"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar grew against its main rivals to 7-month high on Monday. The US currency was able to extend its gains amid optimistic US data which reinforced investors’ hopes over the Fed rate hike in 2016.

Current situation

The euro partly recovered and was able to reverse the majority of its losses during the trades on Monday. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following Friday's sell-off. Buyers pushed the EUR/USD to the resistance 1.1000. However, bulls failed to regain the level and the price slightly rolled back. The euro quotes tested the 50-EMA, around 1.1000 in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a barrier and rejected the price downwards. All moving averages (50, 100 и 200) are heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram remained at the same level which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

We do not exclude that after rolling back the euro will try to retake the level 1.0950 again. Conversely, after a daily closing above the level 1.1000 the EUR/USD may extend its gains towards 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure amid growing concerns over the hard Brexit.

Current situation

The neutral phase that started last week is still intact. The cable gapped downwards at the open on Monday. The price jumped downwards from 1.2182 to 1.2153. The pair extended its losses after the gap and stayed in a tight range 1.2140 - 1.2200 during the course of the day. The sterling remained under bearish 50-EMA which limits its growth in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages slowed down with their decline, going downwards in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening.
RSI indicator is consolidating around the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming sessions.



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY pair preserved its bid tone after the positive US retail sales report which pointed that the Fed is moving closer to raise the rates before the end of the year.

Current situation

The dollar/yen remained in an upward channel on Monday. The price moved away from the upper limit of the cannel and is struggling with the 104.00 support to go decline further. The dollar quotes approached the bullish 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA provides a solid support for the price. All moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 105.00, the support comes in at 104.00.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram remained at the same level which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

After breaking the 104.00 support the price will keep advancing south towards the mark 103.30. A bounce off the level will extend its gains toward the last week high at 104.61.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Aussie softened against the dollar and lost some of its gains amid the commodity market growth.

Current situation

The AUD/USD pair was in buy mode on Monday. The price retreated from the lows posted on Friday. The Aussie moved upwards and was able to reverse some of its losses on Monday. The pair left the short-term downward channel and is trying to extend its buying momentum now. The price seems to be moving towards the resistance area at 0.7650. The AUD/USD pair bounced from the 50 and 100 EMAs which provided a bearish support for the quotes. The price bounced off the lines and moved away from them. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support stands at 0.7600.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram remained at the same level which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the positive tone persists the AUD/USD pair may extend its near-term recovery towards 0.7650. At the same time a bearish scenario requires a close below 0.7600.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices remained unmoved on Monday, trading around 4-month lows. A stronger dollar limits the further gold recovery.

Current situation

Gold prices traded flat on Monday. The last week trading range remained intact. The XAU/USD pair made an attempt to recover in the Asian session on Monday. However, the upward momentum stopped and the price decreased and erased its recent gains. The yellow metal spent the European session at the lower end of the trading range. Gold futures remained in-between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages extended their bearish slope. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained close to the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The neutral phase will remain intact in the nearest time. The yellow metal will move between levels 1260 and 1250. We think the price will grow towards 1260 first.



Brent

General overview

Brent futures edged lower on Monday amid a stronger dollar and rise in US drilling rig number.

Current situation

Brent is turning bearish in the 4 hours chart. After a short-lived recovery in the Asian session the Brent price bounced downwards from the 52.00 mark on Monday. Sellers pushed the prices lower towards the immediate support 51.50 which slowed down its decline. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance and stopped the growing momentum, rejecting the price downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price will keep battling with the 51.50 level. If the level holds oil prices will bounce back to 52.50. In the scenario where sellers break the level the Brent quotes move lower towards 50.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened lower on Monday when Pearson (media group) and Marine Harvest (sea products producer) shares decline weighed on stocks.

Current situation

DAX index gapped downwards on Monday. The price jumped from the mark 10575 to 10538. The price briefly strengthened and was able to erase its losses. However, the recovery turned out to be short-lived and DAX soon turned around. Prices decreased to the 10500 level region during the European hours. The price is sandwiched between the 50-EMA on the one side and the 100 and 200 EMAs on the other. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance, the 100 and 200 EMAs provide a strong support for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200 EMA is slightly bullish. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

As the most probable scenario, we expect the 10500 level breakthrough and further moving downwards towards the mark at 10430.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened lower as expectations over the Fed's next monetary policy action remained a key determinant for the stocks. Investors prepared for a week full with corporate earnings reports.

Current situation

The index started the week with a recovery. S&P500 moved higher towards 2130 and was able to erase some of its losses during the Asian and European sessions on Monday. Buyers failed to retake the level and S&P500 sharply decreased at the beginning of the New York session. Prices broke upwards the 50-EMA and shortly pierced the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The index failed to hold its gains and decreased back below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2130, the support is at 2120.

MACD remained at the same level which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI remained within negative levels.

Trading recommendations

The price traded in a descending channel, staying close to its upper limit. A move above the range will weaken sellers’ positions. An uptrend will start as soon, as the S&P500 rises above the resistance level 2140. The index will extend its losses towards 2110 after breaking the support 2120.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar weakened against its main peers as the disappointing U.S. data keep weighing on it.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term descending channel on Tuesday. The price bounced off its lower limit, approaching its upper boundary during the first part of the day. The current recovery might be bears' profit taking after last week decline. The pair faced another selling pressure at the NY open. The EUR/USD gave up its recent gains and moved below 1.1000 towards 1.0950. According to the 1 hour chart the recovery action was limited by the 100-EMA near the 1.1000 region. The price bounced from the line and moved downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) keep moving lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirm the sellers’ positions strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A downtrend will start as soon, as the EUR/USD pair consolidates below the level 1.1000. The level 1.0950 is the first sellers’ target.


Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on the back of the positive Consumer Price index in the UK.

Current situation

The sterling remained in a range during the Tuesday’s trades. The price moved from its lower limit at 1.2130 and was able to escalate up to 1.2288 where the upward momentum faded. An attempt to recover was limited by the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading south in the mentioned timeframe. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

A break above the upper limit of the range will allow recovering towards 1.2400. A break below 1.2100 will suggest further weakness.



Yen

General overview

The dollar traded lower against the other major currencies following the weak Empire State manufacturing report which diminished expectations for another rate hike by Fed in 2016.

Current situation

The 3-week bullish trend remains intact. The price strengthened in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the growth was stopped by the 104.00 level, where the pair met a selling interest, pushing the price lower. The USD/JPY pair bounced off the level and headed downwards to the 103.40 region where the 50-EMA lies. The 50-EMA may provide a solid support for the quotes in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

In the potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/JPY could well be around level at 103.40. If the pressure persists the price will extend its losses towards 103.00.



NZD/USD

General overview

The kiwi strengthened due to the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report and a weaker dollar.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The NZD/USD extended its bullish momentum, struggling with 0.7200 to move higher. The price tried to break the bearish 200-EMA which limited its growth in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning upwards, following the price. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If bulls retain control and breaks above 0.7200 the NZD/USD pair will strengthen towards 0.7250. If the price fails to reclaim the level 0.7200, then this could lead to renewed selling momentum, possibly towards 0.7120.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices traded higher on Tuesday as the disappointing US inflation report pushed back expectations for another US rate hike.

Current situation

The XAU/USD remained rangebound on Tuesday. Gold prices reached the upper boundary of the range when the level 1260 dollar per ounce stopped its further recovery. The price struggled hard with the level to extend its gains, but failed. The yellow metal retreated from the daily high and continued to head lower in the North American session. The 200-EMA stopped the yellow metal strengthening in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA rejected the price downwards, towards the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA is moving downwards, the 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the overbought area and headed south.

Trading recommendations

If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1260 resistance area then we could see its growth towards 1270 dollar per ounce. At the same time bearish scenario requires close below 2150 dollar per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices remained positive on Tuesday as some analysts believe that the market is not so oversupplied as it was suggested earlier.

Current situation

Brent gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. Prices jumped from 51.67 to 51.70 dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil continued with its recovery later the day. The price reached the mark 52.00 which appeared to be a pivot point. The price turned around and headed lower towards 51.50. However, the downward pressure quickly faded and the price stopped a few pips above 51.50. The 50-EMA became a barrier on its way upwards in the 4 hours chart. The line rejected the price, sending it downwards. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Bears are attempting to control the market. If they succeed the price will break 51.50. After breaking the level bears will move towards 50.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks sentiment improved due to oil prices growth and as investors began preparing for the ECB meeting this Thursday.

Current situation

The DAX index ended its 4-day decline and opened on a positive note on Tuesday. The price gapped higher at the open and extended its gains towards 10656, breaking the level 10600 on its way up. Having refreshed the weekly high the index rolled back towards 10600. The price jumped over the 50 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is within overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A daily close above 10600 will indicate a continuation of the upward movement. Buyers will push the price towards 10700. A close below 10600 may trigger a downward movement towards 10500.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened higher fallowing the positive Consumer Price index. Investors keep weighing up corporate earnings reports.

Current situation

NASDAQ held a bullish tone yesterday. The index continued moving higher, breaking above the previous day’s top. The price broke the level 4835 and was able to extend its gains towards 4848 where the bullish spike faded and NASDAQ rolled back. The 100-EMA stopped the upward momentum. The price bounced off the moving average and headed downwards below the 50-EMA. The 100 and 50 EMA direction is downwards. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish. The resistance is seen at 4850, the support is at 4800.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The index remained in a broad range descending channel. The price tested its upper boundary on Tuesday. A break above the line will indicate that the negative sentiment is over. In this potential scenario, buyers will lead the price to 4865.

If the price fixates below the level 4835 NASDAQ may return to a decline.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar weakened against its main peers as the disappointing U.S. data keep weighing on it.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term descending channel on Tuesday. The price bounced off its lower limit, approaching its upper boundary during the first part of the day. The current recovery might be bears' profit taking after last week decline. The pair faced another selling pressure at the NY open. The EUR/USD gave up its recent gains and moved below 1.1000 towards 1.0950. According to the 1 hour chart the recovery action was limited by the 100-EMA near the 1.1000 region. The price bounced from the line and moved downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) keep moving lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirm the sellers’ positions strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

A downtrend will start as soon, as the EUR/USD pair consolidates below the level 1.1000. The level 1.0950 is the first sellers’ target.


Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on the back of the positive Consumer Price index in the UK.

Current situation

The sterling remained in a range during the Tuesday’s trades. The price moved from its lower limit at 1.2130 and was able to escalate up to 1.2288 where the upward momentum faded. An attempt to recover was limited by the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading south in the mentioned timeframe. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

A break above the upper limit of the range will allow recovering towards 1.2400. A break below 1.2100 will suggest further weakness.



Yen

General overview

The dollar traded lower against the other major currencies following the weak Empire State manufacturing report which diminished expectations for another rate hike by Fed in 2016.

Current situation

The 3-week bullish trend remains intact. The price strengthened in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the growth was stopped by the 104.00 level, where the pair met a selling interest, pushing the price lower. The USD/JPY pair bounced off the level and headed downwards to the 103.40 region where the 50-EMA lies. The 50-EMA may provide a solid support for the quotes in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

In the potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/JPY could well be around level at 103.40. If the pressure persists the price will extend its losses towards 103.00.



NZD/USD

General overview

The kiwi strengthened due to the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report and a weaker dollar.

Current situation

The pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The NZD/USD extended its bullish momentum, struggling with 0.7200 to move higher. The price tried to break the bearish 200-EMA which limited its growth in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning upwards, following the price. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If bulls retain control and breaks above 0.7200 the NZD/USD pair will strengthen towards 0.7250. If the price fails to reclaim the level 0.7200, then this could lead to renewed selling momentum, possibly towards 0.7120.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices traded higher on Tuesday as the disappointing US inflation report pushed back expectations for another US rate hike.

Current situation

The XAU/USD remained rangebound on Tuesday. Gold prices reached the upper boundary of the range when the level 1260 dollar per ounce stopped its further recovery. The price struggled hard with the level to extend its gains, but failed. The yellow metal retreated from the daily high and continued to head lower in the North American session. The 200-EMA stopped the yellow metal strengthening in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA rejected the price downwards, towards the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA is moving downwards, the 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained in the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the overbought area and headed south.

Trading recommendations

If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1260 resistance area then we could see its growth towards 1270 dollar per ounce. At the same time bearish scenario requires close below 2150 dollar per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices remained positive on Tuesday as some analysts believe that the market is not so oversupplied as it was suggested earlier.

Current situation

Brent gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. Prices jumped from 51.67 to 51.70 dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil continued with its recovery later the day. The price reached the mark 52.00 which appeared to be a pivot point. The price turned around and headed lower towards 51.50. However, the downward pressure quickly faded and the price stopped a few pips above 51.50. The 50-EMA became a barrier on its way upwards in the 4 hours chart. The line rejected the price, sending it downwards. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Bears are attempting to control the market. If they succeed the price will break 51.50. After breaking the level bears will move towards 50.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks sentiment improved due to oil prices growth and as investors began preparing for the ECB meeting this Thursday.

Current situation

The DAX index ended its 4-day decline and opened on a positive note on Tuesday. The price gapped higher at the open and extended its gains towards 10656, breaking the level 10600 on its way up. Having refreshed the weekly high the index rolled back towards 10600. The price jumped over the 50 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is within overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A daily close above 10600 will indicate a continuation of the upward movement. Buyers will push the price towards 10700. A close below 10600 may trigger a downward movement towards 10500.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened higher fallowing the positive Consumer Price index. Investors keep weighing up corporate earnings reports.

Current situation

NASDAQ held a bullish tone yesterday. The index continued moving higher, breaking above the previous day’s top. The price broke the level 4835 and was able to extend its gains towards 4848 where the bullish spike faded and NASDAQ rolled back. The 100-EMA stopped the upward momentum. The price bounced off the moving average and headed downwards below the 50-EMA. The 100 and 50 EMA direction is downwards. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish. The resistance is seen at 4850, the support is at 4800.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

The index remained in a broad range descending channel. The price tested its upper boundary on Tuesday. A break above the line will indicate that the negative sentiment is over. In this potential scenario, buyers will lead the price to 4865.

If the price fixates below the level 4835 NASDAQ may return to a decline.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened against the US dollar on the back of the weak data and Fed officials’ ambiguous comments regarding the rate.

Current situation

The bearish trend remained intact in the 4 hours chart. The EUR/USD pair was decisively trading below the 1.1000 level. The market was fairly balanced during the Asian session on Wednesday. The price stayed between the marks 1.0970 and 1.1000. The euro moved down towards 1.0950 during the European trades. The euro quotes broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart in the Asian session. The 100-EMA rejected the price downwards. The EUR/USD was in-between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the early European hours and moved below the lines ahead of the US opening. All moving averages accelerated their decline in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD is in the negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI headed towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Negative technical studies maintained bearish pressure. A break below 1.0950 will suggest a further weakness towards 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on Wednesday due to the positive labour market report. The unemployment level has remained unchanged despite the Brexit referendum results.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained in bulls' hands on Wednesday. Bulls pushed the price towards 1.2300. The sterling was battling with the resistance 1.2300 during the day. The pound quotes broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and snapped the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA became an initial barrier for the price which was struggling to take it out during the day. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the same chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD entered the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Our short-term outlook remains bullish. A break above 1.2300 risks a growth towards the resistance at 1.2400.



Yen

General overview

The US dollar weakened against its main peers following the recent US data. Traders were cautious ahead of U.S. Building Permits release.

Current situation

The 4 hours chart for the pair presents a moderate bearish potential. The price finally broke the consolidation range and made a good break below 104.00. Sellers pushed the quotes towards 103.00. The 50-EMA stopped the downward momentum in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) extended their growth. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD entered the oversold area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved towards the overvalued levels.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY is approaching the 103.00 level. A move below the level would indicate that the immediate upward pressure eased. In this scenario, sellers will push the price further towards the 102.50 region. A bounce off the 103.00 level will return buyers in the game.



USD/CAD

General overview

The commodity currencies like loonie strengthened following oil prices growth.

Current situation

The pair retained a neutral, short-term undertone. The USD/CAD extended its recovery and touched the daily high at 1.3128 before retreating downwards. The price spent the day within a tight range 1.3130 - 1.3080. The USD/CAD pair bounced downwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is at 1.3150, the support stands at 1.3050.

MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The USD/CAD is approaching the support 1.3050. If the price breaks this support, the pair may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.3000 mark.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices grew amid uncertainty over the timing of future Fed rate hikes.

Current situation

The gold hold the upbeat tone vs. its American peer on Wednesday. The XAU/USD finally left the range and extended its gains during the European session on Wednesday. Buyers led the price from the level 1260 towards 1270 per ounce. The bullish spike faded around the immediate resistance where prices spent the rest of the day. The pair broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA which stopped its growth in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still moving downwards. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is going north which confirms the current upward movement.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 1270 resistance area. A successful break above the level will send prices towards the next resistance at 1280 dollar per ounce.



Brent

General overview

A fall in U.S. crude stocks together with a planned output cut next month support oil prices.

Current situation

Brent futures remained rangebound between the current support and resistance. Bulls pushed the price from the lower end of the range towards its upper one. Buyers moved Brent futures towards 52.50 dollars per barrel where the buying momentum faded. Oil prices bounced off the level and spent the European session slightly below it. The price stays in the 50-EMA region which provides a solid resistance for oil futures. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in a neutral area.

Trading recommendations

If the 52.50 dollars per barrel level can hold Brent futures could decline to 51.50. A clear strength above this immediate resistance will pave way towards 53.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks opened lower as investors digested the Chinese data and European corporate earning reports.

Current situation

DAX index opened bearish yesterday. The price gapped higher at the opening and filled the gap after declining back to 10600. The level 10600 appeared to be a tough nut to crack. The price rolled back in early European trades and made another attempt to break below the level lately. Sellers again failed to reclaim the 10600 level, the price bounced off the level and moved to the 10650 region. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept moving higher with the 50-EMA crossing the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

The MACD indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The near term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 10500.



S&P500

General overview

American stocks opened higher on Wednesday on the back of the strong quarterly earnings.

Current situation

The index was positive yesterday despite the negative spike in early European trades. Sellers failed to retake the level 2130, the price bounced from the support and jumped to the 2135 region. The growing momentum was stopped by the 50-EMA which rejected the price downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral during the day.

Trading recommendations

The bearish tone persists. The S&P500 index may try to retake the level 2130 after a current roll back. The next level to focus on is 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD remained unchanged after the ECB left its monetary stance unchanged.

Current situation

The price maintained its bearish tone on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair stayed around its recent lows during the day. The euro slightly strengthened towards 1.1000 ahead of the US opening. The 50-EMA limited the euro recovery in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative area.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.0950 seems the next probable bearish target. After breaking the level sellers will lead the price towards 1.0900. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards the 1.1000 resistance region.



Pound

General overview

The pound edged lower on Thursday following worse-than-expected Retail Sales release.

Current situation

The GBP/USD pair remained near its recent highs, consolidating its gains. The pound traded flat, staying within a tight range between 1.2300 - 1.2260.The prices moved downwards from the upper limit of the range towards its lower boundary during the day. According to the 1 hour chart the price is sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAS. All moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD is having difficulties to go any higher. If the pound manages to break above the current resistance it will be able to test the level 1.2400. On the other side, a break below 1.2200 will erase its recent gains and will return sellers in the game.



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY edged higher on growing expectations over the Fed's monetary policy action.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained in a wide sideways channel in the 4 hours chart. The price reached the lower limit of the range on Wednesday and bounced upwards after testing it. Bulls were able to reverse most of its latest losses on Thursday. The pair was able to escalate up to 103.75 ahead of NY opening. In the 4 hours chart the price met a strong barrier in the 103.00 region, around the 100-EMA which rejected the pair upwards. The pair returned above the 50-EMA and stayed there during the day in the mentioned chart. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD is negative. However, MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

After rolling back the price may take another chance to reclaim the level 103.00. If sellers manage to break the level through the price will decline towards 102.50, around the 200-EMA. Alternatively, the USD/JPY will move above 104.00.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar moved lower vs. its U.S peer after mixed unemployment data release on Thursday.

Current situation

The price encountered significant losses on Thursday. After touching the level 0.7730 the prices turned around and sharply fell. The pair broke the 0.7690 level and tested 0.7650 on its way down. The downward impetus faded around the daily low. The AUD/USD broke the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The price is approaching the 100-EMA in the same timeframe. The 50-EMA is turning down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still heading north. The resistance is at 0. 7690, the support stands at 0. 7650.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area and headed towards the negative levels.

Trading recommendations

If the price overcomes 0.7650 and moves downwards we will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. After breaking the current support level prices will trend towards 0.7625.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices remained near 2-week highs as speculations over Fed rate-hike continued.

Current situation

Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. The recovery from 1260 stalled at the 1270 level which hold onslaught of bulls. The XAU/USD pair traded in a narrow sideways range of 50 pips or less during the course of the trades. The 100-EMA limits yellow metal further strengthening in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is consolidating within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The tone is still positive in the market. Should gold prices advance beyond the 1270 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 1280 dollar per ounce. A move below the level will ease buyers’ positions, giving them a chance to move the price to the monthly lows.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on Thursday after a rally on the back of large U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week.

Current situation

Brent prices gave up its recent highs and sharply fell in the Asian session on Thursday. The ongoing decline could be attributed to some profit taking from bulls following a 3-day rally. Sellers pushed the price below 52.50 and met a barrier in the 52.00 region. The oil quotes continued with a decline during the North American session. The price broke the 50-EMA and headed lower towards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral in the same chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

Our near term outlook is bearish. To trigger additional downward momentum oil prices need to break 52.00 and move below 51.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks traded mixed on Thursday. Market participants waited for the ECB’s meeting results and Mario Draghi’s press-conference.

Current situation

The index extended its near-term upward trajectory on Thursday. DAX gapped higher at the opening and extended its gains during the Asian session yesterday. Prices touched the level 10700 and immediately rolled back, spending the day below the level. The price hovered above the moving averages on yesterday’s trades. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

The DAX index may attempt to reclaim the 10700 level again. If prices break the level the index will extend its gains towards 10750.



NASDAQ

General overview

The American Stocks edged higher at opening after the third and final U.S. presidential debates. NASDAQ turned lower during the NY session ahead of U.S. fresh statistics.

Current situation

The price stayed opened above the level 4835, trading in a tight range of 50 pips on Thursday. Sellers seem to be guarding the mark 4845 as the price bounces from the level on every attempt to grow. NASDAQ eased and moved lower in the New York session. The index struggled with the 100-EMA to grow further in the 4 hours chart. After bouncing from the moving average, the price moved to the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the index. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is going downwards, the 200-EMA is moderately bullish. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

A strong breakdown and close above 4845 could send prices higher towards 4865. A return below 4835 will increase selling momentum towards 4800.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar traded near fresh 7-month highs on the final trading day of this week. The EUR/USD pair edged lower as the latest M. Draghi's remarks weighed on the euro, at the same time the U.S. rate hike hopes supported the US dollar.

Current situation

Bears have the ball now. Sellers pushed the euro lower, the price broke the level 1.0900 and headed towards 1.0830. The pair continues developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) keep heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.0900, the support stands at 1.0830.

MACD is negative. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator is within negative territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD pair is heading towards 1.0830. Should that level break down and the price will decline to 1.0780. We also expect a profit taking from bears after three-day sell-off. The prices may recover to 1.0950.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure amid the return of the hard Brexit concerns. According to the U.K. Office for National Statistics Public Sector Net Borrowing grew in September.

Current situation

The pound remained vulnerable on Friday. Sellers continued to dominate and were able to push the price lower. The pair moved below 1.2300 and approached the level 1.2200 in the European session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair broke the level before the NY opening. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance and does not let the price to grow in the 4 hours chart. The pound bounced off the level and trended downwards from it. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs continued moving lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south.

Trading recommendations

A move below the 1.2200 support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend. The prices may move lower towards 1.2100.



Yen

General overview

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) the regulator may extend timing for reaching its inflation target.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair turned negative after opening on Friday. After two-day recovery the price reached the level 104.00. Buyers were unable to retake the level, the price turned around and got under selling pressure. The pair traded around 103.75 Post-European open. The USD/JPY hovered over the moving averages in the 1 hours chart. The prices touched the 50-EMA which rejected them upwards. The 50-EMA provided a temporally support for the dollar. The moving averages are moderately bullish in the same chart. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the overbought area and headed downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the bearish scenario prevails the USD/JPY pair will face additional selling pressure. Sellers will lead the price towards 103.50 first. After breaking the mark the pair will move to 103.00.



NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD/USD declined as expectations for the next U.S. rate hike kept supporting the US dollar.

Current situation

Kiwi was a little changed on Friday and remained prone to more weakness. Sellers kept pushing the price lower below 0.7200. The price stalled its decline around 0.7160 in the European trade. The pair broke the 200-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA provides a solid support and does not allow its further weakness. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0. 7120.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 0.7160 the NZD/USD may test 0.7120. If the price bounces from the mark 0.7160 the pair may recover up to 0.7200.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices edged lower on Friday following the U.S. dollar strengthening. Meanwhile, the latest ECB’s decision supported the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold prices traded mixed on Friday. The yellow metal traded lower the half of the day and higher the other half. Sellers moved the price to the level 1260 dollar per ounce which appeared a solid barrier for it. The pair bounced from the level and reversed some of its losses. The XAU/USD traded in the 1264 region ahead of the NY session. The 50-EMA stopped the further gold prices weakening in the 4 hours chart. The price bounced off the line and moved higher to the 100-EMA. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

A bearish continuation through 1260 should lead to a continued slide, with 1255 as the first probable target. A close below this mark will allow sellers to move lower towards 1250 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices strengthened on Friday on Russia's output freeze commitment. Although a stronger dollar limited oil prices growth.

Current situation

Brent prices were in sell mode during the European session on Friday. The prices started the day around 51.50 and stayed under pressure during the day. Oil prices rose at the start of the NY session and closed the week bullish. The prices bounced upwards from the bullish 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA on its way upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

A consolidation above the 52.00 mark may extend bullish momentum. In the scenario where the buyers keep control Brent futures may recover back to 52.50 dollars per barrel. Otherwise, a move below 51.50 will weaken buying momentum and switch the market sentiment. In this potential scenario sellers will move the price towards 50.50 dollars per barrel.



DAX

General overview

European stocks edged higher on Friday amid a weaker euro and strong corporate earning reports.

Current situation

The DAX index traded bearish on Friday. The prices stayed above the level 10700 during the European trades. However, the index gets under selling pressure on any up-move from the level. DAX moved below the level ahead of the New York session and returned above the level at close of trade. The moving averages are pointing higher in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is seen at 10800, the support is at 10700.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within positive area.

Trading recommendations

In order to take a good position we will wait for prices to break below 10700. A solid consolidation below the level will indicate a growing strength of sellers. In this potential scenario the price will drop to 10600.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street closed higher as Consumer Services, Technology and Consumer Goods sectors strengthened.

Current situation

S&P500 opened on a weaker note on Friday. The index continued to lose its value during the European session. Prices declined from 2135 towards 2123 during the first part of the day. S&P500 turned around at the beginning of NY session. The price returned above 2130, reversing some of its losses. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The index headed towards the 100-EMA in the same time frame. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

If S&P500 manages a break below 2130 and stays there we would likely be selling the index towards 2120. If the price stays above the level the index we will buy it towards 2140.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD strengthened on the back of stronger Services PMI in the EU on Monday.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair opened on a weaker note on Monday. The price remained near last week low during the day. The pair bounced off the border of the oversold zone and reversed some of its losses in the European session. The price grew to 1.0900 where the upward momentum faded. According to 1 hour chart the price remained below the moving averages which are all pointing lower. The resistance comes in at 1.0900, the support stands at 1.0830.

The MACD chart slightly changed from last week. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

The longer term outlook will be bearish as long as the price holds below 1.1000. The price is oversold and may recover towards 1.0950. We expect a downtrend will continue in the nearest time.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure due to a lack of market movers and a stronger dollar.

Current situation

The neutral phase that started a week ago is still intact. The GBP/USD pair traded in the middle of the tight range between 1.2300 - 1.2200. The price recovered to 1.2250 in the European session where the upward spike faded as the pair encountered bears' resistance. The 1 hour chart shows that the pound broke the 50-EMA and pierced 100 EMAs. The price struggled with a bearish 100-EMA during the day. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

If the GBP/USD continues its recovery we can see it advancing towards 1.2300/30 region. A move below 1.2200 will aim the pair at 1.2100.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened following the positive Trade Balance report and Manufacturing PMI for October.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure in the mid-European session. The pair again failed to break above 104.00 and returned below the level. The price was in-between the mark 103.70 and the level 104.00 on Monday. The 50-EMA provided a solid support for the pair. The price tested the line and bounce upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading upwards. The resistance can be found at 104.60, the support comes in at 104.00.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe buyers will keep trying to take out the level 104.00. Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the USD/JPY stays above 103.00. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards 103.00.



USD/CAD

General overview

The U.S. dollar grew against its Canadian counterpart amid reviving hopes of a Fed rate-hike in December. Meanwhile the weak Canadian data weighed on the CAD.

Current situation

The USD/CAD traded near last week highs on Monday. The pair was neutral and stayed above 1.3330 during the day. The price is well above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1.3400, the support stands at 1.3330.

MACD is within the positive territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

The overall tone is bullish. Buyers may push the price higher to test 1.3400. The price may slightly soften towards 1.3250.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices slightly changed on Monday. The U.S. dollar strengthening continued weighing on the XAU/USD pair.

Current situation

Our near-term studies are negative. The XAU/USD traded in a tight range: 1262 - 1266 on Monday. Prices struggled with the 1260 level which is defended by buyers. According to 4 hours chart the price is between the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their decline. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

A clear break below 1260 dollars per ounce will extend gold losses towards 1250. Conversely, the price may continue struggling with the 1270 level. If succeeded yellow metal will grow to 1275 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices fell when Iraq refused to join an output freeze. A growth in the US rig count numbers weighed on oil prices as well.

Current situation

Brent prices traded flat, staying in a narrow range between 51.50 and 52.00 dollars per barrel. Sellers seemed to be guarding the mark 52.00 as the price bounced from the level on every attempt to the upside. The selling pressure increased at the start of the NY session. Brent futures broke the level 51.50 and moved lower towards 51.00. Oil futures bounced off the 50-EMA, broke the 100-EMA and headed south in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA direction is downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator moved downwards

Trading recommendations

If the downward pressure persists Brent may decrease further towards 51.00. The second bears’ target is the level 50.00.



DAX

General overview

European stocks were in buy mode yesterday. The better-than-expected Manufacturing and Services PMI releases in Germany and France supported the stocks.

Current situation

Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. The index extended its near-term upward trajectory on Monday. The price got under buying pressure. Buyers pushed the price from 10700 towards 10800 where the upward momentum stalled. Prices remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA. All moving averages are heading higher. The resistance is seen at 10800, the support is at 10700.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI is in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

A break above 10800 risks a strengthening towards the resistance at 10900.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD was little changed on Tuesday despite strong Business Climate and Expectations in Germany.

Current situation

The euro was little changed on Tuesday. The common currency remained below the level 1.0900 during the day. The price traded in a tight range between the mark 1.0865 and the level 1.0900. The pair stayed below the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the price, rejecting its attempts to grow. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower in the mentioned time frame. The resistance comes in at 1.0900, the support lies at 1.0830.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI is within oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The pair may extend its recovery if it breaks the level 1.0900 upwards. In this scenario the EUR/USD may grow to 1.0950. The level 1.0830 remains the next probable bearish target.



Pound

General overview

There were no macroeconomic releases in the UK. The BOE's Governor Carney speech was the main event on Tuesday.

Current situation

Sellers continued to dominate in the market on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remained under pressure in a narrow range, trading a few pips above 1.2100. The pair was sandwiched between 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 100-EMA provided a solid resistance and limited the pound further recovery. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their decline. All moving averages are pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support is at 1.2100.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to sell now. After breaking 1.2200 the price will move towards 1.2100.



Yen

General overview

The improved investors’ appetite for riskier assets weighed on the yen, maintaining its strong ask tone.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair looked very bullish yesterday. The pair remained in an ascending channel, trading close to its two-week highs. The USD/JPY extended its gains and grew from 104.11 to 104.60. The price is above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 104.60, the support comes in at 104.00.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought area levels.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY pair approached the overbought area where the price turned around last time. The price will remain under buying pressure until it holds above 103.60. We expect a short-term decline back to the 104.00 - 103.70 support area.



AUD/USD

General overview

The dollar strengthened across the board after stronger Manufacturing PMI data and the Fed officials’ remarks. The dollar is strong amid growing expectations that the Fed would hike the rates in December.

Current situation

The AUD spiked upwards in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price jumped from the level 0.7600 up to 0.7625. Buyers failed to break the level 0.7625, the price turned around and decreased, erasing its previous gains. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The AUD/USD pair broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the same chart and hovered above them during the day. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support can be found at 0.7625.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening.
RSI returned to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Buyers may try to retake 0.7650. If the level holds the Aussie may return to 0.7600. If succeeded buyers will lead the price to 0.7675.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold futures edged higher on Tuesday, however, its gains were limited by a stronger dollar. The U.S dollar strengthened after the Fed officials’ hawkish remarks regarding a rate hike in December.

Current situation

The XAU/USD pair traded flat on Tuesday. The price remained between 1270 and 1260 dollars per ounce during the day. Gold prices struggled to find support around 1260. Sellers failed to break the level and the yellow metal bounced upwards and recovered to the upper boundary of the range. The pair bounced from the 50-EMA and headed towards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their decline. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollars per ounce.

The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed in overbought area levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

After breaking through the current resistance, the XAU/USD will most likely move up to around the 1280 level. Conversely, if the resistance 1270 holds a move towards 1260 dollars per ounce could be the next step.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices strengthened on Tuesday on expectations of a planned output cut by the OPEC.

Current situation

After a sharp drop on Monday oil prices recovered on Tuesday. The price grew from the level 50.50 to 51.81 overnight. Buyers failed to move the price higher, Brent returned to selling on the back of profit taking. The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA which acted as a resistance for it. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI is within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

If Brent maintains its bearish momentum oil prices will drop below 51.50. A cut through here will aim at the 50.50 level.



DAX

General overview

European stocks maintained their bullish tone. The increase in earning of Randstad and Orange supported the markets.

Current situation

DAX gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. Prices jumped from 10757 to 10785. The index extended its gains after the gap. The price tested the level 10800, set a new daily high at 10834 and rolled back below the level. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) kept heading north. The resistance is seen at 10800, the support is at 10700.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is within overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The index will remain under pressure unless it breaks and holds above 10800. After breaking the level the market would look a little stronger with the level 10900 as a target area.



S&P500

General overview

Wall Street little changed in the NY session on Tuesday, traders awaited for corporate earnings reports, including Apple.

Current situation

The index extended its gains on Tuesday. The price was able to escalate to 2150 Post-European open. Buyers failed to take out the level, the price rolled, erasing its latest gains. The index broke the 100-EMA and moved upwards to the 200-EMA where the line stopped its further recovery. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The index may extend its losses towards 2140. A clear break below the level may send the price looking for the 2130 level test.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.10.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened on the back of the positive PMI Composite and IFO reports in EU and Germany.

Current situation

The EUR/USD spent the day on a positive note. The pair slightly grew in the Asian session on Wednesday and extended its gains during the European hours. The price was able to escalate to 1.0950 where a bullish spike faded. The 50-EMA stopped the upward impetus in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.0950, the support lies at 1.0900.

MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI is approaching the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1.0950 resistance area then we could see it growing towards 1.0980. A return below 1.0900 will send the EUR/USD to 1.0850.



Pound

General overview

The pound moved higher following the positive Mortgage Approvals release on Wednesday.

Current situation

The pound slightly strengthened against the US dollar on Wednesday. The price rallied from the mark 1.2154 to 1.2245. However, buyers failed to push the price higher during the European hours. The price briefly broke the level 1.2200 and returned below the level ahead of the NY opening. The 50-EMA stopped the growing momentum. The moving averages are pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support is at 1.2100.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The inability to move the price higher points to sellers’ presence. A move below 1.2200 will signal the return of sellers who will try to move the GBP/USD lower towards 1.2150.



Yen

General overview

The dollar is strong across the board amid increasing bets that the Fed hike rare in December. However, cautious sentiment around equity market supported the yen, stabilizing the USD/JPY pair.

Current situation

The USD/JPY pair remained around recent lows. The price found a solid support around 104.00 and spent the day above it. The upward trend remained intact. The price is still in an ascending channel, staying close to its lower limit. The 50-EMA stopped the downward impetus in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 104.60, the support comes in at 104.00.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

If the pair remains in an upward channel the price may reverse its losses and grew to 104.60. A move below 104.00 will signal about buyers’ weakness and may give sellers a chance to move the price lower,



NZD/USD

General overview

The dollar moved from 9-month high on Wednesday. Despite the latest decline the dollar is strong on expectations of Fed rate-hike by the end of 2016.

Current situation

After one week decline the pair regained its lost ground and jumped to weekly high levels. Buyers moved the price to the mark 0.7180 where the growing momentum faded. The price encountered a solid resistance in the face of the 200-EMA which rejected it downwards in the 4 hours chart. The pair was between the 200 and 100 EMAs ahead of the NY opening. The moving averages kept moving lower. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support can be found at 0.7120.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD decrease which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved upwards.

Trading recommendations

Bears will retain control if the price bounces downwards from the 200-EMA. Sellers will lead the price towards 0.7120. After breaking the level the price may drop to 0.7080.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices strengthened on Wednesday amid US dollar weakening across the board. The dollar moved from the 9 week highs increasing demand for the yellow metal.

Current situation

After a short-lived rally gold prices stopped above 1270 dollars per ounce, hovering above the level the whole day. Buyers seem to be unable to move the price higher. The pair is turning around and is about to decline now. The price is struggling with the 100-EMA to move lower. The 100-EMA is neutral, the 200-EMA is moving lower, the 50-EMA is turning upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1280, the support comes in at 1270 dollars per ounce.

MACD is in the positive area. MACD decrease which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

Failure to hold above 1270 risks a decline towards 1260 dollars per ounce.



Brent

General overview

Oil prices fell on Wednesday amid fading hopes that the OPEC members would come to an agreement with the output deal.

Current situation

Brent oil futures extended losses from the previous sessions on Wednesday. The price broke the level 50.50 and continued to lose its value. After breaking the level Brent futures moved lower and approached the next support area around 49.50. Oil futures approached the 200-EMA which may act as a support for them. The 200-EMA maintained its bullish direction, while the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decrease which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI is within oversold area.

Trading recommendations

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. After breaking 49.50 Brent oil futures might extend its losses towards 48.50. We do not exclude taking profit from bears after a recent decline.



DAX

General overview

European stocks traded on a weaker note on Wednesday. Investors continued weighing up the latest corporate earnings report.

Current situation

The index suffered a short lived downward movement. DAX had a sharp drop below the support level of 10700. After breaking the mentioned level the prices moved lower and rapidly approached the level 10600. The price struggled with the 50-EMA to grind lower. The moving averages in the 4 hours chart maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decrease which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

DAX may extend its losses towards 10600. Should this mark be reached successfully, an extension towards 10550 could be observed further. A recovery due to profit-taking towards 10700 is possible.



NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Wednesday as Apple disappointing earnings and weaker oil prices dragged the shared down. The market will be focused on Boeing and Coca-Cola Company earnings reports in the coming sessions.

Current situation

The sentiment remained negative in the market. The bearish momentum was strong enough to push the price lower on Wednesday. The NASDAQ index broke 4865 and headed towards 4835. The price is approaching the neutral 100-EMA which may slow down its weakening. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral, while the 50-EMA is heading higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decrease which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator is heading north.

Trading recommendations

The level 4835 remains the key support area to watch for. A bearish continuation through 4835 should lead to a continued slide, with 4800 as the first probable target. On the other hand, a return above 4865 will neutralize our near term negative outlook.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.10.2016

Euro

General overview

There were no major events on the schedule in the EU. The market was focused on Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders releases.

Current situation

The EUR/USD pair was weak during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price touched the level 1.0900 where the downward momentum faded. The pair bounced off the level and was able to strengthen, reversing some of its losses in the European tardes. According to 1 hour chart the price is above 100-EMA which provides a solid support for the euro. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, while the 200-EMA is heading south. The resistance comes in at 1.0950, the support lies at 1.0900.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.0900 limits the euro weakening. Should that level break down and the EUR/USD may move to 1.0850. A daily close above 1.0950 will ease the downward pressure and will allow the common currency to strengthen towards 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

The better-than-expected GDP report temporally supported the pound. The sterling was able to strengthen across the board. However, the US dollar quickly reversed its losses, limiting the further pound gains.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained within a narrow range not far from the 1.2200 support level during the day on Thursday. Its latest recovery was stopped around the mark 1.2150 which knocked-off the rate downwards. The pound spent the night at the 1.2200 handle and slightly strengthened in the mid-European session. The GBP/USD weakened in the North American session. The sterling bounced from the 50-EMA, around 1.2200 in the 1 hour chart. The GBP/USD moved upwards and broke the 200-EMA in the same chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, while the 200-EMA is moving downwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support is at 1.2200.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved towards the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the GBP weakness persists the GBP/USD pair will get below 1.2200. In this scenario, sellers will move the price towards 1.2100. A move above 1.2300 would ease the downward pressure. Buyers will be able to push the price to 1.2350.



Yen

General overview

The dollar remains around three-month highs against the yen. The US treasury yields strengthening and expectations over the Fed rate-hike support the US dollar across the board.

Current situation

The dollar grew above the yen on Thursday. The USD/JPY reversed all its losses which it had suffered the other day. The price remained in an upward channel. The pair bounced off its lowest limit and moved towards 105.00 during the course of the day. The price developed well above the moving averages which are all pointing higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 105.00, the support comes in at 104.50.

MACD has formed signal to rise. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

To retain bullishness for further gain to 105.00 the USD/JPY needs to hold above 104.50. On the other hand, a daily close below 104.50 would risk the 104.00 level.



USD/CAD

General overview

The current crude oil correction kept on weighing on CAD. Besides, the BoC dovish comments last week weakened near-term Canadian dollar perspectives.

Current situation

The USD/CAD bullish perspective remained intact on Thursday. The pair stayed almost unchanged around 1.3400 which appeared to be a critical barrier for the pair. The price slightly moved lower ahead of the NY opening. The USD/CAD stayed above the moving averages with a bullish 50-EMA providing support for the price in the 1 hour chart. The pair seems to be struggling with the 50-EMA to move lower now. All moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are pointing higher in the mentioned time frame. The resistance is at 1.3400, the support can be found at 1.3330.

The MACD indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. RSI stuck within overvalued area.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1.3400 will allow the dollar to extend its gains towards 1.3470. A break below 1.3330 should send this market looking for the 1.3250 level.



XAUUSD

General overview

Gold strengthened on Thursday as the uncertainty over the timing of future rate hike and the upcoming the United States presidential election of 2016 support the safe-heaven demand. Besides, gold prices extended their gains after disappointing U.S. durables goods data.

Current situation

Gold prices slightly changed during the day, remaining around 1270 dollars per ounce. The price was inactive after a sharp decrease on Wednesday. The XAU/USD slightly grew from 1265 to 1270, reversing a minor portion of its recent losses. The pair tested the level 1270 ahead of the NY session. Yellow metal remained between the 100 and 50 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, while the 200-EMA is pointing lower. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollars per ounce.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The pair may return to monthly high at 1275 after a daily close above the level 1270 dollars per ounce. A close below 1265 will retain the downward pressure.



Brent

General overview

The persisting political instability in Venezuela combined with stronger Asian demand slowed down oil prices weakening, providing them temporal support.

Current situation

Brent oil prices had a positive day on Thursday. After a sharp decline the other day the price moved upwards, erasing its previous losses. The price moved higher on the back of profit taking. Besides, several fundamental factors supported the demand for Brent futures. Prices accelerated their growth at the NY opening. Brent oil futures broke the level 50.50 and extended their gains towards 51.50. The price bounced from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 50 EMAs are pointing lower. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which confirms the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI bounced off the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

If the immediate upward pressure persists Brent futures might extend the recovery towards 51.50.



DAX

General overview

European stocks edged lower despite positive earnings reports from Deutsche Bank and Barclays. The commodity sectors weakening led losses in Europe.

Current situation

DAX enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Thursday. The index was growing during the Asian hours and turned lower post-European open. Prices were able to strengthen to 10778 where sudden downward impetus sent prices below the current support 10700. Buyers did not have strength to recover, the benchmark got under selling pressure on any up-move above the level. The price failed to take out the 50-EMA which provided a strong resistance for it. The 50-EMA rejected the DAX index downwards, the price got under 100-EMA which provided additional resistance for the price. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decrease which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral during the day.

Trading recommendations

The level 10800 seems the next probable bullish target. A daily close below 10700 might force the DAX index to resume its downward trajectory.



S&P500

General overview

The U.S stocks traded higher during the day and turned lower at the beginning of the New York session. The stocks turned lower despite strong quarterly earnings report in the healthcare and technology sectors.

Current situation

The index trade higher during the Asian and European sessions on Thursday. The benchmark turned lower at the beginning of the NY session. The price broke the level 2140 and set a daily high at 2143 when the price turned down and dropped below the level. After breaking the level S&P500 extended its losses and moved towards 2130. Prices bounced off the 200-EMA, turned around and broke the 100 and 50 EMAs on its way downwards. All moving averages are pointing lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI oscillator is within neutral area.

Trading recommendations

The S&P500 now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 2130. A solid break below the level will send the market towards 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman