"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone GDP third quarter data was published: 0,3% q/q and 1,6 y/y. The September household spending and industrial production reports came out negative. The unemployment rate fell to 0.3% in the period from July to September, but the positive macroeconomic effect will manifest itself with a time lag and the Old World economy will not get high dividends in the third quarter. The pair EUR/USD slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The UK October industrial production data was published. The Markit manufacturing sector business climate pointed to the positive output data. The PMI has reached the highest level for the last 16 months in October amid the industrial output growth. According to the Industrialists British Confederation, we should not count on the industrial production significant growth because of the industrial orders negative balance. The release showed a growth by 0,1% according to the forecasted median. However, the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The October current account transactions release pleased traders with the strong data. The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields have declined which increased the investments’ attractiveness in the Japanese assets. Traders were cutting "risky assets" positions supporting demand for the yen as a funding currency. The dollar/yen decreased by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has entered the correction phase for several days. In addition to the European stock market rally, the Germany industrial production weak data pressure the euro quotes. The November index rebounded to + 0.2% m/m, after a decline by 1.1%, but it did not meet market expectations at the level of + 0.7%. At the same time the annual value fell to 0.0% from 0.2%. The Sentix investors’ sentiment report disappointed the euro - the index was 15.7 against the expected 17.0 points.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The pair fell not only because of the dollar purchases, but also because of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speech who ultimately did not say any important market comments.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.4900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4970, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4900.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dynamics remains bearish. Japan pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. Initially, the yen was pressured by the Bank of Japan Kuroda comments who pointed to the QQE program effectiveness. He also promised to take further measures to ensure financial stability. Despite the dollar growth, the price growth was limited.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro zone GDP has not been revised for any changes - the third quarter growth was 0.3%. The real GDP has amounted to 7357.9 billion euros for the first nine months of this year which is 1.79% higher than in the same period in 2014. The Germany October trade balance report has been published: 20,8B against the forecasted 20,0B. The euro index strengthened by 1.2% in the third quarter. By the end of the trades on Wednesday the pair euro/dollar increased.

The British currency is demonstrating weakness. The pound did not update the December 2nd low (1.4893) which fits into the corrective scenario. The UK government bond yields declined relative to their US and Germany counterparts, reducing the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with the British currency growth.

Japan updated the third quarter GDP, the indicator was revised from -0.2% to 0.3%. The Japanese yen has increased amid the lack of the US important macroeconomic statistics. The lack of investors' risk appetite played into the “bears" hands. The market is trading in anticipation of the FOMC meeting on December 15-16. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone third quarter GDP final data did not move the euro as the result coincided with the forecasts and with the preliminary estimate which does not look impressive. The region economy grew by 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y in the last quarter. The euro received the main support from the purchases as a funding currency amid the risk aversion that put pressure on the stock indices.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0925, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US ambiguous statistics remained practically unnoticed. Last month the industrial production volume increased by 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y, having exceeded the forecast by 0.0% and 1.2% respectively. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector production declined by 0.4% m/m and 0.1% y/y, having confound expectations of 0.0% and 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a posiive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.5150. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese GDP final annual rate was sharply revised upwards to 1.0% against a decline by 0.8% previously and the modest forecast by 0.1% in the third quarter. The yen purchases were caused by the escape from risky assets as well as the Japanese favorable data.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 123.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US published jobless claims report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than forecasted 269 thousand having increased to 282 thousand. We believe that the EUR/USD pair correctional phase has approached to its end. The United States pleased traders with the retail sales strong data cheering "bears" to short. The US and the Germany government bond yields have grown which increased the investment’ attractiveness in the US assets. Markets expect that the FOMC will raise its key rate by 0.25% on December 16th which strengthened the Fed and the ECB monetary policy divergence that will contribute to the single European currency reduction. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease by the end of the trades yesterday.

The UK government bond yields rose relative to their US and Germany counterparts which supported the demand for the British assets. The Bank of England monetary policy meeting has been held. The UK inflation has been 0.16% for the first ten months of this year which is 0.62% less than in the same period in 2014. The labor market is showing a stable positive dynamics at the same time: the unemployment rate for the first three quarters of this year decreased by 0.4% to the mark of 5.3% while the average earnings growth for the third quarter amounted to 3% in annual terms. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields increased the investment’ attractiveness into the US assets supporting the demand for the dollar. The high-tech sector was the decline leader in the North American and European equity markets and the growth leader was the "protective" communal sector. However after a short-term growth the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro short-term correction cycle is coming to its logical conclusion. The pair EUR/USD proved to be one of the major beneficiaries of the risky assets sales, connected with the commodities market collapse. The pair was also supported by the Germany trade balance data. The November trade surplus amounted to 20.8 billion euros in the Eurozone largest country against the forecast of 20 billion and the previous value at the level of 19.2 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair confidently moved north, having slightly corrected from the highs after the oil sharp fall after the recent correction that had previously suported the Sterling growth. Great Briatin has published its October trade balance. The trade balance was expected -11,83V against -9,70V.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the resistance level of 1.5200 and the support level of 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The downward trend is continued amid the "risk assets" positions cutting. The pair USD/JPY fell victim to the yen status as a safe-haven currency. Besides the dollar growth and the Nikkei index the macroeconomic statistics supported the yen. After the GDP recent favorable data Japan published the machinery and equipment orders report which have slowed the November decline to -17.9% y / y from -22.9% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 121.30, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped the downward movement. The Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates unchanged at the mark of 0.75%. The franc showed mixed trading against other majors after the interest rate publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 0.9960 further on we expect a fall to 0.9850 and 0.9750.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Germany and the US government bond yields has been growing already a week increasing the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets supporting the US dollar. The US pleased traders with the November retail sales positive data. The employment and average earnings grew to the level of 91.3 in November while this indicator was at the levels of 88.8 and 75.1 respectively in November 2014 and 2013. The Michigan University consumer confidence report confirms the positive trend. In this context the retail sales data output was expected better than the consensus forecast. However, in fact the data came out at the level of 0,2% that is less then the forecasted 0,3%. The pair euro/dollar slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The Bank of England in its Monetary Policy summary pointed out to the low prices negative impact on the inflation expectations. The monetary authorities do not expect the economic growth acceleration. According to Mark Carney, the fourth quarter GDP may show an increase by 0.5%. The UK trade deficit growth cannot be ignored. The October release went out much worse than the market expectations. The negative net exports amounted to 103.8 billion pounds for the first ten months of the year which is 4.46% more than the same period in 2014. By the end of the trades the pound strengthened against the American dollar.

The pair USD/JPY is at the 4-week low. The US Treasury two-year bond yields are kept steadily at the five-year maximum which is a positive factor for the dollar indicating the Fed monetary policy tightening.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair mainly focused on the stock markets dynamics amid the Eurozone empty economic calendar. Not only the technical factors put pressure on the euro, but also the ECB representatives’ soft statements. In particular, Liikanen said that the central bank plands to keep the QE program, Yves Mersch hinted that the regulator was ready to use all available instruments in the framework of incentives.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British central bank left the rates and the buying assets program size unchanged. Contrary to the forecasts, the votes number to keep the borrowing costs at the current level of 0.5% remained unchanged (8 to 1). In addition, the regulator expressed his concern about the oil price decrease that would restrain the inflation growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5150 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY practically ignored the US labor market data, published on Thursday where the number of initial jobless claims reached the 5-month high at the level of 282 thousand against the expected 269 thousand. Meanwhile, investors expected the November US retail sales positive release. However the data disappointed traders: 0,2% against the forecasted 0,3%.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair continued to decrease. The dollar was steady against other major currencies due to the US economic reports amid the high expectations about the Fed rates growth the next week. However by the end of the trades the dollar decreased against the majors.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Still the US macroeconomic data is encouraging. Despite the commodity market sales, the November PPI was better than the consensus forecast. The retail sales report was in line with the traders’ expectations, still the "control group" indicator which is closely correlated with the PCE index came in at 0.2% higher than the consensus forecast. The indicator had risen to 0.8% for the first two months of the fourth quarter which forms a stable foundation for the quarterly GDP strong data.

The euro is in demand as a funding currency before the FED meeting. The October euro zone industrial production release has come out at the level of 0,6% against the forecasted 0,3%. The manufacturing sector PMI came in within the consensus forecast. The negative factor for the European industry was the euro strengthening by 4.2% in the second and third quarter which caused the products competitiveness decrease. The ECB President Draghi supported the bond purchases program on Monday. In addition, he noted that the regulator was ready to use all the policy instruments to achieve the price stability. The pair euro/dollar increased by the end of the day.

The lack of the US and the UK important macroeconomic statistics drew our attention to the debt and commodity markets. The UK and the US government bond yields showed a moderate reduction. The oil and industrial metals ended the trading week in a red zone. The markets may remain volatile till the FED meeting on December 16th. The pair pound/dollar decreased.

The Japan manufacturing sector is now experiencing some difficulties amid the Chinese economic growth slowdown as well as the new orders reduction. It is impossible to ignore the world leading stock exchanges sales. The pair dollar/yen continued the decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro growth is still regarded as a correction, primarily caused by the European stock markets risk aversion. Meanwhile, economic releases keep the pair indifferent. The Germany inflation publication was in line with the forecasts at the level of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Due to the UK empty economic calendar traders mainly focused on the dollar dynamics. The pound did not react to the IMF sufficient negatively comments. The Fund has recommended the Bank of England to keep the rates at the low levels for a longer period, making it clear that it did not expect the country inflation quick growth. However, the traders' interest in dollar sales helped the pound to ignore the IMF statements. The pair was supported by the US retail sales report did not reach forecasts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of China intention to weaken the yuan binding to the dollar pressured the yen. In addition, the Japanese GDP became the recent driver for the yen when the report did not confirm the country technical recession.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 120.35 and 119.35.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency decline is a positive factor for the German economy as the weak euro supports the net exports growth. The ZEW index has been published. The data came out at the level of 16,1, that is better then forecasted 15,0. The German industrial volume output has fallen by 0.91%, it declined by 0.27% for the same period in 2014. The core inflation grew by 2% on an annualized basis that is a positive factor for the dollar after the Fed total monetary policy meeting results publication. The US and the German government bond yields have decreased which played into the "bears" hands. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The November UK and the US inflation reports became the determining factor for the GBP/USD pair. The data in Britain came out at the forecasted level of 0,1%. The data in USA came out also at the forecasted level of 0,2%. Today FED will make its verdict on the monetary policy. We expect a high volatility. We noticed that both economies show the similar tendency: the population employment and incomes growth contributes to the private consumption that happening against the petroleum products price lowering. The oil market sales caused the UK government bond yields decline which in turn is a negative factor for the British currency as it reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

The USD/JPY bulls tried to develop an upward correction in the US stock market; still their efforts have not brought the desired dividends. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were the decline leaders which signaled about the lack of investors’ appetite to take risks. However the pair dollar/yen sharply increased after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone latest news left the pair almost indifferent, despite the fact that the regional October industrial production index has shown an impressive recovery to 0.6% m/m from -0.3% previously vs. + 0.3%. The annual value was 1.9% against the expected 1.3%. Once again the European stock market mood became the main driver for the pair.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The oil prices are the main factor that causing the Sterling decline. The pound is vulnerable to the US purchases on expectations about the Fed rate hike.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 and 1.4970 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen decline was triggered by the improved sentiment in the Asian stock markets after trading in the "red" zone. According to the statistics, the Japanese industrial production is in line with expectations at the level of + 1.4% m/m and -1.4% y/y in October while the service sector business activity index increased by 0.9%, having recovered after recession by 0.4%.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 123.20

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Markit published the December German manufacturing sector business climate report. Tha data came out at the forecasted median at the level of 53,0. The indicator has been growing for two months amid the euro weakening which has strengthened the German products competitiveness abroad. The US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision drew the market attention yesterday. The FOMC raised its rate by 0.25% to 0.50% having noted the strong upward trend in the labor market. When the oil market stabilizes –the US population income growth will put upward pressure on inflation expectations. The pair euro/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK and the US inflation releases determined the "bulls" and "bears" battle results. The UK inflation showed 0.08% against 0.77% in 2015. The inflation dynamics was not in favor of the United Kingdom the previous month: the US CPI growth rate was 0.16% against 0.74% for the ten months. The UK National Statistics Office published the labor market release. The average wages level gained 2.4% instead of the forecasted 2.5%, while the unemployment rate rose by 5.2% when the forecast was 5.3%. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the day.

The world's leading stock markets corrected after massive sales. The short-term uptrend is continued putting pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The dollar index basket dynamics (USDX) pointed to the US currency phase correction which is over now and now we expect the further long-term uptrend. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro decreased against the dollar by the end of the trades. Earlier the pair EUR/USD was advancing north amid the dollar weakness and the European stock indexes decline. Besides the risk appetite return and the dollar purchases resumption the US strong statistics pressured the prices that confirmed the prerequisites for the first Fed rate hike nearly for a decade.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support level of 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound did not react to the UK inflation report. The November consumer price index was on the ground level against the expected decline by 0.1%. Meanwhile, the main CPI index is in line with expectations at the level of + 1.2%, having shown an increase from the previous level of 0.1%. On the other hand, the British producers’ prices disappointed traders: the PPI base index fell by 0.2% m/m and 0.1% y/y vs. 0.0% and 0.1% respectively. Having ignored conflicting statistics, the pound was again dominated by the dollar renewed growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.4900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4970 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4900 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY has markedly strengthened. The US dollar dynamics played an important role in the other drivers absence for the yen.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 122.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Fed raised the key interest rates for the first time since 2006. The GDP and the unemployment long term forecasts were moderately revised towards the positive direction, on the other hand, the inflation rate was moderately revised towards the negative direction. The US dollar revaluation had a negative impact on exporters, so that the third quarter negative trade balance amounted to 133.7 billion dollars which is 6.21% more than in the same period in 2014. The US published the number of jobless claims report for the last week. The data came out at the level of 271 thousand; the forecasted median was 275 thousand.

The IFO Institute published the December Germany business sentiment index which came out at the level of 108.7. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The British currency has ignored the inflation and the employment moderately positive data. The retail sales forecasted medians were higher in November that supported the pound. The October average earnings report showed the growth rate slowdown which is a negative factor for the retail sector. The UK consumer confidence index fell to 1p in November which had been the lowest level for five months. There was a decrease in the pair GBP/USD.

The US and the Japanese government bond yields have increased after the FOMC decision to raise interest rates which increased the investment attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The low energy prices have forced the Bank of Japan to revise its inflation forecasts. The Japanese November trade balance report has already been published: 0.0 trillion yen from 0.20 trillion yen. The pair dollar/yen was growing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

As we expected the published statistics remained without any traders’ attention. The PMI euro zone preliminary estimates pointed out to the regional solid growth. In particular, the Germany manufacturing sector business activity index has risen to 53 while the same regional index rose up to 53.1. The services sector indicators did not meet our expectations, however, it has shown a good result, having remained above the critical level of 50.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The UK labor market secondary data did not add optimism to markets. Last month the number of jobless claims increased by 3.9 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 2.3% that is in line with the analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the average wage, taking into account premiums, increased by 2.4% y / y. The ILO statistics just became the "bright spot"- the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.3%. The UK retail sales volume came out at the level of 1.7 (m/m) and 5.0% (y/y) against the forecast of 0.5% (m/m) and 3.0% (y/y).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4830 and 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The pair USD/JPY has increased. The Japanese secondary report left the pair indifferent. The PMI manufacturing sector Nikkei pointed out to the slight growth slowdown - the indicator amounted to 52.5 against 52.6 in November.

The first support resides at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The first resistance stands at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 123.20, the next one is 123.80.



Franc

General overview

The pair continued its weak upward movement. The dollar is near the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time for ten years. The pair has strengthened and broke through the resistance level of 0.9960.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.12.2015

Fundamental analysis


The Germany IFO Institute release pointed out to the wholesale and retail trade business climate reduction. The manufacturing sector business activity grew this week. The upward trend has been continued. The Germany and the US government bond yields grew as well. The ECB and the Fed December decisions does not leave investors with no choice and sent their capital into the dollar and Treasury bonds purchase. The "black gold" market negative expectations were on the "bulls" hand within the US dollar. The US crude oil stocks have once again increased, the US Congress lifted the ban on the crude oil import. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly increased.

The Cable was not able to strengthen its position against the greenback that indicates the strong sellers’ presence. The November US Core CPI index showed a growth by 2% in annual terms which allowed the FOMC a sigh of relief before the interest rates verdict announcement. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar slightly fell.

The Bank of Japan monetary policy results have been published. The Bank of Japan corrected the quantitative easing program. The central bank will buy government bonds and shares in the Japanese stock market with an average maturity of 7-12 years government bonds before the repayment period was 7-10 years. The assets purchases annual volume remained unchanged with 80 trillion yen. In addition the Bank of Japan corrects the policy in connection to the oil prices trend changes. The trades on the pair USD/JPY closed with a decrease.




Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The regional industrial production volume has considerably recovered by 0.5% in October. However, the annual rate pointed to the slowdown from 1.8% to 1.1%. The ECB representative Nowotny statements that the ECB can correct the monetary policy unconventional instruments in both directions remained absolutely unnoticed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support level of 1.0800 and 1.0730.




Pound

General overview

The dollar purchases continue to “put pressure” to the low oil prices which fell downwards to the long-term lows. Prices have not been able to receive tangible support after the UK retail sales strong publication. Last month the index recovered by 1.7% m / m and 5.0% y / y from -0.5% and 4.2% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4830 soon. The next target is the support level of 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The pair dynamics was due to the dollar growth, the Japanese data did not affect the quotations mood. The trade deficit amounted to 379.7 billion yuan against the expected -446.2 billion. The exports index declined by 3.3% y / y vs. -1.5% and -2.2% previously. Imports fell by 10.2% from the October value of -13.4% while slowdown was expected to -8.3%.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing above the first target, the level 123.20 will become the next one.



Franc

General overview

The dollar index reached the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates, having thereby increased the US assets attractiveness. Experts expected the rates gradual increase, but still faster than it was earlier expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The economic calendar is empty, there was not published any interesting macroeconomic statistics. In this regard, the EUR/USD course is determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US and the German government bond yields showed a growth which increased the US assets investment’ attractiveness supporting the demand for the greenback. The equity markets long positions and high-yield cross rates pointed out to the lack of "risk appetite" among investors. However, after a decrease the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The GBP/USD bears have taken a breath. The UK government bond yields have grown in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increased the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The Cable could not realize even a deep correction - investors have opened short positions that have caused a new round of the prices decline. The pair pound/dollar was trading in a flat.

The USD/JPY quotations showed moderate decrease after the "risky assets" escape. Investors closed their longs which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The "protective" utilities sector was the growth leader in the US stock market, still the financial sector and the basic materials’ sector showed a decline. Such positioning points out to the pessimism growth. The Bank of Japan indicated the inflation expectations decline because of the hydrocarbon low prices which is a negative factor for the yen. After a decrease the pair dollar/yen was trading in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The November Germany producer price index showed the biggest annual fall in nearly six years, mainly due to lower energy prices. According to the Federal Statistics Office Destatis, Germany's producer price index in November fell 0.2% m / m and 2.5% y / y. The euro area payments balance release with the surplus amounted to 20.4 billion euros compared to the previous value of 29.4 billion remained unnoticed. Meanwhile, the pair EUR/USD mainly focused on the stock market’s mood.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The British currency was not able to take advantage of the dollar widespread weakening in Asian session. The pound is under pressure amid the strong dollar as well as the Bank of England rate hike prospects after the inflation forecast worsening and the country wages increase slowdown. The UK withdrawal from the EU is an additional risk factor which from time to time makes the Sterling fell.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4970. If the price falls it will get to 1.4830.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan meeting results were the yen growth reason. The BoJ announced the easing monetary policy measures. In particular, the regulator stated that the rate would continue to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen in annual terms and decided to allocate 300 billion yen for the ETF purchase. The central bank extended the purchased bonds maturity from 10 to 12 years and decided to start it from the next year.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 121.30 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman