"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the major currencies on Friday. The news flow was poor still we shall highlight a number of USA statistics: Producer Price Index (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%) and Retail Sales report (1,3% vs. expectations 0,8%).

The EUR/USD remained under pressure after the latest Eurozone releases. Germany and the Eurozone published their GDP reports for the 1st quarter (the 2nd assessment). German GDP came in worse than it was expected (1,3% vs. expectations 1,5%). No one expected any change in the Eurozone GDP. However, because of the weak industrial production in Germany and the Eurozone its GDP estimate was worse than expected. (1,5% vs. expectations 1,6%).

The UK did not publish any important news on Friday. The dollar was stable against the pound, as a result the GBP / USD kept decreasing.

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) the Central Bank will do its best to achieve its target (inflation level below 2%). The regulator has enough options to stimulate the economic growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

German GDP grew by 0,7% from January to March after increasing by 0,3% in the last three months of 2015. The indicator was above the average forecast. Analysts expected a growth of 0,6%. In annual terms, the economy grew by 1,3%.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

No important news were published in Britain. The pair was trading under the influence of the American news background. The USA published Retail Sales for April (1,3% vs. expectations -0,8%). Consumer Sentiment Index from Michigan University was expected slightly worse than the forecasts (95.8 vs. expectations 90.0). Another factor that pressured the pair GBP / USD was the oil prices.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Service sector activity in Japan fell more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index (seasonally corrected) showed -0,7% compared with -0,1% in the previous month. Experts expected a decline to -0,2%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 108.20 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



Franc

General overview

The USA data influenced the pair. The United States published a large package of important reports: the Producer Price index for April (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9660. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9940.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9940.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Tuesday turned out to be full with economic news. The US statistics was the main driver of the day. The States published the Core Consumer Price Index (0,2% that coincided with the forecast) and Industrial Production (0,7% vs. forecasted 0,3%) reports. Williams and Lockhart (the Federal Reserve members) gave their speeches. Williams supported the idea to raise the rates two or three times this year. According to Lockhart they do not plan the negative rates scenario.

The Eurozone just published their positive Trade Balance for March (28.6B vs. forecast 22.5B).

The pound reduced its gains against the dollar, when the inflation in the UK slowed in April for the first time since September 2015. Retail Price Index increased by 0,3% y/y, after growing by 0,5% in March. Traders expected the inflation to remain at 0,5%, but the British inflation has been below the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

The Japanese Industrial Production sharply accelerated in March (3,8% vs. previous 3,6%). Capacity Utilization increased from -5,4% to 3,2% in March, still these figures could not help the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes publication was the main event of Wednesday. Traders expected positive comments and hints regarding the possible rate hike. According to the minutes most of the fed members believe that the regulator can hike the rate in June if the economy state allows. After the minutes publications the dollar strengthened all over the market.

The Eurozone published the inflation report. The consumer price inflation in the Euro area remained unchanged at - 0.2%.

The pound was supported by the latest poll regarding the upcoming referendum. According to the poll: the number of British people who support staying in the EU are 8% more than those who want to leave. The UK published Unemployment Rate (remained at 5.1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2.0% vs. expectations 1.7%) and Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. previous 14.7K).

The Yen was supported by the news that the Japanese economy is developing at the fastest pace in the first quarter. Still the Japanese currency lost its gains due to investors' expection that the government new measures will stimulate the economy growth.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday, due to expectations that the Fed would hike the rates. The Euro area published CPI for April (0,2% vs. expectations -0,2%).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1040.



Pound

General overview

England published unemployment data: Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. forecast 4.0K), Unemployment rate remained unchanged (5,1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2,0% vs. expectations 1,7%).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 strengthened (+ 0,4% vs. forecast 0,1%). The GDP grew by 1,7% during the first quarter (on an annual basis). Hopes that the Bank of Japan will soften the monetary policy further significantly decreased amid the improved statistics in Japan and the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was traded at a seven-week high against the basket of major currencies. The dollar grew when the April Fed meeting minutes showed that the interest rates could rise as early as the next month. The US published weekly initial jobless claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). William Dudley (the Fed representative) gave his speech by the end of the trading day. According to Dudley if the economy corresponds to the forecast the regulator shall hike the rate in June or July.

The Central Bank of the European Union published its last meeting minutes. According to the minutes the Central Bank may use any instruments to rise the inflation, as long as they are effective.

The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar when the volume of the UK retail sales rose in April. The volume grew despite a sharp fall of clothing sales, which could be due to off-season weather.

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen. The pair USD / JPY grew against the correction on the Japanese equity markets and after the FOMC minutes publication. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds market the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The ECB published its protocols. The published ECB minutes could not support the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1040. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1040 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The volume of Retail Sales in the UK rose last month more than expected. (1,3% vs. expectations 0,5%) Analysts expected the index to rise by 0,5% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders rose more than expected (5,5% vs. previous -9,2%). The 2-year Treasury bonds yield reached the highest level since March.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss investors' attention was directed to the United States statistics amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). The USA published Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (-1.8 vs. forecast 3.5).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar is trading at seven-week highs against other majors. The expectations regarding the possible interest rate hike in the US significantly supported the US currency. Positive economic statistics from the US could lead to the monetary policy tightening in the upcoming months.

The ECB representatives made several important statements in the last weeks about the Central Bank policy in the upcoming months. According to Vitor Constancio (Vice-President of ECB) the Bank continues to stimulate the economy in spite of the growth of the inflation in the euro area. The Bank expects the inflation to reach the level of 2% in 2016.

The pound became optimistic when the last polls showed that the majority of people would vote to remain in the EU. The referendum is scheduled for June 23.

The dollar reached a three-week peak in the pair USD/JPY. The weakness of the US Bonds market supported the Japanese currency as the safe asset.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Producer price index – PPI in Germany rose less than expected last month.( 0.1% m/m vs. previous 0.0%).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1200 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Investors positively accepted the new survey data regarding Brexit (from ComRes/ITV ). According to the poll: 52% of UK people would vote against Brexit which supported the pound. The UK published Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (-8 vs. forecast -13).
The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span lines. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen line is directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the GBP/USD fixates below 1.4400 it shall decrease to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

American and Japanese 10 year government bonds yield differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. On the other hand the pressure in the Bonds market supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40. The decrease targets are 109.80 and 109.00



Franc

General overview

Switzerland published retail sales for April (1.1% vs. previous -3.1%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9900, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0000.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened when the latest Fed meeting showed that the interest rate may be raised as early as June. The United States did not publish any important report and all investors' attention was directed to Bullard and Williams’ speeches (the FOMC members). According to Bullard the regulator has more reasons to change the rates than to keep the soft policy. According to Williams the financial stability speaks in favor of a rate hike.

The euro fell to a session low when Markit PMI Composite slowed down in May (52.9 vs. expectations 53.2). The index fell despite the steady growth in Germany and France, as other regions showed a decline.

The UK did not publish important news on Monday.

The dollar fell against the yen on Monday amid Tokyo stock market falling. The Japanese trade surplus in April was significantly above our expectations. Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined in May (47.6 vs. previous 48.2). The index declined at the fastest pace in the last three years due to new orders decrease. The data came after the G7 meeting on Saturday, where the US again warned Tokyo about the negative consequences of intervening to weaken the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a five-month high in May (52.4 vs. previous 51.8, expectations 52.0). Services PMI in Germany rose to a three-month high (55.2 vs. expectations 54.6).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, Britain did not publish important fundamental reports. According to Bonds market the British currency grew strongly: government bonds yield differential (the US and UK) expanded to the highest level in the last month and a half.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Japan published Trade Balance for April (823.5 B vs. expectations 492.8B). Japan has been showing a positive trade balance for the third month in a row. The 10-year government bonds (the United States and Japan) expanded close to the mark of 200 bp, which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the dollar rose to the two-month high against other majors, due to the expectations of the rate hike by the Fed in June. The possible rate hike continued to be a driver for the US currency.

The euro continued to decline when Germany published weak economic sentiment (6.4 vs. previous 11.2). The sentiment worsened amid concerns about the global economy prospects.

The pound strengthened against the dollar when a new poll showed that 55% of Britons supported staying in the EU vs. 42% leaving the EU.

The yen weakened after Taro Aso's statement (Japanese Finance Minister). According to Taro they need to stimulate the economy further if they want to raise the sales tax in April 2017.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the 10-years German government bonds yield grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute) was the focus of our attention. The index sharply fell which weakened the euro (6.4 vs. expectations 12.0).

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The strong support level of 1.1200 break was followed by the pair decrease. If it breaks 1.1130 down it will open the way to the level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The parliamentary hearings on inflation in the UK were the main event in the country. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK rose by 5 basis points since the last meeting of the Bank. However, the referendum on membership in EU bears some risk for the country economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.4670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The USA published New Home Sales Change for April (16,6% vs. previous -1,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 110.60 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday the dollar remained at two-month high against other major currencies. Expectations that the US might raise the base rate in June provided a significant support to the dollar.

Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and unlocked a new tranche in the amount of €10 billion. The agreement eased the concerns over a possible new debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Although no important news were published in the country, the pound kept growing. The only topic that drives the pound is the upcoming referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Britons who prefer to remain in the EU grew. The poll results have been supporting the pound for the second day in a roll.

The dollar showed a growth against the yen. Japanese macroeconomic calendar was empty. The pair was under the influence of technical factors. According to Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) the country economy continued to recover moderately amid the soft policy of the Central Bank.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Business Climate in Germany grew in May to its highest level in five months. (107.7 vs. expectations 106.. The published data showed that the largest economy in the Eurozone is getting better.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The pound is approaching its high of the week due to reduced uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Brexit opponents is 55% vs. 42% who want to exit the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4760 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4880.



Yen

General overview

There is 60% possibility that the FOMC will raise the interest rates on June 15th. The positive statistics from the United States supported the10-years government bonds (US and Japan) which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movementб forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 110.60, 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened its positions amid positive economic reports. According to the latest Fed comments, the US regulator may raise the rates at its meeting in June. In economic news, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims number (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The Eurozone agreement with Greece supported the euro. Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and shall receive a new tranche of loans (10 billion euro).

The second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the UK confirmed that the British economic recovery slowed down. The economy grew by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The British economy faced problems with a weakened growth in emerging markets, especially in China. The upcoming referendum slowed the growth as well.

The dollar remains near in a range waiting for J. Yellen’s speech. The market expects clues from the regulator regarding the possible rate hike in June. The yen grew and deprived the dollar from its latest gains. The Japanese currency growth forced investors to close positions before any potential risk event.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The growing "risk appetite" in the world put pressure on the safe assets, such as the single European currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1250 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1300.



Pound

General overview

The revised GDP data for the first quarter was the main event in the UK. The index remained at the same level at 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4560, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen stopped to grow on Thursday. Earlier it increased as corporate services price index rose. Corporate Service Price index rose by 0,2% year on year, as expected. The USA published Durable Goods Orders (0,4% vs. expectations 0,3%) and Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00, the next one is 108.20.



Franc

General overview

Yesterday investors' attention was directed to the weekly US labor market report – Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K). Switzerland published Industrial Production (-2,2% vs. previous -7,4%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.05.2016


Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen (the Fed Chairman) gave her speech. According to Janet Yellen the regulator might hike the rates in the upcoming months if the USA economy keeps steadily growing. Yellen’s speech supported the dollar.

Current situation

The pair was correcting the whole previous week. Still the level of 1.1200 did not let it further. After a short consolidation near the level of 1.1200 the pair returned to a decrease. The support is at the level of 1.1070, the resistance lies at 1.1130.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

After J.Yellen’s speech the dollar received a support. We forecast a decrease deep further to the levels of 1.1070 and 1.1000. As the pair is oversold we do not exclude a correction up to 1.1200 where there is a pivot point and the EUR/USD may turn down.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK decreased. The UK published Consumer Confidence index (-1 vs. previous -3).

Current situation

The GBP/USD strengthened last week and grew above the supports 1.4560 and 1.4670. Still the pair failed to remain near its new month high. The pound fell and broke the mark 1.4670. The support is at the level of 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The indicator kept decreasing. The histogram is below the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

National Consumer Price Index remained unchanged contrary to expectations. (-0,3% vs. expectations -0.4%).

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY made growth attempts. Still a strong resistance 110.60 did not let the pair to reach new high. The pair was in a range the second part of the week. Still it managed to grow to 110.60 before the trading week end. The resistance is at 109.80, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



Franc

General overview

Employment Level index in Switzerland decreased in the last quarter. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the index (seasonally corrected) showed 4,880M vs. previous 4,897M.

Current situation

The USD/CHF was in a range 0.9850-0.9940 last week. The pair could grow to 0.9940, but did not break it. The pair corrected downwards to 0.9850 where it turned upwards again. The Janet Yellen’s speech supported the dollar and the pair grew and touched 0.9940. The support comes in at 0.9850, the resistance lies 0.9940.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 0.9940 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.0020.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman