"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.05.01.2017EuroGeneral overview
The euro strengthened against its US rival getting support from the EU upbeat data. According to Eurostat the Euroland inflation has been expanding at its fastest pace. Positive Markit Services and Composite PMIs in Germany and France supported the euro as well.Current situation
From a technical point of view, the pair remained in a mid-term downward channel staying around its lower boundary. However, the 4 hours chart presented a limited upward potential. The euro took an advantage of a weaker dollar and reversed a minor part of its recent losses on yesterday’s trades. Buyers pushed prices to 1.0450 where the upward impetus faded in the mid-European session. After touching the level the euro slightly rolled back staying in its region. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200-EMAs kept pointing lower while the 50-EMA remained neutral. EUR/USD remained below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left oversold readings and entered the neutral territory. Trading recommendations
Euro is expected stay under pressure unless it reclaims 1.0500 hurdle. An advance beyond 1.0500 will likely result in further recoveries. We believe buyers may push the EUR/USD to 1.0550. A break below 1.0400 will suggest further weakness of the EUR/USD pair. The level 1.0350 is the primary sellers’ target.Pound
The British pound recovered some ground when the fresh UK data showed upbeat figures. Thus, Construction PMI, Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit surpassed all traders’ expectations showing a stable growth of the UK economy after the Brexit.Current situation
The sterling recovered some ground, but remained weak against the US dollar trading below the 1.2300 mark on Wednesday. Traders were able to push the price upwards in the early trades. The GBP/USD pair recovered to 1.2285 where the upward trajectory lost its legs post-European open. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA in the Asian session on Wednesday. The price failed to retake the level and remained well below the moving averages in the same chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator remained within the neutral territory.Trading recommendations
The technical picture presents a bearish tone. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may extend its bearishness to the 1.2100 level. However, if the dollar keeps easing across the board, the currency pair may continue its recovery from the two-month low. To neutralize the current downward pressure buyers need to retake 1.2300. After breaking the level the pair may recover to 1.2350.YenGeneral overview
The yen ignored positive Manufacturing PMI from Nikkei and remained under pressure in the early trades on Wednesday. European equity markets mild cautious sentiment switched off the risk appetite supporting the yen as a safe-heaven currency later the day. Moreover, the US Treasury bond yields retracement kept on weighing on the greenback.Current situation
From a technical point of view USD/JPY remains in a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair failed to sustain the Asian recovery when buyers met a solid barrier around 118.00 and had to step back. The spot eased off the 118.00 level and erased all its daily gains afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA twice during the day. Traders failed to break the line which rejected them every time. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral. The price remained hovering above the moving averages during the day. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.
MACD traded to the upside. The RSI left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area.Trading recommendations
In the scenario where the buyers keep control the pair will advance to 118.00 first. The potential buyers’ target is 119.00.USD/CADGeneral overview
Oil market positive sentiment supported the commodity-linked currency like Canadian dollar on Wednesday.Current situation
The dollar recovery in the Asian session stalled around 1.3470 when the currency pair ran through fresh offers and dropped below 1.3400 support at the beginning of the European trades. Sellers extended their gains in the European session and headed towards 1.3260 handle. The downward pressure ran out of steam around 1.3300. The price bounced off the mark towards 1.3330. The price broke the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330.
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings. Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the level 1.3330, sellers may continue a downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 1.3260 and 1.3190. We do not rule out and a recovery on profit taking. USD/CAD may reverse some of its losses if it returns above 1.3330.XAU/USDGeneral overview
Gold moved higher on Wednesday despite a positive dollar. The dollar retracement seems to be the only factor pushing the metal higher. The dollar is strong and we wonder if gold manages to sustain its recovery strength.Current situation
XAU/USD opened green on Wednesday. Traders broke 1160 and advanced to 1170 during the Asian hours. The pair was unable to climb higher and retreated almost immediately after the level test. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 200-EMA. The 100 and the 200-EMA maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance exists at 1160, the support stands at 1150 dollars per ounce.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator consolidated within positive area.Trading recommendations
We would be selling the gold metal only if the price drops below 1150. Then it may advance towards 1140 dollars per ounce. BrentGeneral overview
Oil prices remained under pressure on Wednesday waiting for weekly U.S. stockpiles data. Current situation
Brent managed to reverse a small portion of its recent losses in the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, met a barrier at 56.13 region which rejected prices downwards in the European session. The benchmark was trying hard to retake the level 55.50 dollars per barrel during the European hours and continued with it in the NY session. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 EMA in the European session. All moving averages kept pointing higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was within oversold readings.
After a close above the resistance at 56.50 the price may extend its growth to 57.50. A sharp breakout below 55.50 could spark a further decline towards 54.50, en rout to 53.50 dollars per barrel.DAXGeneral overview
European bourses turned negative on Wednesday. Investors kept weighing up fresh macro updates from the Eurozone and UK. Moreover, traders refrained from creating fresh positions ahead of the FOMC minutes and preferred to book some profit.Current situation
The index had a negative day on Wednesday. Bears were in control moving DAX downwards. The benchmark pushed away from the 11600 hurdle and advanced towards 11500 support region. The price kept hovering above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator stayed within the undervalued territory.Trading recommendations
A downward correction will start as soon, as the Germany's DAX 30 drops below the support level 11500. Then we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11400.S&P500General overview
Wall Street edged higher on Wednesday awaiting for the Fed's minutes hoping to hear new rate hike dates.Current situation
S&P500 edged higher and recovered nearly half of the two-week entire decline. Market participants moved the price to 2260 level which slowed down their advance. The benchmark tested the level in the NY session and kept on battling with it during the US hours. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north.
The bullish views are getting more popular now. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 2260. A cut through here will turn attention to the 2280 level, en route to 2300. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services
, Alexander Kofman