"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis01.06.2015Fundamental analysisAfter the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.
The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.
The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overviewWe pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.
The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsWe believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.
Pound (GBP)General overviewThe UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.
The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendationsThe approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.
Yen (JPY)General overviewJapan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.
The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendationsWe suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.
Franc (CHF)General overviewAfter the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.
Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendationsWe advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.