"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market attention was focused on the US statistics. The third quarter final GDP data was expected not be revised downwards and would remain at the same level as it was noted in the second release. The strong labor market helped the private consumption to increase which is a welcome factor for the US economy. However the data came out at he level of 2% against the forecasted 1,9%. The secondary market home sales data can also be a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending volume was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates that the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out at the level of 4,47M against the forecasted 5,35%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The key factors point out to the downtrend continuation. Firstly, the US and the UK government bond yield are expanding which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and it will contribute to the dollar demand. Secondly, the Brent crude is now trading near the 11-year low which is also a positive factor for the US dollar as the raw materials cost denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD decreased by the en of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY declined again, having continued last Friday's decline, although at a slower pace. Initially, all Japanese economic sectors activity index report which grew by 1.0% after decline by 0.2% supported the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro area consumer confidence preliminary report, reflecting the indicator improvement to -5.7 from -5.9, supported the pair. The Bundesbank governor Weidman comments also supported the EUR/USD. The governor hopes the Eurozone economic recovery to accelerate next year. The Germany import prices report has been published (-0.2% m/m vs. -0.3% m/m) and the consumer confidence report showed 9.4 vs. 9.30.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The British currency is quite sensitive to the oil prices further decline, preventing the pair recovery even in conditions of the fading interest in the dollar purchases. Another negative factor was the British Industry Confederation retail trade report where the sales balance amounted to 19 against the expected 21, still it has grown significantly in comparison with the previous value of 7.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trading in a flat at the level of 1.4830 further on we expect a growth to 1.4900.



Yen

General overview

The US secondary market housing sales data can make a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending growth was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out less then forecasted median: 4,76M against 5,35M.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation between the levels of 120.40 and 121.30 will be continued now. Then we expect the level of 119.20 testing soon.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Despite the lack of the growth drivers the Euro has strengthened its position. The world leading stock markets have showed a corrective growth. The EUR/USD pair showed a growth amid the inflation and economic growth pessimistic expectations. The United States published a block of important macroeconomic statistics. The employment and the average earnings increase has caused the world largest economy consumer activity growth. Nevertheless the published releases disappointed the market. The durable goods base orders in November came out at the level of -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m), the new home sales in November came out at the level of 490K against the forecasted 505K. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly decreased.

The UK National Statistics Office published the third quarter payments balance. The pound revaluation against the euro contributed to the trade deficit increase as British goods reduced their competitiveness abroad. At the end of the third quarter the negative net exports amounted to 31.97 billion pounds which is 20.2% more than in the second quarter and is higher by 0.53% than in the same period of 2014. The seasonal factor also indicates the negative balance increase: capital outflows from the United Kingdom. The third quarter the UK GDP came in lower then it was forecasted: 0,4% (q/q) and 2,1% (y/y) against 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a slight decrease.

Japanese banks were closed on the occasion of the national holiday that caused the sluggish trade. The financial sector was the growth leader in the European and the North American stock markets as indicates the investors' risk appetite presence and thus put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The US GDP final data for the third quarter came out slightly better than the consensus forecast at the level of 2% which contributed to the US and Japanese government bond yields. A slight decrease was noted in the pair USD/JPY.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The Germany statistics has been showed that the consumer confidence index rose up to 9.4 against the forecast and the previous value at the level of 9.3. The November import prices report supported the euro. The US secondary housing market sales sharp decline has led to the dollar sales. However the dollar strengthened against the euro by the end of the trades on Wednesday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730.




Pound

General overview

The UK data pointed out to the net borrowing volume growth to £ 13.5 billion against the forecast of 11.0 billion and the previous value of 6.7 billion. The US GDP report has demonstrated the US currency vulnerability. The US second homes sales index was weak which has supported the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. Then we suppose the pair will go to 1.4900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4970.




Yen

General overview

The Japanese economic calendar was empty due to the public holiday. The market focused on the US durable goods basic orders and the new home sales data in November 490K against the forecasted 505K and -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m) respectively.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates it may go to the level 120.40. The way to the mark 119.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro ignored the negative background amid the increasing demand for the "risk assets" - the world leading stock markets showed growth from 2% to 4%. The US published the third quarter GDP moderately positive macroeconomic data, durable goods orders, personal consumption expenditure and the new buildings sales; however, it did not bring the desired dividends to the dollar. On Thursday the German banks were closed, the US trading session ended few hours earlier. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth. There were not any trades on Friday. The whole Western world celebrated Christmas, the most important holiday of the year.

The UK National statistics office revised the UK GDP second estimate for the third quarter from 0.5% to 0.4%. The economic growth rate has been 2.4% for the first nine months, compared to the same period last year. There was the UK clear economic slowdown. The construction and manufacturing sectors were the most vulnerable sectors which decreased by 1.93% and 0.22% respectively in the third quarter of this year. The US third quarter GDP growth also slowed down. Last year the UK was ahead the United States by 0.5% and this year it falls short by 0.1%. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness in the British assets. The commodity market prices stabilization is also plays into the "bulls" hands now. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The important macroeconomic releases that could act as a driver for the dollar or the yen have not been published. In general, the United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics, but investors have completely ignored the positive news background which indicates the lack of interest in the dollar. The BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed the Bank commitment to do what it was necessary to overcome the deflation, planning to achieve the 2% inflation target. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The number of the US initial jobless claims amounted to 267K while 270K was forecasted . The investors’ increased optimism put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Eurozone has not published any reports. The US favorable economic releases suggested the Fed monetary policy normalization possibility in case of the current trend preservation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The UK published a series of economic reports that have had an impact on the pound dynamics last week. The current deficit account narrowed to -17.460 billion pounds against the expected £ -21.500 in the third quarter which supported the currency. The negative GDP data have been revised downwards - to 0,4% q/q and 2,1% y/y from 0,5% and 2,3% respectively.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a ‘Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4970 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5040.



Yen

General overview

The yen was deprived with the growth drivers in the absence of interest to the risk-free assets. Interest in the dollar still prevailed amid the strong US data. Only by the end of the trades the situation changed and the pair dollar/yen fell.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 121.30 and 122.40.



Franc

General overview


After the disappointing economic statistics the dollar fell. The US capital goods orders, the private sector investments indicator showed a decline by 0.4% last month while the US capital goods orders showed a decline by 0.5% in November, the rate is taken into account for the quarterly economic growth calculation.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target - 0.9960. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.0100 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
29.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were traded without significant drivers. The pair EUR/USD showed the bullish sentiment on Monday. Last week, investors completely ignored the positive news flow on the US dollar which indicates the strong buyers presence. The important macroeconomic statistics is not expected before the NY and the bulls are trying to disperse the quotes up on less liquid markets. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The pound remained under pressure amid a general distancing prospects of the Bank of England rate hike. Traders expected it to happen in the first quarter of next year. However, the weak UK statistics brought some changes in the forecasts. The UK published the secondary housing market report - according to the BBA, the number of approved mortgage loans fell to 44,960 from 45,463 vs. 46,200 in the country. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The initial catalyst for the yen strengthening was the Kuroda's comments where he expressed confidence that the economy was on track to achieve the 2% target level of consumer prices. However, he made it clear that the regulator would continue to stay within the QQE framework. The pair dollar/yen showed a slight decrease amid this background.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US labor market strong data did not make much of an impression on prices. Last week, the initial claims number dropped to 267 thousand. from 272 thousand earlier. Traders expected 270 thousand. There were no important releases from the EU. The overseas economic releases show positive figures, the Fed may accelerate the monetary policy normalization if the current trend is continued.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price action is above the Cloud and is heading upwards. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. Ichimoku Cloud is neutral now.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair could escalate up to 1.1050. Alternatively, we expect the EUR/USD to fall to 1.0925.




Pound

General overview

There was a Boxing Day holiday on Monday in the UK. The Sterling recovered after the third quarter UK payment balance optimistic report. Last week the UK government bonds grew in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the Cable investment attractiveness and thereby support the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Technically, the main trend is down. The upcoming news won’t be able to drive the Forex pair lower. We see the level of 1.4970 as the first growth target if the pair keeps its north direction. Shall the pair return to a fall we shall see it at the level of 1.4830 soon.




Yen

General overview

Japan has published a series of statistical reports for November: the preliminary industrial production data came in at -1.0% m/m vs. 1.4% m/m (the forecast was 0.6%); the retail sales volume came in at -1.0% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y (the forecast was 0.6%).

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the decrease will be continued now. The targets are the levels 119.20 and 118.40. We do not exclude the growth to 120.40 and 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

We highlight the Conference Board consumer confidence report. The December Michigan University indicator showed growth against the strong labor market background, allowing to calculate the Conference Board positive data output. The data came out at the level of 96,5p. that is better then forecasted 93,0p.

The stock exchange showed some pessimism: the banking sector became the decline leaders. This factor supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The trade is still sluggish due to the low-liquid market. However the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

London bank reopened its doors for customers. Given the low liquidity and lack of important macroeconomic statistics, investors pay attention to the commodity market dynamics, especially in the "black gold". The Brent determines the Cable course of trading. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics once again upset the traders. The statistics showed a personal consumption decrease in November which is a negative factor for the economic growth. The industrial production decreased by 0.3%. However, the Old World and North America leading stock markets pessimism prevails that is a positive environment for safe assets which traditionally includes the Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY is trading in a flat.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB Mersch regulator's statements regarding the further monetary policy easing readiness, alongside with the deposit rates decrease did not cause noticeable reaction on the pair, as a matter of fact, the Speaker did not say anything new. In addition, the single currency was kept afloat by the flight from risky assets.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.1050 breakthrough the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0800.




Pound

General overview

The Cable finishes the year near the 7-month low. The Bank of England uncertain position regarding the interest rates hike is a downward movement driver for the Sterling. The Bank is still the "second in line" after the Fed, the time-limit when the Regulator may change the rates is moved significantly, given the weak inflationary pressures, sluggish wage growth, conflicting data on business activity and politicians' cautious statements.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4830 further on we expect a consolidation.




Yen

General overview

Many investors are already beginning to celebrate the New Year. Moreover, traditional holidays volatility is falling and we do not expect any important statistics till the end of the week.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now at the level of 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a mixed trend at the Forex market last trading week of the year, some pairs even showed an increased volatility in their trading. The dollar resumed its growth against its competitors, having received support from the positive sentiment in the stock markets as well as strong data from the US. In general, traders’ activity continued to fall on the eve of the New Year holidays.

The dollar purchases alongside with the stock markets positive sentiment and favorable statistics from the United States became the driver for the EUR/USD downward dynamics resumption. In particular, prices, contrary to the predictions, kept the growth rate of 5.5% and the consumer confidence in December jumped to 96.5 versus the expected 93.8 and the previous value of the index at 90.4. The recent figures again indicated that the US economy is in great shape and is ready to tighten monetary policy further even more rapid pace.

As for the pair GBPUSD, the pound decreased amid the Cable fundamental weakness due to the recent sharp deterioration of macroeconomic data (inflation slowdown, the GDP decline), which has taken away from the markets hope for a rate hike by the Bank of England next year. The pair pound/dollar slightly corrected upwards by the end of the trades.

The USDJPY showed the most restrained dynamics. The pair’s movement is limited by the resistance around 121.30 and the support at 120.40 area. However, even strong statistics from the United States was unable to revive the pair.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The German government bonds rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increases the investments attractiveness in European assets and thereby supports the demand for euro. Nevertheless, the euro slightly fell.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.0925 it may go to the level 1.0800.




Pound

General overview

We see a mixed background of the British currency. The 10-year UK government bonds decline relative to their US and Germany reduces the British assets attractiveness adding a downward pressure on the pound. The Cable situation is worst among the major currencies on the current US dollar corrective phase. The pound increased only by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will trade in a flat between the levels of 1.4760-1.4830.



Yen

General overview

The world's leading stock indices show a rising trend alongside with the high-yield cross-rates in the currency market. Such dynamics indicates growth "risk appetite" among investors which is traditionally a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.




Franc

General overview

The franc strengthened against its main rivals. According to forecasts the Switzerland GDP may increase by 1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The National Bank of Switzerland policy also has a huge impact the franc dynamics. The ongoing EUR/CHF intervention limits the franc growth as well.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8.

In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y и 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830.



Yen

General overview

Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion.

The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K.

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth.

The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen – it showed a slight decrease.

The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085М against the forecasted median 0,439М).

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.




Pound

General overview

The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy.

Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000).

The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease.

The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutes’ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman