"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:00 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid a dollar weakness and risk-off sentiment in the market. Traders took wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

Current situation

Technically, the pair remained towards the downside on Monday. The price bounced from 1.0525 and rallied towards 1.0600. Buyers broke the level and extended their recovery towards 1.0650. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 100-EMA. Meanwhile, the moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator entered the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

If a bearish tone prevails we would be selling the pair when the price drops below 1.0600. Sellers may lead prices towards 1.0500. Meanwhile, the euro may continue with its recovery if its stays above 1.0600.

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Pound

General overview

The dollar weakened across the board. Still, the greenback stays at recent highs amid the 100% confidence that the FED will hike the rates.

Current situation

The pound remained weak against the US dollar, but found sufficient support around 1.2600 handle which limited its downside volatility. We believe some buying interest exists around 1.2550 region. Buyers made an attempt to recover and broke the level 1.26 but failed to extend their gains and hovered above the broken level till the NY opening. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price remained between the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the same chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI headed upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.2600, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The sellers’ potential targets are 1.2500 and 1.2400.

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Yen

General overview

The risk-on sentiment amid OPEC oil output deal and the firm expectations of the Fed rate-hike action weighed on the safe-heaven yen on Monday. Even the upbeat Machinery Order in Japan did little to support the national currency.

Current situation

The USD/JPY maintained its bid tone on Monday. The price bounced from 116.00 and returned to the 115.00 handle region. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages which kept heading higher. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the resistance level 116.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 117.00 level.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD strengthened after Bill English was sworn in as New-Zealand's new Prime Minister. The new assignment eased the political fears in the country. Moreover oil output OPEC deal boosted the investors' sentiment and helped the New Zealand dollar to recover.

Current situation

After posting a session low at 0.7115 the New Zealand dollar grew reversing its early losses. Traders broke the level 0.7150 in early trades and headed towards 0.72 which tested in the NA session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50 EMA and broke 200 EMA upwards. The 200 and 50 EMAs were neutral while the 100 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD traded to the upside. RSI moved towards overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price overcomes 0.72 and fixates above 0.7220 we will neutralize our medium term negative outlook. The NZD may extend its gains to 0.7250. A failure here will put on hold bulls’ plans. In this scenario the price may return to 0.71.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold stayed around 10-month low as upcoming Fed decision regarding the rate-hike kept on weighing.

Current situation

Gold prices continued to move lower in the yearly trades on Monday. Having posted the session low at 1150 dollars per ounce the price reversed the minor part of its losses. The XAU/USD broke 1160 at the start of the NY session and advanced higher. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1170, the support stands at 1160 dollars per ounce.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative readings, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. We suppose the price will go to 1150 first. Having overcome the first target the yellow metal might advance towards 1140 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew after OPEC and non-OPEC members reached an agreement to cut oil production on Saturday.

Current situation

Oil prices kept the ongoing rally intact on Monday and posted fresh multi-month highs at 57.24 dollars per barrel. The price faced some downward rejection around 57.50 and rolled back after touching the level. Brent prices moved lower and spent the European hours and the start of the NY session around 56.50. The benchmark hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slopes. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator held within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will start as soon, as the price fixates above the support level 56.50 dollars per barrel. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving upwards towards the levels 57.50 and 58.50. However, the benchmark is overbought and we expect some profit taking action which may reduce pace of the rally. Brent oil prices may return to the 54.50 region.

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DAX

General overview

European shares traded mixed on Monday amid oil prices rally and the news that Monte dei Paschi bank got the EU approval for restructuring.

Current situation

DAX kept its upbeat tone unchanged flirting with 11200 resistance. An attempt to extend gains in the early trades faded above 11200 when the prices faced a selling pressure and dropped below the level. The benchmark made another attempt to regain the level during the American session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11200, the support stands at 11100.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone, for rise towards 11300 resistance area.

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NASDAQ

General overview

DAX recorded fresh highs on Monday while NASDAQ traded lower. Wall Street held still ahead of the Fed meeting this Wednesday.

Current situation

NASDAQ Composited opened lower and surged to 4865 post-Asia open. Sellers met a barrier in the 4865 region which made prices slightly roll back after touching the handle. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50 and the 200 EMAs were neutral while the 100 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 4900, the support comes in at 4865.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A close above 4865 will extend gains towards 4900.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:28 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro weakened amid unchanged Economic Sentiment in Germany as investors expected its growth.

Current situation

From a technical point of view the sentiment remained bearish on Tuesday. The pair is still inside of a descending channel pattern. The euro maintained its softer tone, but hovered above 1.0600 support. Sellers seem to be gaining more overall control as the dollar was able to recover some of its Monday's sharp losses. The greenback retreated from weekly highs and tried to break 1.0600 handle during the day. The pair failed to reclaim the level and bounced off it ahead of the NY opening. The price bounced off the100 EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA pointed lower while the 50 and the 100 EMA were flat. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator was neutral.

Trading recommendations


The downtrend is likely to continue. We suppose the pair will go to 1.0600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 1.0550 and 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on better than expected Consumer Price Index. Retail Price Index came in better than expected as well while PPI disappointed investors.

Current situation

The British currency has been trading bullish this week. After retaking the major 1.26 handle the pound extended its advance to fresh 1-week highs at 1.27. Buyers met sellers’ resistance around the level and struggled hard to break it through. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 100 EMA and broke the 50 EMA. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If the current positive tone persists the pound has the potential to reach 1.2740. Conversely, a decline below 1.2650 will deny chances of an upward extension. As the most probable scenario, we expect a decline towards the 1.2600 handle.

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Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese calendars were empty. Markets wait for the Fed’s meeting results expecting to hear confirmations about the rate-hike action by the Fed.

Current situation

The four-week up-trend remained intact on Tuesday. Despite the overall positive sentiment bears still managed to push the pair lower on Monday. The dollar paused its strong uptrend after finding resistance in the 116.00 area. The USD/JPY pair retreated to its immediate support 115.00 region where stayed during the day on Tuesday. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator left overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The bullish market structure remains in place and the trend is not expected to change. Nevertheless we expect a pullback or consolidation in the short term. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 116.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 117.00 level.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The recent oil prices rally supported the Canadian dollar while the US dollar showed choppy trades.

Current situation

The bearish downward structure from November highs remained in place on Tuesday. The price traded around the lower limit of the downward channel. The US dollar seems to have found quite decent support around 1.3100 after five consecutive sessions with losses. The pair spent the European session in a tight range trying hard to retake the level. Sellers managed to break the level ahead of the NY session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.3120 will strengthen sellers’ positions who may extend their gains to 1.3070 -1.3050. Meanwhile, an uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above the resistance level 1.3120.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices returned to a downside expecting the FOMC decision over the rate hike. The chances that the Fed will change its rates are high weighing on the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold traded lower in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price reversed its direction after finding a solid barrier at 1157 post-Europe open. The price climbed above 1160 dollars per ounce reversing a minor part of its recent losses. The upward impetus lost its strength above the just broken level. The price rolled back to 1160 at the start of the NY session. The price remained below the moving averages which all pointed lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 1170, the support stands at 1160 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

XAU/USD needs to regain at least the 1170 zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. However we do not believe it is going to happen. We assume the price will break 1160 handle and will test 1150 dollars per ounce again in the short-term.

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Brent

General overview

The oil prices rally exhausted on Tuesday as investors doubt the recent OPEC agreement will be enough to reduce oil glut. Oil price slightly grew while awaiting fresh weekly crude stockpiles report.

Current situation

After a roll back to 55.50 oil prices stabilized in Europe. Brent bounced from the level, however, the recovery lost steam around 56.50. Brent oil prices softened and broke 55.50 in the North American session. The price declined and returned to the session lows. The benchmark hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA remained flat while the 50 and the 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 55.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 54.50 and 53.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks edged higher as strong Chinese data and upbeat corporate earnings report boosted a risk-on sentiment.

Current situation

Bulls continued to dominate on Tuesday. DAX extended its gains when after the 11200 level break moved to 11300. The benchmark tested the level 11300 in the NY session. The index failed to break the level at once and rolled back after its test. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages pointed higher. The resistance exists at 11300, the support stands at 11200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A move below the current support would suggest a resumption of the downward movement. As the most probable scenario, we consider further easing towards the level at 11100.

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SP500

General overview

Wall Street edged higher on Tuesday amid the FOMC meeting start. Investors are waiting for the Fed results and expected rate-hike.

Current situation

The index strengthened further on Tuesday, sending prices to fresh all-time highs. After trading in a tight range during the Asia and early Europe the benchmark made attempts to reclaim 2260 in the NY session. S&P500 pierced the level and set a daily high at 2273 in the beginning of the US session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If we see a close above 2260 we will keep buying. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving upwards to 2300.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:06 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Euro traded mixed versus the US dollar as traders remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting yesterday. We wait for Germany Manufacturing PMI from Markit later the day.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair opened Wednesday’s session on a bullish note. Traders pushed prices to the 1.0650 level in the early trades but failed to regain it. A fresh bout of selling pressure returned prices to 1.0600. The pair continued trading flat staying in the tight range during the European session and made an attempt to grow in the NY session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs. The EUR/USD continued staying well below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The 200 EMA pointed lower while the 50 and the 100 EMA were neutral. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was neutral.

Trading recommendations

The euro is likely to break below 1.0500 and aim towards 1.0450 region. Meantime, a daily close above 1.0650 may prolong buying interest to 1.0700.

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Pound

General overview

The pound showed mixed trades on Wednesday. The price went up and down amid the EUR/GBP cross activity and upbeat Unemployment data in the country. Moreover the dollar softened amid weak U.S Retail Sales. Today we expect the BoE decision regarding the rate and minutes publication right after that.

Current situation

Bullish market sentiment remained unchanged on Wednesday. However, a lack of upward momentum together with a fresh selling interest sent prices below the recent high at 1.27. The pound moved lower in the early trades and stopped around the 1.2650 mark in the mid-Europe session. However, bulls were able to reverse their losses and returned prices to the session highs to the 1.27 region. The price bounced off the 50 EMA in the Europe session in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We would be selling the pair only if the price drops below 1.2600. The potential sellers’ target is the 1.2500 handle. Otherwise, we will keep buying towards 1.2770.

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Yen

General overview

The BoJ published better-than-expected Tankan Large Manufacturing index on Wednesday and Foreign bond investment in early trades on Thursday.

Current situation

The pair traded in extended narrow consolidation under fresh high at 116.11 on Wednesday. The US dollar was unmoved staying in a tight range during the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs pointed higher. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought readings and headed south.

Trading recommendations

A fresh buying interest will send the USD/JPY pair towards the recent highs at 116.11. A cut here will open the way towards 116.50. We do not rule out a pull back to 114.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian Consumer Confidence index has showed downbeat results since April 2016 which is now welcome news for the Australian dollar.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted on Wednesday. The Australian dollar extended its gains continuing advancing north during the Asian and European sessions. The AUD/USD pair broke the level 0.75 and headed towards 0.7520 in the mid-Europe session. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 200 EMA post-Europe open. The AUD continued developing well above the 50 and the 100 EMAs which pointed higher. The 200 EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

Sustained break above 0.7500 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 0.7550. Otherwise, a fresh selling interest will return the pair below 0.75.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold strengthened on Wednesday as investors were in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s meeting results publication.

Current situation

Gold prices maintained their bearish market structure on Wednesday. The yellow metal showed a minor recovery bounce and traded with minor gains. Bulls broke the level 1160 dollars per ounce and posted a session high above it. However, they were unable to push prices higher than 1165 during the European hours. The precious metal continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1170, the support stands at 1160 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI left the oversold readings and moved to the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. If the price fixates below the 1160 handle, Gold may continue a downward trend in the short term. The sellers’ potential targets are the marks 1150 and 1140 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices weakened after bearish API crude stockpiles report. Brent oil prices extended losses during the day ahead of EIA inventory data and Fed meeting results.

Current situation

Oil markets traded in the red on Wednesday. Brent futures gave up their latest gains for the first time in 4 days. Prices broke 55.50 and extended losses on yesterday’s trades. After posting a session low at 54.70 the benchmark started a consolidation phase and hovered above 54.50 till the late US session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100 EMAs kept heading higher. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved away from overvalued levels.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the benchmark will go to 54.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 53.50. Conversely, Brent will break 55.50 and will extend its upward trajectory to 56.50.

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DAX

General overview

DAX edged lower as traders stayed away from trading awaiting for the FOMC meeting results.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the daily open on Wednesday. Sellers extended their gains, however, they gains were limited. The downward momentum faded at the mark 1233 where the price slightly grew. According to the 4 hours chart the price was above the moving averages which all pointed higher. The resistance exists at 11300, the support stands at 11200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator lost upward strength and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A downtrend will start as soon, as the DAX index drops below the support level 11200. The potential sellers’ targets are 11100 and 11000.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street took a pause ahead of the Fed meeting results ignoring the mixed US data.

Current situation

NASDAQ traded mostly sideways on Wednesday. The index traded range-bound-to higher, remaining confined within a trading range around 4940 during the European session. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 4980, the support comes in at 4940.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

A downtrend will start as soon, as the benchmark drops below the support level 4940. We recommend going short with the first target – 4900. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 4865.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro slightly strengthened in early trades amid upbeat Eurozone Manufacturing PMI release. However, a stronger dollar did not give the single currency a chance to recover. A fresh selling interest sent buyers knock-out.

Current situation

The euro ignored oversold conditions on daily studies and continued moving lower against the background of a US dollar strengthening. The price stayed a while around 1.0500 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair faced further downside pressure and moved lower post-Europe open. Sellers broke 1.0500 and tested 1.0450 in the mid-Europe session. The EUR/USD pair accelerated its decline, broke the level 1.0450 and tested 1.0400 ahead of the NY opening. According to the 4 hours chart price bounced off the 50 EMA downwards. The euro moved away from the moving averages which all pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations


The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards levels 1.0400 and 1.0350.

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Pound

General overview

The pound ignored UK's Retail Sales and made lower in the yearly trades. BoE's members unanimously voted to leave interest-rates and QE program unchanged.

Current situation

The bearish scenario prevailed on Thursday. Sellers extended their gains after a short pause around 1.25. A renewed selling pressure helped them to break the level and the upward trend line in the mid-Europe. The pair left the upward channel and made lower heading towards 1.24 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs downwards and tested the 200 EMA in the mid-Europe session. The 100 and the 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50 EMA turned lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The bearish tone will persist as long as the pound remains below 1.25. If the price fixates below the 1.25 resistance, the GBP/USD pair may continue the downward trajectory in the short term. The potential sellers’ target is the 1.2400 handle.

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Yen

General overview

The Dollar successfully outperformed the yen after the Fed hiked its rates on Wednesday.

Current situation

The USD/JPY maintained its buy mode on Thursday. Buyers managed to climb over the 117.00 level reconfirming the four-week up-trend. After a short uncertainty in the yearly trades bulls pushed the price higher and broke 118.00 in the mid-Europe session. Buyers struggled to consolidate above the level the second part of the day. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations


A break above 118.00 suggests that a medium-term upmove will remain intact. Once we consolidate above 118.00, we think that the 119.00 level will be next.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar softened after the Fed raise its key benchmark interest-rate by 25 bps points. A strong dollar usually weighs on higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi.

Current situation

The kiwi sharply fell on Wednesday and extended its losses on Thursday. The downward impetus slowed down around 0.7100. However, after a brief pause sellers gathered some steam and broke below the level. The NZD continued losing its value post-Europe open and touched 0.7050 ahead of the NY opening. The 0.7050 support area appeared to be a tough nut to crack, the sellers had to give up and moved back to consolidate their gains. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke all moving averages which remained neutral yesterday. The resistance is at 0.7100, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations


After a daily close below 0.7050 we could see the pair extending down to the 0.70 region during the next days.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold dropped to its lowest in more than 10 months on expected reaction after US rate hike and Fed’s plans to hike rates three times in 2017.

Current situation

The bearish market structure remained in place on Thursday. After a brief pause around 1140 a fresh bout of selling pressure sent the yellow metal to fresh lows. The XAU/USD pair moved lower and tested 1130 dollars per ounce post-Europe open. The price struggled hard to break the level in the North American session. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

According to technical studies the road is wide-open for further weakness. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1130 the price may soften to 1120 and 1110 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices maintained a gloomy trend on Thursday's trades after the FOMC changed the rate and planned three more hikes the next year.

Current situation

Brent oil prices are about to leave the upward channel where they have been about a month. A short-lived recovery led the benchmark to 54.50 where a fresh selling interest sent prices downwards. The black oil prices sharply dropped and tested 52.50 at the start of the NY session. The price bounced off the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA turned neutral while the 100 and the 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI moved to the downside.

Trading recommendations


We believe that this is essentially a “sell only” market at the moment. A break below 53.50 risks a decline towards the support 52.50.

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DAX


General overview

European stocks were mostly higher on Thursday getting support from the Fed’s decision to hike the rate. The corporate earnings reports support the markets as well.

Current situation

DAX maintained its bullish structure intact yesterday. Prices stayed around 11300 trying to break it through. DAX has made some significant gains this week, however, buyers seem to have run out of steam and remained flat-out during the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11300, the support stands at 11200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

Inability to move higher points to bulls’ weakness. Is this just a pause before a new rally or a pivot point we will see soon. A downtrend will start as soon, as the index drops below the support level 11200. A break below the level will suggest a further weakness towards 11100. On the other hand a break above will extend the benchmark gains to 11300.

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S&P500

Current situation

The index retreated from the recent highs and traded sideways on Thursday. The benchmark got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 2260. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We would be going short only if the price stays below 2260. The potential seller’s targets are 2240 and 2220.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:12 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Eurozone Trade Balance decreased in October. Export volume declined while the import volume grew after the recent euro fall.

Current situation

The euro slightly recovered on Friday. Traders were able to reverse some of the recent losses when they pushed the price to 1.0450. However, buyers failed to reclaim the level, the upward impetus faded and the price returned below the level. The 4 hours chart showed that the 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA downwards. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A failure to break higher keeps the market under pressure and we expect further weakness. The potential sellers’ targets are 1.0400 and 1.0350.

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Pound

General overview


Last week BoE's meeting did not surprise markets. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0.25%. The pound was able to strengthen on the back of the greenback corrective phase after its recent rally on Friday.

Current situation

The pound grew and reversed early losses on Friday. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following last week sharp sell-off. The recovery was weak as despite the some retracement the dollar remained strong across the board. The price tested the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50 EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.2400. When the price consolidates below the first target the pair may trend to the level 1.2300. A break above 1.25 may cause a further dollar weakening. The sterling may extend its recovery to 1.2550.

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Yen

General overview

Japanese calendar lacked economic data or events on Friday. Traders’ attention was focused on today's BoJ meeting. The regulator expected to leave the rate unchanged. However, Kuroda's remarks had some effect on the yen.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained in bulls' hands. The price traded around 10 month high consolidating below 118.00 on Friday. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. Once we break above 118.00, we think that the 119.00 level will be next. On the other hand a move below 117.00 may neutralize the upward pressure for a while. The pair may test 115.00 in this case.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The dollar weakened amid US housing starts decline on Friday. Oil prices upbeat data supported the Canadian dollar at the same time.

Current situation

The US dollar tried to extend its gains on Friday. Buyers led prices from 1.3330 to 1.3400 where the pair met a solid barrier and slowed down. After touching the level prices turned lower and erased their previous gains. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the100 EMAs upwards and tested the 200 EMA. The 200 and the 100 EMA pointed lower while 50 EMA turned higher. The resistance is at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator held within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations


The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support at 1.3330. Once we break below it, we think that the 1.3260 level will be next. The pair is overbought and we do not rule out a correctional action towards 1.32.

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XAU/USD


General overview

Gold prices bounced off the 10-month lows, however, a roll back is expected to be limited after the Fed rate hike last week.

Current situation

Gold traded within narrow consolidation above fresh low at 1122 on Friday. Prices bounced off 1120 and advanced to the 1140 resistance region where the recovery stalled and the pair declined back to 1130 dollars per ounce. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1140 may extend recovery to 1150 dollars per ounce. A return below 1130 will increase bearish pressure. The price may weaken to 1120 and 1110 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices returned to 17-month highs when oil produces stated they were ready to keep their promise to pull back on output.

Current situation

Oil prices closed the week in the green. The benchmark regained some lost footing on Friday. Brent futures broke 54.50 and extended their recovery to 55.50 dollars per barrel. The price broke the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA remained neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved to upside.

Trading recommendations

The level 55.50 dollars per barrel limits oil prices further extension. A daily close above the level risks the further recovery to 56.50 and 57.50. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 53.50 Brent futures may weaken to 51.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks closed in the green as Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals and Transportation sectors led shares higher.

Current situation

DAX gapped higher at the daily open. After the gap the benchmark extended its gains and climbed above 11400. After posting a daily high at 11450 a buying pressure eased, the index returned to 11400. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed higher. The resistance exists at 11400, the support stands at 11300.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations


A clear strength above the current resistance will pave way for continuation of the DAX's upward trajectory towards 11500. A strong breakdown and close below 11200 could send prices lower towards 11100.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:56 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid upbeat Business Climate report in Germany. However a fresh selling interest stopped its further recovery.

Current situation

The week started quietly, the dollar slightly weakened against its major rivals in the Asian session. The single European currency took an advantage of a weaker dollar and recovered in early trades on Monday. Buyers were able to move prices to 1.0475 where the price faced sellers' resistance. A fresh selling pressure pushed the pair below the level 1.0450 post-Europe open. The currency pair touched the level 1.0400 in the NA session. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA downwards. All moving averages pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

MACD declined which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

If the EUR/USD pair is able to stay below the 1.0450 in the nearest future, the market may resume its downward moving to reach 1.0400 and 1.0350.

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Pound

General overview


The empty UK calendar coupled with a stronger dollar after the Fed's plans for 2017 announcement kept on weighing on the pound.

Current situation

The pair seems to be forming a short-term descending trend-channel. The GBP/USD pair battled with the 1.2500 level in the early trades on Monday. Buyers lost this fight being unable to extend their gains. The level rejected the pound which sharply fell towards 1.24 in the mid-Europe session. The GBP/USD pair broke the level 1.24 at the start of the NY session and advanced further towards 1.23. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The technical indicators resumed their declines within negative territory. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 200 EMA. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 50 EMA pointed lower in the same chart.

MACD traded to the downside while RSI remained within oversold readings, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The overall sentiment is bearish. We do not support the idea of a further recovery which is likely to be stopped around the 1.2535-40 region any way. We suppose the pair will go to 1.2400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The yen grew amid Export and Import data beat all expectations on Monday. However the yen posted moderate gains as traders took wait-and-see mode ahead of the BoJ meeting. Investors expected the regulator would leave its policy unchanged and did not way surprises from the regulator.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair experienced a small retracement in its bullish trend on Monday. After rallying more than 200 pips during .the previous week the dollar moved away and gave room for the yen. Sellers pushed prices from 118.00 to 117.00 where the pair spent the day battling to break lower. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The US Dollar might keep its retracement as investors are taking profit from the recent rally. Technical studies, however, are unable to confirm this outlook, as they keep giving bullish signals. We will place buy orders if the USDJPY does a breakout at the resistance level of 118.00. Then 119.00 seems the next probable bullish target.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar weakened and stayed around 6 month lows awaiting for Australian budget which is consistent with AAA ratings. The Australian regulator will publish its Meeting's Minutes in the early trades on Tuesday.

Current situation

The Australian dollar remained fragile on the dollar strength on Monday. Friday's recovery from the recent lows at 0.7270 stalled around 0.73 when a fresh bout of selling pressure sent a market downwards. The price bounced off the level and fell towards 0.7250. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA downwards. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A final break and close below a former low at 0.7270 signals further downside. Sellers may extend their gains towards 0.7250 and 0.7200.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold maintained its gloomy trend staying around 6 week lows on Monday. Gold prices recovery is limited amid a stronger dollar after the recent FOMC meeting.

Current situation

Gold prices attempted to recover on Monday. The pair reversed some of its losses after posting a fresh low at 1120 dollars per ounce. Bulls moved to 1140 which appeared to be a strong barrier on its way upwards. The slowed down buying impetus and the yellow metal spent the whole day flirting with the level. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was holding near neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. We suppose the XAU/USD pair will go to 1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 1120 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Brent oil prices retreated from the recent lows. However, the downward movement is limited as investors still hope for tighter markets and a negative US dollar in 2017.

Current situation

A brief consolidative phase is over. After booking some profit and reaching 55.50 dollars per barrel oil prices reversed their direction and moved downwards. Sellers are gaining more overall control pushing the benchmark towards 54.50. The price hovered above the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the 55.50 level, the benchmark may continue its down trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 54.50 and 53.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded lower as financial sector was on the downside on Monday.

Current situation

Markets held still on Monday. The benchmark was unmoved staying around 11400 the whole day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above the moving averages which maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11400, the support stands at 11300.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A firm break below 11400 could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 11300 and 11200.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened slightly higher awaiting for Yellen's speech and Services PMI figures.

Current situation

The index stayed around its recent peaks on Monday. SP500 reversed its Friday’s losses and reached 2260 in the yearly trades. Bulls failed to regain the level which pushed prices away. The benchmark rolled back in the NY session. The price tested the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price stays around 2260 a loss of which is needed bears for extension towards next strong support at 2240.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Markets ignored upbeat Producer Price in Germany following the US dollar strengthening after Yellen's hawkish remarks on Monday.

Current situation

The euro continued its decline on Tuesday. The EUR/USD attempted a brief recovery in the early trades, but lost steam slightly above 1.0400 as a renewed risk-on wave returned negative sentiment to the market. The currency pair returned below 1.0400 and advanced towards 1.0350 ahead of the NY opening. The single European currency tested the level in the NY session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price extended its decline below the moving averages which kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1.0400, the support comes in at 1.0350.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 1.0350 we could see the pair extending down to the 1.0300 region during the next days. The level 1.0250 is the next sellers' possible target.

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Pound

General overview

The dollar returned control over the market amid the US policy tightening in 2017.

Current situation

The Asian recovery failed to break the 1.24 hurdle on Tuesday. After posting a daily high at 1.2408 the recovery stalled in the mid-Asia session. Trading volumes increased during the European hours and a fresh selling interest weighed on the sterling sending the currency to fresh lows towards 1.2300. The price remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50 EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2200. Sellers, however, need to break the 1.23 handle first.

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Yen

General overview

The yen weakened amid the latest news from Japan. The BoJ decided to leave the policy unchanged planning to expand its monetary base until inflation exceeds 2%. Moreover, according to the regulator the Japan's economy continued its recovery.

Current situation


USD/JPY rallied on Tuesday following BOJ’s unchanged monetary policy decision. Buyers once again took over control and sent the rate back towards daily tops. Bulls drove the US dollar from 117.00 to 118.00 in the Europe session. The currency pair tested the level ahead of the NY session opening. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100 EMA ahead of the Europe opening. The US dollar broke the 50-EMA on its way upwards and moved away from the moving averages. The 100 and the 200 EMAs kept heading higher while 50 EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI went upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

Trading recommendations


In the scenario where the buyers keep control the price climbs above 118.00 and moves towards 119.00.

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NZD/USD

General overview

J.Yellen’s comments late-Monday regarding stronger jobs market, coupled with fresh expectations of Fed tightening next year supported the US dollar and weighed on higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi.

Current situation

The kiwi extended its bearish slide and fell below 0.6900 in the mid-Europe session on Tuesday. After breaking the level sellers extended their gains towards 0.6850. The price traded below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 200 and the 100 EMAs downwards. All moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 0.6900, the support comes in at 0.6850.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

After breaking 0.6900 the NZD/USD pair will go to 0.6850 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 0.6800.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold weakened on Tuesday amid reinforced expectations over the Fed further policy tightening and regulators plans to hike the rate three more times in 2017.

Current situation

A fresh risk-on sentiment helped sellers to return control. The recent minor-recovery was stopped around the 1140 hurdle. Bears took initiative and pushed the XAU/USD pair towards 1130 dollars per ounce. The 1 hour chart showed that the price bounced off the 100 EMA and broke the 50 EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed lower while the 50 EMA was neutral. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The yellow metal seems to be battling with the 1130 support level. A break below this mark risks a decline towards 1120 and 1110 levels.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew on Tuesday on expectation that OPEC will materialize its output cut deal in 2017. Traders wait for API report on weekly oil inventories in the US.

Current situation

Brent oil prices had a positive day on Tuesday. Sellers' attempt to reclaim 54.50 failed. The price bounced off the level and trended to 55.50. The benchmark broke the level in the NA session. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50 EMA. The moving averages pointed higher. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram slightly changed from yesterday. MACD traded to the upside. RSI moved north which confirms the current upward momentum.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bullish tone. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 55.50
A cut through here will turn attention to the 56.50 level.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Tuesday after acts of terrorism in Germany. However corporate earning reports supported stock markets.

Current situation

The index was in buy mode on Tuesday. After a brief consolidation around 11400 buyers pushed the price higher and extended their gains to 11500. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed higher. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within positive readings.

Trading recommendations

The benchmark maintained its bullish tone and approached 11500 hurdle in the 4 hours chart. Once we break above 11500, we think that the 11600 level will be next.

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NASDAQ

General overview

US stocks traded in the green after Yellen’s hawkish comments. Moreover, investors expected a new bunch of corporate earning reports.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place on Tuesday. The index extended its upside impulse in the European session. Traders moved prices higher and posted a daily high at 4963. The 1 hour chart showed that the price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the early trades. The price bounced off the moving averages afterwards. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA upwards in the same chart. The 50 and the 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 4980, the support comes in at 4940.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI indicator was within undervalued territory, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The bullish trend remains intact. After a close above 4963 the index risks to test 4980. After testing the level NASDAQ Composite may extend its bullishness to 5020.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.12.2016

Euro

General overview

There were no major events on the schedule in the Eurozone on Wednesday. Markets are preparing for the upcoming holidays. The only news that was worth our attention came in the USA – Existing Home Sales. The risk-on sentiment stepped aside and the dollar retreated from its recent highs. The dollar retracement gave the euro buyers a chance to erase some losses.

Current situation

The general downward trend still persists in the market. However, the euro was able to reverse some of its minor losses on Wednesday. After a short struggle around 1.0400 buyers won some ground and pushed the price to 1.0450. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs. The 50 and 100 EMAs appeared to be a strong obstacle to break at once. The price slowed down around the moving averages and stayed there till the NY session opening. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remains within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

We expect an upward correction which will start as soon as the pair rises above the resistance level 1.0400. A break above the level risks a growth towards the resistance at 1.0450. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0500 could be observed further.

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Pound


General overview

The pound edged lower on Wednesday amid negative Public sector net borrowing. Besides, the ongoing decline should be attributed to broad dollar's strength.

Current situation

The sterling continued hovering around the 1.2300 region, with a clearly bearish sentiment. The pair experienced some downside volatility post-Europe open. However, a bearish sentiment did not have legs, after posting a daily low at 1.2317 the currency pair turned around and reversed all its daily losses. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards and approached the 200-EMA. The 100 and the 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50 EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the resistance level 1.2400. Should the pair break the level it might extend its recovery towards 1.2450 and 1.2500. However, the possibility of a positive outcome is still low and we expect more downside action in the short-term.

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Yen

General overview

Kuroda's remark encouraged the yen selling as well as the divergence between U.S.- Japan interest rate. The ongoing correction can be attributed to the broad dollar weakening coupled with some profit taking before Christmas holidays.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish on Wednesday. The US dollar retreated from its recent high at 118.00 and touched the level 117.00 at the yesterday’s trades. The price broke the 100 EMA and 50 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 200 EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 100 EMAs were flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY currency pair is likely to climb higher again. Buyers’ primary target is the level 119.00. The chances to break the level are high as the pair made several successful attempts to reach the level over the last two weeks. We do not rule out a further correction towards the level at 116.00.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The USD/CAD erased its recent gains amid Oil prices strengthening and bearish DXY index. Today we expect to see a fresh bunch of the Canadian data. Investors wait for Canadian CPI and retail sales data alongside the US GDP figures to receive next direction on the major.

Current situation

The US dollar tried hard to fight back control versus its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday. But all its attempts to reclaim 1.3400 failed. A fresh selling interest weighed on the price. The pair spent the day in a tight range below 1.3400 gathering steam for a fresh leg action. According to the 4 hours chart the price traded above the moving averages. The USD/CAD pair tested the 200-EMA struggling with the moving average to move lower. The 200-EMA was flat, the 100-EMA pointed lower while the 50-EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 0.6900, the support comes in at 0.6850.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

After a close below the resistance at 1.3400 the pair USDCAD may extend its weakness to 1.3470. To extend its weakness the price needs to break below 1.3360. Sellers may drive the pair to 1.3330 in the short-term. To neutralize the current downward pressure buyers need to retake the 1.3400 level.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold traded around 11 month low remaining under pressure amid a stronger dollar and fresh expectations around new Fed rate hikes in 2017.

Current situation

The medium term downtrend still persists in the market. We do not see signals of a stronger recovery for now. However, the precious metal managed to regain Tuesday's losses yesterday. Buyers moved prices from 1125 to 1135 where they stopped and extended its consolidation above fresh low at 1122 dollars per ounce. The price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA downwards in the same chart. The 50 and the 100 EMAs were neutral while 200 EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings, and headed now south.

Trading recommendations

We will place buy orders if the XAUUSD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1140. In the scenario where the buyers keep control the pair may advance to 1150. On the other hand, a fresh selling interest may drive gold prices to fresh multi month lows at 1120 and 1110 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

The news that Libya plans to boost its production weighed on oil prices. Besides, oil prices moved lower on Wednesday before Crude Oil Stocks change release.

Current situation

Oil price maintained its bullish near-term tone on Wednesday. The benchmark extended its consolidative pattern trading comfortably around 55.50 unable to set short-term direction. However, the latest price action points to bears sentiment as buyers' attempt to retake 55.50 failed. The price remained above the moving averages in the 1 hour chart. Brent oil prices tested the 50 EMA ahead of NY opening. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA in the same chart. The 100 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 50 EMA was neutral. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below 55.50, the benchmark may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 54.50 and 53.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks stayed neutral on Wednesday as investors preferred to stay away from trading ahead of Christmas holidays. Meanwhile markets are concerned about financial instability around Italian and Spanish central banks.

Current situation

The index remained in a near-term directionless mode on Wednesday. The benchmark was confined within a tight trading between 11440 and 11480. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

We would be selling only if the price drops below 11400. The potential sellers’ target is 11300.

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SP500

Current situation

The index extended its consolidation phase staying above 2260. According to the 1 hour chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 50 and the 200 EMAs pointed higher while the 100 EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The price now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 2260. If SP500 fixates below the handle, the benchmark may continue the downward trend in the short term.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:02 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar ignored positive US data on Thursday. Durable Goods Orders beat traders' expectations. Gross Domestic Product Price for Q3 came in a line with expectations while the Annualized GDP showed better-than-expected results.

Current situation

The euro strengthened further in the European session on Thursday, sending EUR/USD to fresh weekly highs. The pair broke the level 1.0450 in the early trades and made an attempt to reach its immediate resistance near 1.0500. However, bulls failed to reclaim the level and the major currency pair returned to 1.0450 ahead of the NY opening. The 1 hour chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs upwards and tested the 200-EMA in the same chart. The 50 and the 100 EMA were neutral while the 200 EMA pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI went upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

Trading recommendations

Despite of near-term oversold conditions, the euro is unlikely to show any meaningful recovery. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 1.0450. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.0500 level. Inability to break higher will turn the market downwards.

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Pound

General overview

The pound remained rangebound awating for GDP release on Friday.

Current situation

GBP/USD remained under pressure on Thursday. The pair hovered not far from its recent lows in the 1.2300 region. The price remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 200 EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200 EMAs averages were neutral while the 50 EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

If the pound maintains its bearish tone a break below 1.2300 will suggest further decline towards 1.2250, en route 1.2200.

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Yen

General overview

Japanese markets were closed amid the Emperor's Birthday celebration.

Current situation

A medium-term uptrend remained intact on Thursday. Bulls managed to reverse some of their recent losses and pushed the price from 117.00 to 118.00 in the early trades. The recovery was stalled around 117.70 where the pair stopped and stayed almost unmoved till the end of the European session. According to the 1 hour chart the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs. The currency pair remained between the 50 and 100 EMAs on the one side and the 200-EMA on the other. The 200 EMA kept heading higher while the 50 and the 100 EMAs were flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was near neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe the USD/JPY pair will remain in a consolidation as the market became thinner ahead of Christmas weekend. Nevertheless, our outlook is still bullish, for a break through 118.00 resistance, towards 119.00 area, en route 120.00.

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AUD/USD

General overview

Expectations over a faster US economic growth coupled with Donald Trump's aggressive fiscal spending program and hawkish Fed's outlook for 2017 make investors stay away from higher-yielding currencies, including the Australian Dollar.

Current situation

The bearish scenario prevailed on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair moved lower after two-day narrow consolidation. Sellers drove the Aussie from 0.7250 to 0.7200 during the European hours. The level 0.7200 stopped sellers. After touching the level prices rolled back. The Aussie bounced off the 50 EMA and moved downwards in the 1 hour chart. The moving averaged maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels at 0.7150 and 0.7100.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold remained unmoved on Thursday as trading volumes decline ahead of Christmas week-end.

Current situation

Gold remains bearish overall, with bias at the downside. The yellow metal showed little movement on Thursday and stayed in a narrow range between 1130 and 1135 dollars per ounce. According to the 1 hour chart the prices touched and bounced off the 50-EMA. The 50 and the 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 100 EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers’. The RSI indicator held within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

We will stay out of trading waiting for fresh signals. A clear break of either side of the current consolidation range is needed to signal fresh direction.

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Brent

General overview

Oil remained under pressure amid the US inventories rise. Moreover, may investors preferred to cut their long positions ahead of the upcoming holidays.

Current situation

Bren prices settled lower on Thursday. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours sellers pushed the price lower. They broke the resistance at 54.50 and headed towards 53.50 dollars per barrel. The downside movement was slow ahead of the US statistics and due to the thin market ahead of the Christmas holidays. The price broke 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator left neutral territory and moved south.

Trading recommendations

To trigger additional downward momentum towards 53.50 the price needs to fixates below the level 54.50.

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DAX

General overview

The European equity market was neutral as markets became thinner ahead of Christmas holidays.

Current situation

DAX showed calm trades on Thursday. The benchmark slightly changed during the course of trades. The price remained in-between 11500 and 11400. The 1 hour chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator turned lower and moved towards neutral readings.

Trading recommendations

We won't trade until we see a break of the current consolidation structure.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

The index traded mostly sideways on Thursday. The price stayed in a tight range between 4940 and 4950. The benchmark tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. NASDAQ remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which kept heading higher. The resistance is at 4980, the support comes in at 4940.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations

If the price drops below the support 4940, NASDAQ risks to test 4900.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Dec 25, 2016 3:09 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro got support from the Euroland positive data. Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany coincided with the forecasts. Consumer Spending in France grew while GDP remained unchanged.

Current situation

The euro extended its recovery in holiday-quiet European session on Friday. However, its progress was subdued as most investors moved away to celebrate Christmas, leaving thin liquidity in the market. According to the 1 hour chart the price was between the 200-EMA and the 50-EMA. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.0400. Should the price consolidate below the first target EUR/USD may decline to the 1.0350 handle. Alternatively, the euro may maintain its bid tone if manages to reclaim 1.0450. In this scenario buyers will climb to 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound ignored GDP for Q3 and Current Account upbeat data remaining under pressure on Friday.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained in a bearish channel on Friday. A break below 1.23 reaffirmed the bearish sentiment in the market. Sellers made a sharp drop below 1.23 and posted a daily low at 1.2250 post-Europe open. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations


If the price gets below 1.2250 a new wave of selling pressure may drag the pound below 1.22. The next sellers' target is 1.2160 support area where the pair may hang around for a while before eventually dropping to 1.2100 round figure mark.

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Yen

General overview

The Japanese market was closed on Friday amid The Emperor's Birthday celebration. Meanwhile investors kept closing their positions ahead of Christmas holidays.

Current situation

USD/JPY is in a phase of downside consolidation. The pair traded with mild bearish tone. The market remained light on the last trading day of pre-Christmas week amid lack of liquidity. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart but failed to move lower. The price remained above the moving averages which kept pointing higher. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

The bearish scenario prevailed on Friday. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 117.00. After the handle break the next level to focus on is 119.00. A failure to break lower shall send this market upwards to 118.00 and 118.50.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The kiwi slowed down its decline amid the recent positive data: Current Account and Gross Domestic Product showed upbeat figures in the country.

Current situation

The pair remained around 0.6900 handle flirting with the level during the day. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the 50-EMA. The price was well below the moving averages which kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 0.6950, the support comes in at 0.6900.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings. RSI moved north which confirms the current upward momentum.

Trading recommendations

We expect an upward correction which will start as soon as the pair rises above the resistance level 0.6950. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7000 level.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices posted some gains on Friday. However, Friday’s trades were subdued amid Christmas holidays. The overall picture is bearish and the metal remains around 10-month lows. A strong dollar and planned rate hikes in 2017 keep weighing on gold.

Current situation

Some fresh bids helped the metal to retake 1130 level. The XAU/USD pair extended its recovery amid renewed weakness seen in the dollar. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages turned out to be a solid barrier which held bulls’ recovery. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while 200-EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1140, the support stands at 1130 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI entered the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Despite the recent recovery a bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. Bears may break the level 1130 in the short-term and move prices to 1120 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices ignored reports of rising Chinese oil demand and weakened amid a thin market on Friday. Investors kept cutting positions before week-end.

Current situation

Brent returned in the red zone on Friday. An attempt to recover faced a rejection around 55.22 dollars per barrel. The benchmark declined in the early trades and tested to 54.50 in the European session. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA was neutral while the 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a downward correction which will start as soon as Brent drops below the support level 54.50.

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DAX

General overview

European shares traded higher on Friday despite a thin market ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Current situation

DAX gapped higher at the daily open on Friday. The price jumped to 11500 level, but failed the reclaim it. The index faced some rejection and retreated back to 11400. After testing the level the benchmark rolled back and erased the half of its daily losses. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved south.

Trading recommendations

DAX is likely to resume its downward movement in the short term. Sellers need to break below 11400 first. After breaking the level sellers may lead prices to 11300.

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SP500

General overview

Wall Street traded mixed on Friday despite gains in the Healthcare, Consumer Goods and Financials sectors.

Current situation

The index was in a buy mode in the early trades on Friday. S&P500 grew and touched 2260 post-Europe open. Having tested the level the price moved lower and posted a daily low at 2254. The benchmark grew after that and returned to 2260 hurdle by the end of the trades. The price broke the 50-EMA and was flirting with the line afterwards in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario now, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 2240.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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