"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the US dollar was able to recoup some lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.45. By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the longs profit taking \ after the US jobless claims positive report. After the U report the Germany and the US negative bond yields showed a reversal which also points to the bearish sentiment prevalence for the euro. The Non-Farm showed 228K as a result the dollar strengthened.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations increase which contributed to demand for the British pound.

The pair USD / JPY had strengthened. The US stock market sales restrained bulls from the large number of long positions opening. The pair dynamics was affected by the Non-Farm report.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US May labor market report was last week main even that shall set this week movement direction. The non-farm payrolls came out better than the forecasted medians. The leading indicators point out to the Non-Farm at 228K.

The euro strong growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.1375. The short-term level testing was followed by the active price rebound downwards on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the return below the cloud, the first target might be the level of 1.0925. Otherwise the growth will be continued to 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The monetary policy committee kept the asset purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The fall in consumer prices by 0.1% on an annualized ratio revived fears among investors about the Europe's third largest economy deflation. In these circumstances, we do not count on the monetary policy change and the interest rates raising before 2016.

The whole week the British pound was correcting against the US dollar towards the upward channel. The resistance level of 1.5350 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is directed downwards.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued. The price will fall towards 1.5100 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US Treasury short-term and long-term securities declined after the jobless claims positive release which with the US stock market reduction points out to the investors' expectations that the Fed may raise the interest rates this year. After the Non-farms positive report the pair has grown.

The Japanese yen upward trend is consolidating towards the levels’ side channels of 123.65 - 124.85. Despite the continuous consolidation, the bullish trend is still in force.

The price is finding the first support at 125.50, the next one is at 124.30. The price is finding the resistance at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are growing. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The euro is in no hurry to leave the taken highs, preferring to trade above the ninth figure. Mixed US statistics, the European leaders’ willingness to work intensively with Greece and a modest increase in activity within the ECB QE keep the euro afloat, preventing the "bears" completely clean up the initiative in their hands.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are changing their course to upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued and the price will reach 0.9540 soon.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday main event was the May US labor market report. All traders were looking forward to this release as it had to give an answer whether the US economy stood on the growth path after the first quarter recession or not and whether the Fed is going to raise the federal rates this year. It is worth noting that the data met the traders’ expectations who bet on the US dollar growth. The Non-Farm index came out at the level of 280 thousand, the average earnings increased by 0.3%. The US Treasury two-bond yields immediately increased to the level of 0.752%, having set a new maximum for the last four years. Against this background, the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased. However these pairs fell by the end of the day.

The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country. Nevertheless the pair USD/JPY has decreased.

Germany published the industrial production report. It was expected that it might please the traders with the positive data amid the industrial orders growth. As a result the release showed a growth 0.9%m/m and 1.4% y/y.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro increased at the trades on Monday. Germany published the industrial production report. This index increased in April by 0.9% on the month basis after the revised decline by 0.4% in March. The increase was larger in April than it was forecasted by 0.5% and the highest increase in 2015.

We received the May US labor market report and it's time to sum up the outcomes. The private sector employment reached the level of 280 thousand that confirms the Fed forecast for the US economic recovery in the second quarter.

The price reduction from the resistance level of 1.1260 was followed by the support level of 1.1150 short-term breakthrough. However, buyers were able to buy out the price and return it above the mark of 1.1150. The resistance level of 1.1260 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US labor market positive report for May points out both to the economic growth as a whole and to the inflation increase in particular. Inflation expectations growth will contribute to the fact that investors will lay in their forecasts the monetary policy tightening by the Fed part which will support demand for the US dollar.

The pound downward trend has stopped at the round support level of 1.5200 for the second time. We noted a consolidation below the resistance level of 1.5300. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the April payment balance report. The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country which made it possible to rely on the positive data output. The data came out at the level of -146.4B. the forecast median was +153B.

The bullish trend is still quite strong and investors will build up long positions on dips. Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the maximum of 124.30. The pair fixated above and tested the level of 125.50. the pair rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 125.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is correcting. The dollar ended the day at the level of 95.29. The April trade balance and industrial production positive German statistics helped the pair to grow.

There was a negative trend in the securities market - the British bonds yield are reduced against the German ones and the USA Treasuries. In the light of this, the pound/dollar lost some positions. However, in late trade, the GBP/USD has managed to grow.

The January - March Japanese GDP was revised to the positive side and led to the dollar/yen decrease. The national currency devaluation affects positively the Japanese economy. These numbers show the highest positive growth since February.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro / dollar has been showing a high volatility since the summer beginning which may be related to the liquidity drop in the summer months. We have seen quite contradictory movements in major currency pairs in the last 2 weeks. The weak UK trade balance may support the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in turn will allow the pair EUR/USD to test the level of 1.1450.

The Friday's dollar growth was offset by the strong euro growth. Buyers not only managed to get out of the descending channel, but also to break through two resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1450, 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expected the trade balance release would not be able to please the traders with strong data. The release showed -1.202B.

The pound revaluation against the euro together with the manufacturing sector weakness point to that the data will not be very delightful. The UK government bond yields declined to their counterparts from the US and Germany that might also put pressure on the "cable".

We did not get the downward trend continuation yesterday. The price corrected upwards to 1.5390 on the low volumes. The level of 1.5550 plays the role of the key resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5390 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5460, 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment changed to bearish, despite the Japan and the United States important macroeconomic statistics lack. There was the bond yields negative differential expansion in Japan and the US markets which is a positive factor for the dollar. At the same time the Japanese currency devaluation has a positive effect on the economy of Japan - the current account balance shows a high positive gain since February. However it did not allow the pair to continue the growth.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123/50 breakthrough down the way to the support 12240 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend yesterday still the day the EUR/USD finished with an increase. The pair GBP/USD had decreased in spite of the UK April positive trade balance. However the pair increased by the end of the day. The pair USD/JPY had grown upwards amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales which contributed to the carry trade transactions closing and the demand for the Japanese yen. Then the pair sharply fell.

The US dollar keeps strengthening – the Treasury two-years bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the Fed interest rates may show a growth above the level of 0.75%. The current profitability level is 0.71% and therefore it is quite difficult to count on the dollar bullish sentiment. The May US retail sales positive report can change the situation, we expect the report today.

The US Federal Reserve meeting will be held a week later there on June 16-17. However, some analytics believe that even at this meeting the US central bank will dare to start its monetary policy tightening. Still markets are hoping that the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen will give a hint at the end of the press conference when to wait for this event.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The May US retail sales report will be published today that may affect the pair's dynamics. The German 10-year bond yields rose up relative to their UK and US counterparts which is a positive factor for the euro.

At the same time the Greece and the German bond yields have been increasing for three consecutive trading days that point out to the investors' negative expectations. However, the oil market positive dynamics may contribute to the euro demand.

The level of 1.1260 testing was short-term. Buyers again took an initiative and corrected the price upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK national statistics office published the April manufacturing sector production report. The production fell by 0.4% m/m and grew by 0.2% y/y. The PMI manufacturing sector and the Industrialists Confederation industrial orders balance negative reports pointed out to the weak data output. And late in the evening the Bank of England governor Mr. Carney gave his speech.

There was the level of 1.5460 breakthrough. The price output from the channel was on the reduced volume, but it signals towards the bearish trend reversal. The resistance level of 1.5550 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5460 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the machinery and equipment orders release. The machinery and equipment orders rose up to + 3.0% y/y in April and rose up to + 3.8% m/m. It is industrial production leading indicator and it is closely watched by traders. However, most of the positive data had a negative impact on the yen and a positive effect on the Japanese stock market.

We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields increase on the bond market which is also a bullish factor for the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 122.40 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 121.60, further then towards 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German 10-years bond yields rapid growth. At the moment the German 10-year bond yields reached the mark of 1.02%. However, the pair fell by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had increased as well amid the April UK industrial production positive release and high oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair slightly fell at the end of the day.

The chief newsmaker has rightly become the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda who noted in his speech that the Japanese yen is oversold. Against this background, the pair USD/JPY had decreased. By the end of the day the pair showed a growth.

In May the US domestic market car sales increased by more than 1 million units. The Conference Board indicator of consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.1 p at the end of May in comparison with the previous month which also points to the strong data output. The initial jobless claims release came out at the level of 279 000 against forecasted 275 000.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the US statistics. The May retail sales report will determine the US consumer activity on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 17 of June. Leading indicators point out to the positive data output. The May retail sales report showed a growth by 1.2%.

There was a false resistance level of 1.1260 breakthrough that is a good signal towards the downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1450, 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was in demand amid the "black gold" price growth. The Brent crude oil has consolidated above the mark of $ 66 barrel amid the US inventories decline which is a negative factor for the US dollar. It should also be noted that the British pound is supported by the pair EUR / GBP quotations decrease.

The UK 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a bearish factor for the pair.

Thanks to the two resistance levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460 breakthrough buyers have strengthened their position in this market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movment. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated amid the traders' escape from the US dollar and amid the Mr. Kuroda statements, concerning the oversold Japanese yen. Later, however, there was a demand for the dollar. The positive retail sales may contribute to the US two-years bond yields above 4-year maximum of 0.752% which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

After a decline more than 200 points the price recovered its position.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased amid the positive US statistics. Earlier the Swiss franc had strengthened its position. The dollar came under pressure after the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's comments. His words provoked the US dollar sales against the major currencies. Also, the frank grew up as a safe haven currency due to Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German 10-years bond yields rapid growth. At the moment the German 10-year bond yields reached the mark of 1.02%. However, the pair fell by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had increased as well amid the April UK industrial production positive release and high oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair slightly fell at the end of the day.

The chief newsmaker has rightly become the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda who noted in his speech that the Japanese yen is oversold. Against this background, the pair USD/JPY had decreased. By the end of the day the pair showed a growth.

In May the US domestic market car sales increased by more than 1 million units. The Conference Board indicator of consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.1 p at the end of May in comparison with the previous month which also points to the strong data output. The initial jobless claims release came out at the level of 279 000 against forecasted 275 000.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the US statistics. The May retail sales report will determine the US consumer activity on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 17 of June. Leading indicators point out to the positive data output. The May retail sales report showed a growth by 1.2%.

There was a false resistance level of 1.1260 breakthrough that is a good signal towards the downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1450, 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was in demand amid the "black gold" price growth. The Brent crude oil has consolidated above the mark of $ 66 barrel amid the US inventories decline which is a negative factor for the US dollar. It should also be noted that the British pound is supported by the pair EUR / GBP quotations decrease.

The UK 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a bearish factor for the pair.

Thanks to the two resistance levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460 breakthrough buyers have strengthened their position in this market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movment. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated amid the traders' escape from the US dollar and amid the Mr. Kuroda statements, concerning the oversold Japanese yen. Later, however, there was a demand for the dollar. The positive retail sales may contribute to the US two-years bond yields above 4-year maximum of 0.752% which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

After a decline more than 200 points the price recovered its position.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased amid the positive US statistics. Earlier the Swiss franc had strengthened its position. The dollar came under pressure after the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's comments. His words provoked the US dollar sales against the major currencies. Also, the frank grew up as a safe haven currency due to Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in the flat before Draghi's speech. Traders ignored the US positive macroeconomic statistics, still the "Greek factor" did not allow bulls to win during the day. However by the end of the trades the pair increased. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the EUR/GBP quotations decrease which supported the British pound. During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the flat as well amid the Japan and the US stock market sales.

Traders continue to believe that the next week the Federal Reserve may prepare the market to the interest rates growth in the short term. The Fed was in the spotlight after the US data that over the last few days have shown the economic growth signs which might serve as a basis to start the key rate raising.

The US producer price index rose up by 0.5% m/m in May, exceeding the growth forecasts by+ 0.4%. In April the index declined by 0.4%. The annualized rate fell by 1.1% in May against the decline by 0.8% in April. The basic price index rose up by 0.6% y/y that is below the growth forecast by 0.7%. Meanwhile, the core prices rose up by 0.1% m/m. The main index witnessed the maximum growth since 2012 while the benchmark index remains under pressure.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The United States has published the May industrial production statistics. The May manufacturing sector ISM indicator has increased by 1.3 p that allowed to count on the positive data output. In addition, there was the Greece and Germany significant bond yields which again may put pressure on the euro. It should also be noted that most of the investors will take a wait in anticipation of the Fed meeting.

The market was opened with a price gap. The gap was closed after the resistance level of 1.1260 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and from a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The debt market dynamics shows the British pound strong overvaluation. The UK bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts which is a bearish factor for the pair. The Germany and the UK bond yields points out to the EUR/GBP corrective movement development which may also put pressure on the GBP/USD.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar, having broken through on its way the resistance level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough will provide a good signal for the upward trend continuation in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan stock markets sales put pressure on the pair USD/JPY as investors closed their carry trade transactions and in this regard there is demand for the Japanese yen. The stock market decline will
contribute to the US Treasury bond yields which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing below the first target, the level 121.60 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the risk growth from the Greece part and the US industrial production negative statistics. By the end of the trades the pair fell.

There was a demand for a pound after the US weak industrial production release publication and the trading day the GBP/USD ended with the quotations growth.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the narrow flat. On the one hand, bears shorted amid the world stock markets sales. On the other hand, bulls built up long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation.

Greece continues to draw the markets' attention. The new week started with another negotiations failure with the Greece international creditors that increases concerns about the country possible exit from the EU. The Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis rejected the possibility of the Greek exit from the EU: the Euro group finance ministers shall meet on Thursday and analysts say it will be the last chance for Greece which will have to pay 1.6 billion euro ($ 1.80 billion) to IMF on 30 June. The current financial aid program also ends this day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics shows the lack of the euro demand. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields significant increase amid the lack of compromise between Athens and creditors increases the risks for the euro. On the other hand, the "black gold" decrease has a positive impact on the US dollar. These two factors are negative for the European currency. However, the US dollar will not be always in demand.

The pair euro/dollar has been correcting for the third consecutive week. Two previous levels of 1.1260 breakthrough were followed by the short-term prices rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and from a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK consumer price index rose up again by 0.2% in May on the month basis as the previous month. The value is in line with expectations. The labor market indicators point out to the consumer prices increase there was the unemployment decrease and average earnings increase in the beginning of spring. The Bank of England indicated that inflation would be negative in the short term.

From the technical point of view, the upward trend remains stable due to the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the flat within the range of 122.85 -123.80. On the one hand, the world leading stock markets sales put pressure on the pair USD/JPY as investors close their carry trade orders as a result there was a
demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However, in general, all traders are now hiding in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results announcement.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. After fixing below the first target, the level of 121.60 will become the next one.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the risks increase, concerning the "Greek problem" resolution. Athens is still not in a hurry to negotiate with the creditors which may put pressure on the euro. The Germany and the Greece negative bond yields have been decreasing for three trading days which points out to the risk increase. The traders’ attention was focused on the Fed economic forecast as well as on the FOMC chairman press conference. The Fed did not surprise the market and left the saved rate at 0.25%. By the end of the trades the pair increased.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the EUR/GBP decrease because of the "Greek factor", the Fed’s decision and the May UK inflation positive data. Yesterday the UK bond yields declined relative to the US and Germany counterparts which is a bearish factor for the pound.

The pair USD/JPY has been in the narrow flat for the third trading day- investors took a wait –and- see position in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results announcement. The Fed did not change the rate. Against this background, the trades ended with the price decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics and the US Federal Reserve two-day meeting results announcement will determine the euro/dollar trend. The Germany 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In this context, we may expect the low euro demand. Analysts had expected the Fed officials positive comments. The Fed did not change its monetary politic.

The resistance level of 1.1260 testing at the yesterday's trading session was followed by its breackthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders' attention is focused on the UK statistics. The United Kingdom is on the verge of deflation and therefore the average wage release will attract the traders' attention as salaries have a direct impact on the CPI. In its quarterly economic forecast the Bank of England pointed out to the low productivity which will hold back economic growth. In this context, we expected the average earnings data output less than forecasted medians. The data came out at the level of 2.7% (forecast 2.1%).

According to the technical analysis, buyers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 1.5950 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The last three trading days the pair has been in the narrow range of 123.30 -123.60. Given the fact that the Japanese yen showed less corrective gains than all of the major currencies against the dollar we conclude that there are strong USD buyers in this pair who keep the market and gain positions towards the upward trend. However the pair fell amid the Fed’s report publication.

The price has consolidated below the strong resistance level of 123.50 amid the low volumes. Then the pair broke though this level and tested the level of 124.30. The price rebounded downwards from this level and closed the trades below the level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 122.40, 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main event of the day was the US Federal two-day meeting results announcement. Most the world leading investment banks' economists expect the Federal Reserve positive forecasts still the FOMC representatives sent the dollar to the knockout. The key forecasts for GDP, unemployment and interest rates have been revised to the negative directions which together with uncertainty in relation to the federal funds rate first increase have had significant pressure on the US dollar.

In the light of this the pair EUR/USD has increased, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well, the pair USD/JPY has fallen.

There was the Euro group meeting where they discussed "the Greek debt" solutions. The Greece and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been increasing for four trading days in a row that pointed out to the low probability of a compromise. Even if the parties were able to reach a consensus - the negotiations would be very long.

The USA published a weekly initial jobless claims report. There was 267 thousand claims last week, While analysts had expected 276 thousand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Fed deprived the dollar bulls all the trumps. They level the unemployment and GDP evaluation for the period 2015-2017 years which was negatively perceived by traders. The only thing that was left unchanged was the inflation forecast, but it is not clearly enough yet. The main event of the day was the US inflation data release. The data showed 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. And we cannot ignore the situation around Greece.

Buyers have reached the strong resistance level of 1.1450 the third time for three weeks. They have reached the level amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the May UK retail sales data. We mark the average earnings growth acceleration at the end of March and April which indicates the consumer spending increase. In this context, we expect the data output bit better than the forecasted medians. The data shed a growth by 0.2% m/m и 4.6% y/y

In view of the US Federal Reserve negative economic forecasts - the pair may reach the psychological level of 1.5950 in the short term.

At the session the British pound session significantly strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the two strong resistance levels: 1.5670, 1.5775. The levels breakthrough was amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5950, 1.6080.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the Fed statistics publication the Japanese yen has strengthened less against the dollar among the majors. In the short term we may expect the quotations decrease as the US Federal Reserve chairman J. Yellen pointed out that they have to see "more convincing evidence" of sustained moderate economic growth to start the interest rates raising.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40, 121.60 and 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown rapidly against the dollar but then it fell again. The franc growth catalyst was the FOMC meeting results and the regulator head comments.

So, the Fed kept the base rate level forecast at the end of the year while lowering it for the next year. Until the end of 2015 they expect the interest rates increase to 0.625% which implies the twice increase by 25 bp. In the short term the rate is expected to reach 1.625% which is below the March forecast of 1.875%. In accordance with the FOMC statements the interest rate remains within the range of 0.25% to 0.50%.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.