"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
08.06.2015
Fundamental analysis
At the end of the last week the US dollar was able to recoup some lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.45. By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the longs profit taking \ after the US jobless claims positive report. After the U report the Germany and the US negative bond yields showed a reversal which also points to the bearish sentiment prevalence for the euro. The Non-Farm showed 228K as a result the dollar strengthened.
On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations increase which contributed to demand for the British pound.
The pair USD / JPY had strengthened. The US stock market sales restrained bulls from the large number of long positions opening. The pair dynamics was affected by the Non-Farm report.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The US May labor market report was last week main even that shall set this week movement direction. The non-farm payrolls came out better than the forecasted medians. The leading indicators point out to the Non-Farm at 228K.
The euro strong growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.1375. The short-term level testing was followed by the active price rebound downwards on the increased volume.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is declining.
Trading recommendations
We expect the return below the cloud, the first target might be the level of 1.0925. Otherwise the growth will be continued to 1.1260.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The monetary policy committee kept the asset purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The fall in consumer prices by 0.1% on an annualized ratio revived fears among investors about the Europe's third largest economy deflation. In these circumstances, we do not count on the monetary policy change and the interest rates raising before 2016.
The whole week the British pound was correcting against the US dollar towards the upward channel. The resistance level of 1.5350 was broken through.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.
The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is directed downwards.
The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We believe the falling will be continued. The price will fall towards 1.5100 soon.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The US Treasury short-term and long-term securities declined after the jobless claims positive release which with the US stock market reduction points out to the investors' expectations that the Fed may raise the interest rates this year. After the Non-farms positive report the pair has grown.
The Japanese yen upward trend is consolidating towards the levels’ side channels of 123.65 - 124.85. Despite the continuous consolidation, the bullish trend is still in force.
The price is finding the first support at 125.50, the next one is at 124.30. The price is finding the resistance at 127.00.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are growing. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The euro is in no hurry to leave the taken highs, preferring to trade above the ninth figure. Mixed US statistics, the European leaders’ willingness to work intensively with Greece and a modest increase in activity within the ECB QE keep the euro afloat, preventing the "bears" completely clean up the initiative in their hands.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.
There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are changing their course to upwards.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the growth will be continued and the price will reach 0.9540 soon.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.