"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

14.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The risk aversion and the growth of the pair EUR/GBP supported the euro. The economic calendar was empty on Monday as a result we had a low volatile day. Now the attention of the market is turned to the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD spent almost the whole Monday at the level of 1.1250. The pair consolidated after a sharp decrease that had happened last week. The quotes began its correction during the American session. The EUR/USD managed to test 1.1300. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support is at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The rebound above 1.1250 should be considered corrective.
The 50 Moving Average is directed downwards, that is a sell signal

Trading recommendations

The market looks bearish. We feel comfortable taking short-term sell positions. Shall the pair decrease it will fall to 1.1130. We also do not exclude a corrective growth to the level 1.1370 if the price bounces upwards from the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200).



Pound

General overview

The British pound fell against the US dollar last week as investors are seriously concerned that the UK may leave the EU.

Current situation

The sellers controlled the market. The quotes continued their decrease and broke the level 1.4240 on Monday and touched 1.4150. All buyers’ attempts to grow met the serious resistance from the sellers’ part. The GBP/USD tried to recover but failed. The pair touched the resistance 1.4320 and immediately fell again below 1.4240. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD does not show any divergence. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. That is a buy signal. The pair consolidated below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart that worsened its short term outlook. The price is close to the bottom of the market that was set in the beginning of 2016.

Trading recommendations

The price is oversold, the market looks bearish. The price may bounce upwards to the level 1.4320. However a drop back below 1.4150 may force the GBP/USD to resume its downward trajectory and fell below 2016 lows.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against the dollar. The Japanese currency gained an additional impulse when the weak economic data in China and Japan worsened the outlook for the economic growth in Asia.

Current situation

The yen continued its decrease and tested the support at 106.00. The pair remained under pressure due to upcoming events: the Fed and BoJ meetings. The yen is in demand being a safe heaven currency. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence (that is a strong reversal signal). RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on its lows from 2014 at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The pair may decrease further as the risks kept growing in the market amid the upcoming Fed and BoJ meetings. The pair may decrease to 105.30. We still may see a rebound up to 108.00.



AUD

General overview

The AUD / USD rose when the market received positive data from China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Industrial Production PMI remained unchanged, its results were higher than economists' expectations. Australian Financial markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD decreased last week due to the dollar strengthening. The pair started with a growth the current week. The pair could reverse some of its losses. The AUD/USD was able to reach the mark of 0.7400 where the growth slowed down. The resistance stands at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD is on the zero line, the indicator does not give a signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages (50 and 200) work as a support for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The quotes bounced off the Moving Averages (50 and 200). The price may grow to the local high at 0.7500. As an alternative scenario the pair will decrease to the level 0.7270 and further to 0.7140.



GOLD

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures grew to fresh four-week highs. Investors prepared for the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The gold quotes tried to continue their growth on Monday. However, the wave of growth slowed down and stopped at the mark of 1287. The pair spent the whole day just above the level of 1280. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area that is a buy signal. The signal line is in the histogram. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal is overbought. We expect a correction. The sellers’ target is the mark 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent prices continued to decline as the weak economic data from Asia had revived concerns about the global economic outlook. The strengthening of the US also had a negative impact on the oil prices.

Current situation

The oil quotes stopped their decrease and even made an attempt to grow. The Brent started the week from the support at 49.60. The futures grew to the level of 50.50 but failed to consolidate above it. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.60.

MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The Brent quotes bounced off the 100 Moving Average that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The Brent may return to a growth if it breaks the resistance 50.50 (the 50 Moving Average). If the quotes consolidate over 51.00 it will advance north to 52.50. Otherwise we will see a drop below 49.60.



Dax30

General overview

On Monday, the European stock indices opened with a sharp decrease, as investors remained cautious ahead of meetings of two Central Banks (the US and Japanese). The oil prices decrease pressured the indices as well.

Current situation

The index showed low volatile trades and remain at the opening prices level during the Asian and European sessions. The price fell at the American session. The new local low is at 9630. The resistance comes in at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50, 100 and 200 and moved away from them. The level 9760 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold. We expect a correction this week. Shall the Dax30 increase it will grow to 1000. If the index consolidates 9670 it will fall deeper to 9550.



SP500

General overview

The weakening of the dollar and the growth of oil prices pressured the USA indices. All indices are in the "red zone" in anticipation of upcoming statistical data in the US (the rate hike, retail sales, inflation and others.)

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Monday. SP500 bounced from the support 2086 and grew to the current resistance 2100. SP500 failed to grow further and returned at the opening price level. The resistance comes at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The index broke through the 50 Moving Average and stopped on the 100 Moving Average. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 2100 the price may return to the growth. If the index does make a breakout at that level 2100 we will see a drop to 2070



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

15.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Even though the Eurozone published positive industrial production report the euro continued its decrease. The euro is near the new lows of the week due to German government bonds yields falling and due to concerns about the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The price moved in the descending price channel. Its low boundary is at 1.1230, the upper boundary is located at 1.1300. Yesterday the growth wave faded away, sellers returned to the market. The pair EUR/USD fell from the resistance 1.1300. The price broke the level of 1.1250 and approached the mark of 1.1200. The pair began a consolidation phase. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support is at 1.1200.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If oscillator leaves the oversold area upwards it will give a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The main trend is down.


Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards the support near 1.1130. The level of 1.1300 limits the growth of the pair. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above this resistance.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound was trading nearly two-month low against the dollar. The inflation in May remained at the same level, while the concerns about the Brexit pressured the pound.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. The pair continued its decrease and broke the level 1.4240. The decrease was stopped by the resistance 1.4150. The pair spent the last part of the day near that level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. We consider that as a buy signal. The pair is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. That is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The quotes are near the year low and we do not think the pair will break it easily. The support 1.4060 limits the decrease of the pair. If this level can hold we will see a bounce off to the level 1.4400. An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below this support level.



Yen

General overview

On Tuesday, Taro Aso (Japanese Finance Minister) warned the market against the latest strengthening of the yen. According to Taro Aso the officials would "respond decisively" to prevent speculative movements in the currency market.
Current situationThe yen continued its decrease and set a new day low at 105.64. After reaching the mark 105.64 was in a sideway, remaining under pressure. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence. RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is considered as a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the support 105.30 will be broken, the price may fall further to 104.50. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair grows above the resistance level 107.00.



NZD

General overview

The market is not ready to risk before the main events of this week (the Fed and BoJ meetings). The decrease of the European Bonds markets and the bearish tone around oil prices pressured the pair NZD/USD.

Current situation

The NZD/USD returned below the level of 0.7050. The pair was under pressure and headed towards the level 0.6950. The resistance stands at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.6950.

MACD is on the zero line. If MACD went into the negative area it shall give a sell signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The indicator is approaching the oversold area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The price is close to the 50 Moving Average which is just above the nearest support line. The MA can stop the quotes from the decrease or can bounce them up.

Trading recommendations

The level 0.7000 used to be a strong resistance, now it is the key level for a downtrend. We hardly can imagine the strengthening of the NZD when the anti-risk sentiment prevails. Our eyes are right now at the support level 0.6950. If the pair breaks it the way to the level 0.6850 will be open.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures took a pause before the Fed meeting results announcement.

Current situation

The gold futures declined during the Asian and the European sessions on Tuesday. The metal returned to a growth during the American session. The gold set a new day high at the mark 1289. The gold is trying to consolidate above the level of 1280.00 and continue to grow on the one hour chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram declined that is a sell signal. The signal line left the histogram. That is a pivot signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a buy signal. Shall the signal line leave the overbought zone down we will get a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed upwards.

Trading recommendations

The gold futures are at 1280.00 on the daily chart. That is a very important level which may act as a further level of support if the price closes above it. Therefore, it is the best to wait for a consolidation above or below the level.



Brent

General overview

The Brent declined when investors ignored signs of narrowing of the market due to concerns about the global growth slow down and stock markets decrease before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The oil futures spent the day in a sideway movement that was between 49.50 and 50.00. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.50.
MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50 and 100) that serve as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the Brent remains below 50.50 it shall decrease to 48.50. Alternatively, the Brent may grow to 51.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stock indexes fell due to the increased traders’ nervousness before the meeting of the Fed and the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Tuesday. Nasdaq reversed to 4430. Sellers returned to the market at the American session and sent the price down. The index fell through the support 4400 and stopped at 4383. The resistance comes at 4400, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the price.

Trading recommendations

We believe the index shall decrease until the Fed announces its decision regarding the rate. The weakness of the market can send the index to the support 4350. Nasdaq can bounce to 4440.



SP500

General overview

The key stock indices closed the day in the "red zone" on expectations of a two-day meeting of the Fed. Current situationThe index tried to recover and was able to reach 2061 when sellers returned to the market and sent the price down. SP500 quotes broke the level 2070 and set a new local low at 2060. The resistance comes in at 2070, the support is at 2055.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the SP500. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below the level 2070 (SMA 200) the downtrend will be continued. Any move above this level should be considered corrective.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

16.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The upcoming referendum in the UK kept pressuring the pair. The Fed announced its decision regarding the rates. As expected, the regulator left the rates unchanged.

Current situation

The pair remained in the descending channel. In general, the euro is still under pressure, even though it recovered yesterday. The pair EUR/USD grew to the mark of 1.1300 after the Fed decision. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support come in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area upwards, it is another buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other, the price broke them upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the pair fixates above the level 1.1300 we will see a growth to 1.1400 – 1.1450. The consolidation below 1.1250 will made bears stronger. The pair will decrease to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

The pound remained under pressure. Nevertheless the concerns that the UK can leave the EU weakened when the fresh UK statistics was published. In economic news: Unemployment Rate decreased and average earnings grew.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. The pair recovered yesterday and could grow to the mark 1.4213. Buyers were not able to take the price higher and it decreased to the level 1.4150. The pair is at the year lows. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew, that is a buy signal. RSI grew from the oversold zone. That is also a buy signal. The pair is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. That is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair breaks above the 1.4240 level we will see it growing to 1.4400. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4060.



Yen

General overview

Investors bought the yen amid the uncertainty regarding the referendum in the UK. The fact that the Fed did not change the rates supported the yen as well.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The dollar tried to grow during the day still the upcoming Fed meeting pressured it. The pair USD/JPY could recover to 106.40 where it turned down and decreased. The pairbroke the level 106.00 on its way. The price remained in a side channel. The resistance is at 106.00, the support is at 105.30.

We received a sell signal from MACD. The indicator decreased. RSI is close the oversold level of 30. Shall RSI return to the oversold area and we will get another sell signal. Alternatively, if it grows it will give an opposite signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4
hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations
The pressure is preserved. We expect a further decline towards 104.50.



CAD

General overview

The growth of the manufacturing sector did not support the Canadian dollar. The oil prices continued putting pressure on the CAD.

Current situation

The USD/CAD continued its recovery during the day. Bulls seemed to return to the market and took the price upwards. The pair broke through the resistance 1.2900 and advanced further to the north. Still it failed to grow and returned below 1.2900. The resistance stands at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator is growing, that is a buy signal. The indicator RSI approached the overbought area. That is a buy signal. The price broke through the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns below 1.2900 the decrease will be continued. The closest sellers’ targets are: 1.2800 and 1.2680. The level 1.1300 remained the target for the bulls.



GOLD

General overview

The Fed decision and J.Yellen’s speech supported the gold. According to Yellen the regulator shall be cautious with the rate hike. Also, Yellen asked not to pay to much attention to the latest week labor market reports.

Current situation

The gold found a support around $1280 per ounce yesterday. The precious metal was able to grow to the level of 1292 that limited its further growth. The demand for the gold is preserved, it has the chance to test the 13th figure.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram increased that is a buy signal. The signal line left the histogram. RSI is close to the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed upwards.

Trading recommendations

The Fed decision supported the gold, as expected. We believe the gold will grow and will reach the mark 1300 soon.



Brent

General overview

The Crude Oil Stocks change report came in worsened than traders’ expectations. Its results pressured the oil quotes. Besides, the Fed left unchanged its monetary policy that had pressured the oil as well.

Current situation

The oil quotations remained under pressure. The Brent broke through the support at 49.50 dollars per barrel, and then fell to the level of 48.50. The 49th figure limited its attempts to recover.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram remained at the same level. RSI is close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50 and 100) that serve as a resistance. The MA 200 is just below the price. The 200 Moving Average does not let the pair to fall further.

Trading recommendations

If the Brent remains below 50.50 it shall decrease to 48.50 and further down to 47.50. Alternatively, the Brent may grow to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

On Wednesday, the European stocks opened with a growth due to the positive sentiment growth before the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The index started Wednesday with a gap upwards. The upcoming Fed meeting supported the European Bonds market. The index was able to recover to 9666 where it stopped and slightly decreased. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram grew that is a buy signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed downward.

Trading recommendations

We expect the index to grow. Our eyes are right now at the support level 9665. Should that level break up the DAX30 will grown to 9760 – 9800.



SP500

General overview

The US stocks grew on Wednesday, the first time in five days. The decreased chances for the rate hike supported the indices. The stocks remained near Tuesday's levels slightly above the minimum of four weeks.

Current situation

The index recovered from the level 2070 on Wednesday. The quotes were able to reverse to 2090. However buyers were not able to hold the index at the local high. SP500 decreased back to 2070. The resistance comes in at 2086 the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew yesterday that is a bullish signal. RSI left the oversold area upwards that is a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the SP500. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the index gets below 2070 the decrease will be continued.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

17.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro significantly fell against the US dollar. The latest Fed meeting returned interest to the US currency. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims that turned out to be worse than the forecast. Nevertheless the USA statistics had little impact on the pair.

Current situation

The pair left more that 0.60% during the Thursday trades. The EUR/USD fell from the beginning of the European session. The pair decreased from 1.1300 to 1.1130. The price broke two supports on its way: 1.1250 and 1.1200. After testing 1.1130 the pair gained back some losses. The day the pair ended at 1.1250. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support come in at 1.1200.

The pair remained in the descending channel. The technical indicators are within the bearish zone on the 4-hour chart. The price is below all the moving averages, indicating a possible further decline.

MACD is in the negative area. There was a sell signal when the indicator decreased. RSI is near the oversold area, it is also a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations
The indicators recommend short positions. Any rebound above 1.1250 should be considered as corrective. Should the level 1.1130 break down the price will decrease to 1.1000



Pound

General overview

The retail sales grew in the UK in May. The UK economy still has strength despite the uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. The UK Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing yesterday during the European session. The pair fell from 1.4215 and reached the mark of 1.4011. The pair GBP/USD turned upwards on the American session and reversed some of its losses. The pair recovered from 1.4000 and reached the opening price level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

The technical indicators lost their bearish impulse, but remained in the red zone. The MACD recovered, its sell signal faded. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator remains above the oversold area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair breaks above the 1.4240 level we will see it growing to 1.4400. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4060



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, despite the weak global growth and low inflation.Current situation The yen was able to strengthen at yesterday’s trades. The pair decreased from the level 105.50. The USD/JPY was able to set a new local low at the mark 103.50. In general the pair lost about 1.40% during Thursday. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

After MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold level. If RSI remain in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. Alternatively, if it grows it will give an opposite signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is downwards. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart. The pair is on the year lows.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect a further decline towards 103.50



AUD

General overview

The risk assets decreased against the dollar. The results of the Fed meeting, as well as the decline of oil were the key drivers for the pair.

Current situation

The pair was falling the whole Thursday. The AUD/USD decreased from the level 0.7440 to the mark 0.7384. After setting a day low the price recovered back to 0.7400. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support is at 0.7270.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The attempt to break through the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) failed on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the pair gets below 0.7270 the decrease will be continued to 0.7140. We do not exclude a correction to 0.7450



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday, the gold futures rose to the highest mark since August 2014. The recent monetary decisionsof the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan supported the gold metal.

Current situation

The gold futures set a new year high at the mark of 1315. After reaching the level of 1315 the quotes decreased back to 1270. The resistance is at 1315, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram moved downwards that is a sell signal. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The Fed and BoJ decisions supported the gold. We do not see a ceiling for the gold. The metal can grow further taking into consideration the upcoming referendum in the UK. The next buyers’ targets are the marks 1315, 1330 and 1350



Brent

General overview

On Thursday, the Brent prices fell to the four-week lows. The market concerns that the Great Britain may leave the European Union pressured the appetite for the risky assets. The Brent futures fell due to the reduced concerns about the global supply disruptions.

Current situation

The oil quotations remained under pressure. The Brent broke through the supports 48.50 and 47.50 dollars per barrel, and fell to the level of 46.50. The oil set a new low at the mark of 47.06. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI entered the oversold area again. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA 200 works as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The Brent stopped near 47.20. A cut through here will aim it at the 46.50 level. If the pair consolidates above 48.50 there will be a high chance of its return to the growth



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stocks declined on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged. The USA regulator warned about slowing of economic growth if the Great Britain leaves the EU.

Current situation

The index decreased the part of Thursday. Nasdaq lost about 0.40% during the day. The index touched 4350 and bounced away. The Thursday trades the index ended around the mark of 4440. The resistance comes at 4440, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is above the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages (50 and 100). The 200 Moving Average direction is horizontal. The
50 and 100 Moving Averages direction is downwards. The 200 Moving Average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover to 4440. If Nasdaq consolidates above 4440 the price may return to a growth. If the pair manages to breakout 4350 it may decrease to 4300



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds market has been falling for five consecutive sessions. The Fed decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged did not support the index. Now the Fed plans a smaller number of rates hikes in 2017 and 2018 and that fact pressured SP500.

Current situation

The index continued its decrease. The index has been falling nearly a week without long stops. SP500 set a new local low at 2050. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a decrease that is a sell signal. RSI returned to the oversold area it is also a sell signal. The index left the Moving Average far above, it is another sell signal. The area 2040 – 2020 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index may decrease further. It approached the strong support at 2030 where SP500 may bounce upwards. Shall the index break this level downwards we will see its decrease to 1980.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

20.06.2016

Euro

General overview

We noticed a growth of risk appetite last Friday. However we do not believe the euro will grow. It may fall against the pound, if the UK decides to stay in the EU or if the UK decides to stay in the alliance the euro may fall in other pairs.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. Even though the pair made attempts to grow it failed to break the trend line. The indicators recommend short positions. Any growth above 1.1300 should be considered corrective. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support come in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew that indicated the current correction If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is growing, it is also a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There is a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1400



Pound

General overview

The advertising campaigns in the UK were stopped due to the Joe Cox's murder (the Member of Parliament). The demand for the dollar remained weak as the main Central Banks may conduct a joint operation to inject dollar liquidity to the market in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The pound reversed on Friday. However its recovery was stopped near the mark of 1.4400. We believe a lot of sellers are at that level and they will not let buyers to grow further. The resistance is at 1.4400, the support come in at 1.4320.

From a technical point of view, the trend is clearly bearish. The pound continued to show decreasing of highs and lows. The price is below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are below the price and work as support. MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD returns to the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays near the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair consolidated above the 1.4000 level we will see it growing to 1.4560. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4150. We expect a volatility growth this week before the Brexit.



Yen

General overview

The lack of new steps in the monetary policy softening by the Bank of Japan supported the demand for the yen.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is under pressure. The new local low is at 103.96. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold area. If RSI remains in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50



NZD/USD

General overview

The pair NZD / USD found a support due to an increase in risk appetite. The pair NZD / USD was in the flat on Friday after testing the previous high at 0.7150.

Current situation

The pair was in a flat on Friday. The NZD/USD remained between 0.7030 and 0.7070. The pair is under pressure. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support is at 0.6950.

MACD is in the positive area, it is close to the centerline. The indicator decreased. If the histogram returns into the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards. The 50-SMA is a support where the pair can pivot upwards.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish. However the pair NZD/USD is overbought. If it consolidates below 0.7050 the decrease will be continued to 0.6950-0.6900.



GOLD

General overview

On Friday, the gold prices fell as traders took profits after the jump of the pair to 23-month high on Thursday.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction down. The other day the gold futures fell from a new year high at the mark of 1315. We consider this increase corrective. The pair grew and was able to return some recent losses. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram turned upwards. RSI returned to the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overviewT

he US dollar weakened after the recent macroeconomic reports from the USA. A weak dollar supported the oil market, as it made the oil cheaper for owners of foreign currencies.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The Brent was able to recover by 0.26%. The oil price broke the levels 4700 and 4750. The Brent touched the level of 48.00 by the end of trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 48.00.

MACD is in the negative area. However the histogram was growing that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal The Brent broke the 200-SMA and approached the 50-SMA and 100-SMA. If the oil consolidates above the 50-SMA and 100-SMA the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations
The break below 48.50 might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory and drift to 46.50. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 49.50.



DAX30

General overview

The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

The US indices started trading on Friday below zero, in particular S&P 500 started with -0.13%. The minor changes before the opening of the US stock markets were due to the uncertainty around the possible results of the British referendum which will take place on 23 June.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

21.06.2016

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday and only Neel Kashkari's speech (the Fed representative) was the focus of our attention.

Current situation

The Monday trades started with a growth. The pair grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support come in at 1.1300.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that indicated the current growth. If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. The growth into overbought area will give us a buy signal. The decrease of the signal line will give us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. The bulls’ attempt to change the market failed. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1450 – 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, the pound strengthened against other major currencies when fears that the UK may leave the European Union weakened. The latest poll results revealed that the number of Britons who prefer to stay in the EU is more than the number of those who want to leave it.

Current situation

The pound reversed last week and continued growing this week as well. The pair set a new local high at the mark of 1.4700. According to the daily chart the resistance 1.4670 is a strong level where the price reverses several times. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The pound grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are turning upwards.

MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD stays in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The resistance 1.4670 limits the growth of the pair. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. If the pair breaks the level the growth will be continued. Otherwise we will see a return below 1.4400



Yen

General overview
The dollar rose against the yen, retreating from an almost two-year low reached last Thursday when theBank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Investors hoped that the Bank would implement additional stimulus.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is still under pressure. The pair set new local low at 104.00. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD grew, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is close to the oversold area. If RSI gets into the oversold area we will get a sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50. Alternatively we shall see a growth to 106.00



USD/CAD

General overview

The inflation in Canada is lower than expected according to Friday release.

Current situation
The pair is under pressure. The USD/CAD decreased and set a new low at the mark of 1.2770. The resistance is at 1.2900, the support is at 1.2800.

MACD moved into the negative area. The signal line is above the histogram. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is close to the oversold area. The USD/CAD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/CAD is oversold. If it consolidates below 1.2800 the decrease will be continued to 1.2680. If the pair manages a break above 1.2900 and stays there we would likely be buying to 1.3100



GOLD

General overview

Demand for safe assets decreased, the gold futures got under pressure. The price moved away from a 22-month high last week. The improved market sentiment also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction. The pair spent near the level of 1280 the first day of the week. All attempts to break the level had failed. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram decreased. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price returns to the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overview

The oil quotes rose on Monday when fears that Britain would leave the European Union decreased. The weak dollar also supported the Brent quotes.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The price left the descending channel. The Brent was able to recover to 50.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above all Moving Averages the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth back towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

On Monday, the US index futures showed a sharp rise, as fears that the UK will vote for the exit from the European Union decreased.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

22.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Economic sentiment release supported the euro on Tuesday. Yesterday Draghi and Yellen gave their speeches. According to Draghi the inflation is moderate in the Eurozone. Yellen said that the rates would remain at the current low levels a long period of time. According to Yellen the USA economy showed a strong growing of the GDP.

Current situation

The Tuesday trades started with a decrease. The pair was falling the whole day. The euro broke the level of 1.1300 and tested the level of 1.1250. The EUR/USD remained in the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support comes in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator decreased that indicated the current fall of the pair. If MACD gets into the negative area there will be a sell signal. RSI decreased and approached the oversold area.

The decrease of the signal line gives us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal. The price stopped at the MA.

Trading recommendations

Bears returned to the market. As we expected the price was not able to grow above 1.1370. We expect the decrease to be continued now. We will sell if the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1250



Pound

General overview

The pound received support from the latest poll which had showed the growth of Britons who wanted to stay in the EU. The pair set a fresh seven-week high against the dollar. Public Sector Net Borrowing also supported the national currency.

Current situation

The pound reversed yesterday from the seven-week high when investors began closing long positions. The pair fell from the level 1.4760 to the next support at 1.4670. The price ended the trades in the area 1.4620. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators are overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased that supported the current drop. If MACD decreases further the pair will fall further. RSI left the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

As we predicted the resistance 1.4670 did not let the pair to grow. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. The first target is 1.4560. We believe that the break below 1.4560 should send this market looking for the 1.4400 level.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell against the US dollar after a significant strengthening the other day. The Yellen’s speech supported the dollar yesterday. Besides, the decrease of the risk appetite lowered the demand for the "safe haven" assets when fears that the UK may leave the European Union stepped away.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in a downside channel. We see a technical correction right now. The dollar was growing yesterday and returned some of its previous losses. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

MACD grew, there was a buy signal from the indicator. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations
We believe the pair will recover to the area of 105.70 – 106.00. Alternatively it will decrease to 103.50



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar strengthened when the Reserve Bank of Australia published its last meeting minutes. The regulator left the rates unchanged. According to the Central Bank the main reasons to keep the rates unchanged were: a positive economic data, a significant weakening of the national currency, as well as the rise in house prices and a positive wage prospects.

Current situation

The pair deprived from the three weeks high. The AUD/USD decreased from the mark of 0.7510 and stopped at 0.7458. The price is below a strong resistance where it has bounced downwards lately. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support is at 0.7400.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. The MACD indicator is giving a sell signal. The indicator RSI moved from the overbought area. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour
chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. If the AUD/USD falls below 0.7400 the decrease will be continued to 0.7270.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to lose their value preparing for the long-awaited referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair started a correction. The instrument moved from 1293 and reached 1263 later the day. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the area the decrease will be continued.

The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages are reversing.

Trading recommendations

The indicators suggest the sell positions. The break below 1270 would open the way to 1260 and 1250. The gold may pullback to 1280 to continue falling from it.



Brent

General overview

Weekly Crude Oil Stock in the USA showed -1,900M. According to Secretary General of OPEC the volume of the oil production is growing in Nigeria.

Current situation

The oil quotations returned to a growth. The price has been growing three days in a line. The Brent left the descending channel far behind. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above them the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX

General overview

The European Bonds Markets showed mixed trades on Tuesday. The investors are nervousness the day before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The DAX index continued its recovery and was able to break the resistance 1000. The quotes ended the day at 10070. The resistance comes at 10175, the support is at 1000.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI approached the overbought area. If the oscillator bounces back that will be a sell signal. If RSI enters the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price. The 100-SMA and 200-SMA work as a support.

Trading recommendations

If DAX30 fixates above 10100 the index may grow to 10175. Otherwise the price will drop to 1000



SP 500

General overview

The US stocks slightly rise on Tuesday after the Janet Yellen's speech. Janet Yellen spoke about the state of the US economy. The shares of the energy sector rose by 0.9% amid the oil prices growth (2.9%). Marathon Oil shares rose by 10% when the company announced its plans to acquire PayRock Energy Holdings for 888 million dollars.

Current situation

The index remained in a range between 2086 and 2073. The index showed a mixed dynamics during the day. The SP500 fell to the bottom of the side channel where it turned up and grew to the nearest resistance. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is on the centerline. The indicator does not give a clear signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index stuck between the 200-SMA (support) and the 50-SMA (resistance). The 100-SMA is above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The levels 2086 and 2100 are still our targets. Shall the index break the
level 2070 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2055



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls can postpone the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair grew last Friday. The EUR/USD broke the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1300 and approached the mark of 1.3730. The pair looks bullish. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

MACD is in a positive area, the signal line is in a histogram. MACD is growing, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The published Services PMI for May in the UK did not effect the pound. Still the pair grew after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA.

Current situation

The pair grew from the support of 1.4400. The pair broke the resistance 1.4480. The buyers could test the mark of 1.4560. Still the growing impulse faded out and the pair returned below the level. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The indicator MACD is giving a buy signal.
RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the flat will be continued.



Yen

General overview

Japanese currency finished last week in a green zone due to renewed discussions regarding differences among the US and Japanese monetary policies.

Current situation

The interest to the yen grew after a weak Non-Farms report. The pair fell and broke the levels 108.20 and 107.40. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above in the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The indicator is showing a sell signal. The indicator RSI is below 30 and is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

PMI Composite from Markit in the Eurozone came out worse than expected. However the euro ignored the news, the referendum in the UK was in the spotlight the whole day. The weakening of the dollar pushed the European currency upwards.

Current situation

The pair showed a mix dynamics yesterday still the growth was its main tendency. The quotes grew during the Asian and the European sessions and slightly fell at the American one. The EUR/USD pair is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support lies in at 1.1300.

MACD grew during the day. The indicator is in the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area its signal will be bullish. RSI is close to the overbought level. If RSI enters the overbought area that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The SMAs direction is horizontal. The price is above the Moving Averages.

Trading recommendations

If the market preserves a growth sentiment the euro will keep growing. The pair EUR/USD is close to the strong resistance and it might bounce downwards. If the instrument grows it will reach the level 1.1450. Otherwise it will decrease to 1.1250.



Pound

General overview

The British currency rose on Thursday after receiving preliminary information regarding the referendum. The number of EU supporters was bigger than the number of their opponents. That news supported the pound. The referendum results will be announced on Friday morning.

Current situation

The pound received some support from the news flow and scientifically grew. The pair grew by 0.80%. The instrument set a new high at the mark of 1.4947. The resistance is at 1.5000, the support comes in at 1.4900.

The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators remained overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew. If MACD decreases the pair will correct downwards. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. The MACD shows signs of the divergence. RSI remained below the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 1.5000. If the price falls it will get to the level of 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined across the market. The growth of risks due to Brexit made the yen attractive as a reserve currency.

Current situation

The USD/JPY grew and ended the trades at the upper boundary of the downside channel. The new local high is at the level 106.00. The resistance is at 106.00, the support is at 105.30.

MACD grew into the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If oscillator decreases the instrument will correct downwards. The USD/JPY grew though the 50-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 100-SMA stopped the growth of the pair.

Trading recommendations

The yen may continue the upward movement in the short term. Its potential target is 106.50. Still the pair stopped at the pretty strong level 106.00. The pair has recently fallen from it. That’s why we do not exclude the sell scenario.



AUD/USD

General overview

On Thursday, the American dollar fell against all major currency pairs. The referendum in the UK was the focus of our attention. The Australian dollar was supported by the weakness of its American counterpart and rose to a nine-month high.

Current situation

The instrument was able to set a new local high at the point of 0.7600. The overall outlook remained bullish. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support is at 0.7500.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that is a sell signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area. If RSI got into the overbought area that is a buy signal. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays above the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. Nevertheless it can continue its growth. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7650.



GOLD

General overview

The precious metal was trading near the two-week lows. The instrument took a wait and see position until the end of the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair remained at the recently reached level staying in a flat. The XAU/USD spent the day between the marks of 1260 and 1270. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD decreased in the negative area. The histogram remained at the same place. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline of the price will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the oversold area the decrease will be continued. The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1280. We do not exclude the falls to 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent crude oil prices rose on Thursday. Investors were cautious due to the referendum in Britain. The oil futures recovered from the deepest drop to the 13 year lows. The decline in production of shale oil in the USA supported the instrument.

Current situation

The oil quotations strengthened yesterday. The quotes were able to grow and almost reached the previously set highs. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. MACD shows a divergence signs. RSI remained near the overbought level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 50.50 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 51.50 and 52.50 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price falls it will get to 49.50 and 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The European stock market opened with a growth on Thursday. Investors kept a positive sentiment during the long-awaited referendum in the UK. The German DAX 30 rose by 1.85% over Thursday.

Current situation

The DAX30 was positive yesterday. The index strengthened and was able to set a new high at 10332. The market is bullish. The resistance comes at 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, that was a buy signal. If the histogram grows we will get a buy signal. RSI moved into the overbought area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a buy signal. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the positive sentiment preserves the index will grow to 10350. We do not exclude a correction back to 10250.



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds Market was under expectations of the latest events in the UK. Despite the positive sentiment regarding the referendum, the contradiction of the recent polls made the markets more cautious. The energy Sector in S&P500 fell by 0,6%. The share of the health sector grew by 6.78 at the same time.

Current situation

The instrument grew and set a new local high at 2101. However SP500 was not able to remain there and decreased back below the mark 2100. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator grew that is a buy signal. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If the signal line remains at the same place the growth will be continued. If it decreased the instrument will fall. The index is above all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The 100-SMA works as a support for the price.

Trading recommendations

A break above the mark 2100 risks a growth towards 2110. If the price cannot remain at the current levels and decreases the price will move down to 2086.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The UK decision to leave the EU led to a collapse of the world markets. As a result they fell to the record historical levels. Now the European Union is ready to negotiate with London about its exit, but until then, the UK remains a member of the Union. The EU hopes to maintain a partnership with Britain after its exit.

Current situation

The pair showed a negative dynamics right after the referendum results publication. The EUR/USD fell to the historical lows, from 1.1370 to 1.0900 and lost about 500 pp. Now the euro is under pressure and the dollar is gaining popularity. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal.

The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. However the 50-SMA broke the two others and is moving downwards. If the current situation preserves that will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The trend is clearly bearish for now. We presume that the next bearish target lies at 1.0900. Still as the marker is undervalued we do not exclude a recovery back above 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The collapse of the pound that we saw last Friday was just the beginning of the hard times for the UK economy and we shall see other after-effects soon. The 10-year British bonds yield have already decreased and have fallen to the historical lows. The credit rating of the UK (AAA) has all chances to be revised downwards in the near future.

Current situation

The pound was hurt most of all by the London decision to leave the EU. The pair fell by 10% within hours. That has been the biggest drop in the resent history. The instrument is at the lows now where it was in 80s. The resistance is at 1.3950, the support comes in at 1.3700.

The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages formed a cross-over and are moving downwards that is a sell signal. The indicators are undervalued now. MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD decreases again the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area.

Trading recommendations

If price breaks above 1.4320, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 1.5000. However we do not believe in this scenario much. We assume the instrument will remain under pressure. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan can start an intervention in the medium term due to the increased market volatility and uncertainty in the world economy. Now markets began preparing for the bustling times when the interest to risk will be minimal and the "safe haven" assets will be in demand.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure; the latest events in the Europe were not able to change its main trend. As many pairs the instrument decreased and returned to the region 102.50. The pair formed a new lower low at 99.00. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the decrease will be continued. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule and we will consider selling the pair to 100.00. The mark 104.50 limits the growth of the USD/JPY if price breaks above this region the growth may be continued to the resistance area 106.00.



NZD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar was pretty volatile last Friday. The reason for that was the same theme as everywhere – Brexit. The NZD was under pressure due to the risk aversion.

Current situation

The instrument fell at the Asian session on Friday. However the kiwi was able to recover and returned almost all its losses later the day. The market tone is still positive and the current rebound below 0.7150 should be considered corrective. The resistance exists at 0.7150, the support lies at 0.7050.

Even though MACD decreased it remained in the positive area. We consider that is a buy signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area and shows a buy signal. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7250. If NZD decreases it will drop to 0.6850.



GOLD

General overview

We guess the gold was the only instrument in the market that won out from the Brexit. The investors turned to the gold as to a safe asset; the gold futures rose by 8% to the 2-year highs.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. The quotes set a new high at 1360. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.

MACD is moving upwards in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

As expected, the decision of London to leave the European Union made the oil futures drop. The crude oil Brent decreased as investors decided not to take risks and took their funds away from risky assets.

Current situation

The oil quotations decreased and lost about 6% on Friday. However the situation seems to have stabilized and the oil futures found a support at 47.50. The Brent recovered by the end of traders and ended the week at the mark 48.50. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD moved into the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices are currently under pressure due to a variety of factors. The dollar strengthened, the market is still overvalued, and there are signs of renewal in the US shale oil production. The Brent can drop further but not too far. We believe the instrument will find a bottom at 45.00. If the pair breaks the level 49.50 upwards that will be a buy signal.



NASDAQ

General overview

When the UK published the first results of the referendum the US stock indices fell by 4-5%. The exit from the alliance is a strong blow to the euro area economy as the UK was the second GDP in the region.

Current situation

The Nasdaq was negative on Friday. All its attempts to recover met a resistance at 4350. The resistance comes at 4300, the support is at 4250.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a sell signal. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 4250 and further to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

London decision to leave the EU crippled world markets. The US Futures in the US S&P 500 index fell by 3.60% on the news. The US stock market closed trading on Friday by a drop due to the negative dynamics from the part of the finance, raw materials and technologies sectors.

Current situation

The instrument got under pressure and decreased at the Asian session on Friday. S&P 500 recovered some losses during the day. However when American traders came to the market sales resumed. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD moved into the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 2012 and 2000 are the sellers’ targets.




Technical analysis

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman