"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor.

Now the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease.

The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts.

The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness.

The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not.

The buyers’ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimists’ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two –year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase.

The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicators’ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollar’s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls.

Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock markets’ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell.

The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand.

The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day.

The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday.

There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. – The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader.

The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%).

The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements.

The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs.

In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday – amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development.

Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US traders’ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth.

Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%.

The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00.

The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting.

The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction.

The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investors’ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency.

The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target – 1.0370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The 10-year German government bond yields decreased by 5 basis points in November. The average earnings growth contributes to the consumer spending increase which is the inflation welcome factor. The debt market showed mixed dynamics: the German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US counterparts, while the Gilts growth supported the EUR/GBP quotations moderate growth. Meanwhile the pair EUR/USD showed a slight decrease.

The US and the UK government bond yields exceeded 40 basis points last Friday. The UK GDP second estimate remained unchanged at the level of 0.5% that has deprived the Cable for the short-term corrective growth continuation. The investment volume has been revised by 0.7% in the positive side, compared with the previous quarter and by 6.6% compared to the same last year period. The British companies are increasing their investments. The commodity market sales had a positive impact on the US dollar value as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD was decreasing and only by the end of the trades it slightly corrected upwards.

The Chinese stock market panic sent the Asian markets downwards and contributed to the carry trade operations closure which caused demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The oil and industrial metals’ prices declined which supported the US dollar as the commodities value is denominated in dollars. The Japanese and the US government bond yields showed growth in the bond market having formed the first signal on the technical correction completion. The pair USD/JPY increased on the Monday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The November Germany inflation preliminary data has been published. The CPI came out at the level of 0,1% m/m and 0,4% y/y. The "black gold" market negative trend put downward pressure on the CPI leading euro-zone economy. The possible US Federal Reserve December policy tightening serves as a main factor for the dollar bullish sentiment.

Bears have lowered the price below the support level of 1.0630. This level testing ended with the breakthrough failure that fixed the price at the support level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough we may expect the fall towards 1.0420 further on we expect a growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Bears dominated at the market. The debt market shows the negative trend for the British assets. The 10-year government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor M.Karni’s statements that the UK low interest rates preservation can last for a long time gave the market an additional incentive to buy the dollar against the pound.

The support at the level of 1.5100 was broken through and the pair decreased to the level of 1.5040. There was an attempt to break through this barrier to consolidate below. This breakthrough was short-term and the pair returned to the mark of 1.5040.

The price is finding the support at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5040, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment prevailed at the market. The Japanese October industrial production release surfaced a pleasant surprise amid the PMI index positive dynamics. However it was not enough for the downward movement development and the pair increased.

The price checked once again the correctional corridor support for its strength - the level of 122.40 and then its growth has resumed. The trade was at the marks of 123.20. The current growth is the lateral correction continuation in the corridor of 123.20-122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The USA/Germany and the Germany/UK government bond yields did not show any changes in the debt market. The stable debt market indicates the single European currency side trend development. Europe and the US have published a large package of economic statistics. Investors received the manufacturing sector business activity index data in the Eurozone (52,8 that is at the forecasted median), the Germany (52,9 against the forecasted 52,6) the UK (52,7 against the forecasted 53,6) and the US (48,6 against the forecasted 50,5). The Germany employment data attracted the traders’ attention: 6,3% in November against the forecasted 6,4%). The pair EUR/USD showed an increase.

The Bank of England governor Carney made his speech. According to Carney the regulator was ready to ease the pressure on the British banks and to reduce the capital requirements volume, bringing an end to the post-crisis reforms years in order to make the banking sector more secure. By te end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a growth.

The dollar index basket is near the current year maximum values. Market participants refrained from active trading and have taken a wait and see position. The manufacturing sector ISM index data output is worse than the forecasted medians that restrained "bulls" from the further attack. The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

If the USA inflation shows some positive signs, the Eurozne one does not show any signs of activity that threatens the European economy with the big economic problems in the long term. We expect the ECB to enlarge the stimulating measures this Thursday which is supposed to push the inflation upwards. In economic news the Germany PMI manufacturing activity index was published which amounted to 52.9.

The pair started a correction. Sellers have broken through the strong support level of 1.0550. Then, the price jumped upwards. The resistance level of 1.0630 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Markit UK PMI manufacturing sector did not please investors with the strong data: 52.7 vs. 53.6. The British pound sgowed a growth after the UK third quarter strong report. Still the currency has lost 2.4% against the dollar in November, largely due to the Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane comments who said that the UK did not need to raise the rates in the near future.

The pair showed some growth, staying under pressure below the nearest resistance of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5040 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment predominance was noted amid the debt market positive dynamics. The Japanese and the US government bond yields expanded that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and thereby supports demand for the dollar. However the growth impulse weakened.

The pair stopped its increase. Having rebounded from the support of 122.40, the pair has managed to grow to 123.20 and to test this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Traders take a wait and see position awaiting for the ECB decision on December 4th. The ECB soft monetary policy is giving its fruits: the unemployment decreased by 0.7% from the beginning of the year, while the real GDP has grown for the first nine months by 1.79%. According to the second indicator, the euro zone is behind the US which has increased by 2.53%. The German 10-year government bond yields rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which gives a moderate support for the single European currency. However the pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

As expected the PMI manufacturing sector came out worse than the consensus forecast amid the British goods competitiveness decline. The pair EUR/GBP has dropped by 5% from 1 October to 30 November. We do not expect high growth rates in the 2015 fourth quarter. The UK government bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany donds reduces the British assets investments attractiveness putting pressure on the Cable. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The ISM manufacturing sector release disappointed traders with the weak data. The PMI has fallen below 50% the first time for the last three years which indicates the purchasing managers growing pessimism amid the oil and gas sector stagnation as well as the dollar revaluation. After the ISM release publication the US and Japanese government bond yields fell which signals the presence of bears. The pair dollar/yen grew after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone published the employment positive release – the October unemployment rate fell to the level of 10.7%. The lowest unemployment rate was recorded in Germany (4.5%), and the highest rate was registered in Greece (24.6%) and Spain (21.6%). The US ADP number of employees’ data has been published (the previous value of 182K; the forecast of 191K). In fact the data came out at the level of 217K.

The pair EUR/USD recovered from the low of 1.0550, having reached the resistance near 1.0630. Then the pair fell again. The pair is trading in a flat.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0420 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI construction sector index was published within the consensus forecast. On the one hand, the incomes growth increases the real estate demand. On the other hand, the mortgage interest rates moderate growth, combined with the property prices increase will deter potential buyers (the UK property has grown by 8.4% for the first ten months).

The pair GBP/USD rate rose to 1.5100, but then the pair sharply fell. The support levels of 1.5040 and 1.4970 were broken through. The level of 1.4900 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the support level of 1.4900 break that will open the way for the level of 1.4830. Further on we expect a growth to 1.5100 where the pair may stop.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US new orders indicator also fell below 50%, only 5 out of 13 branches have reported about the orders increase. On the other hand, the employment indicator showed an increase by 3.7 p. and has risen above 50% level which is a positive factor for the Friday's Non-Farm release. The oil and gas sector as well as the auto industry continues to claim about the staff reduction. This report is the first wake-up call for the US economy as a whole and the dollar in particular.

The pair USD/JPY played its growth out at the beginning of the week, having fallen below the level of 123.20. Initially, the pair showed a sharp fall then the quotes have slightly recovered. The trades closed above the level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 123.80. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the Fed governor Janet Yellen the too long interest rates growth delay creates certain risks. The FED governor once again noted the labor market positive dynamics which would contribute to the inflation target level completion in the long run.

The NFP was last Friday main event. The report came in better than it was forecasted that may become an additional reason to hike the rate on December 16th. In economic news, the ISM services and manufacturing sector releases came in at the level of 200 thousand.

The ECB decision to increase the stimulating package by 420 billion euro to 1 April 2017 caused the market mixed reaction. Instead of the price reduction the strong growth was observed. Analysts believe that the current dollar sales wave is just a correction as the market has achieved considerable highs. The ECB decision is a negative factor for the euro in the medium term as the QE program increased by 41%.

The pair GBP/USD also showed an impressive growth amid the US currency general weakness. The UK statistical support gave additional support to the pound. The November service sector business activity index rose sharply to 55.9 from 54.9 while analysts had expected a modest increase up to 55.0.
The USD/JPY could not resist the widespread dollar sales wave. Still the pair managed to grow after a sharp decrease earlier.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Besides the monetary policy slight easing the European regulator raised its forecast for the region GDP in the current year to 1.5% from 1.4% while the inflation forecast remained at the level of 0.1%. The 2016 and 2017 inflation forecasts or were revised towards the negative side that deprives the euro opportunities for significant strengthening. According to Mario Draghi the abundance liquidity period will be long.

The support resides at the 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The northern movement will last until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US dollar general weakness and the stronger-than-expected British statistics have caused the pound sharp rise. After the industrial and construction sectors production slowdown, investors expected the services sector weakness, still the sector business activity report has shown a slight increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The first resistance stands at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.5150 break that may open the way for the buyers to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the US Federal Reserve D. Yellen performance the two-year Treasury bond yields increased to 1%, having set a new maximum for the last five and a half years. Thus the market believed in the FOMC interest rates hike on December 16.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.80 and 124.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

As Janet Yellen stated the Fed was ready to raise the interest rates. She just fears that the interest rates hike delay may complicate the monetary policy tightening in the short term which may lead the economy into recession.

The first support lies at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9960. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The labor market figures signal that the Fed interest rates increase on December 16th is quite possible. 509 thousand of new jobs have been created in the US economy, the average earnings increased by 0.6%. Such data can be regarded as inflationary which allows the FED to increase the discount rate since 2006.

The pair euro/dollar has shown a relative stability after the US last week important release, feeling the support after the ECB meeting results when the regulator limited the deposit rate decrease and prolonged the buying assets program for seven months. The Germany good data supported the euro as well: the industrial orders sharply recovered by 1.8% m/m after 0.7% decrease the previous month.

The Sterling is very much pinned downwards (the price has fallen down by 3.3% for the last month). There is one week before the US Federal Reserve meeting now it is the time for an upward correction. The commodity market instability is supporting the US dollar which also had a negative impact on the pound.

Japan has reported about the average wage size increase by 0.7% in annual terms which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The wage growth is an inflation indicator which has traditionally a positive impact on the national currency. However, investors ignored the positive release - the Japanese yen strong strengthening did not happen that indicates the strong buyers presence. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Monday was not rich in important macroeconomic events. We highlight the October Germany industrial production. The Markit PMI indicator is showing moderately positive trend. Considering the previous month low base we expect the industrial production volume growth. Nevertheless, the data came out less then forecasted 0,7% at the level of 0,2%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields significantly grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increased the investment attractiveness into the British assets and supported the pound. In the absence of the UK releases and important events the pair dynamics was mainly driven by technical factors and the dollar general partial recovery.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5150 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency showed some attempts to strengthen, but it could not get full support from the Japanese consumer confidence data. The November confidence indicator rose to 42.6 from 41.5 while analysts had expected the more modest improvement to 41.8.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.