"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market was relatively quiet at the end of last week - the major pairs were traded in narrow ranges, despite the US labor market publication which traditionally caused the volatility surge. The labor market report as a whole is positive - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the Non-Farm figure was 223 thousand. It is slightly worse than the median forecast, still the report is above 200 thousand. The average earnings index disappointed traders with the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will restrain the inflation growth.

Investors continue to monitor the situation with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed a compromise to extent the financial assistance program. Meanwhile, Tsipras continued to call on the citizens to vote against the proposed measures by creditors.

The EUR/USD increased and the pair GBP/USD fell at the end of the week. The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US labor market release as a whole can be considered positive. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the lowest level since May 2008. In the private sector created more than 200 thousand. new jobs during the second quarter, indicating a strong economic growth.

The May retail sales index in the euro zone increased by 0.2%. The forecasted growth was 0.1%.

The most important euro/dollar event is new negotiations between Athens and the creditors are held on July 6, immediately after the national referendum.

The support level of 1.1050 stopped the euro decrease in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. After this level breakthrough down the way to the supports 1.0925, 1.0790 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the service sector business climate publication. This indicator is one of the leading ones. The index rose to 58.5 from 56.5. The bond market dynamics indicates the bearish sentiment predominance - the British bonds yields decrease relative to the US in Germany bonds.

The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

If traders are positive to the US dollar - we expect the demand for the dollar. However, the 2-year Treasury bonds decline after weak June average earnings indicates the expectations decrease about imminent monetary policy tightening by the Fed and this factor is negative for the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

When the market has received a signal from the European authorities that they will continue any negotiations with Greece only after the referendum, investors have focused entirely on the fundamental news.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were in the narrow ranges. Monday the pair EUR/USD opened with a gap downwards, but it had increased. However, it lost its positions by the end of the day. We have received the May euro zone sales positive data. The index rose by 0.2% that indicates the consumer spending growth and a positive factor for the economy.

The euro was declining the whole day in response to the Greece referendum results which further increases the full-scale default likelihood in the country and its exit from the euro zone. Greeks convincingly voted "no" to the EU creditors' offer and with only 38.69% of the Greeks having supported the bailout offer.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK bond yields reduction because of the oil market sales. Nevertheless the pound grew by the end of the day

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the bearish sentiment on the global equity markets. Investors closed their positions after the Greece referendum.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On Monday the trades were opened with a gap. We saw the increased volatility during the day. Greece was the main newsmaker yesterday. Athens and the creditors returned to the negotiating table and that
event has defined the euro/dollar dynamics in the short term. Now it can be concluded that the parties will reach a compromise.

The two-week downward trend encountered the resistance at the level of 1.1050. The short-term trend line testing and breakthrough was amid the low volumes and was followed by the rebound upwards. The gap (the price gap) gives an additional signal towards the prices growth. The gap as covered.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0925, 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market was opened with a gap amid the Greece national referendum results, but the gap size was smaller than in the pair EUR/USD. The UK service sector business activity release came out positive on Friday, but if we look at the quarter dynamics, there we can see a smooth slowdown. In this regard, the Bank of England forecasts about the high economic growth in the second quarter can be called into question.

The British pound has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The pair slightly corrected by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5550 and 1.5460 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of the trades was determined by the global stock markets sentiments. In case of the "Greek debt" positive decision - the stock markets will show an upward trend and the pair dollar/yen will enjoy a steady demand amid the carry trade transactions opening. Otherwise, we expect the sales waves amid the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair euro/dollar started the week with the price gap near the level of 1.0980 amid the negative Greek referendum results, concerning the anti-crisis plan. But after the US ISM service sector publication bulls managed to recover some of the losses. As a result, the tool closed the day with a decrease.

Due to the negative US statistics, the pair pound/dollar was able to fix its growth. However the pair decreased by the end of the day and closed the trades in the “red zone”.

The pair dollar/yen has finished the day with the negative sentiment. Investors escaped from the risky assets, giving preference to the "safe Japanese currency".

The Greeks refused to accept the creditors offer in the referendum, concerning conditions for obtaining new loans. Thus, the Greece exit from the European Union risk has been intensified that put pressure on the European currency. According to the voting results 61% of citizens said "no" in the referendum.

The EU leaders meeting took place on Tuesday in Brussels. The purpose of the meeting was to give an adequate assessment to the referendum results and consider next steps in the negotiations that were stopped after the referendum results. As we know the meeting ended inconclusively, as the Athens has not shown any proposals how to overcome the crisis.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany submitted the May release, concerning the industrial production. The data is expected within forecasts despite the fact that the production orders growth at the end of March and April indicates the production capacity increase, but the PMI indicator dynamics indicates the minimal growth. The data constituted 0.0%, while it was forecasted 0.1%.

Still the Greek problem solution was the main event of the day. The European leaders meeting results became known during the American session. The Athens will present their proposals on June, 8.

The price has been consolidating around 1.1050 for a long time. The price decreased to 1.0925 at the yesterday’s trades. This level could advance the sellers upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consoldating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon. After breaking 1.0925 the sellers may go to 1.0790, 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The bearish sentiments are prevailing in this instrument. According to the National Statistics Office industrial production release – the May industrial production PMI index had been showing a negative trend since April till June. The pound growth against the euro negatively affected the British exports.

We should also pay attention to the oil market sales- the Brent crude oil is trading below $ 60 / barrel. It is a negative signal for the pound as the energy sector accounts about 10% of the US GDP.

The pound has been correcting for three weeks against the US dollar. The trading volumes are gradually forming a divergence at the lower prices, indicating the sellers fading power.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.5460 it may go to the level 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The market shares dynamics will set the course of the trades within the pair USD / JPY. It is connected with the Japanese currency peculiarities which is the funding currency for the carry trade transactions. The energy and the bank sectors are among the leaders on the dip. It will put pressure on the stock market. But taking in consideration the oil market sales, we cannot expect the US dollar sharp decline. Obviously, investors will open short-term longs on the dips.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60 and 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

It is known that the EU has set Greece five-day deadline. During this period the country should give creditors new detailed offers package. It was mentioned that otherwise" the EU is ready for Greece exit.

This news triggered risk escape and investors started to look for the safe haven assets such as the yen, the dollar, Treasuries, etc. It should be noted that the dollar decreased amid FOMC minutes publication

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the oil market sales. During the day the Brent crude oil fell to the level of 55.45 that is the lowest level over the last three months. However, the euro corrected upwards by the end of the day.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased. Besides the commodity market negative dynamics the UK processing industry production volume weak data caused pressure on the British pound.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trading day in the "red zone" amid demand on the "safe haven assets" amid the instability around Greece.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. Late in the evening the United States issued the last Fed meeting report. The last FOMC meeting was followed by the quarterly economic surveys as well as the press conference by D. Yellen and in this regard investors have already got all the key landmarks and fully played them out in June.

The Fed Minutes, published in the evening did not bring any surprises. The regulator believes that the economy has not achieved the conditions for monetary tightening. There were concerns as well regarding the Greek problem.

Sellers updated the last week minimum of 1.0954, still they failed to consolidate below the support level of 1.0955. The level short-term breakthrough was followed by the refund.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

As the United Kingdom has not published any important macroeconomic statistics, the market's attention was directed to the US Federal Reserve report, which, as it became known later, introduced nothing new. The Fed is still only gave promises to raise the rate. In addition, the sentiments were determined by the commodity and the bond market dynamics. It is worth noting that now both markets are against the British pound. The commodity market sales increased the dollar position, because the raw materials cost was denominated in the US dollar.

The pound fell against the dollar that was caused by the GDP negative data ( the manufacturing industry production volume).

The potential target for the price decline was the support level of 1.5430 where we expect a consolidation with a slight increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 soon. The next target will be 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There were presented the May Japan payment balance. The trade deficit increase with the Bank of Japan foreign reserves reduction indicated the negative data output which would have pressure on the Japanese yen in the short term. The payment balance trade deficit in May: -47.3 billion yen against the forecasted-283.8 billion yen.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was the risky assets strong recovery at the end of the last week. The oil prices rebound helped the traders to distract from the uncertainty Greek pressing problems that immediately affected the pair EUR/USD dynamics: quotations recorded the growth.

The pair GBP/USD has increased amid the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. The upward trend in the world's leading stock markets contributed to the carry trade transactions increase.

After the London trades closure all investors' attention was focused on the US Federal Reserve chairman speech. On the one hand, the net exports reduction amid the US revaluation and low wage growth, on the other hand, pointed to the lack of Janet Yellen "hawkish" views. As we expected, Janet Yellen did not say anything new. She noted that the economy’s dynamic is indeterminate and the Fed will evaluate the conditions at each meeting.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was published the Germany trade balance release that is very encouraging. The net exports are growing quite confident and there is marked their increase in the second quarter. As the trade balance has an important multiplier effect - we expect positive trends on the euro zone labor market.

Buyers tried to break through above the resistance of 1.1150. The buyer failed to break this level and the price returned below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a non-confirmed and a wael buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office published the May trade balance report. This week the industrial production release indicates that this sector has developed immunity to the pound revaluation against the euro.

Having broken through the support level of 1.5390, the downward trend line went into the prolonged consolidation. Then the thrice grew and the level of 1.5460 was broken though. After the resistance level of 1.5550 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support level of 1.5460. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors have again "risk appetite" and in the light of this we expect the bullish sentiment. The Old World stock exchanges finish the trades in the "green zone". The banking and the energy sectors were again the leaders in the US market share and in this regard, traders can continue to build carry trade positions.

Buyers are correcting the price from the support level of 120.40. Its corrective growth was on the lower volumes. The level of 123.50 is a strong resistance for this pair.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 124.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar remains within its former range, however, it reduced the number of its achievements when the data publication said that the jobless claims number have increased by 15,000 to 297,000.

According to the IMF estimates, the global economic growth in 2015 is expected at the level of 3.3% against 3.5% and the growth forecast for 2016 remained at the level of 3.8% against 3.1% in April. The reason for its decline was the "temporary weakness" forecast in the first quarter.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The uncertainty around Greece was all last week. EU summit and the Eurogroup meeting continued almost all weekend, but the specific outcome appeared only on Monday. Greece had to compromise and now the parliament must approve the reforms package in exchange for a bailout from the European Union.

The EUR/USD increased amid the positive "the Greek issue" expectations last week. The Greek government has announced that it is ready to offer a new anti-crisis plan which creditors should make." After the agreement with Greek has been reached, the European currency declined sharply.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a certain demand. The British currency was supported after the May UK trade balance release. However, the pound decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

There was a "bullish" sentiment with the USD/JPY. This is not surprising as the global stock markets perked up after the positive news about the "Greek debt" situation. As a result we had the demand for risky assets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Currency market wins back the creditors’ “Greek debt” decision. Despite the various differences between the parties were still able to reach a consensus, which is a positive factor for the euro. There has been a moderate price increase. The upward trend was also observed on the European stock market as the financial risks were mitigated. However, after it became known that Greece has made concessions to the creditors the pair sharply declined

There was the resistance of 1.1050 breakthrough last week. The breakthrough came in the second times and allowed buyers to deploy a downward trend upward. Also they tested the strong resistance level of 1.1150. The price rebounded downwards from this level and broke down the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1050, 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The last week the May UK positive trade balance release allow us to count on the economic growth acceleration in the second quarter which may support the demand for the British currency. Britain and the United States did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. In this regard, attention should be paid to the debt market dynamics.

The three-day upward correction having formed from the support level of 1.5390 enabled buyers to break the level of 1.5550. There was a price rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670, further then towards 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of trading is determined by the world's leading stock exchanges mood. The positive decision of the Greek problem increased the demand for risk and in this regard the upward trend will be continued. Institutional investors continue to increase transactions on operations carry trade where the Japanese yen is a funding currency.

The price has been correcting to 123.50 for the fourth time in the past six weeks, acting as a resistance. The mark of 123.50 test is occurred on the reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The multi-week negotiations between the Greek government and international lenders have been finally ended with a consensus. The country remains in the euro zone and will receive a long-awaited financial assistance. Athens will be allocated more than 80 billion euros over three years. In exchange, the Tsipras' government will reform the pension system and labor markets.

There was increased volatility in the Forex market. The EUR/USD fell after long positions profit taking when it became known that the Greece crisis is solved.

The GBP/USD showed growth then as traders took profits amid the oil market bearish sentiment.

The positive decision of the "Greek problem" promoted the demand for risky assets in the world, that supported the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the pair fell by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The index ZEW release has been published that has been showing a negative trend for the two months. There is an instability around Greece the last 1.5 months and this fact does not support the growth optimism in the German business community. The index came out with the data 29,7 that is less then 31,5 last month.

Bears fully control "black gold" market. Brent oil confidently entrenched below the psychological level of $ 60 per barrel.

The support levels of 1.1150 and 1.1050 break held against the backdrop of high volume - that is a good signal for the medium-term bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 0.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling strengthened amid the BoE chief Mark Carney’s statements is more likely to raise the rates

The June UK CPI was published. The income has been increased that indicates an increase in consumer spending and ultimately inflation. The gasoline prices have been growing throughout the second quarter which also indicates an increase in CPI. The index came out on the level of 0,0%.

The support level of 1.5460 short-term test was accompanied by an active pound growth against the US dollar. The resistance level of 1.5550 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 1.5670. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the lack of important macroeconomic statistics the pair's trading was determined by the stock and debt markets dynamics. We are seeing demand for "risky assets" amid the Greece and creditors agreement that will help to increase the carry trade operations with the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.50, 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main positive related with Greece has been already played out. Now, traders gradually become aware of what is the price of the agreement. The country is faced with the necessity of hard and painful reforms which are unlikely to please the public. There are reports about the civil servants strikes in the country. Now everything will depend on the government's ability to convey the entire population of the need for the reform. The important news became the Yellen's speech where she said that the rate increase could be expected this year.

The EUR/USD was traded in a flat amid the mixed news background. The euro zone and the US alternately disappointed the market with weak macroeconomic statistics. After the J. Yellen’s speech the dollar strengthened and the pair fell.

Mark Carney has rightly become the main week beginning newsmaker. The rising interest rates moment is getting closer - stated the head of the Bank of England, which caused the rapid growth of the British currency. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD increased.

The pair USD/JPY spent in the positive sentiment last trading day. Earlier traders partly fixed long positions profits considering current levels less attractive to long, based on the continuation of the uptrend. However the news supported the dollar and the pair increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The published euro zone macroeconomic data did not clearly add optimism to "bulls". The ZEW business conditions indicator has been showing a negative trend for the third month in a row, falling in July to its lowest level in seven months. The industrial production index also went into the negative territory for the end of May.

The euro/dollar decreased amid J. Yellen’s speech.

There was the previous minimum update. The level of 1.0925 testing came amid low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

National Office of Statistics has published the May UK labor market release. The Consumer Confidence Gfk indicator signaled that we should not expect strong data. This fact was confirmed by the CPI measure which remained unchanged by the end of June. The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that "the moment of rising interest rates is getting closer." The pound slightly decreased on the yesterday trades.

The second time buyers touched the resistance 1.5550. The pair tested the level of 1.5670 and rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced its meeting results regarding the monetary policy and, in this regard. Bank of Japan noted the positive trend in foreign trade, as well as the households expenditure. However, there is a negative trend in the manufacturing sector.

Four daily US dollar growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at 123.50. The pair broke this level on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The political and the US economy statistics news supported the dollar. The US currency rose against the euro, the yen, and against the British pound. The greenback purchases were started after J.Yellen's speech in the Congress USA. She confirmed that the regulator is approaching to the monetary policy tightening and the key interest rates growth in the current year.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 15 thousand having fallen to 218 thousand.

On the yesterday’s trades, the EUR/USD lost some points amid the US Federal Reserve head stated that the regulator is set to raise the rates this year. The GBP/USD fell after the negative labor market release. The unemployment rate rose to 0.1%, prompting long positions profit-taking. The pair USD/JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand, as well as BoJ the negative inflation outlook.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the Greece debt problems in the beginning of the week. Now, the investors' attention is directed to the Mario Draghi's speech and the ECB meeting results. There was the Fed's head press conference on Thursday. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

Sellers broke the support level of 1.0925 that opened the way to the support level of 1.0790. The price is consolidating above the support level 1.0790 now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0790 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0670, further then towards 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The unemployment rate in Britain increased by 0.1% at the end of May. The core inflation is at 0.8%, the unemployment rate is at 5.6%. We can forget about the rate increase for a while with such statistics.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's made his speech yesterday still there was no reaction at the market after his speech.

The short-term resistance level of 1.5670 stopped the upward pound trend. The level test has led to the downward correction formation that is aimed to support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5670, 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We do not believe in strong yen sales now. The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecast for the financial years 2015-2017 and in this regard the Japanese yen looks rather vulnerable now.

Buyers have failed to break through and gain stay above the strong resistance level of 123.50 for the third time. The level breakthrough comes amid low volumes. Currently, the price is consolidating above 123.50 which already plays a strong supporting role.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc lost the position Swiss currency fell to nearly 3-month low of 0.9553 against the US dollar. The retail trade turnover fell in May in Switzerland, showing the preliminary results of the Federal Statistical Office report. The turnover in real terms fell by 1.8% in May compared to the preceding year, for the fifth month in a row, and after a reduction of 0.1% in April.

The USD/CHF broke through the resistance at 0.9540.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased at the end of the last week amid the commodity market sales and the pair EUR/GBP quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range. Earlier the pair decreased amid the US jobless claims moderately positive statistics as well as the US and the UK bond yields increase.

The pair USD/JPY has finished the trading day in the "green zone". Demand for the "risky assets" still supports bulls.

The US dollar is also going through hard times. Last week the Fed chairman Janet Yellen hinted that the rate hike would be this year. However, the specifics in terms of the rate hike possible timing traders still have not received. As a result, the statement impact on the dollar was minimal.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

If any factor leads to the undesirable monetary policy tightening, the price stability will substantially worsen. "The European Central Bank Governing Council will use all available tools", - says the ECB president Mario Draghi.

"Economic conditions" will likely justify the rate hike at some point this year," - said D. Yelllen, speaking in Congress.

Comparing the ECB and the Fed comments, we can come to the conclusion that the market still will have bullish sentiments towards the US dollar.

Bears brought the price closer to the first obstacle on the way downwards that is the level of 1.0925. The decrease continued started after breaking the mark of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790 and 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the UK inflation and the labor market negative macroeconomic statistics which we received last week - the British pound avoided sales and stabilized around the 56th figure. There are two key factors that support demand for the pound. Firstly, the pair EUR/GBP quotations reduction amid the single European currency weakness. Secondly, the debt market positive dynamics.

The mark 1.5670 continues to demonstrate its strength in the resistance status. The bulls' attempt to break through this barrier was not successful.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5670, the next one is the level of 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the bullish sentiments predominance within the pair. Traders continue to act out the Bank of Japan negative inflation forecast (Inflation indicator №1 for the currency market) and in this regard the Japanese yen is under pressure. Demand for the "risky assets" is still quite high which contributes to the carry trade transactions increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The resistance at the level of 123.50 was broken through and now the price is close to the new resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 124.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 125.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar rose against other major currencies. Last week the dollar index reached the seven week high after the labor market solid data have led to the expectations increase about the Fed raising interest rates before the end of 2015.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.