"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.08.2016

EUR/USD

General review

EURUSD, slightly weakened, after a positive start of today trading, amid a mixed statistics for the euro area.

Current situation

On H4 chart, there is reversal candle pattern, appeared after pair pulled back to the key level 1.1320 area.

Trading recommendations

Middle term upward trend is still in the game. As the closest resistance level is the area of 1.1461. However, in the current situation of uncertainty we remain out of the market.



JPY/USD

General review

Business activity index in Japan manufacturing sector in August increased to 49.6 against 49.3 in July. During the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY, continued to drop.

Current situation

The pair remains within the range we marked 99.91-101.78. We expect the market will again rebound from the bottom level of the range of 99.91 and to pull back at least to the balance area of 100.30.

Trading recommendations

At the same time we note that the probability increased that USDJPY will trade below 99.70-99.90 support minimum, to renew local minimums.



XAU/USD:

General review

In the Asian session gold returned within medium-term range 1336-1358.

Current situation

However, gold remains under pressure-the last pullback might be triggered by closing stops. Returns above 1346 will mark the strengthening of bull positions.

Trading recommendations

We expect the consolidation to continue with returning to balance level of the range 1.1345



AUD / USD:

General review

After yesterday's growth and the opening gap filling, the market continued to gain, as pair returns to the key level of 0.7660.

Trading recommendations

We expect the movement to slow down in front of 0.7660 resistance level and the kind of consolidation. However, attempts to settle above 0.7660 are likely.



BRENT:

General review

Oil prices continue to decline, amid investor concerns over rising supplies from Iraq and Nigeria, as well as growth in the number of drilling rigs in the United States.

Trading recommendations

The oil market continues to drop and today traded at around $ 48.70. US Inventory data is in the focus tomorrow. Today we expect the consolidation in the range of 48.50-48.70 dollars per barrel, followed by a transition to a relative growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.08.2016

EUR/USD

General review

EUR/USD was unable to consolidate above the important 1.1320 level.

Current situation

Today, the pair EUR/USD, started to lose, thus breaking through and consolidating below the important 1.1320 level. The pair is heading toward 1.1245 level

Trading recommendation

We expect the EURUSD dropping to slow down near the support level of 1.1245. Nevertheless, in the wake of the European currency the weakening the market may drop to the basic support level at the 1.1195-1.1210 area



JPY/USD

General review

According to our forecast the USDJPY continues to trade within the range of 99.90-100.78

Current situation

Trading activity is low. Since the morning European session USDJPY trades around the median level of the specified range 100.30-100.40

Trading recommendation

We expect that by the end of the week the pair will continue to consolidate within the boundaries of the specified channel. Meanwhile, the level of 100.78 has become a significant resistance level.



XAU/USD:

General review

As we expected during this week gold has begun to breakthrough from the medium-term channel 1.1356-1.1358 with downward direction

Current situation

After breaking through the resistance zone of 1.1330-1.1336 market is dropping lower.

Trading recommendations

The next support zone is located near 1.1320-1.1325. We expect that the market is moving towards these levels. Strategic support is around 1.1310



AUD / USD:

General review

Yesterday, the pair failed to consolidate above the level of 0.7676- traders used to the level for new sales.

Trading recommendations

Technically the picture is composed in favor of further decline. The first significant level of support is in the 0.7496-0.7500 area.



BRENT:

General review

Oil prices resumed the decline after a rollback of in the area of $ 50 a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that US crude stocks rose 4.5 million barrels last week.

Current situation

Price is consolidating in anticipation of the official data on crude inventories by US Department of Energy above the level of $ 49 per barrel.

Trading recommendations

If the figures will be similar to API data, this might lead the market in the area of $ 48- $ 48.50



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.08.2016

EUR/USD

General review

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair showed downward movement, breaking and consolidating below 1.1291 level. At the same time, today, after the publication of business climate index in Germany, the pair EURUSD, significantly strengthened, returning to the level of 1.1291. Today US data showed that core orders for durable goods rose in July by 1.5%, compared to June, exceeding the expectations of analysts. The volume of durable goods orders in the US is growing faster, adding 4.4% in July, compared to June, with growth forecasts of 3.3%. The number of initial claims for for unemployment benefit in the US totaled 261,000, with projections of 265,000.

Current situation

Pushing back off the level 1.1245 the pair become stronger in the area of 1.1295. Market activity has been reduced.

Trading recommendations

We expect consolidation trade within the boundaries of 1.1245-1.1325, 1.1340. At least before the head of FED speech.



JPY/USD

General review

The market situation in USD/JPY currency pair has not changed.
The pair continues to consolidate within the channel 99.90-100.79. Yesterday the pair USD / JPY, has once again pushed off the bottom border.

Trading recommendations

Our forecast remains the same- we expect sideway trade until the results of Yellen speech. However, the likelihood of the continuation of the downward movement after consolidation given the technical factors become higher.



AUD / USD

General review

Yesterday, on the daily chart the AUD/USD formed a doji reversal pattern, and then, during the Asian session, bulls resumed growth to the test 0.7650. Support is in the area of 0.7595. Resistance area is at 0.7650-0.7660

Trading recommendations

The market will continue to consolidate in the specified range. However, technical factors indicate the possible pullback to the area 0.7500-0.7550.



XAU/USD

General review

During yesterday's trading, gold price sharply dropped breaking and consolidating below the level of 1335, -1336.

Trading recommendations

We expect the gold decrease will continue. Next support is around 1315 to 1309.



Brent

General review

Today oil prices is a bit stronger, despite yesterday's data on US oil inventories.

Current situation

Brent oil futures returned above the level of 49 dollars, approaching the psychological level of $ 50 per barrel. The market strengthened on strong today US data.

Trading recommendations

In addition to Yellen performance, the market will focus on the US statistical date. We expect the decline in volatility and further consolidation on these levels before Friday's news.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.08.2016

EUR / USD

General overview

EURUSD pair shows a positive trend, the second day in a row.

Current situation

At the same time, the buyers are not strong enough to settle above the key resistance level of 1.1291,

Trading recommendations

There is a possibility of correction, towards the key support level of 1.1113



USD / JPY:

General overview

Japan national base index of the consumer prices (y / y), was -0.5% in July, with forecasts of -0.4%. The base consumer price index in Tokyo (y / y), was 0.4%, the forecast of -0.3% in August.

Current situation

Volatility for the pair USD / JPY remains very low- most of the participants are out of the market in anticipation of Yellen speech. In the current situation, buyers and sellers are in balance, as the price is around the middle level of the channel 100.30-100.40.

Trading recommendations

After today weak statistics data, there was a small probability of correction upwards, on expectations of new stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, exit of the consolidation is based on Yellen performance and much will depend on its words.



AUD / USD:

General overview

The pair continues to consolidate in a narrow range 0.7600-0.7650. The situation is not clear- breaking from consolidation can be in any direction.

Trading recommendations

We tend to think that before AUDUSD test the key level of 0.7660 the pair will drop down to levels 0.7500-0.7550.



NZD / USD:

General overview

The pair NZD / USD is continuing a slow but steady growth moving along a rising trend line.

Current situation

In NZD/USD market bulls have moved the price above the key resistance level 0,7300-0.7314.

Trading recommendations

However, there was not confirming settlement signal still; we do not exclude a pullback on volatility.



XAUUSD:

General overview

During yesterday's trading, gold moved to insignificant correction, the market pulled back to levels of 1325, which could be due to profit-taking and short covering before Friday's session.

Trading recommendations

We expect pullback to procced to 1310-1315 levels where the medium-term demand is located. However, the second half of the day promises to be volatile.



Brent

General overview

The oil market has stabilized in the support level of 49 dollars per barrel. At the same time moving above also failed. The news background still provides speculative driver for growth (the upcoming Energy Forum in Algeria, Iran's readiness to cooperate with OPEC). Fundamental factors are opposite to market gains (crude inventories rise in the United States).

Trading recommendations

FED position on interest rate hike will help to get out of consolidation- much will depend on US dollar market. We look forward to continuing consolidation in these ranges. $49-$51 – market range for upcoming week.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.08.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar was stable on Monday on the back of J.Yellen's comments plus previous comments by FOMC’s officials which intensified expectations of a potential rate hike by the Fed at the September meeting.

Current situation

The EUR/USD continued to decrease on Monday and found a decent support in the 1.1170 area in the North American session. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

The indicators MACD and RSI resumed their declines within negative territory. MACD indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI entered the oversold area.

The price broke downwards the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards and generate a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

All eyes are right now at the support level 1.1130. If the price breaks this support, the instrument may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.1070 level.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD was under pressure on Monday. The market was closed due to the Banking holiday and sterling traded under influence of external factors.

Current situation

The pound extended its decline against the U.S dollar on Monday. The pair broke the 1.3100 level and consolidated below it. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) are negative. MACD generate a sell signal. The RSI is oversold which signals about a possible correction.

The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart, however, the pound did not move far from the lines and stayed below them. The moving averages are turning downwards and generate a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the pair. Once we consolidate below the 1.3100 mark, we think that the 1.3000 level will be next.



Yen

General overview

The dollar grew to the 2-week high on the back of the renewed hopes that the Fed might raise the rates in September. Japanese stocks supported the dollar as well.

Current situation

The USD/JPY gapped higher and extended its gains on Monday. The pair found a solid resistance at 102.50 which did not let the price further upwards. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area. Both indicators generate a buy signal.

The USD/JPY broke the 200-EMA and headed away from it in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for a growth towards 102.50 resistance area.



AUD/USD

General overview

AUD fell due to Fed officials’ comments about strengthening the monetary policy in the nearest future.

Current situation

The pair touched a four-week low on Monday, however, AUD/USD managed to recover some of its lost ground. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI continued consolidating within oversold area.

The 4 hours chart shows that the price is below the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 is crossing the 100 EMA downwards and both lines are moving down.

Trading recommendations

We believe the AUD/USD will remain under pressure. The current weakness is expected to extend further to 0.7470.



XAUUSD

General overview

The dollar grew following the Yellen’s hawkish comments which weighed on the gold futures.

Current situation

The XAU/USD gapped downwards and set new lows on Monday. The pair traded in red figures and stayed close to the level 1316. The instrument partly recovered in the North American session. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area.

The 50-EMA is crossing downwards the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decrease towards 1316 support area.



Brent

General overview

Brent remained under pressure as traders doubt that the OPEC members will limit oil output at the September meeting.

Current situation

Brent futures closed bearish yesterday. The instrument remained in a side channel between 49.00-49.50 levels during the trades. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral.

Brent futures broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA broke the 200-EMA upwards in the mentioned timeframe. All lines are still moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

In the near term, the outlook is neutral until we get Crude Oil Stock report on Thursday.



DAX

General overview

European stocks were under pressure as traders digested the latest Yellen’s comments about possible rate hike by the Fed.

Current situation

The index was neutral and stayed close to the 10520 level on Monday. The price traded in a narrow side channel limited by the levels 10468 and 10560. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is neutral.

The 4 hours chart shows that the price is sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50-EMA is turning downwards, the 100 and 200 Day EMAs are still moving upwards. The moving averages still generate a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The level 10520 stays between the price and its further decrease. Shall the index break the level and the road towards 10350 will be opened.



S&P 500

General overview

Wall Street traded higher on Monday due to U.S inflation and consumer reports.

Current situation

The index rallied on the back of the positive data on Monday. Traders were able to push the price from the level 2165 to the 2180 mark. S&P500 closed the day bullish. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI moved away from the oversold area and approached the overbought one.

The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The index grew and managed to touch the 50 and 100 Day EMAs. The moving averages are moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

If a bullish momentum is preserved the index will continue growing. The next buyers’ target is the mark 2180.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.08.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar is strong due to the latest J.Yellen’s comments about growing possibility of the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair traded near the fresh lows on Thursday. The price stayed below the broken 200-EMA and the current support at 1.1150 in the 4 hours chart. Traders were inactive ahead of the upcoming statistics in the USA. The 200-EMA is neutral while the 50 and 100 Day EMAs are turning down. In the 1 hour chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are crossing the 200-EMA downwards. The moving averages generate a sell signal. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

The indicators MACD and RSI remained flat within negative territory, maintaining the risk towards the downside.

Trading recommendations

The trend is objectively bearish. If the price remains below the 200-EMA and the 50 and 100 EMAs will advance south in the 4 hours chart we may see a downtrend continuation. The level 1.1130 is the first sellers’ target.



Pound

General overview

Pound weakened on Thursday following the weak data. At the same time the U.S dollar is strong on the back of the expectations that the Fed will raise the rate this year.

Current situation

The GBP/USD fell back towards its weekly low on the earlier Thursday's trades; however, the sterling regained some of its losses in the American Session. The current resistance is seen at 1.3200, the support exists at 1.3100.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) are negative. MACD generate a sell signal. The RSI bounced from the oversold area.

The price returned below the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving close to each other in the mentioned timeframe. The 200-EMA is hovering above them. All lines are moving downwards and show a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The indicators recommend short positions. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair falls below the support level 1.3050.



Yen

General overview

The pair grew on Thursday when Overall Household Spending did not meet traders’ expectations. Besides, positive Consumer Confidence index strengthened the dollar across the board.

Current situation

The USD/JPY traded near fresh 3-week highs. The growing impulse continued, the instrument accelerated its growth. The 4 hours chart shows that MACD and RSI are flat within positive territory. The price advanced north from the 200-EMA. There are some risks towards the upside now. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

Trading recommendations

This loss of the 102.50 level is now pointing to a further period of upward movement to come. The level 103.00 is the first buyers' target. However, the USD/JPY is oversold and we expect an upside any moment now. Should the pair roll back we will sell with a target at 101.40.



NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD/USD pair was under pressure as the fresh hopes for a U.S. rate hike in 2016 continued to weigh on the kiwi.

Current situation

The NZD/USD remained under pressure. The price continued to grind lower after an unsuccessful attempt to regain the 0.7250 level. Buyers were just able to push the quotes towards 0.7260 where sellers got the ball and lead the price down. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI continued moving towards the oversold area.

The pair left behind the 100-EMA and is trending towards the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the price. The 200-EMA is still bullish, the 50 and 100 Day EMAs are turning down fallowing the price.

Trading recommendations

Moving below the 0.7270 support (100-EMA) would suggest a resumption of the bear trend. The NZD/USD shall decrease to the 0.7180 region where the 200-EMA lies. A successful break of the 200-EMA will prolong a downtrend towards 0.7150.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold softened due to the latest Fed officials’ remarks about the next U.S. rate hike.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market, the pair closed bearish yesterday. Sellers met a solid support at the 1316 mark which were not able to break at once. The price rolled back to 1325.40 where the XAU/USD turned around and returned back to the support level. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316.

The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated near the oversold area.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. The moving averages are trending downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The XAU/USD is now under the risk of falling under the level of 1316. A break below this mark risks a decline back towards the support at 1310.



Brent

General overview

Traders focused on the weekly report on U.S stockpiles of crude and refined products. Better-than-expected U.S. Consumer Confidence index supported the dollar and weighed on Brent futures.

Current situation

Brent showed low volatile trades during Asian and European sessions on Thursday. The instrument became active in the American session where the price had a sharp drop from the resistance 49.50 to the support at 48.50. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI advanced to the oversold area.

Brent futures bounced from the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing upwards. The moving averages do not give a clear signal.

Trading recommendations

We are bearish on the Brent. All eyes are right now at the support level 48.50. If Brent break the level, the price may fall to the 47.50 level.



Nasdaq

General overview

Wall Street traded lower on Thursday as traders waited for new clues for the possible rate hike from the Fed.

Current situation

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. Bears are gradually gaining more overall control. Traders led the price from the level 4800 to the support at 4770. The instrument bounced from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and 200-EMAs are trending upwards, the 50-EMA is pointing downwards. The resistance is seen at 4800, the support lies at 4770.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is heading towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If Nasdaq makes a breakout of 4770 that may trigger an additional downward momentum towards 4740.



S&P 500

Current situation

The index had a negative day on Thursdays. The price moved away from the resistance 2180 towards the support at 2165. The instrument bounced downwards from the 50 and 100 Day EMAs which are parallel to each other. The S&P500 is in-between the 200-EMA and the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved away from the oversold area and is neutral now.

Trading recommendations

The index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 2165. Break below 2165 would open the way to 2150




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.09.2016

Euro

General overview

A better-than-expected US ADP survey increased the prospect of the Fed interest rate hike.

Current situation

The dollar preserved a bullish tone across the board. The pair tested fresh 3-week lows on the back of a better-than-expected ADP private employment survey. In general, the EUR/USD stays in a downward channel, advancing south. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is just turning down. The MACD and RSI indicators maintain bearish slopes within negative territory. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

Trading recommendations

The price stays at the support 1.1130. If the EUR/USD pair breaks below this level, then this could lead to renewed selling momentum, possibly towards 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

Positive Consumer Confidence in the UK slightly supported the pound. The index came in at -7 vs. expectations of -8. However, a strong US ADP report weighed on the sterling and the pair resumed its decrease.

Current situation

The GBP/USD pair showed a mixed dynamics on Wednesday. At first the price grew in the Asian session, then, the instrument turned around and resumed its decrease in the European and North American ones. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) generate a sell signal. The price is returning below the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the 1.3100 level break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.3000.



Yen

General overview

The dollar grew vs. the yen due to the latest Fed officials’ comments and the release of encouraging US employment data.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Wednesday. The price kept advancing towards the 103.50 resistance. MACD is heading north within positive territory, RSI is in the overbought territory. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their advance north which is a buy signal. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

Trading recommendations

According to the indicators the price is overbought. There is a risk towards the upside. After the break above 103.50, we may see the price extending up to the 104.50 level. In case of the upside the USD/JPY shall return below the 102.00 region.



USD/CAD

General overview

A better-than-expected US ADP Employment survey and disappointing Canadian GDP for Q2 weighed on the Canadian dollar.

Current situation

The pair resumed its bullish momentum and set a fresh 3-week high which is the highest level since August 10th. The USD/CAD could escalate up to 1.3133. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart the price is advancing from the moving averages which are turning upwards to follow the price. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100.

Trading recommendations

We expect markets to stay fairly positive. In this potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/CAD could well be around 1.3150. Conversely, the instrument can turn around. In this scenario, sellers will push the price to the 1.3050 region.



XAUUSD

General overview

The XAU/USD traded close to the 2-month low level as investors awaited for the U.S. statistics to evaluate if its economy was ready for a rate hike.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downward channel, close to its lower boundary. The instrument stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300.

The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated near the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The pair presents a bearish tone, all indicators recommend short positions. If the gold futures preserve downward momentum its next stop could well be at the 1300 region.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil fell to the 3-week low when oil supplies in the U.S. rose for the second week in a row.

Current situation

The crude oil is under intense selling pressure. The sellers managed to lead the price from the resistance 48.50 to the level 47.50. The price did not remain at 47.50 and continued advancing south. MACD and RSI slightly changed from yesterday. The indicators generate a sell signal. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The price broke the 100-EMA on its way down in the 4 hours chart. The instrument is approaching the 200-EMA now. The 50-EMA is moving down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still heading north.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps going down it will reach the level 46.50 soon.



DAX

General overview

European stocks moderately decreased, finishing the second month in a row with a growth.

Current situation

The index finished the day negatively despite the positive trend. The price stepped away from the weekly high at 10700. DAX is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is moving from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

DAX may decrease to the support 10520 where the 50 and 100 EMAs lie.



S&P 500

General overview

American stocks opened lower on Wednesday as a strong dollar pressured on oil futures and materials companies.

Current situation

The index was lower on Wednesday. The S&P500 retreated from the monthly high. Sellers pushed the price from 2180 towards the mark 2165. The price broke the 200-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

In the medium term, the outlook is bearish. If the price keeps falling it will break the level 2165. The second sellers’ target is 2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.09.2016

Euro

General overview

A weaker-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI weighed on the dollar and supported the euro.

Current situation

In the short term our outlook is bullish. The dollar was in a flat ahead of the U.S statistics. The pair traded in a range between the support 1.1130 and the level 1.1160. After a weak Manufacturing PMI the price rallied and approached the mark 1.1200. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

The EUR/USD pair is under 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages generate a sell signal.

MACD shows a bullish divergence in the 1 hour timeframe. The RSI indicator headed towards the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Technically the EUR/USD may reverse and grow towards 1.1200 and 1.1270. Otherwise, the instrument will continue falling with a target at 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The pound rallied on the back of strong Manufacturing PMI in the UK.

Current situation

A better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI supported the GBP/USD pair. The price grew from the session lows at 1.3130 to the daily highs at 1.3270. The pair was also supported by a weak U.S. Manufacturing PMI later the day. The price finished the day in the 1.3220 region. The instrument approached 1.3360 at the start of the North American session.

The price broke the 200-EMA and headed from it in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is still downwards. The lines generate a sell signal. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

As long as market holding above 1.3200 the uptrend pressure will continue towards 1.3360. Conversely, the price will return below 1.3200 and further below 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

The dollar remained closed to the 3-week highs ahead of the upcoming Non Farm Payrolls report.

Current situation

In general, the pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The bullish views are still popular. The USD/JPY continued to advance north and set a new daily high at 103.80. The price slightly decreased at the start of the American Session after a weak statistics. The 50-EMA is crossing upwards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages are turning upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

MACD shows a bearish divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI left the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards the 104.00 level. Should the price fixate over that level and the upward trajectory will be continued to 104.50. However, the USD/JPY pair is overbought and may pull back a little. In this scenario, sellers will drag the price down below 103.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

A positive Chinese Manufacturing PMI supported the AUD/USD pair in the Asian session on Tuesday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD was able to erase some of its losses in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, when sellers returned in the European session they dragged the price down. The AUD was able to recover in the American session on the back of the weaker-than-expected U.S statistics. The resistance is at 0.7540, the support comes in at 0.7470.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages are moving downwards. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is trending towards the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the AUD/USD remains below 0.7540 the price may test 0.7470. Controversially, the instrument will grow to the 0.7570 region.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold futures traded close to the 2-month lows as traders took wait and see position before the NFP report.

Current situation

The US currency took control of the flows. The gold remained under pressure on Tuesday’s trades. Sellers were able to push the price lower on Tuesday. The new session lows are marked in the 1300 region. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept trending lower which is a sell signal. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300 per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading towards the overbought territory.

Trading recommendations

Technically, a bearish tone persists in the 4 hours chart. The XAU/USD remains focused on a potential test of 1300. In case of a correction, buyers may push the price to 1316 per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Brent kept falling after a rise in U.S. crude inventories. Moreover, traders focused their attention on a world supply glut which keeps weighing on the oil prices.

Current situation

The crude oil futures are under pressure. Sellers pushed the price from the session high at 47.23 below the support at 46.50. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel.

The price broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is moving down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards .

MACD and RSI are negative which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We believe that Brent can advance further below 46.50. However, the instrument is oversold and it may pull back a little. The price will continue a downtrend if it consolidates below 46.50. Alternatively, buyers can push the price towards the 47.00 region.



Nasdaq

Current situation

The index pulled back a little from the weekly highs. The price moved away from the 4800 level and approached the mark 4740. The instrument pulled back from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA is pointing upwards. The resistance is seen at 4770, the support lies at 4740.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the downward pressure persists Nasdaq will decrease to the 4750 region where it can pull back to 4800.



S&P 500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday due to negative Manufacturing PMI and negative crude oil dynamics.

Current situation

The technical picture presents a bearish tone. The price decreased from the weekly highs at 2180. S&P500 broke downwards the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Sellers can take control over the market if the price consolidates below 2165. Otherwise, buyers will return the instrument upwards.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.09.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar weakened after U.S payrolls report. Non Farm Payrolls slowed down in August and the Fed may postpone the rate hike due to the weak labour market report.

Current situation

The pair showed volatile trades on Friday. The euro suffered an increased buying pressure right after the Non-farm Payrolls release. Buyers pushed the price from the mark 1.1190 towards the resistance 1.1270 where the euro bullish spike faded and the pair dropped back to the opening price level. The pair closed bearish on Friday. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

The EUR/USD pair is below 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages generate a sell signal.

The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair looks increasingly bearish now. A move below 1.1130 will strengthen sellers’ positions. If the EUR/USD consolidates over 1.1270 the upward movement may continue towards 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

Construction PMI in the UK supported the pound which stayed close to the monthly highs.

Current situation

The price rallied due to the weak unemployment data in the USA. The sterling accelerated its advance and approached the level 1.3360 on Friday. The pair set a new monthly high at 1.3350 on Friday. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. The GBP/USD pair headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards after the price.

The indicators are within positive territory and support an upward extension. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area now.

Trading recommendations

The bullish views are getting more popular now. The pound will continue its growth if it breaks the current resistance 1.3360. Alternatively, the price will decrease to 1.3200.



Yen

General overview

The yen softened on the back of US monthly jobs report.

Current situation

USD/JPY briefly dropped below the 103.50 level and hit fresh 2-day lows right after US NFP report. The price hit 2-day low and attracted buying interest, as a result the price came back to the opening price level and then returned to a growth. The resistance is at 104.50, the support comes in at 103.50.

The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart which present a strong bullish slope. The moving averages accelerated their growth on Friday.

MACD is in the positive area. RSI approached the overbought territory. The indicators generate a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The resistance 104.50 is the main buyers’ target right now. Sellers may regain some control if they manage to push the price below 103.50.



NZD/USD

General overview

A weaker-than-expected Non-Farm payrolls report lowered the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September.

Current situation

The NZD/USD returned to a decrease on Friday. The price spiked immediately after the U.S labor market report to a fresh weekly high. The bullish spike quickly faded and the NZD headed towards the support 0.7250. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The price is approaching the 50-EMA which acts as a support now. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the NZD/USD remains above 0.7250 the price may test 0.7320 again. Controversially, the instrument will drop below 0.7250.



XAUUSD

General overview

XAU/USD grew due to risk aversion on the back of a weak US labour market report.

Current situation

Gold rallied on Friday. The yellow metal gained about 0.85% by the end of the trades. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 per ounce.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading towards the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A break above the 1330 resistance would switch the market tone to bullish. Should the XAU/USD break the resistance level and the price will grow to 1340. Controversially, gold futures will fall below 1316.



Brent

General overview

Crude oil Brent got under pressure when skepticism of crude oil output freeze by the OPEC members grew in the market.

Current situation

The price bounced off the support 45.30 on Friday. Buyers were able to push the price above the resistance 46.50. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The price broke the 200-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning around, 100-EMA is moving upwards, the 200-EMA is neutral.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the price returns below 46.50 (the 200-EMA) the instrument will continue its downward trajectory. Alternatively, Brent shall grow towards 47.50.



Dax

General overview

European stocks grew when U.S. jobs growth appeared to be weaker than expected in August.

Current situation

Dax jumped to a fresh weekly high of 10731 after the Non Farm payroll report. The price broke upwards the 50 and 100 EMAs. The moving averages are moving upwards which is a buy signal. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520.

MACD is in the positive area. RSI approached the overbought area. The indicators generate a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the resistance 10700 the index can grow to the August high at 10802. Otherwise, DAX will fall to the support 10520.



S&P 500

General overview

Wall Street closed higher last week. We believe traders will digest the weaker-than-expected payrolls report today.

Current situation

S&P500 strengthened and closed Friday bullish. The index advanced north and set a new weekly high at 2183. The instrument broke the 50 and 200 EMAs and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is moving towards the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Should the price break the resistance 2180 and buyers will lead the price to the level 2190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.09.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD strengthened on the back of the weak dollar after disappointing Non Farm Payroll report. The USA market was closed due to Labour Day.

Current situation

The pair was low volatile on Monday. The euro moved upwards in the Asian session. Then sellers were able to push the price lower in the European and North American sessions. The price remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130.

MACD shows divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is heading towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the downward pressure persists the pair will get below 1.1130. In this scenario, sellers’ next target will be the mark 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew due to better-than-expected Service PMI and due to the weakness of the dollar.

Current situation

The pound rallied and tested the level 1.3360 on Monday. The sterling was able to set a daily high at 1.3372. After reaching the level 1.3360 the pair slightly rolled back and erased some of its gains. The GBP/USD hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200.

MACD shows convergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

We will place buy orders if the GBP/USD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.3360. If the pair gets below 1.3270 the price may reach 1.3200.



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY softened on Monday’s trades. The dollar is still under pressure after weaker-than-expected Non Farm Payrolls report. Moreover, the US market was close due to Labor Day celebration.

Current situation

The pair erased some of its previous gains on Monday. The price decreased from last week highs at 104.30 to the 103.50 region. The instrument remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA broke the 100-EMA and approached the 200-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50.

MACD formed a divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI left the overbought area, but remained within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

A break below 102.50 risks a decline back towards the support 101.40. If the USD/JPY returns above 103.50 the instrument may grow to 104.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD grew on the back of strong Company Gross Operating Profits report.

Current situation

The AUD/USD grew at the open on Monday. Buyers led the price to the level 0.7600 where the pair turned around and slightly decreased. The instrument tested the 100-EMA and remained above the line. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540.

MACD indicator is close to the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD remains in the positive area buyers will keep control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the AUD/USD remains below 0.7600 the price may fall to 0.7540. Controversially, the instrument will grow to 0.7600.



XAUUSD

General overview

The Gold remained close to the weekly high as disappointing US labor report diminished expectations for another rate hike in 2016.

Current situation

XAU/USD traded close to the weekly high on Monday. The price was at the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 per ounce.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The pair will presume its upward trend if it breaks the resistance 1330. If the instrument gets below 1316 sellers will lead the price to 1300.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices grew after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will cooperate to support the market.

Current situation

Brent showed volatile trades on Monday. First, it jumped to the monthly peaks and set a new high at 49.50. Then, the price turned around and sharply fell below 47.50. The price returned some of its losses and slightly grew during North American hours. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The price is between the 50 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA in the same timeframe.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the price returns above 48.50 the Brent futures will continue its uptrend. Alternatively, Brent will decrease below 46.50.



Dax

General overview

European stocks traded higher on Monday as markets digested Friday's disappointing U.S employment report.

Current situation

DAX traded close to the recent highs and spent the day in the 10700 region. The price slightly grew above previous week’s top in the European session and decreased in the American one. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520.

MACD is in the positive area. RSI is close to the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The index may decrease to 10520 soon. If the price breaks the level the downward movement may continue to 10350. Controversially, the instrument will grow above 10700.



S&P 500

General overview

Wall Street was closed on Monday due to Labor Day celebration.

Current situation

S&P500 slightly changed on Monday. The price stayed at previous week’s high and slightly decreased by the end of the trades. The instrument broke the 100-EMA and touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is breaking the 100-EMA downwards. All moving averages are moving downwards. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165.

MACD is in the positive area. RSI bounced from the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will start as soon, as the index rises above the resistance level 2180. S&P500 may drift below 2165 to test 2150 support area.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman