving briefly slowed down the index decline. The moving averages presented modest bullish slopes. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and moved south.

Trading recommendations

The overall picture is bearish now. Firm break below 10700 handle would open the way to 10600 and further out to 10500.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street moved lower on Wednesday amid oil prices decrease.

Current situation

The market sentiment switched to a bearish one. The benchmark recovery lost legs just above 4770. The index turned around and softened right after piercing the level. NASDAQ now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 4740. A failure test of the 100-EMA caused a sell-off and the index weakening. The price is in-between the 100 and 50 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The lines act as a resistance and a support for the benchmark. The resistance is seen at 4770, the support is at 4740.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The further upmove is expected to face stiff barrier around the current resistance. The index is overbought and the move below 4740 shall ease the buying pressure. Sellers will try to drive prices to the level 4710.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:55 am

18.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone CPI for October matched the estimates while CPI monthly reading fell short-of expectations. The dollar slightly softened but remained onto fresh highs. The dollar continued getting support from market expectations for a December Fed rate-hike and possible improvements in economic growth.

Current situation

The market sentiment was negative on Thursday. The EUR/USD remained in a descending channel, close to its lower boundary. The price was quite during the Asian trades around recent lows at 1.0700. The euro bounced from 1.0700 and moved higher in the European session. The upward momentum ran out of steam when approached the level 1.0750, as a result the common currency moved back. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 1 hour chart. The euro broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700.

The technical indicators maintained bearish momentum within negative territory. The MACD and RSI indicators continued consolidating within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A failure to hold above 1.0700 risks a slide to 1.0650. At the same time a further strengthening will not be possible until the pair breaks above 1.0750.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on the back of better-than-expected Retail Sales.

Current situation

The British currency was range-bound-to lower during the Asian hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD strengthened ahead of the Europe opening. The price spiked and tested the upper limit of the range. However the pair rolled back when the advance lost upward momentum. Prices bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The upward trajectory was stopped by the 200-EMA. The moving averages are still neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area.

Trading recommendations

The pound needs fresh drivers to leave the current range. A break above 1.2500 will open the way towards 1.2550. A daily close below 1.2400 would risk 1.2350.

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Yen

General overview

The yen retreated from the daily highs after the BoJ’s decision to buy unlimited amount of JGBs.

Current situation

Fresh buying pressure around the U.S. dollar boosted USD/JPY to fresh highs. After refreshing highs at 109.76 prices rolled back and returned to the nearest support region. The pair was under pressure struggling hard with the 109.00 level to go lower on Thursday. The pair bounced from the support 109.00 and trended higher ahead of the NY opening. The price tested and bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA became a solid barrier which limited the dollar further weakness. All moving averages were pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook is neutral/bullish. A firm break below 109.00 handle would open the way towards 108.00. Nevertheless, we would be buying the pair until it stays above 109.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Aussie edged lower on Thursday on the back of weaker jobs data.

Current situation

The AUD/USD slightly strengthened in the Asian session on Thursday. Prices were able to escalate to 0.7500 where a bid tone lost its legs. The price weakened and returned to opening prices in the mid-Asia. Sellers struggled with buyers to break the 0.7470 level during the European session. The AUD/USD pair finally broke the level ahead of the NY opening. After breaking 0.7470 the Aussie continued to lose its value. The pair remained well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their decline. The resistance is at 0.7470, the support can be found at 0.7435.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 0.7470 we could see the pair extending down to the 0.7435 region during the next days.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices gained on yesterday's trades when the dollar moved from the 14 years high. Besides, the markets took a breath awaiting for J.Yellen's testimony.

Current situation

Gold prices remained flat on Thursday. The trading range narrowed and prices traded between 1225 and 1230 dollars per ounce during the day. The yellow metal slightly grew from the lower limit of the range to its upper one. However its recovery stalled after testing the 1230 level. According to 1 hour chart the pair broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA slowed down the XAU/USD pair acting as a resistance. The 50-EMA is neutral in the mentioned timeframe while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slopes. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative levels.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1230 will suggest further extension towards 1240. Conversely, a strong breakdown and close below 1220 could send prices lower towards 1210 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices turned higher on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih's testimony that he was optimistic over OPEC preliminary oil freeze deal which was reached in September.

Current situation

Brent had a positive day on Thursday. Bulls maintained control extending their near-term upward trajectory. A fresh buying interest around 46.50 pushed the benchmark higher. Oil prices rallied and reached the level 47.50 ahead of the NY session. The benchmark started the day between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Brent futures were able to test the 100-EMA ahead of the New York session. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs kept moving lower. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI remained within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

If Brent futures break 47.50 the level 48.50 may become an attractive target for bulls.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded higher focusing on Yellen's speech. The mining stocks added while the financial stocks were on the downside. South African Investec company jumped to 6-month high after its latest corporate earning report.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the open on Thursday. Traders were unable to develop an upward trajectory which immediately faded after the gap. Prices turned lower and dropped to 10600 where they stayed before the North American session. The 50-EMA stopped the downward impetus rejecting prices upwards. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The DAX index will remain in bulls’ hands while the benchmark holds above 10600. Only a clear break below the level will ease the current bid sentiment. In this scenario sellers will lead prices to 10500. A failure to break the current support level will suggest an upward continuation towards 10800.

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S&P500

General overview


Wall Street opened neutral awaiting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech.

Current situation

After refreshing monthly highs at 2184 the index rolled back. S&P500 softened to the mark 2170 which stopped its decline. The index remained onto fresh highs staying between 1270 and 1280 on Thursday. The 1 hour chart showed that the price stayed around the 50-EMA which limited its downside extension. The moving averages maintained bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2170.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

A strong break and close above 2180 could send prices higher towards 2190. However, the benchmark is overbought and we do not exclude a large correction towards 2150.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Nov 20, 2016 3:29 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro moved higher on Friday following Mario Draghi's promises to maintain stimulus until euro land inflation becomes self-sustainable. Despite the current weakness the dollar was supported by the strength of the US economy and Yellens' hawkish testimonials which reinforced market expectations that the FED would hike the rate next month.

Current situation

The pair has been under intense selling pressure since last week. The bearish trend remained intact on Friday. The price fell overnight and tested the level 1.0600 for the first time since December 2015. The EUR/USD found a temporal bottom around 1.0600 and stayed there in a consolidation phase during the European hours ahead of the US opening. The euro posted new yearly low at 1.0580 and bounced upwards, erasing its recent losses. The price moved lower in the North American session. The price was developing well below the moving averages which accelerated their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 1.0600, the support could be found at 1.0550.

MACD remained at the same level which confirmed the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0600 might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0550. We do not rule out and a short-term correction on profit-taking. Buyers may raise prices to 1.0700.

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Pound

General overview

Broad based US dollar weakness together with Ben Broadbent's supportive remarks did save pound from softening on Friday.

Current situation

The U.S. currency maintained control of the flows. The GBP/USD started the day around 1.2400, the pair slightly recovered overnight. Traders were able to push prices to the 1.2430 mark where the upward momentum faded. Sellers pushed prices lower in mid-Europe. The GBP/USD broke 1.2400, headed lower and tested 1.2300 during the NY hours. According to 1 hour chart the pair broke all moving averages and trended lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2400, the support is at 1.2300.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative readings, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI returned to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the sterling remains under pressure we expect a breakout of the 1.2300 level. On the other side, in order to recover some strength, GBP/USD needs to rise back and hold above 1.2400.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar slightly eased but remained in the green on Friday supported by strong US economy which made progress towards the Fed’s goals. The expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December gave the US dollar additional support.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted, the pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Friday. The dollar refreshed the multi year highs overnight. The pair remained in an ascending channel, staying around its upper boundary. The upward trajectory was stopped below 111.00 when the upward impulse lost its strength. The price traded above the moving averages which maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 111.00, the support comes in at 110.00.

The technical indicators stayed within positive readings. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair needs to stay above 110.00 to maintain its bullishness. Buyers may extend their gains if they break the level 111.00. In this scenario, the price will climb to 112.00. To ease the bulls' strength sellers need to push prices below 109.00.

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NZD/USD


General overview

The NZD strengthened on Friday following the US dollar broad weakness amid some profit taking from the sellers' part. However, the current recovery appeared to be limited as the kiwi remained under pressure amid the divergence between the Fed and RBNZ policy path.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate on Friday. The NZD traded at multi month lows, maintaining a gloomy trend. The NZD/USD met a barrier at 0.7000 which rejected prices upwards. Buyers partly erased their losses when the price moved higher and approached the level 0.7050 post-Europe open. However, buyers failed to reclaim the level, the price just pierced the level and dropped back. The kiwi remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs which accelerated their decline. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support can be found at 0.7000.

The indicators recovered from oversold levels, but remained within bearish territory. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI remained within oversold region.

Trading recommendations

If the bearish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 0.7000 and an extension of the downward trajectory. After breaking the level sellers may extend their gains advancing towards 0.6950. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above the resistance level 0.7100. However, we stay bearish until then.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices remained in the red staying around its lowest level since late May. Expectations regarding the Fed rate hike next month together with a stronger dollar weighed on the metal.

Current situation

Gold prices extended their weakness on Friday. After breaking the level 1210 dollars per ounce the pair found a descent support at 1200. Having touched the level the yellow metal bounced and returned to 1215. The bullish spike faded soon and the precious metal moved lower. The 1 hour chart shows that the XAU/USD remained below the moving averages which kept moving lower. The resistance is at 1210, the support comes in at 1200 dollars per ounce.

The indicators recommend short positions. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area.

Trading recommendations

To trigger additional downward momentum gold prices need to break the 1200 level. Sellers will aim at 1190 right after the break. As the precious metal is heavily oversold we do not rule out a correction. Besides, the pair refreshed its monthly lows around the strong psychological level which may reject prices upwards. To ease the downward pressure buyers need to break above 1230 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview


Oil prices remained slightly strengthened on Friday amid prospect of a potential output cut.

Current situation

Oil prices extended their losses during the Asian session on Friday. After breaking 46.50 prices moved lower and stopped a few pips above 45.50 dollars per barrel. Having touched the level the benchmark bounced off and reversed a minor part of its losses. The upward impetus stalled at 46.84 when the benchmark softened and returned below 46.50. The 100-EMA stopped oil recovery. The line rejected oil futures downwards which fell to the 50-EMA. The price remained in-between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the NY hours. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A break above 46.50 would open the way to 47.50. If the price overcomes 45.50 dollars per barrel we will neutralize our short term positive outlook. Inability to break above 46.50 will send this market downwards.

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DAX

Current situation

DAX started the last day of the week around 10700. The index slightly grew and strengthened to the 10744 mark. Having refreshed the daily high prices dropped below the level 10700 and softened to 10645 afterwards. According to 1 hour chart the benchmark traded around the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

We expect the market to become bearish soon. A firm break below 10600 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 10500.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened higher on Friday due to tech stocks continued recovery. The possible rate hike in December supported the stocks as well.

Current situation

NASDAQ Composite was unmoved at the open on Friday. The benchmark managed to defend 4830 mark. Prices stayed at 4830 during the day and moved lower in the NY session. The index hovered about the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA presented a moderate bearish slope. The 50-EMA moved upwards crossing the 100-EMA. The resistance is seen at 4830, the support is at 4800.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the current buyers' strength. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

NASDAQ is oversold and we expect a move lower. The index needs to break below 4800 to neutralize the current bid tone.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:21 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro slightly gained on the back of broad based dollar retracement. However, investors stood still awaiting for Draghi’s remarks in the evening. Moreover, growing political risks in Italy and France kept on weighing on the single European currency.

Current situation

The price seems to have met a strong barrier around 1.0550. The euro bounced off the level and regained some of its lost footing versus its American counterpart on Monday. Despite the current positive sentiment the European currency remained in the red and we consider the current rebound as corrective. The pair remained in a descending channel and bounced from its lower limit. Buyers struggled with sellers to take out the level 1.0650 ahead of the NY opening. According to the 1 hour chart prices broke the 50-EMA at the Europe open. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance is seen at 1.0650, the support could be found at 1.0600.

Technical indicators continued to recovery from oversold levels, but within bearish territory. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Besides, we noted a bullish divergence of MACD in the 1 hour chart. The RSI indicator lost downward strength and headed north.

Trading recommendations

A minor dollar retracement triggered some profit taking move following the pair's recent decline. A further dollar weakness may extend the current euro recovery. The pair will maintain its bid tone if it consolidates above 1.0650. In the event that buyers manage to force the above 1.0650 the EUR/USD may extend its upside towards 1.0700.

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Pound

General overview

The pound was unmoved on the back of the empty calendar on Monday. In the light of this the dollar dynamics will remain the key driver for the GBP/USD pair in the short-term. Meanwhile, the dollar became more optimistic after Donald Trumps’ elections victory hoping that his fiscal policy will support economy growth expectations.

Current situation

The pound remained inactive trading in a tight range 1.2320 – 1.2370 during the Asian session on Monday. The sellers found a temporally support at 1.2300 and took a breath consolidating their gains. The sterling spiked upwards in the mid-Europe and tested 1.2400 ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs presented a moderate bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

The indicators remained within negative territory and slightly changed from previous week readings. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A clear strength above the immediate resistance may pave way for continuation of the pair's upward trajectory towards 1.2450 where the 200-EMA stands and may limit its upside tone. If a gloomy trend remains intact sellers will push the pair further and may refresh lows at 1.2200.

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Yen

General overview

The yen posted losses on Monday amid a weaker Merchandise Trade Balance release. The dollar finds buying interest amid rising bets for an eventual Fed rate-hike action.

Current situation

Even though the USD/JPY pair was unable to climb higher and retreated almost immediately after testing 111.00 the pair remained in the green figures on Monday. The price remains in an upward channel and slightly moved from its upper boundary. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance can be found at 111.00, the support comes in at 110.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. We also noted a bearish divergence of MACD in the 1 hour chart. The RSI indicator remains within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

A failure to break 111.00 may lead to the dollar softening and its decline to 110.00. A break below the level will suggests further weakness towards 109.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The Canadian dollar traded lower on Monday as growing oil prices weighed on commodity currencies like CAD. A weak wholesale Sales report weighed on the CAD as well.

Current situation

The pair remained in a long term upward channel on Monday. Traders made an attempt to break the channel lower limit but failed. The bearish spike faded at 1.3434 and the price returned to 1.3470 post Europe open. Sellers took another chance to reclaim the level in the North American session. The pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving presented a strong support for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.3540, the support can be found at 1.3470.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

The longer term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above the 1.3400 support area. If a bid tone remains intact the pair may strengthen to 1.3540. A break below 1.3470 will ease the buying pressure. A move lower will neutralize it.

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XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices recovered on Monday however a precious metal remained in the red amid revived hopes of a Fed rate-hike in December. Markets are waiting for Trump's fiscal policy, expecting a new boost of economic activity.

Current situation

Technically, market sentiment remained negative on Monday. Gold prices met a barrier around 1200 dollars per ounce. Sellers lost strength and the pair was able to recover. The price reversed direction and escalated to 1215 post-Europe open. The yellow metal broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 100-EMA slowed its further recovery holding it a few pips below the moving. All moving averages kept pointing lower. The resistance is at 1220, the support comes in at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The price may extend its gains if it breaks above 1220. A break above the level may send prices to 1230. If the market fails to maintain its positive sentiment the precious metal will weaken to 1200 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices rose on Monday amid renewed hopes that OPEC members will agree to freeze oil production at the meeting in Vienna.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted on Monday. Oil prices gapped higher at the open, prices jumped from 46.84 to 47.26 dollars per barrel. Brent continued strengthening after the gap and broke 47.50 in mid-Europe. After breaking the level crude oil price extended its gains towards 48.50. The benchmark bounced upwards from the 100-EMA during the European hours. After breaking the moving the price advanced towards the 200-EMA. The 50-EMA is turning upwards while the 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A strong breakdown and close above 47.50 could send prices higher towards 48.50. However, Brent is overbought and we do not exclude a large correction towards 45.50.

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DAX

European stocks traded in the green ahead of Draghi' remarks. The stocks turned positive when Draghi said that the regulator will implement all possible measures if necessary.

Current situation

DAX kept the rangebound stance unchanged. The price remained between 10700 and 10600 during the Monday's trades. The benchmark softened and tested 10600 in the Asian session and reversed its losses during the European hours. The 100-EMA appears to be a hard barrier to take out. Despite the downward pressure the index bounced any time it touched the moving. The 100-EMA is neutral while the 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Sellers struggled hard to push prices lower. Nevertheless the 10600 level is a hard obstacle on their way downwards. If succeeded they will drive DAX to 10500. A bid tone remains intact while the price is above 10600. Buyers will keep attacking 10700.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened in a flat, awaiting for (Fed) vice chair Stanley Fischer's remarks.

Current situation

The index preserved its short term bid tone on Monday. The price traded in a tight range a few pips above 2180. S&P500 traded above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth while the 100 and 200 EMAs presented a modestly bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2200, the support is at 2180.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator has lost upward strength consolidating within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

The upward trajectory lacked momentum. Traders seem to be unable to climb higher. We expect a move lower. A firm break below 2180 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 2160.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Nov 22, 2016 3:28 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar is still strong expecting a rate action by the Fed next month. Moreover, markets are waiting for new fiscal measures from Trump’s administration hoping them to boost the economy.

Current situation

The correction phase is still intact. The price traded below 1.0650 the whole day. Buyers failed to reclaim the level, the price bounced downwards every time it tested the level. The euro faced another wave of selling pressure ahead of the NY opening. Sellers pushed the price to 1.0600 and tested the level already in the North American session. According to the 1 hour chart the euro broke the 50-EMA and touched the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA stopped the euro recovery and rejected it downwards. The price moved down and returned below the 50-EMA. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD decreased which confirmed the current strength of sellers. RIS remained within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The euro inability to break 1.0650 increases chances to the downside movement. A failure to reclaim the level may lead to a drop towards 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound got under pressure on Tuesday despite the positive Industrial Trends Survey. The sterling weakened amid the dollar growing strength.

Current situation

GBP/USD's selling pressure is back. The pound successfully tested 1.2500 but failed to retake the level. The price reversed its direction and sharply dropped ahead of the Europe opening. Sellers drove prices lower and tested 1.2400 in the New York session. The pound touched the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair failed to hold above the moving and faced its rejection afterwards. The GBP/USD declined and snapped the 50 and 100 EMAs ahead of the NY opening. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD decreased which confirmed the current strength of sellers. RIS moved towards the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to sell while we see the pound below 1.2500. After breaking 1.2400 bears will be focused at 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened after the earthquake news. However, the Japanese currency weakened afterwards following Kuroda’s remarks that the Japanese economy steadily keeps recovering.

Current situation

The yen stayed within a narrow flat trading around multi-month highs on Tuesday. The price remained between 111.00 and 110.50 during the day. The USD/JPY traded well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 112.00, the support comes in at 111.00.

MACD decreased which points to buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY remains bullish our next short-term target is 112.00. After breaking the level we may see the pair extending its rise towards 113.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar strengthened on the back of Assistant Governor Kent upbeat speech on Tuesday. Moreover, high commodity prices helped the AUD/USD to recover.

Current situation

The AUD extended its recovery and broke the psychological 0.7400 barrier. Buyers had no strength to push prices higher and stayed around their recent high during the day. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support comes in at 0.7350.

MACD grew which points to sellers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Despite the recent growth the overall structure is firmly bearish. If the level 0.7400 holds the pair may soften to the multi-month lows at 0.7300. Should the pair consolidate above the level and the AUD may extend its gains to 0.7450.

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XAU/USD

Current situation

Gold prices recovery showed some signs of fatigue. Its inability to reclaim the 1220 barrier returned sellers to the market. The price bounced from the level and edged lower towards 1210 dollars per ounce. The upward trajectory was stopped by the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. Having faced rejection around the 100-EMA prices moved lower and returned below the 50-EMA in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which confirms sellers’ strength. RSI moved to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bearish for a further decline below 1210. After breaking 1210 the level 1200 dollars per ounce will come back to the radar.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged lower ahead of API inventory data in the NA session on Tuesday. Nevertheless, oil stays well supported by renewed hopes on final agreement between OPEC members over the output cut in December.

Current situation

Oil prices stayed around fresh monthly highs on Tuesday. Buyers failed to extend the gap and after breaking 50.50 dollars per barrel turned downwards. The price sharply dropped below the level and hit 49.50 ahead of the NY session. The moving averages are turning upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which points to buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

A close above 50.50 dollars per barrel may generate fresh bullish signals for further advance towards 51.50. We do not rule out some profit-taking after the recent rally. If buyers will have difficulties to go higher the price may reversed its direction and drop to the 48.50 support area.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded in the green amid growing oil prices.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. After the jump the benchmark extended its gains. DAX30 moved to 10770 where buyers lost their legs. The price had to roll back and declined to 10700. The index traded above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral while the 50-EMA headed north. The resistance exists at 10800, the support stands at 10700.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI consolidated within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A move above the 10800 level will favor an advance up to the 10900 region. A failed test of the 10800 barrier may cause profit-taking and a fall towards 10600.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street edged higher hitting record highs on the back of Trump's promises to cut tax, to increase spending on infrastructure and healthcare industries.

Current situation

NASDAQ opened higher and was able to escalate through 4865 to 4883. After refreshing the weekly high the price rolled back and returned to below 4865. The benchmark remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral while the 50-EMA headed north crossing the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 4900, the support comes in at 4865.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remains within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

We do not rule out further extension towards 4900. A bounce from the overbought levels may cause it drop to 4835.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:53 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro weakened on the back of stronger dollar. The dollar was strong ahead of FOMC minutes. Besides, the possible rate hike by the Fed supports the US currency.

Current situation

The euro continued to lose its value on Wednesday. The price slightly recovered and tested the level 1.0650 in the Asian session. The downward pressure increased ahead of the Europe opening when the price sharply dropped towards 1.0600. The pair broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The lines appeared to be a tough nut to crack and the pair faced rejection just after testing the moving averages. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

Bears will remain in the driver's seat until the level 1.0650 holds. The level 1.0550 we see as the next intraday support and probable bearish target. Conversely, a break above 1.0650 will trigger the next leg of upward move for the pair.

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Pound

General overview

A stronger dollar weighed on the pound which is still weak amid the Brexit concerns.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate on Wednesday. Traders approached the support 1.2400 overnight and broke below it with Europe opening. After breaking the level sellers drove the price lower towards its immediate support at 1.2300. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and move towards the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100 EMAs are turning downwards while the 200-EMA is neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the GBP/USD pair consolidates below 1.2400 we expect its further extension towards 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

Japanese stocks were closed amid Labor Thanksgiving Day. The market was under external factors influence.

Current situation

The ascending channel pattern is still intact. After reaching the level 111.00 buyers took a pause and continued moving higher in the mid-European session. The pair broke the level 111.00 and jumped to 112.00. Having tested the level the price trended towards 113.00. The price spent the day above the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs are heading higher. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

Inability to extend further gains may increase risks for a much-needed correction. In this scenario sellers may lead prices towards 109.00 through 110.00. If the upward pressure persists we will see the level 113.00 test soon.

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NZD/USD

General overview

Kiwi weakened following the dollar strengthening. The dollar edged higher in the light of the latest US data which had showed the US economy growing strength.

Current situation

We maintain a short-term bearish outlook for the pair. Sellers seem to be guarding 0.7100 level rejecting prices downwards on every attempt to an upside. The NZD retreated from the daily high and declined to the nearest level 0.7050 post-Europe open on Wednesday. The level slowed down the downward momentum for a while and was broken afterwards. Sellers pushed the price to 0.7000. The 50-EMA rejected the price in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.7000.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was in a neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The NZD/USD pair will maintain negative tone until its stays below 0.7100. After breaking 0.7050 the level 0.7000 will come back to the radar. Should the kiwi bounce of 0.7050 the price may extend its gains towards 0.7100.

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XAU/USD

General overview

The dollar strengthened amid strong Durable Goods Orders and Housing Price Index. The latested US data weighed on the yellow metal prices.

Current situation

In terms of technicals the bearish trend remained intact. Markets were calm ahead of the bunch of U.S. data. Gold prices were not able to record any meaningful recovery on Wednesday and continued consolidating within a narrow band near last week lows. A new sellers’ attack pushed prices lower. The XAU/USD broke 1200 and tested 1190 ahead of NA opening. The price spent the day below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept moving lower. The resistance exists at 1200, the support stands at 1190 dollars per ounce.

The chart slightly changed from yesterday. The indicators MACD and RSI still recommend short positions.

Trading recommendations

A breakout of 1210 would aim us for 1200. A daily close above 1220 may generate fresh bullish signal for further advance towards 1230 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices stuck around three weeks highs being unable to extend their gains amid growing concerns that OPEC members will not agree to cut oil production.

Current situation

Oil prices remained in an ascending channel, trading near its lower boundary. After refreshing weekly highs Brent futures retreated as buyers took a breath before going higher. The benchmark extended its recovery climbing upwards with a timid pace. The price approached 49.50 ahead of the NY session. The price stayed around the 200-EMA during the day. The 200-EMA moved downwards, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remains within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

The longer term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 48.50. A move below the level would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. Sellers will drag prices towards 47.50. Meanwhile, a move higher may extend current gains towards 50.00.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks positive sentiment switched to negative one amid growing concerns over banking crisis in Italy.

Current situation

DAX encountered significant losses on Wednesday. Prices retreated from the weekly highs and moved lower. The benchmark broke 10700 and approached 10600 in the mid-European session. DAX broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA presented a solid support and may slow down downward trajectory. The 50-EMA pointed higher, while 100 and 200 EMA were neutral. The resistance exists at 10700, the support stands at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

If pressure persists the 10600 level will remain the key support area to watch for. A break below will open the way towards 10500.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower as health sectors lad shares lower.

Current situation

The index remained onto historical highs on Wednesday. The upward impetus faded above 2200, the price moved lower and stopped a few pips below the level. The index traded well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages maintained bullish slope. The resistance is at 2220, the support comes in at 2200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

As the index is overbought we expect a short term correction. The price may return to the 2180 region.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:23 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro edged higher on the back of the Business Climate report in Germany. Besides the dollar retracement amid Thanksgiving day helped the euro to strengthen.

Current situation

The EUR/USD had a positive day on Thursday. The price remained in a descending channel. The pair rebounded from its recent lows and regained some lost footing versus its American counterpart. Traders pushed the euro higher and broke 1.0550 ahead of the European opening. The current rebound we consider corrective. The price remained below the moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD pair might extend its recovery if it breaks 1.0600. After breaking the level the price will move towards 1.0650. A failure here will return sellers who will push prices towards 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened amid a dollar correction and a better-than-expected UK's Mortgage Approvals for October.

Current situation

The pound bounced off 1.2400 and reversed some of its early losses during the European hours on Thursday. The pair broke upwards the 50 and 100 EMAs which offered the pound an immediate support. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral while the 100-EMA is heading upwards and the 50-EMA is directed downwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The technical indicators turned flat. MACD indicator was at the centerline. RSI stayed within neutral readings.

Trading recommendations

A dollar correction together with some UK positive data could support sterling for a short time. A further recovery towards 1.2500 is expected.

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Yen

General overview

The yen weakened against the dollar amid upbeat US data and the latest Fed's minutes which supported optimism regarding the possible Fed rate hike in December.

Current situation

The USD/JPY extended its gains on Thursday. A new buying interest pushed prices higher. The pair broke the 113.00 level and refreshed multi month high at 113.47. The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A break above 113.00 will open doors for the pair to refresh yearly highs. After breaking the level traders may move prices towards 114.00. Pairs’ inability to extend its upward trajectory may lead to a roll back and decline to 111.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The Canadian dollar weakened amid the oil prices decrease and due to a stronger dollar.

Current situation

The USD/CAD was unable to break 1.3540 and retreated from the level right after its test. The USD fell on profit-taking. Sellers pushed prices towards 1.3470. The pair touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs continued with their growth. The resistance is at 1.3540, the support comes in at 1.3470.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 1.3470 it may come under new wave of selling pressure. Should the USD/CAD bounce from the current support the price will return to its recent high at 1.3540.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices are under pressure amid a stronger dollar. The dollar remains bullish amid strong expectations for a U.S. rate hike in 2016.

Current situation

Gold prices recovered and moved from February lows on Thursday. The 1180 level appeared to be a strong barrier which rejected the price. The XAU/USD recovered to 1190 dollars per ounce post-European open and struggled with the level the rest of the day. The moving averages slightly changed since yesterday. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator is near undervalued territory.

Trading recommendations

Gold prices recovery will remain limited as long as the price holds below the 1200 region. A move higher may ease the current downward pressure and will open the way towards 1210 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices hold still amid uncertainty about OPEC final decision about its production cut.

Current situation

Oil prices remained within narrow range on Thursday. The price stayed between 49.00 and 49.50 during the day. Brent was around the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart which presented a solid resistance for the price. The 200-EMA moved downwards while the 100 and 50 EMAs turned upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

A sharp breakout above 49.50 could spark a further growth towards 50.50 in the coming days. On the other hand a move below 48.50 will neutralize our near term positive outlook.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks sentiment remained positive amid Donald Trump’s plans to rise fiscal spending and cut taxes. Besides, healthcare sector led shares higher.

Current situation

DAX bounced off 10600 level on Thursday. Traders moved the benchmark to 10700 but failed to reclaim the level. The price just pierced the level and rolled back. DAX30 spent the day around the 50-EMA which limited its further recovery. The 50-EMA direction is upwards while the 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 10700, the support stands at 10600.

MACD traded to the downside. RSI was neutral on yesterday's trades.

Trading recommendations

A break above 10700 will trigger the next leg of move for the index towards 10800. If buyers fail to regain the level the price may bounce off and move to 10600.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

The index slightly changed on yesterday’s trades. The price stayed in a tight range around 4850. The price stayed above the moving averages. The 200-EMA is neutral in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 50 and 100 are heading higher. The resistance is at 4865, the support comes in at 4830.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The near-term upward trend remained intact. A break above 4865 will rise prices to 4884 and 4900. A move below 4830 will reinforce sellers’ positions. If they start to challenge this 4830 area it is likely to break.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:45 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.11.2016

Euro

General overview


The euro strengthened against the dollar despite the empty calendar in Eurozone.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Friday. The euro bounced from the multi-months low and recovered. The pair pushed away from 1.0550 towards 1.0600 post-European open. After a brief pause around the level the price extended its recovery toward 1.0623 but failed to move higher. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and headed towards the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA acted as a resistance and rejected the price. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the 1.0600 level the price may recover further and test 1.0650. A move higher may neutralize the current selling pressure. The EUR/USD may extend its gains to 1.0700. Otherwise, sellers’ return will send this market to the new lows at 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

Pound was little changed on Friday despite positive UK GDP data release.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained confined within a trading range between 1.2400 and 1.2500 on Friday. Nevertheless the pressure persisted and the price stayed at the lower limit of the band on Friday. The price stayed around the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA went upwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The indicators MACD and RSI slightly changed from Friday and remained neutral.

Trading recommendations

The overall picture is bearish. We expect from price a move lower. Sellers’ first target is the level 1.2400. After breaking the level sellers may lead the pair to 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar jumped to the eight month high against the yen due to US bond yields growth during the Asian session after Thanksgiving day off.

Current situation

The ascending channel remained intact. The price bounced from its upper limit around 114.00 and edged lower. The downward momentum lost its leg at the lower limit of the band around 113.00. The price just touched the level at the beginning of the European session and stayed around it till the end of the day. According to the 1 hour chart the price met barrier at the 50-EMA which presented a strong support for it. After touching the moving the price remained around it. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY will leave the upward channel if it moves below 112.00. Sellers need to drive prices below 111.00 to neutralize the current upward pressure. Otherwise a move above 113.00 will return a positive sentiment sending prices for the 114.00 level test.

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AUD/USD

General overview

Positive sentiment around base metals, especially ore hellped the Aussie to strenghen on Friday.

Current situation

The pair extended its near-term upward trajectory and formed a higher high on Friday. The Australian dollar pierced the level 0.7450 but failed to reclaim it. The price edged lower right after the test and stayed around 0.7450 till the NY session open. The pair retreated from the daily high and returned to the 0.7400 region during the NA session. The price struggled with the bearish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. Even though the price broke the moving the 50-EMA slowed down its growth. The moving averages extended their declines in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7450, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD entered the positive area. RSI grew and approached the overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

A break above 0.7450 might force the pair to resume its upward trajectory towards 0.7500. On the other hand if the AUD/USD stays below 0.7450 the price may move down and negate its recent gains. In this scenario sellers will lead prices to 0.7350 and 0.7300.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices showed a limited growth amid dollar broad base retracement.

Current situation

Gold prices remained in the red despite Friday’s recovery. Gold grew above the U.S. dollar on Friday. The price climbed from 1170 to 1190 where the upward impetus faded. The price moved below the level 1190 and stayed there during the European hours. The yellow metal faced a downward pressure in the NY session. The 1 hour chart showed that the price struggled with a bearish 50-EMA and lost the game. The 50-EMA rejected the price which bounced downwards. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

MACD slightly grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory.


Trading recommendations

We expect a new move lower towards 1170.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower amid dollar positive tone. Moreover, investors remain cautious ahead of OPEC agreement announcement regarding output cut.

Current situation

Oil prices turned bearish on Friday. The price retreated from the weekly high and moved below 48.50 approaching the level 47.50 post NY open. The benchmark pushed away from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price approached the bullish 50-EMA and tested it in the mid-American session. The 100-EMA is neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 47.50. If bears retain control the price will move lower towards 46.50. In order to recover some strength, Brent needs to rise back and hold above 48.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks moved lower on Friday amid energy stocks decline following oil prices weakening.

Current situation

DAX30 traded in a tight range between 10700 and 10670 on Friday. The index headed lower and touched the lower band of the range in the NY session. The benchmark stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 10700, the support stands at 10600.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

The index seems to have some difficulties to move above 10700. The price bounced from the level any time it tries to break it. If buyers succeed DAX30 may strengthen further to 10800. To ease the current buying momentum the price needs to get below 10600.

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S&P500

General overview

American stocks hit record highs on Friday supported by consumer staples and technology stocks. The market was thin and closed early amid Black Friday.

Current situation

S&P500 was in buy mode on Friday. The index traded with slight gains and was able to grow above previous day’s top. The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their growth. The resistance is at 2220, the support comes in at 2200.

MACD traded to the downside while RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We remain bullish near-term and believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. We expect further extension to 2220 now.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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