"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:06 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro slowed down with its growth despite the positive EU data. Consumer Price index met traders' expectations in France while the EU's Industrial Production came in better than expected.

Current situation

The euro extended its near-term upward trajectory in the early trades on Thursday. The single European currency broke 1.0600 during the Asian night trade and advanced towards 1.0650 afterwards. The pair pierced the 1.0650 hurdle post-European open and immediately returned below the broken level. EUR/USD rally seems to have ran out of steam as we witnessed the price inability to reclaim 1.0650 in the late European session. The spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100-EMAS pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left neutral territory and headed north.

Trading recommendations

Even though the technical picture presents a bullish tone we expect a correction based on profit taking which may start as soon as the price drops below the 1.0600 level. In this case the spot may reach 1.0550. A move below 1.0550 will neutralize the current buying sentiment.

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Pound

General overview

There were no major economic releases in the UK on Thursday. Donald Trump failed to give investors details on his future economic policy. The traders' disappointment triggered a sharp dollar sell-off which helped the pound to reverse some ground. Later in the day we expect to hear some Fed's representatives including J.Yellen.

Current situation

The pound kept its upbeat tone unchanged vs. its US peer on Thursday. The Cable broke 1.2200 during the early hours and extended its bullishness afterwards. Buyers kept pushing the pair upwards and tested the resistance 1.2300 at the beginning of the European session. After touching the level the spot rolled back gathering steam for another leg higher. The short term upward momentum, however, seems to be fading as the Cable kept losing its upward strength during the late European hours. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards and pierced the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and headed upwards.

Trading recommendations

Despite the recent rally the pair remained in a descending channel. If the spot fails to retake 1.2300 the pound may fall to 1.2200 on profit-taking. A close above 1.2300 may extend the current bullishness towards 1.2400.

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Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened after Trump's press-conference where the President-elect Donald Trump failed to provide investors with enough details regarding his future economic plans. Japanese Current Account came in better than expected supporting the national currency.

Current situation

The US dollar extended its sell off on Thursday. A fresh bout of selling pressure drove the USD/JPY pair below 115.00 at the open on Thursday. The US dollar kept losing its value afterwards and reached the 114.00 handle during European morning trade. Sellers failed to regain the level and continued struggling with the handle ahead of the NY session opening, According to the 4 hours chart the price continued staying below the moving averages which started turning downwards. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI remained within oversold readings favoring a new move downwards.

Trading recommendations

Inability to break below 114.00 may cause some profit-taking towards 115.00. If the pressure persists the next probable sellers target will become the level 113.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The US dollar retracement after the president-elect Donald Trump helped the Canadian dollar to extend its gains. Moreover, the CAD received additional support from the recovery in crude oil prices. We expect to see fresh figures over New Housing Price later the day.

Current situation

Bears had the ball and kept pushing the pair lower on Thursday. The US dollar had a negative start to the day. The major found fresh offers around 1.3190 at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. The USD/CAD pair broke 1.3120 at the early European trades and kept trending towards 1.3050 which it touched in the mid-European session. The downward move lost its momentum after touching the handle and the spot stayed around it till the North American session opening. The currency pair continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and the 200 EMAs downwards. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator stayed within the negative territory and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/CAD fails to regain 1.3050 buyers may reverse some of their losses and push the pair back to 1.3120. A break below 1.3050 will revive bearishness towards 1.2980.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Unclear Donald Trump's plans regarding his future economic/fiscal policies boosted gold prices towards 7-week highs.

Current situation

The gold held a bullish tone on Thursday. Traders pushed the metal higher and broke 1200 in the early European trades. The pair accelerated its rally after the hurdle break and advanced towards 1210 dollars per ounce afterwards. The gold spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed north crossing the 200-EMA upwards. The 200-EMA stayed flat while the 100-EMA pointed higher. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

Daily studies turned bullish and support further upside. A break above 1210 may open the way towards 1220. A downtrend will start as soon, as gold prices drop below the support level 1180 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude some profit-taking after the recent rally.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices received support from the US dollar retracement. However, its growth is limited amid crude inventories growth.

Current situation

Oil prices maintained their bid tone on Thursday. The 55.50 hurdle stopped buyers for a while. The benchmark rolled back after testing the level in the Asian session and made another attempt to reclaim the level during the European hours. Buyers succeeded to break higher in the mid-European session. The benchmark extended its gains towards 56.50 ahead of the NA session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50 and 100 EMAs in the mid-European trades. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remained intact. A break above 56.50 risks a growth towards the resistance at 57.50 dollars per barrel. A daily close below 55.50 will increase risks of a downside rejection.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks moved lower following Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare sector decrease after Donald Trump’s press-conference where he took on drug prices.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the daily open and lost its strength further afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11600 during the early European hours on Thursday. However, all sellers’ attempts to extend their gains failed and the benchmark remained around 11600 ahead of the NY session opening. The price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Thursday. Once we break above 11600, we think that the 11700 level will be next.

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SPX500

Current situation

The index suffered a short lived downward movement on Thursday. Traders led the price lower and touched the level 2260 in early European trades. The benchmark retracement was triggered by some profit taking after Wednesday's rally. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and bounced off the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market if the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI was within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe the index will remain neutral tending to move lower. The possible sellers' targets are the marks 2260 and 2254. A bounce off 2260 may extend the current bullishness towards 2280.


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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:51 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The mixed US data supported the dollar on Friday. Retail Sales disappointed investors while Producer Price Index came in better than expected. The euro weakened despite upbeat Wholesale Price Index in Germany and Consumer Price Index in Spain.

Current situation

The euro made an attempt to return its upward bias on Friday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian pull back as sellers met a barrier at 1.0600 which rejected the spot upwards. The EUR/USD pair grew and touched 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The single European currency had reversed all its losses by the NY session opening. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA touched the 200-EMA. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI oscillator was within overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

Inability to break above 1.0650 may return selling interest to markets. Once we break below 1.0600, we think that the 1.0550 and 1.0500 levels will be next. In order to recover EUR/USD needs to rise back and hold above 1.0650.

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Pound

General overview

The US dollar strengthened on the back of upbeat Producer Price Index. Meanwhile, the Cable had to retreat amid a stronger dollar and renewed concerns over a hard Brexit.

Current situation

The recent pull back lost its strength above 1.2100 in the early trades on Friday. The pound ran through fresh bids post London’s opening and sharply turned around. Buyers led the price upwards and touched the level 1.2200 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the upward momentum faded, the pound sharply dropped and extended its weakness to 1.2118. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving average limited its growth acting as a solid resistance. All moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.

MACD traded to the downside. RSI oscillator remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The GBPUSD pair could gain momentum, if it recovers above the 1.2200 area. A break above the hurdle will maintain bulls in the driver's seat towards the level 1.2300. Conversely, a move below 1.2100 will signal the return of sellers who may drag the price to 1.2000.

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Yen

General overview

The US dollar tried to reverse its recent losses vs. the yen. Meanwhile, markets ignored Chinese data: Trade Balance, Exports and Imports.

Current situation

The US dollar temporally retuned to its upward trajectory after the Asian decline on Friday. Buyers managed to maintain their bid tone and broke 115.00 ahead of the NY session opening. However, the upmove soon lost momentum and the USD/JPY pair returned below 115.00 in the NA session. Traders were driving the price towards 114.00 the second part of the North American session. The pair bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages headed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 114.00 and 113.00 unless buyers manage to consolidate above 116.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The US dollar grew vs. its Australian peer on the back of the US data when upbeat Producer Price Index overwhelmed negative Retail Sales report.

Current situation

The dollar retracement assisted to the Aussie recovery in the early trades on Friday. After posting the weekly high at 0.7516 the pair slightly rolled back and returned to the nearest hurdle at 0.7500 on Thursday. The spot spent the night and morning sessions on Friday around the level struggling to move higher. A fresh selling interest drove prices to 0.7450 in the NY session. Sellers lost their strength after testing the level 0.7450 which rejected the spot to 0.7500. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was within the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe that after a close above the resistance at 0.7500 the spot AUD/USD may extend its growth to 0.7550. On the other hand, a sharp breakout below 0.7450 could spark a further incline towards 0.7400 in the coming sessions.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold maintained its bid tone on Friday as the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s future policies supported the demand for the precious metal.

Current situation

The gold extended its upward momentum on Friday. A bout of fresh buying interest pushed the spot upwards. The price pushed away from 1190 at the beginning of the European session and reached 1200 dollars per ounce. The 1 hour chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1200, the support stands at 1190 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bullish for now. Our next short-term objective for the pair is 1200, after which we may see the pair extending its rise towards the 1210. However, gold is overbought and needs some technical correction. We believe the price may decline to 1180 on profit-taking.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices were unmoved on Friday as investors kept wondering whether the OPEC and non-OPEC members will abide the recent output cut agreement reached in 2016.

Current situation

After reaching 56.50 dollars per barrel Brent rolled back to 55.50. The benchmark started Friday in a consolidation. Brent extended its sideways trades during the European session. The “black gold” was range-bound-to lower during the day. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA were neutral while the 200-EMA headed higher. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the positive area and headed downwards.

Trading recommendations

The bearish sentiment remained intact on Friday. A move below 55.50 dollars per barrel suggests further weakness of the oil prices. After breaking 54.50 the level 53.50 will come to the radar.

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DAX

General overview

European markets sentiment improved on Friday after the recent remarks by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Financial stocks and automobile sector were broadly higher while mining stocks moved lower.

Current situation

The index traded in its familiar range on Friday. The price was trading between 11600 and 11500 levels. Traders were unable to choose direction and were holding the benchmark in the range during the day. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The price is unable to climb above 11600. Sellers might force DAX to resume its downward trajectory towards 11500.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street traded higher on Friday amid the upbeat U.S. quarterly reports.

Current situation

The index was flat the first part of the day. The benchmark hovered above 5020 handle in a narrow range of 50 pips or less. NASDAQ turned higher in the North American session. The price rallied to 5060 and tested the level post-NY session opening. The index broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 1 hour chat. The benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages afterwards. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If bears return control the next intraday supports and probable bearish target is 5020. Conversely, a daily close above 5060 will open the way towards 5080.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:50 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The euro got a minor support after the EU's trade Balance. Today we expect to see Economic Sentiment for January from ZEW which is expected to show upbeat figures.

Current situation

The euro weakened on Monday. After the gap downwards the pair kept moving in the red. Sellers broke the level 1.0600 ahead of the European opening. After breaking the level sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 1.0550. However, EUR/USD's momentum remained positive despite the ongoing decline. The euro stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left the overvalued territory and moved south.

Trading recommendations

Sellers are likely to extend their gains in the short-term. The first sellers’ target is 1.0550. A close below the handle will generate fresh selling pressure towards 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The Pound has hit its lowest level for more than three months on Monday. The pound fell ahead of Theresa May’s speech tomorrow. Investors expect to hear from the PM how the UK's government plans to leave the EU.

Current situation

The pound gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.2184 to 1.1197, however, it was able to reverse a minor portion of its losses afterwards. Buyers pushed the Cable higher and almost reached 1.2100 hurdle at the beginning of the European trades. Bulls failed to retake the level and stepped back. The sterling dropped below the moving averaged and stayed there in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages headed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2100, the support comes in at 1.2000.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI stayed within the negative area.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2000. After the level break sellers may aim at 1.1900.

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Yen

Current situation

The US dollar gapped lower at the weekly open and extended its losses afterwards. Sellers tested the level 114.00 and immediately bounced off the handle. The pair spent the European trades above 114.00 staying in a narrow range. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

USD/JPY is having difficulties to go any lower. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 115.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 116.00 level.

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NZD/USD

Current situation

The kiwi returned to the negative territory on Monday. The New Zealand dollar gapped lower at the daily open. However, buyers managed to erase all losses and even showed fresh gains moving the price to 0.7150. After touching the resistance bulls lost their upward momentum and had to retreat. Sellers seized control and pushed the spot below 0.7100. After breaking the handle the kiwi continued losing its value heading towards 0.7050. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed upwards while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator headed downwards.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. We think that the NZD/USD will reach the 0.7050 level first. The spot may extend its decline afterwards aiming at 0.7000.

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XAU/USD

Current situation

Gold extended its vertical rise on Monday. Buyers were stronger and moved the price higher. They broke the resistance 1200 dollars per ounce and almost reached 1210. The pair lost its strength a few pips below the level and rolled back to 1200 in the European session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A close below the 1200 level would generate negative signal and risk further easing. We expect a further advance towards 1190 dollars per ounce afterwards.

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Brent

Current situation

Brent presented a modest bearish tone on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours bears seized the ball and pushed the price below 55.50 dollars per barrel in the European session. After breaking the level sellers kept moving oil prices towards 54.50. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 200 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. Sellers may extend their bearishness if they fixate below 55.50 dollars per barrel. After a daily close below the level we could see Brent extending down to the 53.50 region during the next days.

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DAX

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The index humped from 11606 to 11562 and traded mixed afterwards. The benchmark remained in a familiar range tending to move lower. The price broke the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart in the European session. The 200-EMA headed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMA were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a downtrend movement after the price break 11500. The next probable bearish target is 11400.

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S&P500

Current situation

The index edged lower on Monday. Sellers pushed the price from 2273 to 2264 during the first half of the day. The price tested the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The 50 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI left the undervalued readings and entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the downtrend will start as soon, as the price drops below the support level 2260. The benchmark may slow down to the 2240 area afterwards.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:24 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.01.2017

Euro

General overview

Economic Sentiment in Germany for January disappointed investors. The market focused on Consumer Price Index in Germany and the EU.

Current situation

We believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. The pair remained in a near term upward channel on Tuesday. Bulls kept control and pushed the price higher in the Asian session. The euro rallied and broke 1.0650 in the mid-Asian session. The single European currency extended its gains afterwards and reached 1.0700 in the mid European session. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and crossed the 50-EMA upwards. The price stayed above the moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left the neutral area and returned to the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. The EURUSD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.0700. After the hurdle break the next level to focus on is 1.0750. We also do not exclude a roll back on profit taking after Tuesday’s rally. Sellers may erase some losses if manage to lead the spot below 1.0650, en route to 1.0600.

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Pound

General overview

All eyes are on Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings where we expect green figures.

Current situation

Bulls were gradually gaining more overall control on Tuesday. A sharp short-term rally helped the Cable to close Monday's gap. The pound broke 1.2100 in the Asian session and touched 1.2200 ahead of the European session opening. The sterling momentum began to fade after testing the level. The price rolled back, but remained around 1.2200. The price grew and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below its moving averages which kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We may see renewed bullish pressure if the GBP/USD pair closes above 1.2200. A daily close above 1.2200 would risk a further rise of the pair towards 1.2300. If the hurdle holds the spot may return to red and refresh lows at 1.2000.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar edged lower on expectations of Trump’s inauguration in Friday. Moreover, Industrial Production in Japan came in a line with expectations thus supporting the national currency.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair extended its bearishness on Tuesday. The US dollar continued to trade in negative ground. Sellers broke below 114.00 during the early Asian hours. The spot kept losing its value afterwards and reached 113.00 in the mid-European session. Bears managed to reclaim the level ahead of the NY session opening. The price remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI stayed within oversold readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. To trigger additional downward momentum towards 112.00 the price needs to consolidate below the level 113.00. A failure to retake 113.00 may cause some profit-taking. Buyers may return the price to 114.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The broad base dollar retracement helped the CAD to strengthen. Investors’ attention now turns to the BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rate Decision.

Current situation

The USD/CAD recovery stalled at 1.3190. The spot came across sellers’ pressure around the level and sharply dropped in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price broke 1.3120 and tested 1.3050 in the European trade. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA downwards. The price continued developing well below its moving averages afterwards. The moving averages kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and stayed within oversold territory.

Trading recommendations

The bearish trend remained intact. We suppose the USD/CAD pair will break the 1.0350 level first. Having overcome the first target the spot might advance towards 1.2980.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold strengthened amid risk-off sentiments ahead of Theresa May's speech which was expected to be hard.

Current situation

Gold had another positive day on Tuesday. The XAU/USD pair jumped to a fresh weekly high in the Asian session. Buyers moved the price upwards and broke 1210 dollars per ounce in the early European trades. Having broken the level the gold spot extended its gains and approached the 1220 hurdle where the buying impetus faded. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

Sustained break above 1220 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. Otherwise sellers may lead prices towards 1210 and 1200 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Brent strengthened on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC members will keep to their production cut deal.

Current situation

Bulls fought back control and pushed the price higher on Tuesday. The benchmark jumped to 56.50 ahead of the European session opening. The upmove lost its legs after the level test. The price bounced off the 50-EMA and crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. If the buying interest remains intact we don’t rule out further extension of the benchmark to 57.50 and 58.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks moved lower following the mining and automobile sectors decline.

Current situation

DAX turned lower on Tuesday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11500 during the Asian trades and headed towards 11400 in the European session. However, a fresh buying interest around the handle helped DAX reverse daily losses and returned to opening prices. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral territory and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11400. The next bearish target is 11300.

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NASDAQ

General overview

The US stocks turned red at the NY session opening following the hard Theresa May's remarks regarding Brexit. The markets digested as well and Morgan Stanley corporate earnings report.

Current situation

The index lost its upward momentum on Tuesday. NASDAQ met a barrier at 5060 and had to retreat. The benchmark gave up its gains and edged lower during the Asian hours. Bears kept pushing the price lower heading towards 5020 in the European session. However, sellers met buyers; resistance around the handle and had to retreat. The index turned around and reversed a minor portion of its losses. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued territory and entered the neutral one.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. A break below 5020 may suggest further weakness of the benchmark. A break through here will turn attention to the 4980 level.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:09 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The dollar erased some of its losses vs. the euro ahead of J. Yellen’s speech on Wednesday. Moreover, the greenback got support from US consumer price index which coincided with investors’ expectations. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision later the day.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place on Wednesday. The euro completed an upside impulse and retreated from the weekly high at 1.0716. The current rebound should be considered corrective amid profit-taking after the recent rally. The pair returned below 1.0700 in the early trades on Wednesday and stayed around the level during the European trades. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.0650. When we break the level the support 1.0600 comes back into play. However, we believe the euro is to remain supported in the short-term as long as 1.0500 is intact.

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Pound

General overview

Concerns regarding hard Brexit keep weighing on the cable. Despite the positive labor market data (Unemployment Rate remained unchanged, Claimant Count Change on the contrary increased) the pound weakened on Wednesday.

Current situation

The pound opened red against the dollar on Wednesday. The cable bounced off the border of the overbought zone and headed lower in the Asian session. Sellers broke the 1.2400 level in the early trades and tested 1.2300 in the European session. However, the 1.2300 handle stopped sellers' advance. After touching the level the price rolled back and hovered above the level ahead of the NY opening. The spot bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2200. After consolidation below the first target the GBP/USD may advance to the 1.2100 level.

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Yen

General overview

The US dollar took a breath reaching the 7-week lows while investors focused on J.Yellen’s speech.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained within a downtrend channel on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair found a solid support at 112.50. The mark rejected the spot upwards giving the US dollar a chance to reverse a minor portion of its losses. After breaking 113.00 in the Asian session the recovery stalled above the level during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 100 EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI left the oversold readings and moved higher.

Trading recommendations

We expect the USD/JPY pair to extend its bullishness in the short-term. Should the US dollar advance beyond the 114.00 level, the spot may extend its rally up to 114.50.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD maintained its upbeat tone vs. the US dollar getting support from oil prices dynamics. The upcoming labor market data may support the Australian dollar as well.

Current situation

The tone is still positive in the market. The AUD/USD pair stayed around 2-week highs flirting with the 0.7550 level. The price was confined within a tight trading range around the level tending to move lower. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI consolidated within overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a downward correction in the short-term. If we see a close below 0.7550 we will sell the spot. The potential bearish target is the 0.7500 handle.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold slowed down its rally after reaching 8-week highs amid the US dollar recovery and risk-on sentiment. All eyes were on inflation data and Yellen's speech on Wednesday.

Current situation

Gold prices remained in an ascending channel on Wednesday. After reaching the 4-weeks peaks on Tuesday the metal slightly retreated and approached the lower limit of its upward structure on Wednesday. The XAU/USD pair slightly declined in the Asian session and found some support at 1210 dollars per ounce. Sellers struggled hard to break below the level during the European hours. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the bullish 50-EMA. The price stayed above its moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A clear break below 1210 would indicate that the bearish phase has been resumed. The 1200 handle seems to be the next probable bearish target. Anyway the gold spot is still strong enough to move higher. A break above 1220 risks the 1230 hurdle.

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Brent

General overview


Brent declined despite the increased forecast from OPEC for demand for oil in 2017. Oil prices edged lower after OPEC raised its U.S. output forecast for 2017.

Current situation

Sellers took control of the flows on Wednesday. The last upward impetus stalled just above 56.50 dollars per barrel. The benchmark faced a downward rejection and dropped to 55.50 in the NY session on Tuesday. Sellers continued moving the price lower on Wednesday. Bears broke 55.50 dollars per barrel at the European session opening and headed south afterwards. The benchmark tested 54.50 in the mid-European session. The price broke all moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA remained neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed downwards.

Trading recommendations


As we see the market switched its tone to bearish. If the pressure persists sellers will remain in the driver’s seat. After a close below 54.50 we could see the benchmark extending its decline to 53.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders are looking for the ECB meeting results on Thursday.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open and reached 11600 after the jump. The benchmark failed to extend its gains and retreated immediately after the level test. Sellers kept moving DAX downwards during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark remained between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European session. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A move below 11500 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. If the DAX index fixates below the current support it may reach the 11400 area in the short term.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened in green as investors digested bank earnings reports awaiting for Janet Yellen's speech later the day.

Current situation

The index opened the day in green. The benchmark was able to grow and posted a daily high at 2268. S&P500 gave up its recent gains afterwards and eased towards 2260 in the European session. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the-50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The benchmark was between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs were flat while the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

If sellers keep control a close below 2260 might force the price to resume its downward trajectory towards the 2240 area.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:45 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The ECB left its rates unchanged: the deposit rate remained at -0.4% and the interest one at 0.0%. Moreover, the US dollar strengthened amid upbeat data. The Initial Jobless Claims came in green. Housing Starts showed strong figures as well. Investors’ attention now turns to Trump's inauguration which will take place on Friday.

Current situation

The downward trajectory lost its legs just below 1.0650 when sellers met a solid barrier which rejected the pair upwards. The euro reversed majority of its losses on Thursday. The spot broke 1.0650 ahead of the European session opening and headed towards 1.0700. However, the upward impetus soon faded, the recovery stalled above 1.0650. A fresh selling interest dragged the pair downwards. The spot broke 1.0650 and tested 1.0600 at the US session opening. The EUR/USD pair presented a neutral-to-bullish stance during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We became bearish regarding the pair now. A break below 1.0650 would increase a negative signal and risk further easing of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0600, en route to 1.0550.

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Pound

General overview

Housing Price Balance foe December came in worse than expecting slowing down the pound recovery on Thursday. The pound weakened further vs. the US dollar after the upbeat US data. We expect a number of UK's Retail Sales releases today which are expected with positive figures.

Current situation

The pound strengthened further on Thursday, sending the GBP/USD to its recent highs at 1.2400. The cable was able to reverse some of its losses amid broad dollar's weakness. Having found a local bottom at 1.2250 the spot reversed its direction and rallied upwards breaking 1.2300 in the European session. After passing the level the pair continued moving north targeting at 1.2400. Buying interest faded in the North American session. The price faced the downward rejection and turned lower. The price continued developing well between the 200 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI left the neutral area and entered overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The pound remained under the risk of falling deeper down. The 1.2400 hurdle coupled with the 200-EMA limited the pound further advance. A downtrend will start as soon, as the spot drops below the support level 1.2300. Further easing to 1.2200 is not ruled out. A break above 1.2400 will advance the spot to 1.2450.

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Yen

General overview

J. Yellen’s remarks coupled with strong data boosted the US dollar demand. The strong labor market data and Housing Starts release supported the greenback on Friday. All eyes are on Trump's inauguration.

Current situation

The pair remained in a short-term downward channel staying around its upper limit on Thursday. Buyers lost their momentum after touching 115.00. The US dollar was in a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions. Traders struggled with the hurdle to resume their advance. The level, however, turned out to be a solid obstacle to break. The US dollar got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the level. A fresh bout of buying interest supported the U.S. dollar. The major attacked the 115.00 hurdle with fresh vigour during the NY hours. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe that a break through 115.00 will put on hold bears’ plans. The potential buyers’ target is 116.00.

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NZD/USD

General overview

New Zealand Business PMI posted positive figures while Building Permits came in red. Moreover, the kiwi as a commodity currency was supported by oil prices positive dynamics. The recent US data weighed on the NZD as well.

Current situation

The Asian recovery lost its steam after testing the level 0.7200. The hurdle appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After touching the level the NZD rolled back in the Asian session and remained below the resistance during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart the spot hovered above its moving averages on Thursday. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

Inability to retake 0.7200 may reverse the market. A sharp breakout below 0.7150 could spark a further easing towards 0.7100 in the coming days.

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XAU/USD

General overview

The broad US dollar strengthening weighed on the precious metal. Besides a strong dollar gold prices softened amid the upbeat US data and the ECB decision to keep its rates unchanged.

Current situation

Gold prices remained under pressure on Thursday amid a strong dollar. The pair bounced off the 1200 psychological mark and remained around the handle during the day. The metal continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bearish for now. We would be selling gold only if the price drops below 1200. A firm break below 1200 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 1190 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

The US oil inventory draw gave a temporally support for oil prices. The market will be focused on Oil Rig Count in the coming sessions.

Current situation

Oil prices remained in red figures after Wednesday's bearish acceleration. Brent a little changed on the day and remained prone to more weakness on Thursday. The benchmark stayed neutral around 54.50 dollars per barrel flirting with the level during the European session. Oil price stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 100-EMA was flat while the 50-EMA headed lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

Near-term technical studies are in full bearish setup. A daily close below 53.50 dollars per barrel will pave way for further near-term downslide towards the very important 50.00 psychological mark.

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DAX

General overview

European bourses edged higher on Thursday after the ECB's decision to leave the rates unchanged. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while the financial sector shares moved broadly higher. Investors kept digesting Janet Yellen's comments. According to Yellen the Fed may raise the rates quickly this year.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open. However, the upmove lacked momentum immediately after the jump. The price softened filling the gap in the European session. Sellers broke 11600 and tried to push the price lower during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the index broke the 50-EMA upwards. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral territory close to the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, DAX30 needs to rise above 11600. However, as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11500.

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NASDAQ

General overview

The US stocks opened higher amid the U.S strong data. Investors focused on key companies (IBM and American Express) earnings reports which will report after the bell. However, traders preferred wait and see mode ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday.

Current situation

The index traded in a tight range on Thursday. The price was sandwiched between 5060 and 5040 during the day. The benchmark started the day at the open limit of the band and moved down to its lower limit during the course of the European trades. The price stayed above the moving averages in the 1 hour chat. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50-EMA was flat while the 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

Trading recommendations

The market seems fairly balanced. The index feels comfortably in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction. Meanwhile we prefer to stay out of trades until we get a clear picture.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:25 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The dollar reversed some of its losses after hawkish J.Yellen's remarks. The euro ignored Germany PPI which came in a line with expectations. Markets focused on Trump's inauguration on Friday expecting to hear fresh guidelines from a new President. Traders wait for Draghi's speech and Germany Manufacturing PMI on Monday.

Current situation

Despite technical readings the pair held to its recent bullish tone on Friday. The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term ascending channel. The price reached its upper boundary overnight and bounced off it at the beginning of the European trades. The spot pushed away from 1.0700 and reached 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart during the European hours. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0650 may trigger another leg lower. A daily close below 1.0600 handle would open 1.0550. However, a lower limit of an upward channel is a solid obstacle which may reject the pair once again. If the level holds the EUR/USD pair will refresh to the current highs at 1.0720.

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Pound

General overview

The pound lost its impetus amid worse than expected Retail Sales. Despite the negative data the sterling maintained its upbeat tone on Friday`.

Current situation

The Asian recovery stalled a few pips below 1.2400. After posting a daily high at 1.2374 the spot turned around and headed towards 1.2300. Sellers broke the level in the mid-European session and led the pair towards 1.2250. However, a revived buying interest stopped sellers' advance and returned the cable to 1.2300 ahead of the NY opening. The spot failed to retake the 200-EMA in the Asian session and bounced off the moving afterwards. GBP/USD pair headed towards neutral 100-EMA in the European session. The moving averages were mixed: the 100-EMA was neutral, the 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.2300 may suggests further weakness of the GBPUSD pair. The price might extend the downtrend towards the 1.2200.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar weakened after J.Yellen's hawkish speech. However, the greenback reverted some losses on Friday on expectations of D.Trump's speech after his inauguration.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Friday. The US dollar was struggling with the 115.00 hurdle during the Asian session. Bulls broke the level ahead of the European session opening. However, the spot lost its upward impetus soon and returned to 115.00. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMA in the Asian session. The spot was between the 100 and the 50 EMAs during the European hours. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI stayed within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish, for a rise towards 116.00 resistance area. After the hurdle break a further extension towards 117.00 could be observed further. If the level 115.00 fails to support bulls the USD/JPY pair may lost its ground again returning to a downside.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The Canadian regulator disappointed investors with Retail Sales and Consumer Price index reports. Both indices came in worse than expected. However this data had little effect on the CAD which was under pressure amid broad base the US dollar strength.

Current situation

The pair held a bullish tone on Friday. Strong bullish sentiment was driving the pair towards 1.3330 in the first part of the day. Buyers managed to break the level in the mid-European session and continued moving upwards afterwards. The pair almost reached 1.3400 when the US dollar lost its impetus and retreated to 1.3330 in the NY session. The price broke all moving averages upwards and stayed above them during the day. The 50-EMA pointed higher, the 100-EMA headed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remained intact. A close above 1.3330 may trigger gains towards 1.3400. USD/CAD may extend its rally after a solid close above 1.3400. Inability to break above 1.3400 may bring some negative sentiment to markets. If sellers seize control they will push the price to 1.3190.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Risk aversion in the first part of the week helped the metal to strengthen. However, the risk-on mood returned on Friday and the US dollar managed to reverse a minor part of its losses.

Current situation

The Asian recovery lost its momentum at 1210 dollars per ounce. The level rejected the XAU/USD pair sending it towards 1200 during the European early hours. The precious metal declined and tested the 1200 handle in the mid-European session. Sellers failed to reclaim the level and retreated. The precious metal remained around the level till the end of the trades. The 1 hour chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards during the Asian trades and tested the 200-EMA ahead of the NY session opening. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards in the same chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and headed downwards.

Trading recommendations

A clear break below the 1200 support will indicate that the upward movement had completed. The following downward movement could bring price back to 1190 area, en route to 1180 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

The upbeat Q4 GDP in China supported the demand for oil on Friday. Moreover, Brent grew amid renewed hopes of tighter oil market in 2017. However, oil growth may be limited amid concerns regarding EIA crude inventory report. An inventory increase may weigh on the price and cut its recent gains.

Current situation

Brent extended its consolidative pattern in the Asian session on Friday. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the European session opening. The benchmark edged higher and tested the level 54.50 dollars per barrel during European morning trade. Oil prices extended their gains afterwards and broke the mentioned level in the mid-European session. Buyers did not stop and pushed the price higher testing 55.50 in the NY session. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the European session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 100-EMA headed lower in the mentioned timeframe chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI left the oversold readings and headed north.

Trading recommendations

The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. We will place buy orders if the benchmark does a breakout at the resistance level of 55.50. The next potential buyers’ target is 56.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks edged higher on Friday awaiting for D.Trump’s inauguration. Financial stocks moved higher while mining ones added to losses on Friday.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open on Friday. Traders broke 11600 right after the gap and pushed the benchmark higher afterwards. The benchmark stayed above the moving averages which kept heading higher in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevailed on Friday. After close above the 11600 level the 11700 hurdle could become an attractive price for investors.

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S&P500

General overview

The US stocks traded higher at the US session opening awaiting for Donald Trump's message in his inaugural speech.

Current situation

The index opened green on Friday. Traders pushed the benchmark higher heading towards the mark 2270. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 100-EMA upwards and tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark stayed above the 200 and the 100-EMAs during day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator entered the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bullish for now. The short term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 2260 level.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The calendar remained thin and uneventful on Monday. The pair was influenced by broad base dollar retracement. Donald Trump's inaugural speech disappointed investors with absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures. The market will be focused on PMI Composite and Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany on Tuesday.

Current situation

The common European currency maintained its bid tone for the 3rd consecutive session on Monday. The euro reached the level 1.0750 in the early trades which stopped its further advance. After touching the level the pair rolled back maintaining its bullish stance during the European hours. The spot extended its losses ahead of NY session opening. The 1 hour chart showed that the price continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 1.0750 may suggest further growth of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0800. In case of a bounce from 1.0750, the currency pair would fall as low as 1.0650.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened amid the US dollar weakness. The dollar softened after D.Trump’s inauguration speech which lacked any hints of his future program.

Current situation

The pound traded in the green zone on Monday extending its Friday's gains. The cable left the seven-week descending channel on Friday. The spot broke the level 1.2400 in the early Asian trades and advanced north during the European trades on Monday. The upward trajectory stopped a few pips below 1.2500 where a fresh bout of selling interest weighed on the spot. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained in the overvalued readings and headed higher.

Trading recommendations

We expect GBPUSD pair to trade bullish for now. Once the GBP/USD pair breaks above 1.2500, we think that the 1.2550 level will be next.

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Yen

General overview

The US dollar edged lower vs. the yen on Monday amid growing concerns that Trump’s first steps as the US President may bring instability in the Asian region causing «economical wars» with leading Asian economics.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair stayed in the red zone on Monday. The spot found a solid support around 113.00 in the Asian session and recovered some ground during the European hours. After testing the 113.00 handle the price reversed its direction and grew up to 114.00 where it slowed down its recovery. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NA session opening sending the pair to 113.00. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the Asian session in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages on Monday. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within oversold readings close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

Technical studies are in favour of the negative outcome. The USD/JPY pair risks falling back to 113.00 which is expected to limit its losses.

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AUD/USD

General overview

Lack of clarity over Donald Trump's plans for economic stimulus weakened the US dollar. Moreover, the upbeat sentiment around commodities, especially Copper, boosted demand for AUD on Monday.

Current situation


The AUD/USD pair stayed in the near-term upward channel trading around its recent highs on Monday. The spot extended its buying momentum in the early trades. The Aussie broke the level 0.7550 in the Asian session and posted the daily high at 0.7575. The spot rolled back afterwards and returned to 0.7500 region. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages were all pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors an upward extension. The 0.7600 hurdle seems the first probable bullish target. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7650 could be observed further.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Traders have not changed their opinion preserving upbeat tone on Monday. The demand for the metal grew amid uncertainty around Trump's proposed fiscal policy measures. A weak sentiment surrounding equity markets lent some support to the precious metal as well.

Current situation

Gold turned bearish on Monday. The metal eased off from its daily high as traders decided to book some profits after the recent rally. The XAU/USD pair pushed away from 1220 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and reached 1210 in the mid-European one. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations


The precious metal is likely to extend its bearishness. The price eyes strong support at 1200 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 1190 dollars per ounce. To revive its buying momentum the metal needs to retake 1220.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on Monday amid a strong recovery in U.S. oil drilling activity. The prospects of rising U.S. production overwhelmed the news that OPEC members began lowering their oil output.

Current situation

The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. After an Asian flat the price moved lower during the European yearly hours. The benchmark pushed away from 55.50 and headed towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. Brent tested 50 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs stayed neutral during the day. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

If a downward pressure persists there is a chance of breaking 54.50 dollars per barrel. A cut here will open the road towards 53.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded lower on Monday after Trump’s inaugural speech. The financial sector was down together with energy stocks. Shares of Essentra lost 5% which contributed to the stocks decline as well.

Current situation

Bears seized the ball on Monday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its weakness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price downwards and tested the level 11500 post-European session open. The price bounced off the level after touching it and erased some of its recent losses. The DAX index broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 EMA in the 4 hours chart during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs turned neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bullishness. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI moved to the downside.

Trading recommendations

If the price overcomes 11500 we could see DAX extending its declines down to 11400. A further extension to 11300 is not ruled out.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street traded lower in the premarket after Donald Trump’s inaugural speech. The disappointment from the US President Donald Trump's speech was behind the market's decline. Investors turned to earnings which are scheduled for this week.

Current situation

The index turned lower on Friday and continued losing its value on Monday. Sellers returned the price below 5060 and pushed the benchmark lower. The downward momentum lost its legs when the price reached 5040. The index broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading higher. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI headed downwards confirming sellers’ strength.

Trading recommendations

In order to recover some strength, NASDAQ needs to rise back and hold above 5040. In this scenario the benchmark has a chance of maintaining its bid tone. Conversely, a break below 5020 will put on hold bulls’ plans. A firm break below the handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 5000.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.01.2017

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany posted better-than-expected results. Services PMI showed on the contrary negative figures. The market will be focused on Business Climate in Germany on Wednesday.

Current situation

Sentiment remained bullish towards the euro on Tuesday. The EUR/USD traded in an ascending channel close to its upper limit. Euro bulls met a barrier at 1.0750 and failed to advance further. After posting a daily high at 1.0770 in the Asian session bulls stepped back and returned the pair to the 1.0750 region. The spot remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200 EMA stayed neutral. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

A close above 1.0750 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance towards 1.0800. Inability to move beyond the level may cause a pull back. The EUR/USD pair may correct lower to 1.0670 and 1.0650.

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Pound

General overview

Traders booked some profits ahead of the UK Supreme Court's decision on Brexit. The Supreme Court had to decide whether Parliament approval is required to launch Article 50.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place on Tuesday. Buyers failed to retake 1.2500 and had to retreat giving the floor to sellers. A fresh buying interest around the US currency helped the US dollar to recover from the recent lows. Sellers pushed the price lower in the Asian session but failed to advance below the mark 1.2460 before the European session. The pair continued its slide towards 1.2450 ahead of the NY session opening. The moving averages were mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA remained bearish while the 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards. Moreover, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator remained within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

Sustained break above the 1.2500 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1.2540, en rout to 1.2600. To ease the current upward pressure the spot needs to close below 1.2400. We will buy before this level reaching.

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Yen


General overview

The yen received a light support from the upbeat Manufacturing PMI. Moreover, the uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda kept on weighing on the US dollar.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate on Tuesday. However, bears seem to have taken a breath after meeting the solid support around multi-week lows at 112.50. The price bounced from the 112.50 support zone in the Asian session and developed a goodish recovery building on to its momentum back above 113.00 handle afterwards. After breaking the level the USD/JPY pair extended its growth in the European session. The US dollar had reversed half of Monday's sharp drop by the NY session opening. According the 4 hours chart the pair remained below its moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs advanced south while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The technical indicators bounced from oversold levels staying within negative readings. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ growing strength. RSI bounced off the oversold area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

If bears retain control the spot will return below 113.00. This scenario risks the advance towards 112.00. To put on hold bears’ plans buyers need a clear break above 114.00.

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NZD/USD

Current situation

The bullish momentum faded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price gave up it recent gains and rolled back below 0.7250 in the late Asian session. Sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 0.7200 during the European hours. The selling interest lost its legs after touching the handle which rejected the price upwards. The pair remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

The 0.7250 hurdle seems the next probable bullish target. After breaking this level 0.7300 will come back to the radar. A return below 0.7150 risks a decline back towards the support at 0.7100.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Uncertainties around Trump's Presidency continued weighing on gold prices limiting a downslide on Tuesday.

Current situation

Despite the ongoing easing the precious metal remained in green on Tuesday. The resistance 1220 dollars per ounce appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After testing the level the metal bounced back in the Asian session and returned to 1210 in the European one. Sellers lost their steam around the handle waiting for new market movers. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept their advance north while the 200-EMA just turned upwards. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved to a downside.

Trading recommendations

If the XAU/USD pair stays above 1210 dollars per ounce the gold spot may escalate up to 1220 first, en route to 1230.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday following output cuts announced by the OPEC on Monday. All eyes are on API inventory report.

Current situation

Oil prices rebounded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The buying sentiment was boosted by a weaker US dollar. However, the Asian recovery stalled above 55.50 dollars per barrel when the benchmark found fresh offers. Brent sharply dropped and broke the level 55.50 erasing all its recent gains. The benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European session. All moving averages were neutral. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Brent seems to be unable to climb over 55.50. Sellers returned the price to the level on any up-move higher. A close below the hurdle will trigger losses towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. To revive bullishness oil prices need to retake the 55.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks moved lower on Tuesday on UK Supreme Court decision regarding Brexit. The Prime Minister will require parliamentary approval to launch Brexit now. Energy stocks traded higher, financial stocks registered gains as well.

Current situation

The index remained under pressure on Tuesday. DAX stayed below 11600 getting under selling pressure on any up-move towards the hurdle. The benchmark failed to retake the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The DAX index stayed between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations


We await a break below 11500 to trigger a new leg lower.

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S&P500

Current situation

The index traded in the negative area on Tuesday. The benchmark stayed around the level 2260 trying to break it lower. S&P500 was struggling with the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart during the day. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA moved upwards. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

If a selling interest persists a move below 2260 would revive bearishness towards 2240.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:26 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2017

Euro

General overview

The European common currency got under selling pressure in the morning trades on Wednesday amid negative Business Climate release in Germany. A demand for the euro emerged in the European session helping the major to reverse its losses climbing to fresh highs.

Current situation

Bears tried to take control over the market on Wednesday. After a night consolidation sellers made an attempt to move the price lower at the beginning of the European session. The price headed towards 1.0700 first, however, the selling interest faded soon. The pair found fresh bids above 1.0700 and extended its corrective rally on risk-on trades. The common currency rallied and reversed all Tuesday’s losses by the noon. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI stayed within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A bullish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will place buy orders if the EURAUD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.0750. The pair might extend its gains towards 1.0800 afterwards. Meanwhile, inability to climb above 1.07500 risks a decline back to 1.0700.

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Pound

General overview

The UK Industrial Trends Survey - Orders grew for January providing support for the cable. Investors kept weighing up M.Carney's remarks. The immediate focus now remains on the UK GDP for 4Q. Traders expect a light decline in the GDP.

Current situation

The GBP/USD pair kept its rangebound stance unchanged the first part of Wednesday. The spot traded in a tight range flirting with 1.2500 during the day. A fresh buying impetus boosted the GBP/USD pair to 1.2600 after London's opening. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

Strategically, we preserve bearish outlook and see risks of a move down towards 1.2400 over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. However, the spot needs to break the 1.2600 level first to maintain its bullishness.

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Yen

General overview

Protectionist rhetoric from the White House kept weighing on the dollar. Exports and Merchandise Trade Balance in Japan showed upbeat data supporting the national currency.

Current situation

USD/JPY remained in bearish trend. Tuesday’s recovery stalled when the price met a barrier at 114.00. Buyers failed to retake the level which rejected the USD/JPY pair downwards. The spot rolled back and stopped a few pips below the hurdle. The pair was confined to a well limited range below 114.00 during the European hours and continued its slide ahead of the NY session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA in the early trades. The US dollar failed to reclaim the 50-EMA and bounced off it. The benchmark remained below its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA stayed flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the coming sessions. Sellers may drive the pair to 113.00 first, en route to 112.50.

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USD/CAD

General overview

Trump’s plans to revive Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines weighed on the Canadian dollar. However, the Loonie recovered some ground later the day in the light of weaker oil prices.

Current situation

The US dollar remained rather unchanged against its Canadian peer. After a sharp sell-off sellers took a breath consolidating their gains. The price hovered above 1.3120 in the morning after being rejected in the early Asian trades. A fresh buying interest emerged in the mid-European session pushing the US dollar upwards. An attempt to raise rates failed and a downward pressure returned the spot to 1.3120 in the mid-European session. The CAD broke 100 and 50-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair stayed below the moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bearish, for a fall towards 1.3050 support area. However, the USD/CAD is oversold and we do not rule out a minor correction towards 1.32.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda and lack of US data softened the US dollar. Gold took an advantage of weaker dollar and strengthened. Markets now eagerly await the US Housing Price Index report.

Current situation

Gold prices turned negative after the opening. The XAU/USD pair came under some profit-taking pressure on Wednesday. Bears seized control and pushed the price downwards. The metal pushed away from the 1210 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and headed downwards. European traders continued dragging gold futures downwards and reached 1200 in the mid-European session. However, the level limited sellers’ advance rejecting the gold spot. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA pointed higher, while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral territory and entered oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The uptrend is not over yet. The buying interest remains while 1195 pivot holds. We expect gold prices to resume their growth. A break above 1210 will suggest its further strengthening towards 1220 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices edged lower ahead of the EIA crude stockpiles report.

Current situation

Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears on Wednesday. Brent failed to sustain a minor-recovery above 55.50 hurdle and extended losses below the last. The price remained in a tight range during the Asian session. Traders made an attempt to lower the price in the early European session but succeeded in the second one. The price broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages remained flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the benchmark will go to 54.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 53.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded in green on Wednesday. The latest earnings reports supported stocks. The growth was boosted by Logitech and Banco Santander upbeat figures.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the daily open. The benchmark maintained its bid tone afterwards. Buyers pushed the price through 11700 in the early European trades. DAX extended its rally in the late European hours approaching to 11800. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and 50 EMAs upwards. The benchmark moved away from the moving averages which kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay bullish for now. If the benchmark stays above 11700 DAX will aim at 11800.

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NASDAQ


General overview

Wall Street futures hit record highs on Wednesday. The post-election rally seems to have returned boosted by President Trump's push for pro-growth policies.

Current situation

The index had a positive day on Wednesday. A brief consolidation phase was over by the European trades opening. European traders pushed the price higher which rallied towards 5120. The upward impetus faded about the mark ahead of the NY session opening. NASDAQ continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs accelerated their advance north in the same chart. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 5100 opened the way to the 5140 hurdle.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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