"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar is still under pressure. In general, traders continued to get rid of the American currency after the recent soft comments by Janet Yellen who did not exclude a return to the economy stimulus. The NFP became one of the main events last week. The indicator showed 215,000, the forecast was 205,000, after a growth by 242,000 in February. The USA also published Unemployment Rate for March that came in at the level of 5.0%. The previous value was 4.9%, m / m, the forecast was 4.9%.

German Retail Sales report was a contradictory one. Even though it showed a drop of 0.4% on a monthly basis, it grew on annual basis by 5.4%. Unemployment Rate in Germany in March remained unchanged- 6.2%. Unemployment Change came in at 0. Manufacturing PMI in Germany for March showed 50.7 with a forecast of 50.4. Consumer Price Index in the European Union lost 0.1% in annual terms, which point out the presence of deflation in the European Region. Despite a mixed macroeconomic statistics from the EU, investors interpreted it as a positive sign. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a slight growth.

The United Kingdom published the Manufacturing PMI for March that came in at the level of 51.0 (the previous value was 50.8, the forecast was 51.3). The pair pound/dollar decreased.

Japan published the Tankan Non - Manufacturing index for the 1st quarter: the index fell to 22 from 25. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the 1st quarter showed a decrease from 12 to 6. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published Manufacturing Sector PMI for March at the level of 51.6. The forecast was 51.4. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 10.3%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP rose by 7.4% since the beginning of 2016 which increased the competitiveness of British goods in the Europe. The government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the US and Germany) which also played into the hands of bulls. However by the end of the week the sterling sharply fell against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 1.4240 and 1.4320. If the price falls it will get to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Japan published several business activity indexes and none of them came in positive and reached the predicted values. However, the investors were not confused and started a wave of the Japanese yen buying. The dollar fell against the yen when the China's manufacturing data increased the market sentiment, while investors awaited the Non-Farm release in the US.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 110.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

Switzerland published business PMI for March. The report showed a growth from 51.6 to 53.2. The retail sales for February showed -0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

According to the US labor market report published last week, the Non-Farm increased by 215 000 in March (the forecast was 205 000). The Average Hourly Earnings grew to 0.3% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier. The overall picture was somewhat blurred by the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.9% to 5.0%. The dollar generally remained under pressure after Yellen’s recent soft comments.

Unemployment Rate in the Euro area fell to a new multi-year low in February, but remained high considering the current economic problems in the region. Eurozone unemployment rate was 10.3% – the lowest since August 2011. The pair euro/dollar is trading in a flat.

The UK published PMI Construction report which remained at the previous level of 54.2, while the forecast was 54.0. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The Japanese Yen moved upwards on Monday. Investors sluggishly reacted to the US labor market reports and Manufacturing PMI. On the other hand the risk appetite increase was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. However by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets, as well as favorable statistics from the Eurozone supported the euro. The manufacturing PMI in Germany for March exceeded traders’ expectations. The index reached 50.7 and 51.6 against the forecasts of 50.4 and 51.4. On the other hand the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP in Q4 was revised upward amid the Construction Sector growth. The business activity index came out more than expected – 54.2 against the forecast of 54.0. The growth of the pair was limited by fears regarding Brexit. The market could not ignore the potential demand on the oil market. The oil price has an influence on the pair GBP/USD movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4240 and 1.4160. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The US economy created 632 000 new jobs in the first quarter that is by 10.8% more than the year before. The quarterly growth has been the highest since 2013. On the other hand, the average wage increased by 0.28% m/m which would help the consumer spending to grow and would increase the inflationary pressures.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 110.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 109.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained under pressure. Yesterday's trading was ambiguous amid a contradictory of stock indexes and oil prices dynamics. USA weak data did not help the dollar as well. New York ISM index fell from the level of 53.6 to 50.4 vs. the forecast of 54.1.

Rosengren's speech (the Fed representative) slightly supported the dollar. According to Rosengren the regulator may need more than one rate hike. The United States published Non-Manufacturing PMI for March at the level of 54.5 (the previous value was 53.4, the forecast was 54.0).

The German government bonds decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The United Kingdom published Service PMI for March. The index grew to 53.7 from the previous 52.7, in line with expectations. The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew which supported the British currency. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) said on Tuesday that the monetary policy alone could not solve all the problems. The dollar/yen continued to decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro was sold off amid the weak data from the euro zone and the dovish comments by the ECB speaker. Praet (the ECB representative) pointed to the risks of keeping a low inflation for a long time. Praet’s performance also put pressure on the single currency. However the pair was trading in a flat. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed 53.1 vs. the forecast of 54.0.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The pair pound/dollar sharply fell. Earlier the pound strengthened amid a strong construction PMI report. The indicator remained at 54.2 vs. the forecast of 54.0. The EURGBP additionally supported the pound. The recent macroeconomic data helped the pound to ignore a possible threat of losing the current rate after the Brexit.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar/yen kept falling. Oil prices falling became a catalyst for the decrease. The oil further decrease is high, because the lack of possibility of any production freeze the near future. The investment outflow from Japan may weaken the yen further, still it is not very large as the financial year barely began in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 109.80, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a pessimistic statement by Lagarde (the head of IMF) regarding the growing risks for the global economy. The Federal Reserve latest comments talked about low expectations regarding the interest rate. Finally the oil price decreased. All of these factors together were the main drivers for the risk escape, and against this background the dollar tried to recover. The Fed minutes publication became the main event of Wednesday. Some traders are afraid that the rate hike in April will show undue urgency. Also there were different opinions about the possibility of interest rates hike in April.

The market reaction to the positive USA reports was weak. We noticed the growing optimism in the bonds market. German 10-year government bonds yield kept growing, which made European assets more attractive for investments. Germany revealed Industrial Production for February. The index came in at -0.5% versus the previous data of 2.3% and the forecast of -1.8%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Service PMI grew both in the USA and the UK. Both indexes grew in comparison to February still the USA PMI growth rate was higher. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The USD/JPY completely ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and negative reports from Japan. The pair kept on following the dynamics of the stock markets, especially the Japanese one. The pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Service PMI in the Eurozone pressured the euro. The index fell to 53,1 from the previous value of 54,0, analytics expected the index to remain unchanged. The news that OECD lowered its forecasts regarding the German GBP growth in 2016 and 2017 pressured the euro as well. Even though the euro fell amid the mixed economic data it managed to recover some of it losses by the end of the day.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The Sterling strengthened by the end of the trades. Earlier the main drivers for the pair sales were: an escape from risks, oil prices decrease and weak Service PMI in the country. The index grew from 52.7 to 53.7 in March when the market expected the growth to 54,0. The bearish movement was obvious in the Bonds Market as well, which caused the UK 10-year government bonds yield to decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The decrease of risk appetite is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency. The Bonds Market supported bears as well. The USA and Japanese government bonds yield differential decreased, which contributed to the inflow of capital into the Japanese assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market fell in the middle of the week amid Industrial Production weak report. The index lost 0.5%, the forecast was 1.8%. The published Fed minutes confirmed Yellen’s words regarding the external risks and slowing down with the rate hike. The market lowered its expectations to 46.5% that the Fed would hike the rate in September. At the same time the market gives 50% that the rate hike will happen in November and 52.5% that in December.

The ECB minutes publication and Mario Draghi’s performance became the main events of Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims showed 267K with the forecast of 270K. Consumer Credit Change showed $17,22B with the forecast of 14.74B

The UK published House Prices report for March. The housing prices rose by 10.1%. Economists expected that the growth rate slightly would weaken to 9.5%. The housing prices rose by 2.6% in monthly terms. Analysts expected the prices to grow only by 0.7%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Mario Draghi’s performance became the main event of Thursday. The euro strengthened against the dollar by 4.6% in the first quarter. That was a negative factor for exports and inflation. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for April. The Index showed 267K (the previous value was 276K; the forecast was 271K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The bonds market was against the British assets yesterday. The UK government bonds yields decreased. House Prices Index in the UK rose more than expected, reaching 2.6% compared with -1.5% in the previous month. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month by 0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The yen freshed 18-month highs when Tokyo shares fell and at the same time the oil prices grew. The demand for safe-haven assets helped to strengthen the yen as well. According to Haruhito Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, the Central Bank will take further action to soften the monetary policy if necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 108.00 and 107.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Based on the Fed minutes, the Central Bank is unlikely to hike the interest rates until June amid the concerns about the global economic growth. The Fed minutes pressured the dollar, still it could show a short-term growth after Janet Yellen’s speech. According to Janet Yellen the rate hike is still part of the regulator’s plans for this year.

The fact that the European Central Bank confirmed its readiness to stimulate the economy if necessary weakened the euro. However by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

In economic news, the weak economic reports in the UK did not support the pound which stopped growing against the US dollar. At the same time the dollar remained fragile due to the Fed cautious position regarding the rates hike. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen growth was stopped by The Bonds Market growth as well as the possible intervention by the Japanese Central Bank. In addition, the Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B compared with 520.8B in the previous month. Nevertheless the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. German exports increased by 1.3% after falling by 0.6 percent in January. At the same time, import growth slowed in Germany to 0.4% from 1.3% a month earlier.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The weak macroeconomic statistics upset the UK investors. Manufacturing Production for February fell due to the seasonal correction reaching 1.1%, and that was much higher than the forecast 0.2%. In addition the Britain Trade Balance Deficit decreased to 11.96 billion pounds in February from 12.16 billion pounds in January.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4080 and 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Taro Aso’s speech (the Minister of Finance of Japan) was the key event in Japan. The Minister was concerned about the recent Japanese yen strengthening. The high Trade Balance and the profits from touristic business helped Japanese Current Account to grow. The Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B from the previous value of 520.8B.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 107.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 106.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss Consumer Prices on annual basis continued to decline in March. The index fell by 0.9% compared with a year earlier. The Consumer Prices on monthly basis has been growing for the second month in a row. The prices rose by 0.3% as expected in March, compared with the growth of 0.2% in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Cautious statements by William Dudley (the Fed representative) pressured the US currency. Dudley called for a cautious and gradual approach towards the interest rate hike.

No important news were published on Monday. Traders focused their attention on the Bonds Market dynamics which sent strong "bearish" signals: the 10-year German government bonds yield fell. The pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

The UK published some macroeconomic data, the weak data did not allow the bulls to return to the market. The industrial production volume for February decreased by 0.3%, in addition the index recorded a decrease of 0.1% for the first two months of the year. The same index in the USA for the same period showed an increase by 0.1%. Although the difference was small, still it was not in favor of the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD strengthened.

Bearish sentiment within the USDJPY is very strong. The trading is defined by "risk appetite". The pair closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Earlier the published Trade Balance in Germany for February supported the euro. The index grew to 19.8B Euros from 18.7B. Imports and exports increased by 0.4% and 1.3% vs. the forecast of -0, 3% and + 0.5% respectively.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

Investors planned to update the March maximum of oil prices that will have a positive impact on the pound. Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the UK government bond yields grew.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4160 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4080 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar got under pressure after Fed of in Atlanta and J.P Morgan Bank forecasts publication. The first one downgraded the forecast for the US economic growth to + 0.1%. Meanwhile, Morgan Bank revised its forecast to + 0.2% from + 0.7%. These forecasts pressured the dollar. Risky assets sales once again supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 107.40 and 106.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The bullish sentiment in the commodity market had a negative impact on the dollar, due to the cost decrease of raw materials which is in the US currency. The oil and base metals confidently finished the first part of the week in the "green zone". Only by the end of the trades the dollar slightly strengthened.

The US and German government bonds yields differential decreased which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. On the other hand, the growth of pessimism in the world leading stock markets also played into the hands of the bulls (because the euro is one of the funding currencies). However the pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK inflation report became the main event of Tuesday. The gasoline prices growth and the average weekly earnings increase had its positive impact on the British bonds market. The 10-year government bonds yield increased by 8 bp. The UK consumer price index for March rose by 0.5% y/y that was the maximum value since December, 2014. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a slight growth.

Japan and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics. The pair USD/JPY showed an upward correction.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the inflation in Germany for March accelerated its growth, the Producer Price index was below the ECB target level. The consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.8%, the index rose by 0.1% over the year. Low rates of inflation in the Euro area forced the ECB to take additional measures to bring the inflation rate up to 2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The consumer price index in Britain rose by 0.5% y/y. According to Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) they need to accelerate the pace of wage growth and take the inflation to the target level of 2% before any rate increase. We believe that the Bank of England will keep the rates unchanged until the referendum in June. Uncertainty about the referendum results will slow down the economic growth for the next few months.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4240, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen its positions. Haruhiko Kuroda (the Bank of Japan Governor) announced his intention to launch additional measures. However, the yen continues to ignore any authorities attempts to pressure the currency. In the US, declared on import and export price indices (0,2% m/m and 0,0% m/m against the forecasted 1,0% m/m и -0,2% m/m correspondingly).

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 108.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued its attempts to recover. The latest Fed hawkish statements supported the dollar. In particular, Jeffrey Lacker (the Fed representative) said that the Fed is still planning four rates hike in 2016. The US currency got an additional support when the Fitch agency confirmed the US rating at AAA.

Retail Sales (in fact -0,3%m/m against the forecasted 0,1%m/m and previous -0,1% m/m) and the Producer Price index (in fact -0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m and previous -0,2%m/m) for March became the main events of Wednesday.

The inflation data in Germany did not have any impact on the quotations. In March, the Consumer Price index remained at + 0.8% m/m and + 0.3% y/y. The growth of stock indices caused the euro sales. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK inflation positive report for March supported the positive trend in the Bonds Market. The yields differential on government bonds (the United States and the United Kingdom) have been reducing for the last three trading days. This news increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a decrease.

The 10-year government bonds yield (the US and Japanese) expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets providing support for the dollar in the pair USD/JPY. This pair showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The FED will hold its regular meeting on the monetary policy in late April. The more positive releases we get, the more chances we have that the monetary authorities will seriously talk about the rising interest rates in the medium term. On the other hand, the Eurozone revealed Industrial Production report which came out worse than expected: -0.8% m/m vs. the forecast of -0.7% m/m. Patrick Harker (the Philadelphia Fed Governor) did not exclude that the rates would be raised three times this year.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1260 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The positive UK statistics supported the pound. The inflation unexpectedly accelerated to + 0.4% m/m and + 0.5% y/y vs. the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.4% respectively. The commodity market dynamics also played into the bulls’ hands: oil and metals were in steady demand. Then the pair GBP/USD decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160 and 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

There were two factors that had pressured the yen: the yen could not resist the growth of Nikkei, and secondly, it fell after Japanese Ministry of Finance comments regarding the possible measures launching aimed at limiting the growth of the national currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar recovered against the most of its opponents. The positive Trade Balance in China heated the interest in the risky assets, mainly in the US currency. The USA published the Inflation data: 0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m. The Initial Jobless Claims showed 253К against the forecast of 270К.

The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) expanded in the bonds market. The Eurozone published the inflation data for March: CPI came in at + 1.2% m/m, that coincided with the forecast. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat after a decrease.

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged. The UK 10-year government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The interest in the yen faded amid the demand for the risky assets. A further verbal intervention made by the Bank of Japan, the regulator again hinted at the possible expansion of its economic measures. However by the end of the trades the dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The aggressive Fed statements as well as China positive export statistics supported the interest in the US currency. At the same time the euro fell amid the positive USA macroeconomic data and the negative statistics of the Eurozone. The Industrial Production in the region fell by 0.8% in February against a growth by 1.9% in January.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD started a correction after three days of an impressive growth. The Bank of England published its minutes and announced the interest rate decision (the rate was left at the same level). Brexit theme due to its uncertainty continued to pressure the currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments (the Bank of Japan Governor) restrained the growth of the yen. According to Haruhiko Kuroda the Central Bank is ready to soften the monetary policy if needed, having many stimulus instruments to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar significantly rose against the Swiss franc amid the stock indices strengthening and the increased interest in the risky assets. The weaker-than-expected data on US retail sales was not able to change investors’ sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman