"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

On Friday the US dollar continued its winning streak and ended the week with the quotations steady growth against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 96.36. However, the new week began with the dollar decline against other currencies.

According to the data, published at the end of the last week, the 2nd quarter US GDP final assessment was better than expected: 3.9% vs. 3.7%. As a result, the annual growth rate is 2.25%. The final assessment was better than the first two estimates and better than expected. Now investors are waiting for the US new statistics, including the labor market state in order to confirm their rate expectations. The dollar also found some support after the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen said the last week that the US central bank kept plans to raise interest rates this year.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the German government bond yields decline relative to the US and the UK counterparts. However, the week began with the fact that the euro has taken a confident northern movement.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the price decline amid the 3rd quarter US GDP positive data. If in the first half of the day the bulls were in trend in the second half the bears took over the initiative.

By the end of the last week, the USD/JPY pair had increased amid the US and Japan government bond yields increase. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with decline on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The tech sector became the growth leader in the leading European stock markets which indicates the "risk appetite" growth among investors. At such times, we can see the carry trade transactions increase at the expense of funding currencies which include the euro. In addition, the German government bond yields are decreasing relative to the US and the UK counterparts that also reduce investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

The pair euro/dollar took a northern direction. After testing the support level of 1.1150, bulls sent the price up. However, they failed to break the resistance of 1.1260, and the price was fixed under this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1150 soon. After that mark the pair may go to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Last week the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee pointed out to the UK financial stability risks increase. The Brent crude oil dynamics also carries risks for the pound. However, before its decline, the pair GBP/USD is able to demonstrate the short-term price growth amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

The pound/dollar weak southern movement continues. Pound tried to escape upwards, but the bears managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 and fix the price at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 1.5100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The third quarter US GDP final data strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve would increase interest rates this year and, on the contrary, the Bank of Japan will increase the Bank of Japan QE program. The debt market dynamics also confirms optimism about the dollar: the US and Japan government bond yields are expanding which increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets.

The pair dollar/yen continues its southern movement. Overcoming support 120.40, the price was fixed below it.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The American currency was under pressure on the first trading day of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades around 96.11.

The euro has strengthened against the US dollar amid the mixed US data and a number of the Fed officials’ speeches. The US Commerce Department reported that the household spending had risen again in August, exceeding the experts’ assessment. As a result, the pair EUR/USD had increased when the investors escaped from the "risky assets".

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat amid the short positions profit taking. However, the bulls pulled up the pair first, and then the bears took over the initiative and as a result, the trades closed with a decrease.

By the end of the day, the pair USD/JPY had fallen amid the US and Japanese government bond yields decrease as well as the world leading stock exchanges sales decline. The Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda repeated once more time that the Central Bank would continue to implement accommodative policy until they reach the inflation target of 2% that affected the trade dynamics. On this background, the price fell down, despite the short-term increase in the middle of trading.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The investors’ "risk appetite" decline shall support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The German government bond yields are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts. German CPI was expected -0.1% (m/m), but, according to preliminary data, it came out below the forecast 0.2% (m/m) vs. 0.0% (m/m) in the previous month. The index of consumer confidence from the US Conference Board, which everyone expected came out better than expected. Forecast 96.1, in fact turned out to be 103, against 101.3 in the previous month.

North movement for the pair stopped. Bulls attempted to break the level of 1.1260, but the pair pulled back down. However, after the rollback the pair returned to the level of 1.1260. The price was fixed at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1325 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1325, further then towards 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US dollar upward trend is stable and keeps growing. On this week, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley pointed out that the current strong macroeconomic releases draw near the time when the interest rates increase is possible. A positive factor for the dollar comes from the commodity market: the commodities sales put a positive impact on the dollar quotations as the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency.

The pair pound/dollar continues the southern movement. At the beginning of the trading day, the pair tested the 1.5200 resistance, however, overcome this level failed and the price decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5100. When the price consolidates below the first target, it may go to the level 1.4975.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The decline for the "risky assets" may support the yen as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics also points out to the same trend: the US and Japanese government bond yields are declining which increases the Japanese assets investments attractiveness. The FOMC leaders’ positive attitude supports the US dollar.

Trading day started with the pair growth, but it was a short-term phenomenon. For the second half of the day the deals were for sale, and the pair decrease not even tested the 120.40 resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 119.20. After fixing below the first target, the level 118.40 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[url=https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has strengthened amid the carry trade transactions closure, which contributed to euro demand as a funding currency. The euro area data came out worse than expected. The Germany import prices fell by 1.5% in August against 0.7% in previous month. The Spain CPI decreased by 0.9% this month, with forecast decrease of 0.6%. All day the trades focused on the sale. This contributed to the fact that the price of the European currency has gone down.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK government bond yields decrease in relation to the US and Germany counterparts. The number of permits issued for mortgage lending increased by 2 thousand in August reaching 71.03 thousand, despite the fact that the July indicator was 69.01 thousand. The new loans net amount, issued to individuals, amounted to 4.3 billion pounds against the upwardly revised 4.0 billion in July. The September CBI retail sales balance jumped from 24 to 49 (it was forecasted 29). However, the pound was under pressure the whole day and finished it with a decrease.

The world leading stock markets sales supported the demand for the Japanese yen, which caused the pair USD/JPY quotations decrease. The Japanese indicators are quite disappointing: the August industrial production fell by 0.5% against the growth expectations by 1.0%. Now the annual decline is 0.9%. The August retail sales growth was only 0.8% at an annual rate against the expected 1.1% y/y and it amounted 1.6% y/y in July. Against this background, the pair closed the trading with a decrease, despite the fact that in the first half of the day, the price a little bit grown up.

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came higher than expected 194 thousand. The number of new employees amounted to 200 thousand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The lending increase has been observed in the European banking sector for the last six months. Still the current levels are still low enough for the inflationary pressure increase. The world leading stock exchanges negative sentiment will contribute to the pair EUR/USD gradual decline as the shares sales will support the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

All day trades were on a decrease. The price rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1260 to the support level of 1.1150 and did not even test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1050 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistical Office has published the second quarter payments. The data was better than expected -16.8 billion with forecast of -22.3 billion. The Germany and the UK government bond yields may support the pound for a short time. The consumer confidence strong data was published in favor of the US currency, which confirms the US economic growth high rate.

The pound/dollar keeps weak downward movement. After the level of 1.5200 test, the pair took a southern direction, having fixed above the level of 1.5100 by the end of trading.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expected the retail sales positive data output. The PMI production sector growth indicates the industrial production increase. However the data came out worse then forecasted 1,0% at the level of 0,8%. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Trades started with bulls’ trend. However, in the second part of the trades, the bears took away the price from resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has strengthened, but against some of its competitors, it weakened. The dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.48. According to the ADP, the US main event is the September number of jobs in the private sector. The index caused optimism in the stock exchanges and its increase amounted 200 thousand against the expected 192 thousand. The US manufacturing sector is showing rather bad results - the Chicago manufacturing sector business activity index decreased from 54.4 to 48.7 in September while it was expected 53.2. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 10 thousand having grown to 277 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased after the September Eurozone CPI negative release. The number of unemployed in Germany increased by two thousand and the euro area overall unemployment rate grew from 10.9% to 11.0%. The September consumer price index preliminary assessment fell by 0.1% y/y vs. 0.0%, the core CPI remained at the previous level of 0.9% y/y. During the day, the pair showed a decrease, with a price slight correction upward by the end of trading.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day with the price decrease amid the US employment positive publication. In addition, the British GDP has remained at the level of 0.7% the 2nd quarter, still the annual rate was revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. By the end of trading, the pound managed to slightly increase against the dollar.

The world demand for the "risky assets" has supported the pair USD/JPY. By the end of the day, the instrument decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the past month to 52.3 from 52.5 previously fixed, the business activity index fell in the manufacturing sector in Germany. Economists expected the index over the past month would remain unchanged at 52.5. Moreover, the German paper show a decrease in the bond market, the yield to US and British colleagues. Against this background, the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the EU reduced.

On Thursday, the pair at reducing tested support level of 1.1150. However, in the second half of the day the price took a northern direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The “black gold” pressures the pound. Previously, the US Energy Department reported about the crude oil and gasoline increase, which is a negative factor for the Brent quotations. We remind, that oil inventories showed an increase of 3.955 million. barrels with forecast of 0.102 million. The industrial business activity index amounted to 51.5 points in September while everybody expected an increase to 51.3 points; the previous value was revised from 51.5 points to 51.6

The pair is trading in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5100. The instrument closed with a decrease by the end of the trading day.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen remained under pressure after the Japanese Tankan mixed corporate sentiment data. The Japan and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a bullish factor for the dollar. Meanwhile, we expected the ISM manufacturing sector positive data: 50.6 against the previous 51.1. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims totaled 277K against the previous 267K, still the market expected 270K.

The pair shows a trade in a flat between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Switzerland August retail sales fell by 0.3% against the growth forecast by 0.3% after the previous 0.1. Then, the August retail sales rose up by 0.5% m / m. The Switzerland business activity index fell to 49.5 in September from the previous 52.2. The US number of initial jobless claims was expected 270K vs. 267K while it amounted 277K.

The price broke through the resistance level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9850 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the major pairs were in the flat. Fears for the industrial sector state have been intensified even more in the US. The September manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Manufacturing PMI) came out worse than the forecast: 50.2 against 50.8 and 51.1 in August. The number of jobless claims increased from 267K to 277K.

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had decreased. The euro zone manufacturing sector business activity final assessment remained unchanged at the level of 52.0 in September and the auctions, designed for placing the Spain and France 10-year government bonds have decreased: from 2.15% to 1.84% in Spain, from 1.21% to 0.98% in France.

The pair GBP/USD finished the week with the growth amid the British government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD/JPY closed the Friday with the growth despite the carry trade transactions closure in the US trading session.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The September US labor market publication was the last week key event. Given the fact that the euro CPI once again is approaching the deflationary area, traders have no other choice but to buy the US currency. The Germany government bond yields decreased in the debt market amid the US and the UK counterparts which is also a negative factor for the euro.

The price was not able to continue the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement. The Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The southern movement may be continued. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it may reach the level 1.1050 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The unemployment decrease and the UK average earnings growth triggered the strong demand for mortgage loans at the end of August. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their American and German competitors that increases the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The market expected quite positive the US Labor market data. In fact the data was inverse. The figures were worse than our expectations.

The pound continues its weak downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets instability supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The capital movement report in the Tokyo stock market again showed the bond demand increase. The Japan and the US government bond yields are declining that also reduces the US assets investments’ attractiveness. We expected to see the US labor market moderately positive data.

The price is again correcting.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40



Franc (CHF)

General overview

As usual, the CFTC published the franc number of net speculative positions. As economists expected the September number of jobs rose by 203,000 in the US and according to the ADP data. The employment high rate will allow the Fed to raise interest rates this year which will cause the dollar growth.

The pair resumed its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The first resistance is at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9880.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth is stopped. We believe the pair will fall to 0.9650 first. Having overcome this level the price might go to 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Friday US Labor data came out worse than traders expected. The September Nonfarm payrolls amounted 142 thousand while the August indicator was revised into the negative side. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at the level of 25.09 dollars an hour. The market reacted with the dollar decrease to the news that the rate hike is postponed. Investors have reduced the October increase expectations by 6% and the probability of the December increase to 28%. Indeed, now the market is expecting the first quarter rate increase next year.

As a result, the pair EUR/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1.1180. At the beginning of the week investors study the August Eurozone retail sales, the forecast was -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1. 5150. Investors' attention is directed to the September service sector business activity index and its forecast was 6.4 against the August 55.6.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trades at the mark of 120.50. The Markit service sector business activity index was expected with a growth from 5.6 to 55.7 in the September final assessment, the non-manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) was expected with decrease from 59.0 to 58.0.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The moderately positive background was formed for the single European currency. The Germany and the US government bond yields are decreasing which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. In addition, we expected the ISM service sector business climate negative release amid the private sector employment weak data which also weakens the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The price will be falling if it remains under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price is returned to the southern movement. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it will decrease to the level 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The credit markets’ trend is in favor of the British currency: the UK and the US negative 10-year government bond yields fell by 8.6 bp at the end of the last week. The oil market bullish sentiments will put pressure on the dollar as the energy cost is denominated in the US currency. The pound continues its downward movement having fallen yesterday by the trades end.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the US labor market negative data the Japanese yen was unable to consolidate below the 119 figure - the pair has strong buyers who push the quotations upwards. However, the weak employment figures led to the Treasury short term bond yields significant increase which signals that the Fed will not raise rates until the end of the year.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The direction has been changed. The pair returned to a growth. Our first target is 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions yesterday. Still the dollar was not able to hold the growing pace and fell. – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.25. The US Markit Economics service sector business activity final assessment had been reduced: 55.1 versus 55.6. The non-manufacturing sector business activity national index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) showed decline from 59.0 to 56.9.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. The euro area macro-economic data came out worse than expected. The September euro area business activity evaluation index turned out to 53.7 against 54.0 of the initial assessment and the unchanged forecast. The August euro area retail sales showed the zero growth against the forecast of -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth. The UK service sector PMI report turned out to be negative. The UK service sector business activity fell from 55.6 to 53.3 in September (the lowest index over the last two years) against the growth forecast to 56.4.

The USD/JPY had increased amid the leading world stock markets growth. Still the price turned down by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This trading week started with "risk appetite" growth in the "green zone" among the world leading stock indices as well as the high-yield cross-rates. The euro might get be under pressure as a funding currency. In contrast, the Debt Market is signaling about the moderate demand for European assets: the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been declining for two trading days in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We do not have s clear signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade .

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The direction is not determined. The EUR/USD may go any way. The first growth target is the level of 1.1325. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the UK 10-year government bond yields grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. In addition, the commodity market is in the "green zone": the oil and industrial metals enjoyed steady demand yesterday which is a negative factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened. Meanwhile we see a growth dynamics. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The carry trade trades grew amid pessimism that the US interest rates will be changed this year. That face reduces the "safe haven" yen investments’ attractiveness. On the other hand, the United States continues to disappoint traders with the negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM service sector index was 56.9% in September, thus having fallen below the annual average.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The last trading session macroeconomic statistics played an insignificant role. Perhaps even such political events such as the twelve countries agreement about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, led by the US, had little impact on the exchange rates. In general, the Asian stock markets showed the positive trend. Perhaps the market was once again subjected to speculative pressure amid the overall uncertainty.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trading day with the quotations growth amid the US August trade balance weak data. With forecast -47.40B, in fact trade balance turned out to be -48.33B. The Germany August industrial orders have fallen by 1.8% and the July indicator was revised downwards to -2.2% from -1.4%. The Eurozone retail sector business activity increased from 51.4 to 51.9 in September. The complex of these factors influenced the quotations for the euro/dollar, which showed a decrease during trading day.

The GBP/USD pair had increased amid the Brent oil quotations rapid growth. The UK Halifax house prices index fell in September by 0.9% against the growth forecast by 0.1%. The pair continued its rapid upward movement.

During the day, the pair USD/JPY was trading in the narrow flat amid the "risky assets" moderate demand. The US August trade balance showed deficit of -48.3 billion dollars against -47.6 billion dollars forecast. This has contributed to the weakening of the dollar against the yen, which is shown by trading on the decrease throughout the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields decline in credit market that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness. The US bond market still cannot come down from the weak employment data. The German 10-year government bond yields are growing in relation to their UK counterparts which has a positive effect on the pair EUR GBP in general and on the single European currency in particular.

During the day bears managed to return the pair below level of 1.1260. The price shows correctional southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We still do not have a clear signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade further.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The first growth target is the level of 1.1260. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The debt and commodity markets’ dynamics is now clearly on the "bulls" side. In addition, the data on the volume of production in the manufacturing industry has been released. The data was 0.2% better than expected, accounting for 0.5%. The UK and the US government bond yields have been declining for five consecutive trading days, which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Yesterday the Brent crude oil reached the level of $ 50/barrel, which will put pressure on the dollar.

The pair continues the rapid movement north. Bulls managed to break the resistance level of 1.5300, and if the bears will not take the initiative, the price will continue to rise.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The growth dynamics is slowed down. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to 1.5200 first.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of Japan meeting results publication. Mr. Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan's policy is aimed at the exchange rate rather than price. Also, the chief of a Japanese bank noted sustained recovery of the US economy. At the end of the third quarter the Japanese 10 year government bond yields, which reflects investors' expectations about inflation, has fallen by 11.4 bp and now it has been at its lowest level for the last 5 months. Yesterday the US and the Japan government bond yields showed the minimal changes which does not allow to conclude demand for the US or Japanese assets.

The price of the instrument shows the spiral corrective movement. During the day there was bear trend, which is shown by trades on decrease in the corridor 120.40 and 119.20 levels.

The price started its correctional movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency tried to strengthen against its major competitors – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 95.65. Investors' attention is directed to the US Labor Ministry jobless claims weekly report. The forecast was 274K vs. 277K the previous week. The index showed 263K.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields increase. The Germany industrial production negative indicators were published and left the euro no chance for the expected correction continuation. The August German Industrial Production fell by 1.2% against the growth expectations by 0.3%. During the day, the pair showed mixed trading, maintaining the upward movement.

The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the August UK industrial production strong data. The UK macroeconomic indicators were even better than expected and the British pound continued to rise. Industrial production showed growth by 1.0% vs. 0.3%. Investors are studying the Bank of England last meeting minutes. Mr. Carney said that inflation remains below 1% until the spring of 2016. The pound/dollar continues to show north course.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day with the quotations decrease amid the demand increase for the "risky assets". The foreign markets power and the Bank of England neutral rhetoric are not sufficient for the USD/JPY growth when the Japanese economic indicators decline. The own negative Japanese data turned out to be stronger. The pair is in flat, against a background of weak southern movement.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which reduce the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets. In addition, the demand for higher-yielding stocks and cross-rates puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The United States presented a number of initial jobless claims for August. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K. The Fed also published its meeting minutes. It says the majority considers that the conditions for the rate increase will be achieved before the end of the year

The price is trying to continue its upward movement. Despite different directions of trading, the pair managed to break the resistance level of 1.1260 and continues to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The pair left the Cloud. We have a confirmed and strong buy signal The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing now. The first target is the level of 1.1325. The next target is the level of 1.1410.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency can use the demand amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The whole week we see the US and the UK 10-year government bond yields in the debt market which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Investors' attention is directed to the Fed meeting minutes and the US labor market publication.

The pound exchange rate continued its upward movement. In the first half of the day, bears dragged the pair under the level of 1.5300, but later bulls managed to return the price above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Now the credit markets dynamics is on the "bulls’ side": the US and Japan government bond yields are declining which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Demand for the risky assets is increasing. The high-yield currency cross rates were in demand among investors which indicates the carry trade operations increase and will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is still correcting.

The price continues corrective movement trading in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20 against the background of weak southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Economic Affairs State Secretariat data (SECO) showed that the Switzerland unemployment rate rose in September in line with the economists' expectations. The seasonally corrected unemployment rate rose up to 3.4 % from 3.3 % in August. The uncorrected unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.2 %. Last year the indicator was 3 % in August. Meanwhile, the US jobless claims report was published. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K.

The price broke through the support level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed below this mark, already have tested the level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US dollar strengthened its position against its major counterparts amid the US 10-year government bond yields strong growth against its Germany, UK and Japan counterparts. Still then investors have begun to actively sell the US currency. According to the last FOMC meeting minutes the monetary authorities are afraid to raise the interest rates because of the US low inflation and the global economy slowdown. The labor market significant increase was noted not for the first time.

As a result, the EUR/USD trades ended the week at the mark of 1.1358. The reports that indicate that the global economy is experiencing difficulties put again pressure on the euro. The Germany trade balance results have not met our forecasts - the surplus was much worse, showing reduction up to 15.3 billion euros against the July 25.4 billion euros when it was expected to see 19.0 billion euros.

The GBP/USD ended its trades at the mark of 1.5308. The Bank of England meeting results have put strong pressure on the "cable". There was not anything surprising in the BoE decision - the interest rate remained at the level of 0.5%, still the Central Bank purchases fund amounted to 375 billion pounds.

The pair USD/JPY finished at the mark of 120.25. The price remained in the narrow side range and the day result was marked by a very slight advantage in favor of the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the Germany government bond yields grew at the end of the last week which increased the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The “bullish” sentiment prevailed in the European and North American stock markets which is also a positive factor for the US dollar. International investors are still inclined to the "risk appetite" which puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency.

The price continued its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

At the moment the British currency is left without drivers for the quotations growth. Perhaps the inflation will remain below 1% until the spring of 2016. The inflation slowdown causes traditionally pressure on the Forex market national currency. In addition, the UK 10-year government bond yields showed a decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts after the MPC minutes publication.

The pound exchange rate continues its upward movement and almost reached the last resistance level.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy though the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. If the pair holds there it may grow to the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Macroeconomic statistics caused the US and the Japan government bond yields increase which shall support the demand for the US currency. Moderate demand for the "risky assets" will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency which will also have a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 119.20 will be tested soon. Still the level of 121.60 remains the first target for a growth.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The CFTC published the weekly report showing the number of net speculative positions within the franc: -2.7K earlier, this week index was 4K. Investors focused on the US three-day summit results which began last week Friday.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first. The second sell target is the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.