"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:15 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.11.2016

Euro

General overview

All eyes were on Mario Draghi’s speech on Monday. Investors expected to hear from the regulator new guidelines regarding the further economy course and the potential consequences following the Brexit vote.

Current situation

Bears seem to have returned to the game. Last week recovery lost its strengthened around 1.0700. The pair retreated from its recent highs and returned below 1.0650 post-Europe open. Sellers drove the price towards the level 1.0600 during the European hours. The price broke the 200-EMA downwards and met a barrier around the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA pointed lower while the 100-EMA turned neutral and the 50-EMA turned higher. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI turned south.

Trading recommendations

A return below 1.0650 put on hold bulls’ plans. The bearish momentum is getting strength now. A bearish continuation through 1.0600 should lead to a continued slide towards 1.0550 as the first probable target.

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Pound

General overview

The pound edged lower on Monday amid EUR/GBP cross strength.

Current situation

The pound bounced off the upper limit of its sideway channel on Monday. The price sharply fell towards 1.2400 in late Europe trades. After testing the level 1.2400 the price slowed down struggling with the level ahead of the NY opening. The sterling broke the 50-EMA and was stopped by the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved towards the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

If the bearish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 1.2400 and move towards 1.2300.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar weakened against the yen as the uncertainty regarding the future events (OPEC meeting, Non-farm Payrolls and referendum in Italy) made investors close their deals.

Current situation

The price remained in an upward channel on Monday. The USD/JPY stayed around its lower limit, making timid steps to recover during the Asian session. The pair accelerated its growth during the European hours. The pair recovered to 113.00 ahead of the NA session. According to the 1 hour chart the price broke the 100-EMA upwards in the mid-Europe session. The price approached and tested the 50-EMA in the late Europe session. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA turned neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.

MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI moved higher.

Trading recommendations

We favor a return to the growth this week. The first bulls' target is the level 113.00. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 114.00 could be observed further.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar fell against its American counterpart amid oil prices drop and dollar’s return in the driver’s seat.

Current situation

After touching the level 0.7100 the kiwi stopped its growth. Buyers lost their legs around the level and gave place to sellers. Bears drove the pair to 0.7050 and touched the level ahead of the NA session. The NZD/USD hovered about the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA was neutral and presented a solid support for the price. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA and both lines kept heading lower. The resistance is at 0.7100, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI bounced off the overbought area and headed towards the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

A daily close below 0.7050 will ease the current upward momentum. A loss of 0.7050 may trigger further weakness towards 0.7000.

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XAU/USD

General overview

The risk on sentiment weighed on gold prices marking them move away from the recent highs. Moreover market participants preferred to stay out of deals ahead of the upcoming risks events later in the week.

Current situation

The price failed to advance beyond 1200 dollars per ounce and retreated almost immediately after testing the level. Sellers managed to lead the price from 1200 to 1190 which was broken in the mid-Europe session. Having broken the level the yellow metal continued advancing south. After breaking the 50-EMA the price met a barrier around the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 100-EMA rejected the precious metal downwards. The price spent the second part of the day between the 100 and 50 EMAs. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the downside while the RSI stayed neutral/negative.

Trading recommendations

Inability to break above 1200 points to buyers’ weakness. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1190. A move lower may generate negative signals and risk further easing towards 1170 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Despite the yesterday’s growth Brent futures remained in the red as markets still doubt over OPEC output deal.

Current situation

Oil prices gapped lower at the open on Monday. The price jumped from 46.85 to 46.00. After touching the level 46.00 the benchmark bounced upwards and filled the gap in the mid-Europe session. Brent tested and broke the level 47.50 ahead of the NY session opening. The price broke the bullish 200-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. After crossing the 100-EMA the 50-EMA extended its decline while the 100-EMA is changing its upward direction to the downward one. The resistance lies at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI bounced from the oversold levels and advanced higher.

Trading recommendations

A failure to break below 46.50 may lead to a renewed buying interest. A fresh bullish pressure may push the price to the mark 48.00. A consolidation above the mark will neutralize the current downward momentum sending the market towards 48.50.

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DAX

Current situation

DAX gapped lower at the open on Monday. The price jumped from 10700 to 10680 and continued advancing south after the gap. The benchmark extended its losses towards 10600 in the European session. After snapping the level the price bounced and remained above the level ahead of the NY opening. The price bounced off the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 10600, the support stands at 10500.

MACD entered the negative area. RSI advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

A sharp breakout below 10600 could spark a further incline towards 10500 in the coming days.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

NASDAQ gapped lower at the open on Monday. After the gap the index stayed in a flat, trading range-bound-to lower. Sellers tried to leave a flat post-Europe open but failed and the price returned in the range. NASADQ hovered above the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slopes while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is at 4865, the support comes in at 4830.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI traded to the downside.

Trading recommendations

We believe the benchmark will maintain its bearish tone in the near-term. A clear break below 4830 would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed. After the break sellers will aim at 4800.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened against the euro on the back of the weak Eurozone data. Business Climate, Economic Sentiment and Services Sentiment in Eurozone came out worse-than-expected weighing on the single currency.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair spent Tuesday in a quite consolidation. The recent rally was stopped around psychological barrier 1.0700 which rejected prices downwards. Having faced fresh selling pressure the euro sharply dropped to the 1.0550 support region where the pair showed a minor recovery and was able to reverse some losses. The recovery action lost strength around 1.0600 where the pair spent the rest of the European session. Sellers moved prices lower in the NY session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages. The price grew and snapped the 50 and 200-EMAs in the 1 hour chart in yearly trades. After testing the level the pair bounced downwards and broke the 100-EMA. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram returns into the negative territory that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI remained within neutral readings.

Trading recommendations

Technical indicators kept giving bearish signals. We believe that bears may remain in the driver's seat in the short-term and may drive pair lower towards 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on Tuesday following the upbeat Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit releases.

Current situation

The pound continued its sideways trades on Tuesday. The pair began the day around 1.2400 and spiked ahead of the European trades. The rally was limited by the upper band of the range around 1.2500 which stopped bulls' attack. The price broke the 50 and 100-EMAs in and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs remained neutral. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We assume that the pound will remain in the latest range in the short-term. A move below or above the range is likely to show its further continuation. Below 1.2400, GBP/USD will likely target 1.2300 support. Conversely, the pair needs the 1.2500 resistance retest before the price can rally towards 1.2600.

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Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY pair recovered on Monday due to disappointing Overall Household Spending report in Japan.

Current situation

Bulls seemed to have returned in the game on Tuesday. The pair bounced off the lower limit of the ascending channel and extended its near-term upward trajectory. Having bounced off 112.00 the price trended to 113.00 and tested the level ahead of the NY session. After breaking the level the dollar accelerated its growth and headed towards 114.00. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The pair grew and broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI traded to the upside.

Trading recommendations

If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 113.00. A consolidation above the level will favor an advance up to the 114.00 region.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The greenback kept the upbeat tone unchanged vs. its Canadian peer on Tuesday. The dollar was supported by the US GDP. Moreover, all commodity currencies were under pressure due to oil prices decline.

Current situation

The bullish sentiment in USD remained intact yesterday. The price still trades in the near term upward channel. The USD/CAD bounced off the lower boundary of the channel around 1.3400 and advanced towards 1.3470 during the European hours. The pair struggled hard with the level to extend its gains ahead of the New York session. The price pushed away from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair grew and snapped the 50 and 100 Day EMAs in the same chart. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is at 1.3470, the support comes in at 1.3400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

Bulls kept focusing at the 1.3470 barrier on Tuesday. A daily close above the level may risk 1.3540. Alternatively, a failed test of the level shall send this market back to the 1.3400 handle.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices softened on Tuesday amid strong expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month. Besides, a stronger dollar and the upbeat strength of the US economy keep weighing on the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold prices have been under pressure since Monday. The price stayed in a short-term descending channel and bounced off its upper limit on yesterday's trades. Sellers pushed prices below 1190 and drove them towards 1180 during the day. The price stayed below the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The pair tested the 100-EMA and bounced downwards breaking the 50-EMA on its way down. All moving averages kept pointing lower. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI returned to the overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

Gold approached the 1180 support area. If it starts to challenge this region it is likely to break it. In this scenario sellers will drag prices towards 1170.

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Brent

General overview

The uncertainty over OPEC decision regarding the output freeze weighed on oil prices yesterday.

Current situation

The recent recovery lost momentum around 48.50. The level rejected oil prices downwards right after the level test. Brent continued to grind lower yesterday. The benchmark broke the 47.50 handle in the mid-Europe session and continued weakening afterwards. The price tested the 46.50 support ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price faced recovery rejection around the 200-EMA. The benchmark turned lower right after the moving average test. Oil prices broke the 50 and 100 EMAs on their way down. The 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved towards the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A close below 46.50 will trigger additional losses towards 45.50. We do not exclude a brief consolidative phase and a short-lived recovery towards 47.00.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Tuesday amid the uncertainty from OPEC and ahead of the referendum in Italy.

Current situation

After recent sideways trades the DAX index moved lower in the beginning of the week. The tone was negative in the market on Tuesday. The index extended its losses in the yearly trades. After posting the lowest point at 10533 the price rolled back and was able to recover the minor pat of its losses. The benchmark stayed around 10600 flirting with the level till the end of the day. The price stayed in the 100 and 200 EMAs region on yesterday’s trades. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 10600, the support stands at 10500.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI remained within neutral territory, but moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Once we consolidate below the 10600 level, we think that the 10500 handle will be next. We do not rule out a recovery towards 10650.

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SP500

General overview

Wall Street opened neutral as post-election rally appeared to have run out of steam. Investors waited for fresh market movers to set up their direction.

Current situation

The market remained neutral on yesterday's trades. The price hovered above the 2200 handle bouncing from the level on every attempt to the downside. The index continued developing well above the moving averages which extended their growth. The benchmark stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart which provided it a solid support. The resistance is at 2220, the support comes in at 2200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

The nearest bulls' target remains the resistance level 2220. At the same time a break below 2200 would open the way to 2180

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:04 pm

ValdisFFS wrote:"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened against the euro on the back of the weak Eurozone data. Business Climate, Economic Sentiment and Services Sentiment in Eurozone came out worse-than-expected weighing on the single currency.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair spent Tuesday in a quite consolidation. The recent rally was stopped around psychological barrier 1.0700 which rejected prices downwards. Having faced fresh selling pressure the euro sharply dropped to the 1.0550 support region where the pair showed a minor recovery and was able to reverse some losses. The recovery action lost strength around 1.0600 where the pair spent the rest of the European session. Sellers moved prices lower in the NY session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages. The price grew and snapped the 50 and 200-EMAs in the 1 hour chart in yearly trades. After testing the level the pair bounced downwards and broke the 100-EMA. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram returns into the negative territory that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI remained within neutral readings.

Trading recommendations

Technical indicators kept giving bearish signals. We believe that bears may remain in the driver's seat in the short-term and may drive pair lower towards 1.0500.

Image

Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on Tuesday following the upbeat Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit releases.

Current situation

The pound continued its sideways trades on Tuesday. The pair began the day around 1.2400 and spiked ahead of the European trades. The rally was limited by the upper band of the range around 1.2500 which stopped bulls' attack. The price broke the 50 and 100-EMAs in and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs remained neutral. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We assume that the pound will remain in the latest range in the short-term. A move below or above the range is likely to show its further continuation. Below 1.2400, GBP/USD will likely target 1.2300 support. Conversely, the pair needs the 1.2500 resistance retest before the price can rally towards 1.2600.

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Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY pair recovered on Monday due to disappointing Overall Household Spending report in Japan.

Current situation

Bulls seemed to have returned in the game on Tuesday. The pair bounced off the lower limit of the ascending channel and extended its near-term upward trajectory. Having bounced off 112.00 the price trended to 113.00 and tested the level ahead of the NY session. After breaking the level the dollar accelerated its growth and headed towards 114.00. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The pair grew and broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI traded to the upside.

Trading recommendations

If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 113.00. A consolidation above the level will favor an advance up to the 114.00 region.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The greenback kept the upbeat tone unchanged vs. its Canadian peer on Tuesday. The dollar was supported by the US GDP. Moreover, all commodity currencies were under pressure due to oil prices decline.

Current situation

The bullish sentiment in USD remained intact yesterday. The price still trades in the near term upward channel. The USD/CAD bounced off the lower boundary of the channel around 1.3400 and advanced towards 1.3470 during the European hours. The pair struggled hard with the level to extend its gains ahead of the New York session. The price pushed away from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair grew and snapped the 50 and 100 Day EMAs in the same chart. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is at 1.3470, the support comes in at 1.3400.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

Bulls kept focusing at the 1.3470 barrier on Tuesday. A daily close above the level may risk 1.3540. Alternatively, a failed test of the level shall send this market back to the 1.3400 handle.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices softened on Tuesday amid strong expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month. Besides, a stronger dollar and the upbeat strength of the US economy keep weighing on the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold prices have been under pressure since Monday. The price stayed in a short-term descending channel and bounced off its upper limit on yesterday's trades. Sellers pushed prices below 1190 and drove them towards 1180 during the day. The price stayed below the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The pair tested the 100-EMA and bounced downwards breaking the 50-EMA on its way down. All moving averages kept pointing lower. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI returned to the overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

Gold approached the 1180 support area. If it starts to challenge this region it is likely to break it. In this scenario sellers will drag prices towards 1170.

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Brent

General overview

The uncertainty over OPEC decision regarding the output freeze weighed on oil prices yesterday.

Current situation

The recent recovery lost momentum around 48.50. The level rejected oil prices downwards right after the level test. Brent continued to grind lower yesterday. The benchmark broke the 47.50 handle in the mid-Europe session and continued weakening afterwards. The price tested the 46.50 support ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price faced recovery rejection around the 200-EMA. The benchmark turned lower right after the moving average test. Oil prices broke the 50 and 100 EMAs on their way down. The 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved towards the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A close below 46.50 will trigger additional losses towards 45.50. We do not exclude a brief consolidative phase and a short-lived recovery towards 47.00.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Tuesday amid the uncertainty from OPEC and ahead of the referendum in Italy.

Current situation

After recent sideways trades the DAX index moved lower in the beginning of the week. The tone was negative in the market on Tuesday. The index extended its losses in the yearly trades. After posting the lowest point at 10533 the price rolled back and was able to recover the minor pat of its losses. The benchmark stayed around 10600 flirting with the level till the end of the day. The price stayed in the 100 and 200 EMAs region on yesterday’s trades. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 10600, the support stands at 10500.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI remained within neutral territory, but moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Once we consolidate below the 10600 level, we think that the 10500 handle will be next. We do not rule out a recovery towards 10650.

Image

SP500

General overview

Wall Street opened neutral as post-election rally appeared to have run out of steam. Investors waited for fresh market movers to set up their direction.

Current situation

The market remained neutral on yesterday's trades. The price hovered above the 2200 handle bouncing from the level on every attempt to the downside. The index continued developing well above the moving averages which extended their growth. The benchmark stayed around the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart which provided it a solid support. The resistance is at 2220, the support comes in at 2200.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI headed downwards which confirms the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

The nearest bulls' target remains the resistance level 2220. At the same time a break below 2200 would open the way to 2180

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:29 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened on Wednesday amid upbeat Eurozone data. Retails Sales in Germany showed growth, Unemployment Rate coincided with traders’ expectations. However, a strong US unemployment data together with Personal Income report erased all its gains.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair traded around recent highs on Wednesday. Bulls made an attempt to reclaim the level 1.0650 in the yearly trades but failed as the level was well defended by sellers. The price pushed away from the level and dropped below 1.0600. The pair broke the 50-EMA and hovered about it during the European hours in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI trended downwards.

Trading recommendations

A break of 1.0650 may trigger the next leg of upward move for the pair, buyers may lead prices to 1.0700. If the level holds sellers may push prices towards 1.0550.

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Pound

General overview

The empty UK calendar turned investors’ focus to the US data and OPEC meeting results. The US Employment data supported the dollar and weighed on the pound.

Current situation

Traders kept the price in a flat on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair comfortably traded around 1.2500, being unable to set short-term direction during the first part of the day. Sellers pushed the price lower in the mid-Europe session. The pound sharply dropped to the lower limit of the range. The GBP/USD stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages were neutral. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.

Technical indicators MACD and RSI remained flat.

Trading recommendations

Inability to break 1.2500 put bulls' plans on hold. The price may bounce of the level and reach 1.2400 in the coming sessions.

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Yen

General overview

The yen weakened against the dollar amid weaker-than-expected Industrial Production release. Moreover, the upbeat US statistics supported the greenback.

Current situation

The dollar was stronger on Wednesday, trading near local high against the yen. After recovering from 112.00 the pair faced a solid barrier at 113.00 and struggled hard to break it during the European session. Bulls broke the level ahead of the NY opening and trended towards 114.00. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart and stayed above them during the day. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs were pointing higher. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

A failure to break above 113.00 risks a slide to 112.00. A move below 112.00 may ease the current buying pressure, opening the way to further losses towards 111.00 and 110.00. A consolidation above 113.00 will risk the 114.00 resistance.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar following weak Building Permits release.

Current situation

The pair gave up recent highs and moved away from 0.7500. The level seems to be well defended by sellers as the price had bounced off the level second time. The AUD/USD weakened to 0.7450 during the European hours and broke the line in the New York session. The price bounced off the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs headed south while the 50-EMA turned upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 0.7450, the support comes in at 0.7400.

The technical indicators headed south within bullish territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator lost upward strength and moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The level 0.7400 limited pair’s downward trajectory. After the level break we may see the pair extending its losses towards 0.7350. To develop an upward momentum the pair needs to overcome the 0.7500 barrier. If buyers break the level we may see the Aussie growing to 0.7550.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold weakened on the back of the upbeat US data and due to expectations of the rate hike action by the Fed in December.

Current situation

Gold prices remained confined within a trading range around 1190 in the European session. An attempt to take out the level failed. After refreshing a daily high at 1193 the price moved below the level where it spent the rest of the day. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart in early trades. However, the yellow metal failed to extend its gains and returned below the lines post-Europe open. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

The indicators slightly changed from yesterday. MACD remained in the negative area. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Any move above the immediate resistance would increase chances of testing the 1200 level. A failed test of the 1190 barrier may cause a further extension towards 1180 and 1170.

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Brent

General overview

OPEC members agreed to cut the output for the first time since 2008.

Current situation

The tone was positive in the market on Wednesday. The price gapped higher at the open and maintained its bullish momentum during the day. Brent futures broke 47.50, 48.50, 49.50 and tested 50.50 in the mid-Europe session. Bulls lost their strength around 50.50 where the benchmark slowed down and rolled back. The price pushed away from the 50-EMA and advanced north breaking the 100 and 200 EMAs on its way. The resistance lies at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel.

Technical indicators are now giving bullish signals. MACD is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI headed north which confirms the current upward momentum.

Trading recommendations

Brent oil prices may roll back after the recent rally. The benchmark may return below 49.50 to consolidate its gains.

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DAX

General overview

Shares in European banks strengthened on Wednesday following Energy and Chemical stocks growth.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the open on Wednesday. The benchmark slightly grew after the gap, breaking above previous day’s top. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving stopped its further extension and rejected the price downwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA headed lower. The resistance exists at 10700, the support stands at 10600.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI advanced towards the overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

We do not believe the DAX index to continue with its gains in the short-term unless, of course, it breaks above 10700. We expect a break below 10600 and further extension towards 10500.

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NASDAQ

Current situation

NASDAQ had a negative day on Wednesday. The index started the day in a flat and faced fresh downward pressure during the European session. The price was struggling with the 4865handle to go lower. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the bullish 50-EMA. The 50 and 100 EMAs headed higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is at 4900, the support comes in at 4865.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

We expect the downward pressure to persist. A break below 4865 will open the way to 4830 and 4800.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

Image
ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in EU showed upbeat results while the same PMIs in Germany and France disappointed markets. The dollar ignored the downbeat US labor market data and maintained its upward trajectory on the back of growing oil prices.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Thursday. Having found a local bottom around 1.0600 the common European currency bounced to 1.0625. The price hovered above the 1.0600 handle during the European hours, maintaining its neutral stance. The price grew and broke the 50-EMA on its way upwards in the 4-hours chart. The pair remained below the 100 and 200-EMAs in the same chart. The 50-EMA was neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slopes. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

MACD indicator was at the centerline. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The indicators recommend short positions. If a selling pressure persists the pair risks further easing towards 1.0550.

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Pound

General overview

The pound edged higher on Thursday despite a weak Manufacturing PMI. The sterling strengthened amid a backdrop of USD weakness.

Current situation

The bullish views are getting more popular in the market. The pound extended its recovery after pushing away from 1.2400 handle. The pair broke 1.2500 in yearly trades and continued advancing upwards afterwards. Buyers climbed above the level 1.2600 ahead of the NY opening. The price bounced off the 50 and 100 EMAs and jumped upwards in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages presented moderately bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

The price is expected to roll back after yesterday’s rally. We believe the GBP/USD pair may return to 1.2500 in the coming sessions.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar grew to 9 month high against the yen on the back of the strong US data. However, the yen got a minor support from Japanese Manufacturing PMI.

Current situation

The bullish views remained intact on Thursday. The pair stayed around its recent highs during the day. The upward momentum faded around 115.00. Being well defended by bulls the level rejected prices to the 114.00 support region. The moving averages slightly changed since yesterday. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator remains within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish, for a rise towards 115.00 resistance area. After breaking the level the pair has all chances to advance further and test 116.00.

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NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar remained under pressure amid its American counterpart strength. The US dollar strengthened after strong unemployment data which increased chances of the Fed rate hike this month. Markets took a wait and see position ahead of the today's NFP release.

Current situation

After a recent rally the NZD sharply dropped to the 0.7100 region and remained neutral during the day. The NZD/USD pair traded flat being stuck in a phase of downside consolidation. An attempt to take out the level 0.7100 failed, the price had to roll back. The pair stayed between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA was neutral, the 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 50-EMA edged higher. The resistance is at 0.7100, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within neutral territory, but advanced south which confirms the current downward movement.

Trading recommendations

A move below 0.7100 will confirm the strength of sellers. The price is expected to aim at 0.7050 after the 0.7100 level break.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold prices slightly recovered after a recent decline to 10-month low. A weak dollar retracement helped the yellow metal to reverse some losses. However gold recovery was limited due to strong expectations of the Fed hike action in December.

Current situation

Daily technical studies remained bearish. Gold met a barrier around 1160 and bounced off it. The price recovered to the 1180 region where the upwards momentum lost its strength ahead of the Europe opening. Gold prices suffered a short lived downward movement and moved to 1170 in the mid-Europe trades. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages which maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator continued consolidating within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

We expect to see renewed bearish pressure. The next level to focus on is 1160.

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Brent

General overview

Traders believe that the OPEC deal will not cut oil output as the USA may draw more supplies from its storage tanks to support market's demand.

Current situation

The trend is objectively bullish now. Oil prices extended their buying momentum in yearly trades on Thursday. Prices reached 52.50 where traders took a pause after a recent rally. The benchmark was flirting with the level the whole day trying to take it out. The 50-EMA broke the 200-EMA and headed north in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The resistance lies at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI was consolidating within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect some profit-taking after the resent rally. The price may roll back to the 51.50 support region.

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DAX

General overview

DAX traded lower on Thursday as traders remained cautious ahead of the Italian referendum on Saturday. European stocks were slightly supported by growing oil prices.

Current situation

DAX remained under pressure and traded lower on Thursday. Prices broke the level 10600 and dropped to 10550 where sellers took a pause. Sellers began pushing the price lower in the North American session. The benchmark broke the 200 and 100 EMAs and headed lower in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs remained neutral while the 50-EMA turned lower. The resistance exists at 10600, the support stands at 10500.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

After a close below the support at 10500 we could see DAX extend its declines down to 10400.

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SP500

General overview

Wall Street opened higher as growing oil prices lifted shares of energy companies.

Current situation

The bearish views seem to become more popular. Inability to refresh weekly high at 2212 weighed on the benchmark. S&P500 opened lower and extended it weakness overnight on Thursday. Traders pushed prices below 2200, the benchmark moved lower but remained around 2200 during the NY session. The 50-EMA broke the 200-EMA and headed north in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The resistance is at 4900, the support comes in at 4865.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price eyes a strong support at 2200 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 2180.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro edged lower on Friday amid Germany bonds market weakness. Moreover, traders were cautious ahead of US unemployment data and Italian referendum. Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed markets with its mixed figures. The number of jobs grew while the unemployment rate fell in the country.

Current situation

The market remained positive on Friday. The euro met a barrier around 1.0700 and bounced off the level after two-day rally ahead of the European opening. The pair declined and tested 1.0650 post-Europe open and stayed at the level ahead of the NY opening. A new buying interest pushed prices towards 1.0700. The 4 hours chart showed that the price grew and tested the 100-EMA in the European session. EUR/USD bounced off the moving and surged lower ahead of the NY opening. The price was between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the New York session. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI remained within overbought readings.

Trading recommendations

We expect the pair to maintain its bearish tone. A break below 1.0600 might force the euro to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0500. Alternatively, we do not rule out a short term growth towards 1.0750.

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Pound

General overview

The pound moved higher on Friday amid better-than-expected UK’s Construction PMI. However its growth was limited by the US labor market mixed data.

Current situation

After refreshing November high at 1.2700 the pound softened to the 1.2600 support area where buyers found a solid support to take a breath. Traders made another attempt to buy sterling in the NY session. The pair bounced off the level 1.2600 and trended upwards to the recent highs. The price continued developing well above the moving averages which all pointed higher. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

If the current resistance breaks, the price may grow further that should send this market looking for the 1.28 level. A return below 1.2600 will question buyers' strength and may cause a sell-off to the 1.25 - 1.24 region.

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Yen

General overview

The dollar did not take advantage of a weaker yen and softened on Friday.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained in an upward channel. Buyers seem to be consolidating their gains, accumulating strength for a new upward impetus. The price moved away from the upper limit of the channel and headed towards 113.00 on Friday. The moving averages slightly changed from Friday. The price stayed above the moving averages which all pointed higher. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved from the overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

Once we break above the 114.00 level, we think that the 115.00 level will be next. However, inability to refresh highs may cause a sell-off towards 112.00.

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USD/CAD


General overview

The mixed U.S. unemployment data weighed on the dollar across the board giving additional upward momentum to its Canadian peer. Moreover, oil prices retracement from 16-month high helped the USD/CAD to retake 1.33 level and to extend losses.

Current situation

USD/CAD opened on a weaker note and maintained a gloomy tone on Friday. After a brief consolidation phase during the European hours traders pushed the price towards 1.3260. The pair met a barrier around the level and rolled back immediately after the test. The price broke the 200-EMA on its way downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA kept heading higher, while 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.3330, the support comes in at 1.3260.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.3260 slowed down dollar weakness. A cut through here will aim at the 1.3190 level. Conversely, if the level 1.3260 holds and reject prices the dollar may recover towards 1.3400.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Despite the dollar retracement across the board Gold remained unmoved on Friday as risk on sentiments prevailed.

Current situation

Gold prices struggled for a direction on Friday staying between the current support and resistance. The price moved back and forth between 1180 - 1170 during the day. The pair continued developing well below the moving averages. The price broke 50-EMA and stopped half way towards the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD was in the negative territory. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was in a neutral area.

Trading recommendations


We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on Friday amid profit-taking and doubts that the recent OPEC agreement will be able to rein in a global glut.

Current situation

Oil prices traded mixed on Friday. The price moved lower in the European session and found some support above 52.50 dollars per barrel. The price bounced off the level and edged higher during the NY hours. The benchmark returned to 16-month high post-US open. The price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and 100 EMAs moved higher. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If a positive mood persists oil prices will extend their upward momentum towards 55.50. At the same time a firm break below 53.50 handle would open the way to 50.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded higher on Friday despite the uncertainty over the Italian referendum. Oil prices steady growth and the U.S. dollar retracement supported stocks in the EU.

Current situation

DAX gapped lower on Friday. The price jumped from 10480 to 10470 in early Asian trades. The index extended its losses after the gap and reached 10400 post-Europe open. The benchmark tested the level 10400 and bounced off the level right after the test. The price rallied to 10500 and filled the midnight gap ahead of NY opening. The price broke the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4-hours char on its way downwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA headed lower. The resistance exists at 10600, the support stands at 10500.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator bounced off the oversold territory.

Trading recommendations


If bulls take control the DAX index is expected to rise towards 10600.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Despite the disappointed US labor data the US stocks traded higher on Friday getting firm support from oil prices strength.

Current situation

The index opened lower on Friday but was able to reverse some of its losses during the day. The price met a barrier around 4710 which rejected the benchmark upwards. The price grew and broke 4740 during the NY session. After the break NASDAQ Composite extended its gains towards 4740. The index remained below moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs remained neutral while the 50-EMA turned lower. The resistance is at 4770, the support comes in at 4740.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A further recovery towards 4770 will neutralize the current downward pressure. If a positive tone persists the benchmark will extend its recovery towards 4800

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:49 pm

07.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Positive GDP in Eurozone together with Factory Orders in Germany supported the single currency on Tuesday. After Renzi's resignation a temporary government will probably work instead in Italy. A new Italian Government is likely to be elected in February.

Current situation

The EUR/USD switched its tone to negative on Tuesday. Buyers took a pause after an impressive rally on Monday and consolidated their gains. After posting a session high at 1.0785, the pair turned lower and erased some of its recent gains. EUR/USD broke 1.0750 and headed towards 1.0700 ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested 200 EMA and bounced downwards immediately after the test. The 200 and 100 EMAs pointed lower, while 50 EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

The MACD histogram moved lower which indicates buyers’ weakening. The RSI indicator left overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0750 suggests further weakness of the pair. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 1.0700 and 1.0650.

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Pound

General overview

Despite the empty macroeconomic calendar the pound maintained its bid tone on Tuesday.

Current situation

The pound extended its bullish momentum and refreshed two-month highs on Tuesday. Having broken 1.2700 the pair was able to grow to 1.2770 where the price stayed during the day. The GBP/USD pair hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. Moving averages all pointed higher. The resistance lies at 1.2800, the support comes in at 1.2700.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. We also noted MACD divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI stayed within overvalued levels.

Trading recommendations

If the pound retains its bid tone we suppose the pair will grow to 1.2800. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.2700. In this scenario sellers will drive prices to 1.2600.

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Yen

General overview

The pair was neutral on Tuesday amid a lack of any serious releases in Japan. The USA published some minor reports: Trade Balance and Factory Orders.

Current situation

Overall structure was firmly bullish on Tuesday. The USD/JPY remained in an ascending channel, trading close to its lower limit. The dollar wasn’t able to post fresh gains versus the yen but refused to give up. The pair extended its consolidation phase under fresh highs at 114.80 and spent the day around 114.00. The price tested and bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator stayed neutral.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards the 115.00 resistance area. A failure here will send this market to 113.00 and further out to 112.00. A move below 112.00 will ease the current buying pressure.

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AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar weakened following the RBA decision to leave the rate unchanged. Moreover, the regulator pointed to a possible near-term economic slowdown in the country.

Current situation

After facing rejection near the 0.7500 mark, the pair came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reversed all of its gains recorded in the previous session. The AUD returned to 0.7450 region where it spent the European session. The price made a timid attempt to recover ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced upwards from the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, while the 50 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450.

MACD entered the positive area. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair may extend its recovery if it stays above 0.7450. Traders may push prices higher towards 0.7500. The 0.7500 resistance area appeared to be a tough nut to crack, prices have bounced a number of times from it. A new failure here will reject the AUD/USD pair to 0.7450. If buyers succeed the Australian dollar will extend gains towards 0.7550.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold was down and stayed near 10-month low as the expectations for a possible Fed interest rate hike continued to weigh on the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold prices maintained their neutral stance on Tuesday. Having bounced from 1160 the precious metal jumped to 1170. The pair stayed confined within a tight trading range between 1170-1175 dollars per ounce during the day. XAU/USD remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We would be selling the pair only if the price drops below 1170. In this scenario the potential target is at 1160 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on profit taking after a strong last week rally. Traders focused their attention on how OPEC will implement its deal to cut output.

Current situation

Oil prices retreated from yearly highs amid some profit-taking. The price moved lower and broke 54.50 dollars per barrel post-Europe open. After breaking the level the benchmark extended its losses towards 53.50 which tested ahead of the NA opening. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought levels and moved downwards.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overvalued level and headed south.

Trading recommendations

If a gloomy trend retains Brent will break 53.50 in the upcoming sessions. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 52.50 and 51.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks opened flat experiencing pressure amid oil prices decline.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the open on Tuesday. The price slightly weakened after the gap and posted the daily lowest point at 10661. DAX reversed its direction at the beginning of the European session. Prices strengthened above 10700 and set a daily high 10751. The 4 hours chart showed that the price is above the moving averages. All moving averages were neutral during the day. The resistance exists at 10800, the support stands at 10700.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 10700, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 10600 and 10650. A move higher will keep buyers’ in the driver’s seat and will extend gains towards 10750.

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NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday as energy stocks weighed on. NASDAQ got some support in early trades from technology shares growth.

Current situation

The index showed mixed trades on Tuesday. NASADAQ made slightly higher in the early trades trying to reclaim 4800. The upward impetus lost its strength around the level. Having faced a rejection here the index moved lower and returned to the opening price. The benchmark remained under pressure during the NY hours struggling hard to break 4770. The price tested 200 EMA but failed to break it in the 4 hours chart. The 200 and 50 EMAs pointed lower while the 100 EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 4800, the support comes in at 4770.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the NASDAQ index will turn lower. As the most probable scenario, we consider a break below 4770 and bearishness extension towards 4740 and 4710.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:56 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Markets stayed unmoved yesterday anticipating European Central Bank’s policy meeting.

Current situation

The euro opened green against the dollar on Wednesday. However, the single currency was not able to reverse all its losses it had suffered the other day. The trades were low volatile during the European session amid lack of market movers. The EUR/USD pair spent the first part of the day above 1.0700. According to the 4 hours chart the price stayed below the 200-EMA. The 200 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower, while the 50 EMA moved higher and touched the 100-EMA. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

MACD remained within the positive territory. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.0750 seems the next probable bullish target. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.0800 level.

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Pound

General overview

The pound weakened following the downbeat data: Manufacturing and Industrial production reports came in worse-than-expected.

Current situation

The pound extended its downward correction on Wednesday. After a brief consolidation around 1.2670 the sterling dropped lower and tested the 1.2600 handle ahead of the Europe open. Sellers met a barrier around the 1.26 region where they took a pause gaining strength to break lower. The price fell and tested the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2500.

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Yen

General overview

The lack of market movers and a strong dollar kept weighing on the yen holding it around multi-month lows.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained intact on Wednesday. After hitting 10-month high at 114.82 the pair had been showing non-volatile trades trying to stabilize above the 114.00 handle. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50 EMA upwards. All moving maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

MACD histogram decreased, but remained in the positive territory. RSI indicator was neutral.

Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 115.00. Alternatively, we will place sell orders if the USDJPY does a breakout at the level of 114.00.

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NZD/USD

General overview

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler provided no significant surprise in his speech in a parliament. Meanwhile the NZD edged lower amid dairy prices growth.

Current situation

From a technical point of view the NZD/USD pair remained neutral. After a short-lived sell-off on Tuesday the NZD tried to correct on Wednesday. The pair found a solid support around 0.7100 and bounced off the level reversing the major part of its previous losses. The kiwi recovery was stopped around 0.7140 in the mid-Europe session. The price grew and tested the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral, the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7100.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI went upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

Trading recommendations

A break above 0.7150 risks a growth towards the resistance at 0.7200. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7250 could be observed further.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold moved higher on Wednesday. Still its gains were limited by a strong dollar which was supported by expectations for a rate hike by the Fed next week.

Current situation

Gold attempted to recover on Wednesday albeit remained around 10-month low. The price recovered from 1165 and was able to break 1170 post-Europe open. However, the upward impetus stalled at 1178 where the pair spent the rest of the European session. The price grew and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMA maintained their bearish slope. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the upside. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the yellow metal further weakness. A break below 1170 will suggest further weakness towards 1160 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday still markets are full of doubts that the OPEC deal will end global oversupply.

Current situation

From a technical point of view Brent stayed in the green despite its recent weakness. Oil prices recovered some losses in the European session. The benchmark found a firm support around the 53.50 handle and bounced off the level. The price moved higher and posting the daily high at 54.18. The price turned lower ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100 EMAs pointed higher. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI headed downwards which confirmed the strength of sellers.

Trading recommendations

We would be selling Brent oil if the price drops below 53.50. After breaking the level traders may push prices to 52.50 and 51.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks traded higher on Wednesday amid mining and financial sectors growth.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the open on Wednesday. The price extended its gains after the gap. Traders pushed prices higher and broke 10900. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11000, the support stands at 10900.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A downtrend will start as soon, as the index drops below the support level 10900. DAX may fall on profit-taking. The benchmark may ease to 10800.

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SP500

General overview

Wall Street opened flat on Wednesday. Traders took wait-and-see position ahead of the ECB meeting.

Current situation

The index traded lower on Wednesday. The price rallied at the daily open. After refreshing weekly high at 2213 the price reversed its direction and dropped to 2207. The price continued moving lower during the NY session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 200 EMA was neutral, while the 100 EMA and 50 EMAs pointed higher. The resistance is at 2220, the support comes in at 2200.

MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 2200. When the price consolidates below the first target, the benchmark may go to the level 2180.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:03 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.12.2016


Euro

General overview

The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged and extended QE program till April 2017.

Current situation

The euro traded mixed on Thursday. EUR/USD extended its vertical rise and broke 1.0750 in yearly trades. The pair kept on growing after that and tested the level 1.0800 in the European session. The level did not stop buyers which pushed prices higher towards 1.0850. However, the pair unexpectedly reversed it direction ahead of the NY opening. The common European currency bounced from 1.0850 and dropped towards 1.0650 during the US hours. The price bounced off the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 200 and the 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI bounced off the overbought area and headed south.

Trading recommendations

A move below 1.0700 will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. The EUR/USD pair may decline to 1.0550.

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Pound

General overview

Positive Housing Price Balance for November supported the pound. Moreover, the UK currency took advantage of a weaker dollar and continued with a recovery.

Current situation

The bullish market structure remained in place yesterday. The pound returned to a growth and reversed some of its losses which it had suffered early in the week. GBP/USD pushed away from 1.2600 in Asian session and tested the level 1.2700 at the Europe opening continuing its upward trajectory afterwards. The level 1.2700 appeared to be a firm barrier to break. Prices bounced off the level and moved south erasing all daily gains. From a technical point of view the pound bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved downside.

Trading recommendations

After breaking 1.2700 the level 1.2800 will come back to the radar. However, inability to climb higher will ease the upward pressure and may send this market to test 1.26 and 1.2550.

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Yen

General overview

The yen weakened versus the US dollar amid a negative GDP in the country. Buying pressure around the dollar after the ECB left unchanged its monetary policy sent the pair upwards.

Current situation

The USD/JPY traded mixed on Thursday. Sellers pushed the price lower and tested the level 113.00 in the Asian session. After touching 113.00 prices rolled back and spent the European session hovering above the level. A fresh buying interest drove prices upwards in the North American session. The dollar broke 114.00б but failed to extend its gains to 115.00. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the resistance level 114.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 115.00 mark.

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USD/CAD

General overview

The Canadian dollar ignored positive New Housing Price Index and Building Permits released and edged lower on the back of a growing US dollar.

Current situation

The USD/CAD continued to advance south on Thursday. After breaking the level 1.3260 the US dollar extended its losses towards 1.3190. The price stopped a few pips above the level and started a consolidation phase. The price continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200 EMA downwards. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and 100 EMAs pointed lower. The resistance is at 1.3260, the support comes in at 1.3190.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

The market may become bullish if the USD/CAD pair consolidates above 1.3250.

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XAU/USD

General overview

Gold moved lower after the ECB meeting on Thursday. The European regulator decision to leave its policy unchanged boosted the US dollar buying interest, thus weakening gold prices.

Current situation

Gold traded in a familiar range between 1175 and 1180 on Thursday. The price gapped higher at the open and moved higher from the lower band of the range. Buying interest faded around the level 1180 dollars per ounce which rejected prices downwards. The precious metal rolled back and stayed in the middle of the range before NY opening. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested and immediately bounced off the 50-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD traded to the downside. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We will stay neutral while the XAU/USD pair remains in the current range.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices ignored bigger-than expected drop in the US stockpiles. Prices remained stable, however, traders doubt that the recent OPEC deal will be enough to balance the market.

Current situation

After an Asian consolidation oil prices moved higher on Thursday. The price slightly grew and reversed the minor part of its losses. The benchmark approached 53.50 post-Europe open. The price stayed below the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 200 EMA headed higher, the 100-EMA was neutral while the 50 maintained its bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

A close above 53.50 may generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to multi-month peaks at 55.50. If the benchmark stays below the level it may extend its bearish pressure towards 51.50.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks hit three-month high on Thursday amid cautious ECB plans to extend its QE program.

Current situation

Market’s positive mood persisted on Thursday. DAX continued moving higher yesterday. The benchmark broke 11100 and extended its buying trajectory towards 11200 where the upward impetus faded. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. All moving averages turned higher. The resistance exists at 11200, the support stands at 11100.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

After a close above the resistance at 11100 the price may extend its growth to 11200.

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NASDAQ

General overview

As expected the ECB left its policy unchanged. The regulator's decision supported the US shares. Moreover the positive US labor market data fueled shares buying momentum.

Current situation

The index spent the day in a consolidation range hovering above 4835. Traders tried to reclaim the 4865 but failed. The price just touched the level and rolled back to the opening prices. According the 4 hours chart the price was above the moving averages. The 50 and the 200 EMAs were neutral, while the 100-EMA pointed higher and crossed the 50-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 4865, the support comes in at 4835.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

We hold the view that NASDAQ will struggle to climb north above 4865. A daily close above the level risks growth towards 4900.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:08 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.12.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar strengthened after the ECB meeting when the regulator decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged.

Current situation

The euro's weakness is back. The single European currency dropped from fresh monthly highs and erased all its previous gains. The EUR/USD pair continued moving south on Friday. Sellers broke the level 1.0600 and drove prices lower advancing towards 1.0550 in the European session. The pair broke the level during the NY hours. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 200 EMA downwards. The pair broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and continued developing well below the moving averages. The 200 and the 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50 EMA turned neutral. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0600, it may continue its downward trend in the short term. The sellers’ potential targets are 1.0550 and 1.0500.

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Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened amid positive Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance on Friday.

Current situation

The pound recovered some ground in early trades on Friday. Buyers moved prices upwards and tested the level 1.2600 in the mid-Europe session. After testing the level the upward impetus faded and the sterling rolled back below the level. The 4 hours chart showed that the GBP/USD bounced off the 50 EMA. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.

MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was neutral.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.2600 will suggest a further weakness of the GBPUSD pair. After the break sellers may lead prices to 1.2500.

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Yen

General overview

The yen weakened versus the US dollar amid the US treasury yields strengthening which increased the dollar demand.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Friday. The dollar extended its near-term upward trajectory. A fresh buying interest helped bulls to overcome 114.00. After breaking the level the pair extended its gains and headed towards 115.00. The USD/JPY broke the level in the New York session. The price bounced from the 50 EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A break above 115.00 risks a growth towards the resistance at 116.00. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 117.00 could be observed further.

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AUD/USD

General overview


The Australian dollar traded mixed amid Australian and Chinese data. Home Loans figures decreased in Australian and Chinese PMI came in better-than-expected.

Current situation

AUD/USD traded higher during the European hours on Friday. However, a short-lived rally lost its strength around 0.7500. The level appeared to be a strong barrier and rejected prices downwards. The Aussie bounced off the level 0.7500 and moved towards 0.7450. The price bounced off the 50 EMA and headed to the 200 EMA where it faced a downward rejection. The 200 and the 100 EMAs pointed lower while the 50 EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450.

MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator remained within neutral readings.

Trading recommendations


If the AUD/USD pair failed to extend its gains, bulls will retreat as well. A bounce from 0.7500 may lead to a fresh weakness towards 0.7450. A move lower will extend sellers’ gains towards 0.7350.

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XAU/USD


General overview

Gold weakened on the back of a dollar strengthening after the ECB's desicion on Thursday. The US treasury yields growth weighed on the precious metal as well.

Current situation


Gold prices remained in a descending channel. Gold traded lower and touched the lower limit of the downward channel on Friday. The level 1160 dollars per ounce appeared to be a tough nut to break. The level rejected prices three times before. The price bounced from the 50-EMA and continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1170, the support stands at 1160 dollars per ounce.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1170, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 1150 and 1140 dollars per ounce.

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Brent

General overview

Oil prices kept growing on Friday ahead of the weekend's conference of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries.

Current situation

Brent extended its bounce off a correction low at 52.79 dollars per barrel on Friday. After breaking the level 53.50 buyers extended their gains and tested 54.50. Brent oil prices erased almost all its losses which it had suffered on Monday. The price was above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA remained neutral while the 50 and the 100 EMAs pointed higher. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

The MACD histogram grew which confirmed buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.

Trading recommendations

A break above 54.50 will open the way towards 55.50. A failure here will send markets to 52.50 dollars per barrel.

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DAX

General overview

European stocks edged higher getting support from the health care sector on Friday. The ECB's latest policy decision supported European shares as well.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the daily open. However the downward impetus did not have legs, the price changed its direction and continued to advance north. Traders broke 11200 and refreshed multi-month highs at 11237. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued hovered above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs turned higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11300, the support stands at 11200.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 11300 resistance area.

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S&P500

General overview

Wall Street traded higher amid Healthcare and Technology shares growth.

Current situation

The index maintained its strong bid tone and set new all-time highs on Friday. The price pushed away from 2240 and climbed to 2260 in the NA session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If buyers keep control the S&P500 will break 2260. A daily close above the level will risk 2280.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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