"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.10.2016


Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened amid renewed optimism regarding Deutsсhe Bank.

Current situation

Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The euro was low volatile during the European hours on Monday. The EUR/USD remained below 1.1250 and kept its range-trade intact during the course of trade. The price decreased in the NY session. The price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages provide a strong support for the main currency pair. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200.

MACD is in the positive area. RSI remained within the neutral territory on Monday.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.1200 remains the key support area to watch for. A clear break below will open the way towards 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound decreased on Monday despite the positive Manufacturing PMI. The report did not convince investors in a growing strength of the UK economy after the Brexit. Theresa May (Britain's Prime Minister) set the final date for the Brexit which weighed on the pound as well.

Current situation

The GBP/USD gapped downwards in the Asian session on Monday. The price continued moving south during the European trade. The pair broke 1.2900 and began consolidating its gains. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages keep heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2900, the support exists at 1.2800.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The loss of the 1.2900 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2800. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.2700 is possible.



Yen

General overview

The yen was neutral on Monday despite the strong Tankan release. Markets ignored the report, awaiting for the U.S. Manufacturing PMI later this day.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained neutral on Monday. The dollar looked firm against the yen. The price traded in a narrow range between 101.10 – 101.60 during the European trade hours. The pair started a consolidation phase after a strong rebound from the 3-month support line – 100.06. The USD/JPY was sandwiched between the 100 and 200 EMAs which provide an immediate support and resistance. The moving averages are slowing down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is close to the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days.



USD/CAD

General overview

The upbeat sentiment around oil prices supported the commodity currencies, including loonie
.
Current situation

Bears tried to return control over the market. The pair was neutral during the Asian hours and got under selling pressure in the European session. Sellers were able to break the 1.3100 level, but failed to stay there. The price bounced from the 1.3070 mark. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair broke the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100.

MACD remained at the same levels which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The USD/CAD still looks bullish. The price is expected to grow further towards 1.3200 soon. Should the pair consolidate below 1.3040 and sellers will push the price towards 1.2900.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices remained intact on Monday even though the fears regarding a Deutsche Bank collapse eased.

Current situation

Gold was steady on Monday after last Friday’s sharp decrease. The pair traded around the recent lows close to the 1310 level. Gold prices are below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are all pointing lower. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained negative. RSI is in the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1310. A close below the level will trigger losses to the 1305 mark. A break above 1320 could cheer up buyers and would open the way to the 1327-1330 region.



Brent

General overview

Oil grew on Monday amid risk appetite growth. OPEC’s plans to cut production support on both sides of the Atlantic.

Current situation

Oil prices remained under buying pressure on Monday. Despite the gap downwards at the open of the Asian session, the price turned around and extended last week growth. Brent approached the August high that was posted on the 19th August. The price remained well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100-EMA upwards. All moving averages are trending higher. The resistance is at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is positive. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

We expect a correction which may last a few days to ease the current overbought scenario. Oil may return below 49.50 to the 48.50 region.



DAX

General overview

European stocks were neutral on Monday as a threat of a Deutsche Bank collapse decreased. Germany stocks were closed due to "Day of German Unity" celebration.

Current situation

The index remained at last week highs due to the day off. The 200-EMA stopped the DAX further growth. The 100 and 200 EMAs provide a strong resistance for the price. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are pointing lower, while the 200-EMA kept heading north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350.

The MACD and RSI indicators did not change since Friday.

Trading recommendations

After last week sharp spike the price is expected to roll back. We expect a correction towards 10350.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened in the red territory on Monday when healthcare and consumer sectors led the shares down.

Current situation

The index decisively traded below the 2165 mark on Monday. The price retreated from last week high and partly erased latest gains during European trade. S&P500 continued moving lower at the beginning of the New York session. The price bounced from the 200-EMA and rolled back towards the 100-EMA. In the 4 hours chart the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150.

MACD decreased which points the buyers’ weakness. RSI remained neutral.

Trading recommendations

Bears seem to have returned in the game. The upward movement is out of steam, sellers shall lead the price towards 2140 through 2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

Dear forum users!

We would like to draw your attention that the registration for the "Money never sleeps" contest held by FortFS and the prize fund of 25 000 USD continues.

The contest's terms and conditions can be found here

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened across the board amid renewed speculation that the Fed may raise rates this year.

Current situation

The single European currency failed to regain the resistance 1.1250 and had a sharp drop below the mentioned level on Tuesday. The price fell towards 1.1150 where sellers ran out of steam, the EUR/USD pair slowed down its decline and rolled back to the 1.1170 region. The euro broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are fallowing the price downwards. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The price will struggle with the 1.1150 level to go further. Once we break below the current support, we think that the 1.11 level will be next. Any rebound above the level 1.1150 we consider corrective.



Pound

General overview

The pound hit 31-year low against the dollar despite positive U.K. Construction PMI on hard Brexit fears.

Current situation

The GBP/USD maintained its negative tone in the market. The pound dipped lower and refreshed three-decade lows. The sterling broke the support level 1.2800 and declined further, approaching the next level – 1.2700. In the 4 hours chart, the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support exists at 1.2700.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Bears have the ball now. We are looking for the current support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2600. The price may correct towards the 1.2850 region. After rolling back sellers may try again to break the immediate barrier.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell amid risk-appetite growth. Moreover, investors doubt that the BoJ will reach the targeted 2% inflation in the nearest term.

Current situation

The neutral tone switched to the bullish one. The pair continued to advance north and was able to test the level 102.50 at the start of NY session. The USD/JPY advanced north away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price and are turning upwards. The resistance can be found at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40.

MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A consolidation above 102.50 will indicate a start of a bullish phase. We expect further moving upwards as long as the support 101.40 remains intact.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Aussie softened when the RBA the left the rate unchanged on Tuesday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD retreated from the 3-day highs on Tuesday. The overall outlook remains bullish and the current pullback is seen as consolidation. The price is approaching the level 0.7650. The moving averages kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support stands at 0.7650.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A bullish continuation through 0.7700 should lead to a continued slide, with 0.7750 as the first probable target. A close below 0.7650 could extend the current weakening towards 0.7630.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices decreased on Tuesday as optimistic U.S. data kept weighing on the metal.

Current situation

Gold switched the neutral tone to the bearish one. The XAU/USD extended its weakness on Tuesday. After consolidation during the Asian session the price sharply fell below 1310 dollar per ounce and advanced towards 1280. The pair broke the 1300 and 1290 levels on its way downwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support comes in at 1290 dollar per ounce.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations

A strong breakdown and close below 1290 dollar per ounce could send prices lower towards 1280. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a roll back towards 1305.



Brent

General overview

Brent eased on the news that Iran reached the pre-sanction oil production. Next in focus would be API report in the late North American session on Tuesday.

Current situation

Oil prices traded close to the monthly highs on Tuesday. Brent remained in an ascending channel. Oil futures grew and refreshed weekly high at 51.25 during the course of the day. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI approached the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

If buyers fail to hold over 50.50 oil prices will decline to 49.50. A break above 51.50 would open the way to 52.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened higher on Tuesday. DAX grew as Deutsche Bank shares continued their recovery after receiving support from its major clients and some rivals.

Current situation

The DAX index continued with its recovery on Tuesday. The price moved from the level 10520 towards the nearest resistance at 10700. DAX broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and headed away from them. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The overall picture is bullish now. We assume the price will keep growing towards 10700.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened the day positively on the back of the technology sector growth. Investors still evaluate the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike in the coming months.

Current situation

The index traded in an upward channel. The price moved upwards from its lower boundary. NASDAQ could escalate to 4888 and broke above previous day’s top. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The NASDAQ index traded in the green on Tuesday. If the upward pressure persists the index might extend its growth towards 4900. Should the index get below 4865 and the price could ease to 4835.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened and approached Tuesday’s high on Wednesday. There were no many macroeconomic releases in the EU. Investors’ attention now turns to the possible ECB's quantitative easing plans tapering.

Current situation

In the medium term, the outlook is neutral. The EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.1150 level. The rally stopped at 1.1230, the price was in a consolidative range above 1.1200 during the European hours. The ongoing recovery could also be attributed to some profit taking from sellers after a sharp decrease on Monday. The pair moved down ahead of the US opening. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay neutral ahead of Non-Farm report. Technically the downtrend remained intact. As the most probable scenario, we expect a slow decrease below 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure as the ongoing concerns of 'hard Brexit' kept weighing on market sentiment.

Current situation

The GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years and keeps falling now. The downtrend stalled at 1.2700 on Wednesday. The market was inactive after nearly five-day decrease. Sellers consolidated its gains and held the price at the current lows. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support lies at 1.2700.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD may recover to reverse some of its losses. The pound could grow to 1.2840. Our near-term outlook is bearish. We expect the price to decline further.



Yen

General overview

The dollar remained close to 2-month high due to hawkish Fed officials’ comments.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is up. The USD/JPY closed bullish on Tuesday and extended its strength on Wednesday. The dollar continued moving higher and refreshed the current high at 103.20. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price upwards. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards and is approaching the 200-EMA in the same chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

We feel comfortable taking a short-term long position. Bulls will definitely try to test the 103.50 resistance. The pair is overbought and we do not exclude its correction below 102.50.



NZD/USD

General overview

Weak dairy auction products together with risk-aversion on the back of the bonds yields growth weighed on the kiwi.

Current situation

The bearish trend remained intact on Wednesday. The price kept battling with the 0.7165 mark to decline further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The loss of the 0.7200 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. Sellers will try to lead the price to 0.7120.

Alternatively, the NZD/USD pair may try to regain the level 0.7200. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7230 is possible.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices bounced from the 3-month low on expectations over the Fed's next monetary policy action in December.

Current situation

Gold prices remained in the red territory on Wednesday. Sellers consolidated their gains after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The yellow metal spent the day around 1270 dollar per ounce. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs turned down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1280, the support comes in at 1270 dollar per ounce.

MACD is negative. RSI is in the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations

The level 1270 limited the further decline of the metal. A cut through here will aim at the 1260 level. If the current support rejects the price the XAU/USD will grow towards 1290 dollar per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew following the API report which showed that the US crude inventories dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week.

Current situation

Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. Oil prices kept growing after a brief consolidative phase during the Asian hours. Brent was able to break 51.50 ahead of the US opening. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices paused awaiting for EIA data ahead of NY trading session. A growth in inventories will weigh on Brent prices. On the other hand, its decrease will push the price higher.



DAX

General overview

European stocked opened neutral due to concerns over the ECB’ annotative program tapering.

Current situation

DAX traded sideways on Wednesday. The index traded within a tight range between 10600 and 10520. The DAX index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10700. The price spent the day around the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 100-EMA direction is downwards, the 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is consolidating within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The index is trying to break above 10600 upwards. A clear strength above this mark will pave way for continuation of the index’s upward trajectory towards 10700.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday on the back of the energy sector strengthening due to the oil prices growth.

Current situation

The index reversed some of its Tuesday’s losses when rebounded from the level 2140. The price grew to the nearest resistance where the upward momentum faded. The overall picture remained bearish. The price grew to the 100-EMA which stopped its further growth. The 50 and 100 EMAs act provide a strong resistance for the S&P500. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral area. The oscillator is slowly decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards 2140.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro decreased despite strong Factory Orders in Germany. Erkki Liikanen's comments weighed on the single European currency. According to Liikanen low interest rates and aggressive bond buying are necessary to support the Eurozone’s economy.

Current situation

The market was quite this Thursday. The euro kept on declining after a sharp growth at the start of the week. The price traded lower 1.1200 towards 1.1150 during the European session. The EUR/USD pair broke the moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150.

MACD is in the negative area. RSI is approaching the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair will remain under pressure until it gets new upbeat drivers. Investors’ attention now turns to the US nonfarm payrolls report. The price may dip further on the back of the stronger NFP report. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards to the levels 1.1150 and 1.1100. On the other hand, the currency pair may grow back above 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The pound refreshed 3-decade lows. The UK currency remains vulnerable amid Brexit-related concerns.

Current situation

The pair is now grossly oversold in the short term. The pound traded onto the latest lows on Thursday. The price remained in a tight range between 1.2700 - 1.2800 during the European trades. The sterling moved lower ahead of the US opening. The GBP/USD moved lower under the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading south. The current resistance is seen at 1.2700, the support lies at 1.2600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The pound is expected to remain vulnerable due to ongoing Brexit. The GBP/USD pair is likely to decline further. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2600. After breaking the level sellers will push the price to 1.2500.



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY strengthened as growing expectations for a U.S. rate hike in 2016 continued to support the US dollar.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone. The price remained in a short-term upward channel. The pair reached a key technical level – 103.50 in early Europe. After a brief consolidation the price extended its gains and moved towards 104.30. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which is a buy signal. All moving averages moved upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY remains bullish with a target 104.30. The price needs to move below 102.50 to switch the tone to bearish.



USD/CAD

General overview

The USD/CAD extended its gains on Thursday on the back of a stronger dollar.

Current situation

The price recovered after Wednesday’s brief decrease yesterday. Buyers pushed the price from the current low at 1.3160 towards the immediate resistance where the buying interest faded for a while. Bulls returned to the market at the beginning of the New York session and the USD/CAD continued to struggle with the level 1.3200. The USD/CAD pair remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100.

The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

To trigger additional upward momentum the price needs to break above 1.3200. Once we break above the level, we think that the 1.3280 mark will be next.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices continued to lose value on Thursday as increasing expectations of a Fed’s rate hike in December, 2016 keep fuelling the demand for the dollar.

Current situation

Gold extended its weakness on Thursday. The yellow metal has been falling the eighth session in a row and has refreshed 4-month lows. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours the price faced a downside pressure and extended its weakness towards 1260 dollar per ounce. After breaking the support 1260 the XAU/USD trended lower towards 1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. All moving averages kept heading south. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

Gold futures are most likely to continue to move lower. The next sellers’ targets are the supports: 1250 and 1240.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices got additional support following Algeria's Energy Minister statements that OPEC could cut production more if needed.

Current situation

The bullish trend remained intact on Thursday. Brent futures accelerated their gains and moved higher to the level 51.50. Oil prices left the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs behind in the 4 hours chart. After breaking the 100 and 200 EMAs the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the 100 and 200 EMA moderately kept growing. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Brent prices will strengthen further towards 53.50 if the upward momentum persists.



DAX

General overview

European stocks were neutral ahead of the U.S. unemployment release on Friday.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted on Thursday. However, the neutral phase that started this week is still intact. DAX traded sideways, the index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10600. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish, the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the line is about to cross the 100-EMA which is heading lower. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will start as soon, as the DAX index rises above the resistance level 10600. If the price moves below 10500 we will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. Sellers may push the price towards 10400.



NASDAG

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Thursday following the European stocks decline. The upcoming labour market report (the Non-Farm payroll release) weighs on the U.S. equities as well.

Current situation

The index remained in the upwards channel. NASDAQ gave up its latest gains and faced a downside pressure yesterday. Sellers were able to move the price lower from the mark 4880 below the level 4865. The downward momentum faded during NY trading session. The price found a solid support at the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835.

MACD decreased which confirms the current strength of sellers. RSI moved towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A clear break below the 4865 support will indicate that the upward movement from 4888 is over. The following downward movement could bring prices back to the 4740 area. On the upside, as long as the level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro remained under pressure against the US dollar despite the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Current situation

The market was neutral in the European session on Friday as investors waited for the NFP report. The euro broke the 1.1150 level and tested 1.1100 (two-month low) where it seems to have found a descent support. After testing the level 1.1150 the price rebounded and headed towards 1.1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning lower in the 4 hours chart. The price broke the moving averages upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is still under pressure and remains vulnerable to further downslide in the near-term. A close below 1.1100 will extend losses towards 1.1070. We will place buy orders if we see a daily closing above 1.1200. Meanwhile, any move above 1.1100 we consider corrective.



Pound

General overview

The pound weakened against the dollar after François Hollande’s comments who said if the UK wants hard Brexit they will get it.

Current situation

The pound collapsed and sharply fell during the Asian session on Friday. The sterling crashed below 1.2600 and extended its losses towards 1.1900 at night. The GBP/USD lost about 6% overnight. After a sharp fall the price returned to the 1.2400 region where it remained during the day. The moving averages kept heading lower, following the price downwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support lies at 1.2400.

MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The pair is oversold. We expect sideways trades and a recovery towards 1.2600.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened amid risk aversion following the collapse of the pound. The weak NFP report weighed on the dollar and supported the yen.

Current situation

After refreshing the weekly high the pair was in a neutral phase during the day. The dollar almost reached the September high at 104.30, the price stopped a few pips below it. The USD/JPY pair traded within 50-pips range consolidation ahead of the U.S Non Farm Payrolls report. The dollar weakened after the report, the USD/JPY retreated from the recent highs and moved lower. The price broke the level 103.50 and moved towards 102.50. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their growth. The moving averages are turning downwards. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The current recovery is a profit taking from bulls after one week growth. Should the price consolidate below 103.50 the pair may decline to 102.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

Weak U.S. labor market data helped the AUD/USD pair to extend its recovery from two-week lows.

Current situation

Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The AUD/USD is in a short-term descending channel. After a 4-day decrease the price seems to have found a strong support around 0.7550 where it formed a consolidation range – 0.7550 and 0.7590. The Aussie tried to break above the moving averages, however, the 200-EMA stopped its growth. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support stands at 0.7540.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A break above 0.7600 will extend recovery towards 0.7650. The nearest sellers' target remains the support level 0.7540.



XAUUSD

General overview

Despite the weak US Non-farm Payrolls gold prices remained under pressure as the probability of a Fed rate-hike at the December meeting remains high.

Current situation

The XAU/USD pair traded in a consolidation range during the Asian and European sessions on Friday. Sellers consolidated their gains after one week decrease. The price found a support at 1250 and traded above the level during the day. Gold managed to reverse some of its losses and recovered to 1265 after the US NFP report. The price tried to regain the level but failed and faced another wave of the selling pressure. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. RSI indicator stayed near the oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay neutral for now. The price will remain in a range in the lack of new drivers. Buyers may reverse some of their losses if they push the price higher to 1270.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices remained within green territory amid strong US inventories reports and hopes of an output deal.

Current situation

The price remained in an upward channel, close to its upper limit. Brent retreated from the recent highs and erased some of its losses on Friday. The price moved below 52.50 and headed towards the nearest support at 51.50. Brent futures hover over the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The moving averages keep moving higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI bounced from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices remained bullish. To keep growing the price needs to break above 52.50. A break below 50.50 would signal correction as daily studies are overbought.



DAX

General overview

European stock traded lower on Friday due to Retail, Media and Transportation & Logistics shares weakness in Germany.

Current situation

DAX gapped downwards on Friday and continued moving lower during the day. The price was struggling with the level 10500 the whole day and finely broke it at close of trade. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 200 EMAs are moving higher. The 100-EMA is pointing south, crossing the 50-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 10500, the support is at 10400.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the downward pressure persists the price will decline below 10500. Sellers will lead the index towards 10400. If the level 10500 holds DAX could escalate to 10600.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street traded lower on Friday following a lightly weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The latest labour data can put the Fed rate hike on hold.

Current situation

The index remained in sideways with a tendency to grow during the European session on Friday. However, after a disappointing U.S. labour data the index sharply fell below 2150 and tested the level 2140. S&P500 broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are heading lower in the same timeframe. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved to the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

A move below 2140 will strengthen sellers who will try to lead the price towards 2130. If the level 2140 holds the index can bounce upwards towards 2165.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.10.2016

Euro

General overview

Japanese, Canadian and USA markets were closed. The dollar strengthened after the second U.S. Presidential debates where Mrs. Clinton emerged victorious as Mr. Trump’s reputation was damaged after a leak of a video where he insulted women.

Current situation

The common European currency is again under pressure. The level 1.1200 stopped its recovery, the price turned around and headed towards 1.1150. The EUR/USD is still in a descending channel, moving to its lower trend line. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs protected the level 1.1200. The price bounced from them and moved downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI headed towards the negative levels.

Trading recommendations

If the downward pressure persists the EUR/USD may retest the level 1.1150. A clear break below the level will open the way towards last week low mark at 1.1100.



Pound

General overview

The British pound is under pressure the second week in a row. The positive UK data was not able to support the sterling.

Current situation

The pound was inactive on Monday, trading lower after turbulent Friday’s trades. The sterling was attempting to consolidate around 1.2400 during the trades on Monday. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed their downward movement in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support lies at 1.2400.

MACD shows a divergence in the 4 hours chart. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD is oversold, trading will be according to technical factors, due to the absence of strong drivers. If the price rebounds from the current support the currency pair will grow towards 1.2600. A downward pressure will send the quotes towards the historical lows at 1.2000.



Yen

General overview

The dollar kept strengthening across the board on expectations that the Fed will hike rate this year.

Current situation

The trend is clearly bullish for now. The USD/JPY pair was in buy mode on Monday. The pair has completed a downside impulse, the price bounced from the mark 102.90 and moved higher. The pair recovered all its losses during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart, the price is in a mid-term ascending channel, moving upwards from its lower limit. The 50-EMA extended its growth, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moderately bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

MACD shows a divergence in the 1 hour chart. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI moved towards the overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

The indicators recommend long positions, suggesting the pair is to grow further. Buyers seem to plan to re-test 103.50 and to move higher towards last week high at 104.14.



NZD/USD

[b]Current situation

Technically, the pair preserved its near-term downward trajectory. The NZD/USD pair gapped higher on Monday. The price was able to recover to 0.7180, where sellers turned it around. The kiwi was falling during the Asian and European sessions and reached the level 0.7120 at the beginning of the New York session. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs moved lower. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations

A beak below 0.7120 will extend losses towards 0.7050. To strengthen the NZD/USD needs to have a daily close above 0.7250. Meanwhile, any move above the current support we consider as corrective.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold recovered on Monday despite Cleveland Fed President’s speech where he supported the idea of a U.S. rate hike in 2016.

Current situation

Gold gapped higher at the start of the new week. The price extended its recovery on Monday after a sharp decrease on Friday. The XAU/USD broke the level 1260 upwards and slowed down a few pips above it. The pair slightly eased at the NY open. The moving averages maintained their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remains within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A move below 1250 will signal the return of sellers. The yellow metal may extend its losses towards 1240.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew on Monday when Russia said to support the global production freeze.

Current situation

The bullish scenario prevailed on Monday. After a gap lower at the beginning of the Asian session Brent prices bounced off the support 51.50 dollars per barrel and trended upwards. Oil prices extended their gains during the day, the quotes broke the level 52.50 and touched 53.50. Brent hit one-year high during NY trading session. Prices continued developing well above the bullish 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages accelerated their growth. All moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD shows a divergence in the 4 hours chart. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI approached the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Bulls fought back control and pushed the price higher on Monday. Their primary goal is the level 54.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

Current situation

DAX gapped downwards on Monday, but failed to move lower. Prices refreshed a daily low at 10430, turned around and rallied towards 10600. DAX broke the level 10500 on its way upwards. After touching the level 10600 the price slowed down and remained around the level. The moving averages retained mixed signals yesterday. The 100-EMA is steadily bearish, the 50-EMA has just turned down, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the upwards pressure persists the price will break the level 10600 to extend its gains. If DAX fails to reclaim the level prices may fall below 10500.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened higher on Monday fallowing the results of the second presidential debate. Moreover, oil prices growth supported energy stocks and boosted investor appetite for riskier assets.

Current situation

After a quite mode during the Asian hours on Monday the index rallied in the European session and was able to refresh the historical high at the start of the NY session. Buyers were able to push the price higher from the level 4865 towards 4900. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages accelerated their growth. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for a rise towards 4940 resistance area. A close below 4865 will trigger losses towards 4835.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD traded lower on Tuesday on the back of the strong dollar. The revived hopes for the Fed rate-hike supported the US currency. The euro ignored the positive Economic Sentiment report in Germany.

Current situation

The pair opened on a weaker note on Tuesday. The euro continued to lose its value. The EUR/USD pair faced a selling pressure and softened towards 1.1100. After reaching the level the price broke it and continued its decline. The moving averages are heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The resistance comes in at 1.1100, the support stands at 1.1070.

MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is going south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The pair maintained its bearish tone. We prefer to sell towards the next support level 1.1070. We do not exclude a recovery towards 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure on Tuesday due to hard-Brexit concerns.

Current situation

The pound preserved a negative sentiment on Tuesday. The GBP/USD has declined the second day in a row. The price moved towards 1.2200 through the 1.2300 level. The sterling has lost about 0.66% during the trades. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2400, the support lies at 1.2300.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative are.

Trading recommendations

The pair will continue a downtrend as soon as it breaks below 1.2300. The 1.2200 level seems the next probable bearish target.



Yen

General overview

The dollar strengthened across the board due to the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike in 2016.

Current situation

The pair remained positive on Tuesday. The prices hold onto recent gains, struggling with the 104.00 resistance level. The USD/JPY continues developing well above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance can be found at 104.30, the support comes in at 103.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

There is a potential for a roll back towards 103.00 due to the absence of strong drivers. The price will move down if the level 104.00 holds.



USD/CAD

General overview

The USD/CAD pair opened higher on Tuesday amid oil price weakening.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted on Tuesday. Having recovered after a sharp decrease on Monday, the USD/CAD pair extended its near-term upward trajectory. According to the 4 hours chart the dollar bounced from the 100-EMA which acted as a support for the price. The pair broke the 50-EMA on its way upwards and moved away from the moving averages in the same chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support stands at 1.3200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The bullish views are still popular on the market. The USD/CAD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 1.3300. A daily closing below the current support will give sellers a chance to move the price lower towards 1.3100.



XAUUSD

General overview

The renewed risk aversion sentiment supported the dollar and weighed on gold prices.

Current situation

The bearish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. Gold prices got under selling pressure after a short-lived recovery in the Asian session. The yellow metal moved from the daily high at 1265 towards the level 1250. The moving averages kept moving lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The pair XAU/USD looks bearish. We expect a breakout of 1250 and a move lower towards 1240.



Brent

General overview

Brent futures softened on Tuesday hit by OPEC deal concerns.

Current situation

The price gave up its recent gains and declined on Tuesday. Oil prices got under selling pressure and moved lower towards 52.50 where the downward pressure weakened. Brent remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moderately bullish. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained in the positive area. RSI consolidated within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A move below 52.50 will send Bren prices towards 51.50. A move higher will open the way towards 54.50.



DAX

DAX traded mixed on Tuesday. Investors expect new clues over the Fed rate hike and OPEC deal to cut production.

Current situation

DAX gapped downwards on Tuesday, but failed to move lower. The price pierced the level 10600, turned around and grew above the level. DAX extended its gains up to 10700 where the bullish spike faded and prices slightly moved back. The 200-EMA is neutral in the 4 hours chart, while the 50 and 100 EMAs are moving lower. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. The RSI traded within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

In the scenario where buyers keep control the price is expected to rise towards 10700. Alternatively, a break below 10600 will lead the price towards 10500.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday as oil prices decline weighed on energy stocks.

Current situation

The index retreated from the recent high ahead of the US opening. S&P500 suffered a short lived downward movement towards 2150. Prices bounced from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. S&P500 is between 50 and 200 EMAs now. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

After breaking through 2150 support, the index will most likely move down to around the 2140 mark.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD traded lower on the back of the renewed speculation that the Fed will hike the rate this year. The euro weakened despite positive ZEW Surveys.

Current situation

The euro remained vulnerable on Wednesday. The single European currency extended its losses below 1.1070 and approached the lowest level since July 27. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline, currently around the 1.1150 region. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1070, the support stands at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator held near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is oversold short term. The pair approached the critical 1.1000 figure during the European trades. If the price breaks the level 1.1000 it may extend its losses towards 1.0960. In case of recovery, we will see the EUR/USD pair growing towards the 1.1100-1.1120 region.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD was able to strengthen when Theresa May’s (the UK PM) allowed the Parliament to vote on her plans to Brexit.

Current situation

After a short-lived recovery during the Asian session the pound returned to a sell-off being unable to reclaim 1.2300. The level 1.2300 rejected the price downwards. The GBP/USD broke 1.2200 and moved lower towards 1.2100. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will sell the GBP/USD until it stays below 1.2470. A daily close above this level will indicate that the current bearish phase is over.



Yen

General overview

Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed on Wednesday that the regulator was ready to ease its policy if necessary.

Current situation

After a recovery during the Asian hours the USD/JPY stabilized around 103.50 on Wednesday. The physiological 104.00 level turned out to be a tough nut to crack. There have been two attempts to break it and both of them failed. The pair remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages slowed down their growth, staying around the 102.50 region. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Bulls still plan to retake the 104.00 level. A clear break above the level will send the USD/JPY pair towards the September high at 104.30. Alternatively, a move below 103.50 shall weaken buyers’ positions. The pair will decline towards the mark 102.80.



AUD/USD

General overview

The commodity currencies strengthened following oil prices growth.

Current situation

After testing the lowest low since September 20 the pair had a sharp recovery in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Aussie was able to reverse the majority of its losses recorded on Tuesday. However, the bullish spike was short-lived, the AUD/USD pair remained under pressure. The price faced a downward pressure at the beginning of the New York session. According to the 4 hours chart the moving averages stopped the upward momentum. The moving averages narrowed maintaining their bearish slope. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support stands at 0.7540.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The bearish trend remained intact. We believe the price will return to 0.7540 first. The next level to focus on is 0.7500.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices slightly strengthened on Wednesday supported by US rate hike expectations and FOMC minutes.

Current situation

The 4 hours chart for the pair presents a moderate bearish potential. The pair failed to regain the resistance level 1260 and declined towards the psychological level 1250. Gold futures moved lower amid broad based dollar strength. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs advanced south in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator remained near the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The level 1250 remained the initial barrier and first trigger to move lower. If the pair manages to make a breakout the next target for this pair is the support level of 1240. In the event that the buyers manage to force above 1260 the XAU/USD may grow towards 1270.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on Wednesday ahead of the Fed minutes and the weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles by the API.

Current situation

Brent futures lost ground on Wednesday. Buyers were unable to move the price higher. Oil prices got under selling pressure and the prices dropped towards 51.50 at the NY open. Brent price is struggling with the 50-EMA which blocks its further downward movement. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept moving higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI is going downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

The downward views are getting more popular. We expect the price to break 51.50 and to extend its losses towards 50.50.



DAX

General overview

The sentiment on the European markets worsened on Wednesday following Ericsson shares decline. Investors were cautious ahead of the Fed minutes publications.

Current situation

DAX gapped higher at the beginning of the day. The price jumped from 10550 to the 10600 level where the price turned around and moved lower. DAX was struggling with the 10500 level during the NY session. The price broke the 200 EMA and touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are moving lower. The 50-EMA direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A break below 10500 will weaken buyers’ positions and will allow sellers to test 10400. If the level holds the price will recover towards 10600.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened lower ahead of the Fed minutes publications.

Current situation

The index recovered in the Asian session on Wednesday However, its recovery was limited by the 2140 resistance. Prices bounced off the level and moved lower. NASDAQ traded around 2130 before the Fed meeting. The index is below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their moderately bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The price needs to break 2130 to move south. Should NASDAQ recover ground and advance beyond 2140 the index may extend its gains towards 2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened when the latest FOMC minutes reaffirmed investors’ expectations of a Fed rate-hike in the current year.

Current situation

The EUR/USD opened on a stronger note on Thursday. The price retreated from the current low at 1.1000 and recovered to 1.1040 in the Asian session. The U.S. currency returned control of the flows in early Europe trade. The euro gave up its recent gains and declined. The EUR/USD moved downwards and pierced the level 1.1000. The price failed to move lower, the EUR/USD bounced from the three-month low mark at 1.0990 and reversed some of its losses post-European open. The moving averages maintained their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1050, the support stands at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The MACD shows a convergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

If the price makes another attempt and this time consolidates below the 1.1000 support area then we could see a decline towards 1.0950. The next sellers' target is the level 1.0900. The EUR/USD may extend its recovery towards 1.1100.



Pound

General overview

The dollar strengthened after the Fed’s minutes publication. The pound kept losses due to weaker Europeans stocks and oil prices.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate. The cable remained under selling pressure on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair spent the day around the recent low – 1.2100. The price is developing below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

If the selling pressure persists the GBP/USD will remain focused on a potential test of 1.2100. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.2000 could be observed further.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against the US dollar on the back of the weaker-than-expected Chinese data.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in a short-term ascending channel. The price retreated from the new weekly high and returned below 104.00. The downward pressure faded at 103.50 where the price turned around and was able to reverse some of its losses. The USD/JPY returned to 104.00 trying to regain the level. The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading south.

Trading recommendations

If the resistance around 104.00 holds, then a move down to 103.00 is possible.



NZD/USD

General overview

The kiwi remained weak due to Chinese trade data and ongoing weakness in oil prices.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate in the market. The NZD/USD pair extended its weakness on Thursday. The downward momentum faded a few pips below 0.7050. The price grew and reversed early losses. The overall picture is bearish and we believe that the current rebound does not have any legs. The moving averages extended their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7120, the support stands at 0.7050.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards from the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The level 0.7050 seems the next probable bearish target. A break below the level will suggest further weakness towards 0.6980.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices grew on Thursday on the back of the weaker-than-expected Chinese trading data. Chinese trade balance data renewed worries of an economic slowdown in the country.

Current situation

The XAU/USD pair remains neutral in the short term. The price continued its rebound from the strong psychological level 1250 dollar per ounce. Gold prices erased the early losses, however, the upward impetus faded at 1260 in the lack of market mover. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price is in a flat. A break above or below the current levels will determine further direction of the yellow metal. A daily close above 1260 will open the way towards 1270-1275. A move lower shall extend losses towards 1240.



Brent

General overview

Brent prices decreased after the OPEC report that output levels reached eight-year high. According to AIP US crude inventories rose in the week to October 7.

Current situation

Brent prices extended the downside in the Asian session on Thursday. However, the 51.50 support limited its further weakness, the price bounced off the level and reverted some of its early losses at the beginning of the European session. Brent futures remained in the upward middle-term channel, close to its lower limit. Despite the three-day decrease the price is still in the green figures. The 50-EMA failed to stop the further weakness of Brent prices, the price mobbed lower. The moving averages keep heading higher with the 50 and 100 EMAs crossing the 200-EMA. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices may extend the recovery towards 52.50. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as Brent drops below the support level 51.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened lower on U.S. rate hike talk. Weak Chinese Trade balance report renewed concerns over the world strength of the economy.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the beginning of the day, the price dropped from 10530 to the mark 10430. The index continued to move lower during the day. DAX set a weekly low at 10348. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards and moved away from them. The moving averages present a slightly bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10400, the support is at 10300.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The market switched to bearish tone. We believe that the next level to focus on is 10300.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Thursday. Investors digested the weak Chinese data and prepared for the US releases and Crude Oil Stocks report.

Current situation

S&P500 had a negative day on Thursday. The price made a good break lower. Sellers dragged the price from the level 2130 towards the mark 2110 (the daily low). The price broke the level 2120 on its way down. The downward momentum faded at 2110, the price grew back to 2120, reversing some of its losses. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower, around the 2150 region. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 2120, the support is at 2107.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is within the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the price closes below 2120 the index can extend its losses towards 2107. If the level 2120 holds the prices may recover back towards 2130.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The US dollar strengthened due to revived hopes of a rate hike by the Fed in 2016. Investors waited for Janet Yellen's speech expecting fresh hints on the Fed's rate hike outlook.

Current situation

The EUR/USD tested the level 1.1000 again. The mark 1.0984 rejected its first attempt to break the level. The price bounced off the level, however, the recovery was short-lived and stopped around 1.1050 where the euro got under selling pressure. Sellers pushed the price lower and broke the 1.1000 level in the North American session. The price bounced downwards from the 100-EMA and moved below the 50-EMA in 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the price. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which confirms strength of sellers. RSI remained in the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The overall sentiment remains negative. A break below 1.1000 would open the way to 1.0950. To trigger recovery we need a daily closing above 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on the back of the better-than-expected Housing Price Balance in the UK.

Current situation

The pound failed to break the 1.2100 level, the price reversed and strengthened to 1.2300. However, the recovery was short-lived and the price eased to 1.2200 where the GBP/USD spent the whole day. According to the 1 hour chart the 100-EMA did not let the price to go higher, the moving average rejected the pound downwards. The price is around the 50-EMA which provides a solid resistance for the sterling. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The overall structure remains bearish. However, we do not exclude another leg up towards the 1.2400 resistance region. The nearest sellers' target remains the support level 1.2100.



Yen

General overview

The dollar strengthened following the upbeat Chinese CPI report. The dollar got stronger when the last Fed’s minutes reaffirmed investors’ expectations about the Fed rate-hike.

Current situation

The USD/JPY preserved its positive tone on Friday. The pair was able to extend its buying momentum above 104.00. The price added about 0.64% during the trades of the day. The prices decreased by the end of the trades. The USD/JPY pair bounced from the 100-EMA upwards in the 1 hour chart. The price broke through the 50-EMA and moved away from the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 105.00, the support comes in at 104.00.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The pair can establish a fresh 11-week high if the upward momentum persists. The price is trending towards the 105.00 resistance area. If the bearish pressure prevails the USD/JPY will return below 104.00.



USD/CAD

General overview

The US dollar weakened against its Canadian rival. However, its losses will be limited, the US dollar is supported across the board by the market’s hopes of the Fed rate-hike this year.

Current situation

The USD/CAD pair opened on a weaker note on Friday. The pair erased all its recent recovery gains and moved lower during the day. The price moved below 1.3250 and approached the 1.3150 level at the beginning of the New York session. Sellers managed to break the level during the North American hours. The pair is struggling with the 200-EMA which stopped its downward movement. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3150, the support stands at 1.3050.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates that sellers are getting stronger. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A close below 1.3150 will trigger losses towards 1.3120 where the 200-EMA lies. A cut through here will aim the USD/CAD at the 1.3050 level.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices weakened against the US dollar due to the strong US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index.

Current situation

Gold prices traded sideways during the European session amid lack of market movers on Friday. The yellow metal went back and forth in a range. A recovery towards the level 1260 switched to a decline back to 1250 dollar per ounce. The price was unable to break the 100-EMA in 1 hour chart. The line rejected the XAU/USD pair downwards. Gold futures moved below 50-EMA which provides a current resistance for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline in the same chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator consolidated near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1260 dollar per ounce would open the way to 1270. Alternatively, a move below the immediate support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend towards 1240 dollar per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew on Friday amid OPEC's plans to cut output. Meanwhile, some investors are skeptical that the OPEC deal will be efficient enough to stabilize prices.

Current situation

Oil prices extended their recovery mode on Friday. Brent continued rallying; buyers led the price from the mark 50.86 towards the resistance at 52.50 dollars per barrel where the upward momentum stalled. The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator remained neutral.

Trading recommendations

The bullish momentum run out of steam. The bearish views are getting more popular. The price is expected to decline towards 51.50. After breaking the level Brent quotes may decrease further towards 50.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened higher on Friday following the China’s CPI positive report.

Current situation

The index had a positive day on Friday. DAX continued its Thursday's recovery and extended its gains during the European hours. Buyers drove the price to 10600 where DAX seems to have found a strong resistance. After touching the level the price rolled back. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are mixed with 50 and 200 EMAs going lower and the 100-EMA moving north. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Bullish sentiments are popular now. Once we break above the 10600 level, we think that the 10700 level will be next.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street traded higher on Friday after positive bank earning reports and on the back of the positive US statistics.

Current situation

The index extended its recovery on the European trade on Friday. Traders pushed the price higher and could escalate up to 4845 where the 50-EMA stopped the upward momentum. The price pierced the line and roll back below the 200-EMA ahead of the US opening. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

NASDAQ had a negative day on Friday. If the negative tone prevails the index will test 4800 and may drop to 4770.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman