"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the beginning of the week the macroeconomic background is once again in the dollar favor. As for the investors’ escape into the euro while the Chinese data is deteriorating, it may happen only when we have shock events or when the investors escape from the carry trade market.

The pair euro/dollar has increased. The French August industrial production showed growth by 1.6% against the growth expectations by 0.6%. Investors, however, ignored the French budget deficit decline to -87.7 billion euros against -79.8 billion in July and the Italian industrial production decline by 0.5% - while it was expected 0.3%.

The pair GBP/USD remained in a flat. The UK August trade deficit was 11.1 billion pounds against -10.0 billion and the previous indicator declined to -11.1 billion from -12.2 billion pounds. The UK construction sector fell by 4.3% against the growth expectations by 1.0%.

The dollar/yen was in a flat the whole Monday. The September import price index correction (-0.1% vs. -0.5%) and the wholesale inventories increase to the predicted level of 0.1% in August slightly supported the dollar.

The week started Japanese, the USA and Canadian holidays. The political component of the day was the Fed representatives Charles Evans and Lael Brainard's speeches. Evans supports the interest rate hike this year, Brainard is not inclined to raise the rates this year.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Monday economic calendar was empty, the US and Canada have holidays, the trading volumes are very small. The political component of the day was the Federal Reserve members’ speeches. According to the Bank of France, the French August current account balance surplus was 200 million euros against the deficit of 400 million euros in July. The August services trade surplus was 900 million euros against the deficit of 100 million euros in July. The US August trade deficit amounted to 1.1 million euros against 900 million euros in July.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now. A short-term bounce down to the level of 1.1325 is possible.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market intensified rumors about the ECB readiness to postpone and to extend the QE program. According to Mario Draghi, the quantitative easing program works better than expected, still the inflation will likely fail to achieve the target with certain periods set by the indicator. The main reason is the "bearish" oil trend. The UK CB leading indicators remained unchanged: -0.3% m/m. Investors drew their attention to the UK employment report.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. If the pair remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The pair will grow until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

Our first target is 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was stable on Monday amid the limited trading volumes due to the US and the Japanese holidays. This week investors will focus their attention on the US Wednesday retail sales and the Thursday consumer prices are in search of fresh indications for the consumer spending strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan shall publish the Monetary Policy Committee last meeting minutes.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The pair is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease one is 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week showed calm trades. There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The Japan and the US banks have not worked because of the public holidays which caused the liquidity decrease and the players’ low activity.

As a result, the euro stayed in a flat, the British pound rose up by 29 points on Monday, still this growth was stopped by the weak Chinese trade balance data and the pair fell. The USD/JPY has decreased.

The US dollar has fallen amid the market expectations decrease about the rate growth in 2015. The New York Federal Reserve Bank president William Dudley even said about the probable negative rate introduction in case of a crisis. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank governor Dennis Lockhart spoke about the possible December increase. Still, the oil significant decrease can pressure the currencies quotes that are against the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone faces the deflation threat. The September CPI preliminary data showed the negative value at the level of 0.2%. The quotations showed a growth in the Asian equity markets the day before as well as the high-yield cross-rates growth which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410. The price started its weak correction.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat, still our main target is the level of 1.1410 now.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Investors' attention is directed to the September UK inflation report. The UK monetary authorities have repeatedly said about the low inflation level in the medium term. The UK 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the September inflation declined by 19.5 basis points. One of the positive factors for the pound is the July unemployment rate decrease by 0.1%.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The pound exchange rate continued its correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are crossing each other that might be a pivot sign. The pair will keep the growth pace until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the situation does not change the level of 1.5390 will remain our main target. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was no important macroeconomic statistics publication; the trades were set by the bond and stock markets. The US and Japanese government bond yields were expanding the whole last week that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. The investors' risk appetite is still preserved: the Chinese stock market closed the first half of the week with the quotations growth by 3.29%.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now. The USD/JPY is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease target is 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth amid the Germany and the US government bond yields decline. Earlier the euro decreased after the weak German business confidence index – the October indicator fell from 12.1 to 1.9 against expectations of 6.8. The European ZEW index fell to the forecasted value of 30.1 from 3.3 in September. Against this background, the pair continued upward movement.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD fell after the UK September disappointing inflation data. A small storm rolled across the UK market. The September consumer price index (CPI) fell down to deflation at an annual rate: -0.1% y/y. This is the first inflation negative annual rate for the last 55 years. The base Index (Core CPI) remained at the level of 1.0% vs. 1.1%. Retail prices declined from 1.1% y/y to 0.8% y/y (forecast 1.0% y/y). Even house prices have not changed: 5.2% y/y against expectations of 5.5% y/y. At the last trading day, the pair sharply gained weight.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the "bearish" sentiment in the global equity markets. The retail sales in United States, which was 0.1%, which is below the expected 0.2%, also contributed to the decrease of the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ZEW institute weak release confirms investors' concerns about the leading euro-zone economy deflationary scenarios development. Meanwhile, the bond market is supporting the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are increasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance level of 1.1410, but it is unknown if they are able to retain and develop this success.

The first support is at the level of 1.1410, the second one is at the level of 1.1325. The resistance is at the level of 1.1530, the next one is at the level of 1.1590. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair left the flat range and having passed the first target the level of 1.1410 rushed to the next stop – 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound continues to show the downward trend. The inflation weak data disappointed investors and against this background, the pound is showing its weakness in relation to its main competitors. The currency market has been still expecting for the recent weeks that the Bank of England will raise the interest rates in the first half of 2016. Now, these expectations were completely leveled and investors begin to revise their forecasts.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound rate continued its upward correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair will keep its growth until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram returned to a growth.

Trading recommendations

The price keeps growing. We expect a short term rebound downwards, to the level 1.5460 where we believe the pair will return to the growth. It is good opportunity to long from this point. Our growth targets are the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The debt market dynamics confirms the demand for the US assets. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. The US currency is supported by the commodity market sales. The oil and industrial metals finished the day in the negative area that traditionally has a positive impact on the dollar quotations.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair seems to set its direction. If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar came under a sales wave in relation to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.19. After the Chinese inflation and the subsequent US retail sales weak data investors strengthened the opinion that even the December Fed rate hike would not take place. In addition, the US Labor Department published the initial jobless claims number which turned out 255K. It is better than forecasted 270K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a growth amid the US PPI September negative release. The Eurozone industrial production fell by 0.5% vs. -0.4% in August, but the overall dollar decline pulled the euro upwards. However, the pair showed a decrease last trading day.

By the end of the day, the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK August labor market positive data. The August unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, the last three months average salary has increased not by forecasted 3.1%, but still by good value of 3.0%. In the morning, there was a decrease, but in the afternoon, the situation has been leveled off.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the decline amid the "investors risk appetite reduction." At the same time the yen does not have any internal support factors. The September engineering equipment orders volume fell to the preliminary estimates from 16.5% y/y to 19.1% y/y, the September producer price index fell to -3.6% y/y to -3.9% y/y while the new Japanese government once again confirmed that the QE increase would not happen. The US manufacturing index which showed a decrease-4.5 instead of forecast -1.0, also affected the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors closed the carry trade deals which support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The two–year US Treasury bond yields, which reflect the investors’ expectations about the Fed interest rate, are declining which deprives the dollar support. Moreover, the US and the Germany government bond yields greatly reduced on Wednesday which will contribute to the demand for the euro. Now the commodity market dynamics is not on the bulls side: the oil and industrial metals quotations reduction has been stopped which is a positive factor for the US currency competitors.

The pair showed multidirectional trades yesterday. The pair was falling the whole day and stopped at the American session. The pair lost 120 points and stopped at 1.3800.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows horizontal movement, and the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still inclined to grow. Shall the pair keep growing it will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office pointed out to the unemployment reduction by 0.1% to the level of 5.4% and the average earnings increase based on premiums by 0.1%. On the other hand, the US reported about the PPI decline by 1.1% compared to the same period of 2014, which indicates the consumer prices decline. As a result, the US and the UK 10- year government bond yields began to back down.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed upwards and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5500 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency has been in demand for the last three trading days in a row amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". The global stock markets positions closure contributes to the yen quotations growth as a funding currency. The US inflation release shall support the demand for the "risky assets". The number of the US jobless claims was expected 270K against the previous 263.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The price completed the third support level and was not able to breakthrough it.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US employment weak economic data have reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve soon will raise the interest rates that fact led to the stocks’ increase. It also became known that the retail sales fell by 1.1% in annual terms after the August decline by 0.8%.

The pair continued its downward movement and broke through the support level of 0.9540 and firmly fixed below this mark, we do not see any correction signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions – the dollar basket index (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.43. The US dollar found the support due to the stronger-than-expected US inflation report which showed a decrease to 255K against the previous 262K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a decline. The ECB representative Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB did not reach the inflation target. The regulator requires a new set of instruments. The euro zone released the September consumer price index and declared about the August trade balance changes, which turned out to be lower then expected – 11.2B against forecasted 20B. During the day, the pair was in a flat.

The pair GBP/USD had strengthened amid the EUR/GBP quotations reduction by the end of the day.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with a growth amid the US and Japanese government bond yields. According to the preliminary data the US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was higher than expected and amounted to 92.1 against forecasted 89.0. The NAHB October housing market index was published alongside with the vacancies level and the August labor turnover.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the debt market began to form a reversal pattern for the German and the US Treasuries 10-year bond yields. This trend continuation will increase a demand for the US assets. We cannot ignore the "investors’ risk appetite" growth. The traders’ attention is directed the US industrial production and consumer confidence publications.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. That is possible “Dead Cross” formation. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price started its correction, still it intends to grow. If the growth is continued the EUR/USD will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the UK government bond yields increased in the debt market. Moreover, the US crude oil inventories publication supported the US currency. The traders’ attention is focused on the US industrial production report.

The pound continued its upward movement, beforehand it had corrected to the level of 1.5421.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pound upward trend is stopped; the pair began a consolidation phase.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return below the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and the Japanese moderate bond yields increased in the credit market which increases the US assets investments’ attractiveness. The Nasdaq high-tech index was the growth leader in the US stock market that indicates the interest growth for the risky assets. That is traditionally a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, investors are studying the US September industrial production release.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen is directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened positions after the US Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 255,000 from 262,000 the previous week. The US Commerce Department reported that the consumer prices fell by 0.2% last month that is in line with the expectations. Investors drew attention to the US industrial production report and to the consumer sentiment that is in search for economic recovery additional signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro.

The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day.

The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs.

The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now.

Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors’ activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong.

At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’ speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual.

The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors’ attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication.

The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410.



Pound

General overview

The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’s speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month.

Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs continued to consolidate in the narrow ranges amid the lack of relevant data. The market completely ignored the published economic statistics. The euro zone improved lending conditions news was an exception which led to the short-term pressure on the US dollar. Apparently, traders are waiting for the new guidelines and they determined to wait when the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions.

Investors liked the ECB lending survey results which showed that the quantitative easing program bears its fruits, improving the credit conditions. It could set up to the concerns decrease that the ECB would expand the bond purchase program. However, the euro interest has been short-lived and the euro was almost back to their original positions by the end of the day.

There were "cable" short-term purchases amid the Bank of England J. McCafferty harsh comments who said that the bank should start the interest rates rising now to get the interest rate gradual and steady growth. However, this rhetoric has supported the British currency for a short time. The pound showed a lateral movement.

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. Obviously, the mood, connected with another monetary easing at the next BoJ meeting and the US interest rates increase is the main topic for the yen traders. The agencies polls show that the traders’ percentage who believe in incentives volume growing has been increasing. The pair stopped in the middle of the trading day then the price changed the direction to the downward one.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has completely leveled the previous growth success against the dollar. The ECB representative Linde said that if necessary the ECB could expand the quantitative easing program. According to him, they are not in a hurry to hike the rate as the euro area inflation raises some concerns.

The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the range, limited by the resistance near 1.1410 and the support near 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1410 and 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. We have a “Golden Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We wait for the ECB meeting results that may give us the clue regarding the ECB further plans. We still two ways the price to go: the level of 1.1325 if the EUR/USD decreases and the level of 1.1410 if it grows.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has remained stable, although it is still under pressure. The Bank of England representative McCafferty said that the interest gradual increase can justify the monetary policy tightening in the short term. The Bank of England needs to avoid deviation from the course when making interest rates decisions; there is a risk that the inflation will be above the target level in 2017.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The pair will keep growing until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating its achievements in anticipation of the Fed representatives’ speeches. However, the current statistics do not support the dollar. Now traders expect the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen evening speech, hoping to hear hints about the interest rates increase. Traders hope the rate hike will be this year.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal, the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market approached the main day of the week with an activity absence. There was a sluggish trade before the ECB meeting. Investors were waiting for the new guidelines and stayed away from the large-scale transactions.

Mario Draghi hinted that the Bank was ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy to increase the inflation in the euro area.

Draghi said the economic recovery and inflation were likely to be under pressure due to slow economic growth in emerging markets. The euro lost 1.8% when Draghi signaled that the ECB could announce the additional measures easing monetary policy launch until the end of the year. The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as it was expected.

The EUR/USD remained in the narrow range before the meeting results announcement and sharply fell on the news.

Lack of support from the economic data and increased uncertainty, connected with the Central Bank leading economies monetary policy prospects continued to affect the pair GBP/USD activity. The pound was in the side range the whole day, but closed the session with the a little heavy losses against the US dollar compared to the other majors. The UK economic data have shown that the public sector net borrowings have been the lowest for the last eight years, 8.6 billion pounds against the previous 10.8 billion pounds when it was expected to see 9.1 billion pounds which can signal about the possible government plans to reduce the budget deficit.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell by 1.8% when Draghi said that the ECB could launch the easing monetary policy this year. The ECB on Thursday left. The ECB did not change the interest rates, as we expected.

The pair lost about 200 pp during yesterday’s European session. The pair fell from 1.1330 to 1.1130 where it finished the day.

The first support is at the level of 1.1050, the second one is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price broke the Ichimoku Cloud through having stopped deep below it. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is likely to go to the support of 1.1050 soon. After a sharp decline we expect a short-term bounce up to 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound fell against the US dollar after the Bank of England meeting minutes publication which pointed to the soft policy tendency.

McCafferty and Will, who support the interest rates increase, said that the UK economic situation justifies proposed decisions. In their view, the CPI index below the target level is due to the currency course growth and the commodity prices decrease.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pair is still in a flat.

We have a weak buy signal; the price is in the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. We have not confirmed “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair entered the Cloud that might be a bearish signal. If the pair goes through the Cloud and consolidates below of it we could get the sell movement. The levels 1.5390 and 1.5300 our first targets



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expect the "bullish" sentiment predominance for two reasons. The first one is the demand for the "risky assets" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The second reason is the commodity market sales that will support the dollar as the commodity cost is denominated in the US currency. The news from Europe supported the dollar was well. The ECB left the rates unchanged. The Bank may enlarge the stimulating measured this year.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. We do not believe that the pair could return to a decrease soon though we do not exclude some short-term bounces down.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar has sharply grown against all its major opponents last week. The reason for the growth activity was the ECB meeting where they decided the Eurozone monetary policy prospects. The European Central Bank did not change the monetary parameters, however, the governor M. Draghi's "dovish" tone supported the US dollar not only against the euro, but also against other majors. The Chinese central bank cut its interest rates to 4.35% which is primarily affected the oil market.

Draghi signaled about his readiness to expand the incentive programs and hinted that this decision may be taken this December. The euro fell after his words against the dollar and other reserve currencies

The British pound also fell against the dollar amid the ECB news, still it suffered fewer losses than its main currency colleagues. Obviously, the pound relative stability was due the fact that even before the European Bank recent reports the UK economic data marked the September retail trade very impressive results. The UK retail sales rose up by 1.9% m/m compared to the previous month, but in annual terms it rose up by 6.5% y/y which was much better than the forecast, it was expected 0.3% m/m and + 4.8% y/y after -0.4% m/m, 3.5% y/y in August.

The Bank of Japan further monetary policy easing continues to put pressure on the yen. The October manufacturing sector business activity index preliminary data was published, the result turned out to be much stronger than the forecasts 52.5 after 51.0 while it was expected to see 50.6. Still this indicator did not have significant impact on the market.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Despite the October business activity strong data, the euro remains under pressure. The ECB President gave a clear signal to the market about the high probability of easing program expansion in December. The chief banker’s speech at the press conference made the euro decline by 200 points against the dollar.

There is an assumption that the euro zone main bank can begin to solve their problems not only with the help of quantitative easing, but also using other instruments such as the deposits interest rates increase, the other asset purchases or even intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price broke the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The target the price to go now is the level of 1.0925. The EUR/USD is undervalued and we believe the pair shall bounce upwards now.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD continued its decrease after the ECB President Draghi hinted that the central bank was considering the possibility of taking new economic growth and inflation stimulating measures. The retail sales report supported the pound still the pair was unable to overcome the level of 1.5500 as the market again increased expectations of a rate hike at the Fed pen half 2016. The pound touched new daily lows near 1.5350. The dollar keeps growing that increased the pair's correction.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards and forms “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be continued until the pair is below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. We do not exclude some correction upwards. Shall the pair grow the level of 1.5390 will be the first our goal.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar last Thursday. The Mario Draghi statements had an impact on this pair, the ECB further stimulating prospects have improved the risk appetite. The pair is likely to continue bullish movement still the strong technical resistance levels which the pair has reached can stop its growth for a while.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The euro fell after the ECB President Mario Draghi's statement. Draghi's rhetoric was perceived by traders as a signal of the inevitable new measures to liberalize the monetary policy in the short term. Draghi's words sharply pressured the single currency and supported the dollar as the markets believe that the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rates in December if the economy and the market would be as well as projected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory above its signal line. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is 0.9850. The pair may correct to the level of 0.9750 and 0.9650.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.