Fundamental analysis

General topics about Forex trading

Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:29 am

Dollar Index is currently trading at 77.80 levels and consistantly trading above 55 days EMA. We're remaining bullish on the dollar index as long as 76.80 resistance turned support is held. Further rise is expected to be seen near 80 levels (DI - 77.78) Bullish.[Written by actionforex]

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size 160X3 or(5.05%) CLOSE
Data 118.62 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2001 records 77.87 (Last Close)
2002-03-29 00~00
2009-12-31 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

Code: Select all
118.4|~16O||________________________________________|0.19%|65.92%
116.8|~32O||________________________________________|1.53%|63.68%
115.2|~48O||__o_____________________________________|2.88%|61.43%
113.6|~64O||__o_____________________________________|4.23%|59.19%
112.0|~8OO||__o_____________________________________|5.58%|56.95%
110.4|~96O||__o_____________________________________|6.93%|54.71%
108.8|~112O|__o_____________________________________|8.28%|52.47%
107.2|~128O|__o_____________________________________|9.63%|50.22%
105.6|~144O|__o_____________________________________|10.98%|47.98%
104.0|~16OO|__o_____________________________________|12.33%|45.74%
102.4|~176O|__o_____________________________________|13.67%|43.5%
100.8|~192O|__o_____________________________________|15.02%|41.26%
99.20|~2O8O|__o_____________________________________|16.37%|39.01%
97.60|~224O|__o_x___________________________________|17.72%|36.77%
96.00|~24OO|__o_x_o_________________________________|19.07%|34.53%
94.40|~256O|__o_x_o_________________________________|20.42%|32.29%
92.80|~272O|__o_x_o_________________________________|21.77%|30.04%
91.20|~288O|__o___o_x___________x___________________|23.12%|27.8%
89.60|~3O4O|______o_x_o_____x___x_o_________________|24.46%|25.56%
88.00|~32OO|______o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_____x___x_______|25.81%|23.32%
86.40|~336O|______o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___|27.16%|21.08%
84.80|~352O|______o___o_x___x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.51%|18.83%
83.20|~368O|__________o_x_o_x_____o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.86%|16.59%
81.60|~384O|__________o_x_o_x_____o_____x_o_x_o___o_|31.21%|14.35%
80.00|~4OOO|__________o___o_______o_x___x_o_x_____o_|32.56%|12.11%
78.40|~416O|______________________o_x_o_x_o_______o_|33.91%|9.87%
76.80|~432O|______________________o_x_o_x_________o_|35.26%|7.62%
75.20|~448O|______________________o_x_o___________o_|36.6%|5.38%
73.60|~464O|______________________o_x_____________o_|37.95%|3.14%
72.00|~48OO|______________________o_x_______________|39.3%|0.9%
70.40|~496O|______________________o_________________|40.65%|-1.35%
Column||||||0_164_8_4_7_3_3_6_3_4_136_3_8_6_6_4_3_8_|
Count



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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Wed Mar 10, 2010 1:51 pm

The dollar index moved into long mode in early December and found buying support and momentum as equity markets lost direction.
Also in effective terms the dollar has lost momentum, as witnessed by the correction lower in the DXY index from its mid-February 81.342 high. As a result, speculative long USD positions have been trimmed.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size 70X4 or(3.42%) CLOSE
Data 92.33 - 71.36 ~ 75 Month ~ 2285 Day
Database 1614 records 80.56 (Last Close)
2003-11-17 00~00
2010-02-18 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

Code: Select all
91.70|~7O|||____X_______X______________________|0.68%|28.5%
91.00|~14O||X___Xo______Xo_____________________|1.44%|27.52%
90.30|~21O||Xo__Xo____X_XoX____________________|2.2%|26.54%
89.60|~28O||_o__XoX___XoXoXo___________________|2.96%|25.56%
88.90|~35O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________X____|3.71%|24.58%
88.20|~42O||_o__XoXo__XoXoXo______________Xo___|4.47%|23.6%
87.50|~49O||_oX_XoXo__XoXo_o____________X_Xo___|5.23%|22.62%
86.80|~56O||_oXoXo_o__XoX__oX_X_______X_XoXo___|5.99%|21.64%
86.10|~63O||_oXoX__o__Xo___oXoXo______XoXoXoX__|6.75%|20.66%
85.40|~7OO||_oXoX__o__X____oXoXo______XoXoXoXo_|7.51%|19.67%
84.70|~77O||_o_o___oX_X____oXoXoX_____XoXoXoXo_|8.26%|18.69%
84.00|~84O||_______oXoX____oXo_oXo____Xo_oXoXo_|9.02%|17.71%
83.30|~91O||_______oXoX____o___oXo____X__oXoXo_|9.78%|16.73%
82.60|~98O||_______oXoX________oXo____X__oXo_o_|10.54%|15.75%
81.90|~1O5O|_______oXoX________o_o____X__oX__o_|11.3%|14.77%
81.20|~112O|_______oXo___________o____X__oX__o_|12.05%|13.79%
80.50|~119O|=======o=============o====X==oX==oX|12.81%|12.81%
79.80|~126O|_____________________o__X_X__oX__oX|13.57%|11.83%
79.10|~133O|_____________________o__XoX__oX__oX|14.33%|10.85%
78.40|~14OO|_____________________o__XoX__o___oX|15.09%|9.87%
77.70|~147O|_____________________oX_XoX______oX|15.85%|8.88%
77.00|~154O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|16.6%|7.9%
76.30|~161O|_____________________oXoXoX______oX|17.36%|6.92%
75.60|~168O|_____________________oXoXo_______oX|18.12%|5.94%
74.90|~175O|_____________________oXoX________oX|18.88%|4.96%
74.20|~182O|_____________________o_oX________o_|19.64%|3.98%
73.50|~189O|_______________________oX__________|20.39%|3%
72.80|~196O|_______________________oX__________|21.15%|2.02%
72.10|~2O3O|_______________________oX__________|21.91%|1.04%
71.40|~21OO|_______________________oX__________|22.67%|0.06%
70.70|~217O|_______________________o___________|23.43%|-0.92%
Column||||||29441741651686415447415116145119519|
Count|||||||____O__3__3____O_____5_O3_6__35__7_|


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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Thu Mar 25, 2010 4:55 am

Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 250X3 or(4.17%) CLOSE
Data 108.69 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 81.85 (Last Close)
2002-06-21 00~00
2010-03-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

Code: Select all
108.75|~125|______________________________|-0.06%|52.4%
107.50|~25O|_X_X__________________________|1.09%|50.64%
106.25|~375|oXoXo_________________________|2.24%|48.89%
105.00|~5OO|o_oXo_________________________|3.39%|47.14%
103.75|~625|__o_o_________________________|4.55%|45.39%
102.50|~75O|____o_________________________|5.7%|43.64%
101.25|~875|____oX________________________|6.85%|41.89%
100.0|~1OOO|____oXo_______________________|8%|40.13%
98.75|~1125|____oXoX______________________|9.15%|38.38%
97.50|~125O|____o_oXo_____________________|10.3%|36.63%
96.25|~1375|______oXo_____________________|11.45%|34.88%
95.00|~15OO|______oXo_____________________|12.6%|33.13%
93.75|~1625|______oXo_____________________|13.75%|31.38%
92.50|~175O|______oXo_____________________|14.9%|29.62%
91.25|~1875|______o_oX_____X______________|16.05%|27.87%
90.00|~2OOO|________oXo__X_Xo_____________|17.2%|26.12%
88.75|~2125|========oXo==XoXo========X====|18.35%|24.37%
87.50|~225O|________oXo__XoXo______X_Xo___|19.5%|22.62%
86.25|~2375|________oXo__Xo_o______XoXoX__|20.65%|20.87%
85.00|~25OO|________oXoX_X__oX_____XoXoXo_|21.8%|19.11%
83.75|~2625|________o_oXoX__oXo____XoXoXo_|22.95%|17.36%
82.50|~275O|__________oXoX__oXo____XoXo_o_|24.1%|15.61%
81.25|~2875|==========oXo===o=o====XoX==oX|25.25%|13.86%
80.00|~3OOO|__________o_______o__X_XoX__oX|26.4%|12.11%
78.75|~3125|__________________o__XoXo___oX|27.55%|10.36%
77.50|~325O|__________________oX_XoX____oX|28.7%|8.6%
76.25|~3375|__________________oXoXoX____oX|29.85%|6.85%
75.00|~35OO|__________________oXoXo_____oX|31%|5.1%
73.75|~3625|==================o=oX======o=|32.15%|3.35%
72.50|~375O|____________________oX________|33.3%|1.6%
71.25|~3875|____________________o_________|34.45%|-0.15%
Column||||||223383861694373483935741785316|
Count|||||||________2______________O____O_|



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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:00 pm

Commodity were hit hard with crude oil down to close at 83.24 while gold closed at 1136.9. Dollar managed to recover earlier losses against major currencies. While the sharp reversal in dollar pairs and yen crosses worth mentioning, it must be noted that the moves were not enough to confirm reversal in recent decline in the neither currencies yet. For example, the dollar index, which closed the week at 80.77, is still way off recent high of 82.24. Follow through selling in stocks and commodities is needed to push dollar and yen through near term resistance to confirm reversal.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 30X2 or(2.89%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 93 Month ~ 2832 Day
Database 2000 records 80.77 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-04-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Thu Jun 03, 2010 4:49 am

US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test short-term support at 85 after breaking out of its
trend channel. Failure would signal the end of the rally and a test of the lower trend channel.
Upward breakout remains as likely, however, and would offer a short-term target of 90.00

"P&F _DXY1440 Box Size 120X3 or(4%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 94 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 86.49 (Last Close)
2002-08-30 00~00
2010-06-03 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Mon Jul 12, 2010 5:36 am

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is undergoing a correction. Breakout below the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening — as would a Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line. Recovery above the descending trendline, however, would suggest another test of 89.[incrediblecharts.com]
But I think so.See figure.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size1 50X3 or(4.71%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 210 Month ~ 6377 Day
Database 912 records 84.34 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-07-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
121.50|~15O||____________________________________+___________________________|-0.82%|71.85%
120.00|~3OO||________________________________x___x_+_________________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.50|~45O||____________________________x___x_o_x_o_+_______________________|1.67%|67.61%
117.00|~6OO||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________|2.91%|65.49%
115.50|~75O||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________________|4.16%|63.37%
114.00|~9OO||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_________________|5.4%|61.24%
112.50|~1O5O|____________________________x_o_x_o___o_________+_______________|6.65%|59.12%
111.00|~12OO|________________________x___x_o_x_____o___________+_____________|7.89%|57%
109.50|~135O|________________________x_o_x_o_______o_____________+___________|9.14%|54.88%
108.00|~15OO|________________________x_o_x_________o_______________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.50|~165O|________________________x_o___________o_________________+_______|11.63%|50.64%
105.00|~18OO|________________________x_____________o___________________+_____|12.87%|48.51%
103.50|~195O|____________________x___x_____________o_____________________+___|14.12%|46.39%
102.00|~21OO|________________x___x_o_x_____________o_______________________+_|15.36%|44.27%
100.50|~225O|____________x___x_o_x_o_x_____________o_________________________|16.6%|42.15%
99.00|~24OO|____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________+_o_x_______________________|17.85%|40.03%
97.50|~255O|____________x_o_x_o_x_o___________+___o_x_o_____________________|19.09%|37.91%
96.00|~27OO|____x_______x_o___o_x___________+_____o_x_o_____________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.50|~285O|x___x_o_____x_____o_x_________+_______o_x_o_____________________|21.58%|33.66%
93.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_____x_____o_________+_________o___o_____________________|22.83%|31.54%
91.50|~315O|__o_x_o_____x_____________+_______________o_x___x_______________|24.07%|29.42%
90.00|~33OO|__o_x_o_x___x___________+_________________o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.50|~345O|__o___o_x_o_x_________+___________________o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___|26.56%|25.18%
87.00|~36OO|______o_x_o_x_______+_____________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_|27.81%|23.06%
85.50|~375O|______o___o_x_____+_______________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.05%|20.93%
84.00|~39OO|__________o_x___+_____________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.50|~4O5O|__________o_x_+_______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|31.54%|16.69%
81.00|~42OO|__________o_+_________________________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.79%|14.57%
79.50|~435O|__________+_______________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|34.03%|12.45%
78.00|~45OO|__________________________________________________o_x_o___o_x___|35.28%|10.33%
76.50|~465O|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_x_+_|36.52%|8.2%
75.00|~48OO|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_+___|37.76%|6.08%
73.50|~495O|__________________________________________________o_x_____+_____|39.01%|3.96%
72.00|~51OO|__________________________________________________o_____________|40.25%|1.84%
70.50|~525O|________________________________________________________________|41.5%|-0.28%
Column||||||2_4_5_7_3_6_1_3_4_6_7_4_9_3_8_6_7_5_5_1_4_9_4_7_7_1_1_6_7_9_9_3_|
Count|||||||____________3_________________________8___________3_O___________|


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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:31 am

Dollar index has best week in nearly 2 years.
Aug 13 (Reuters) - The dollar on Friday marked its best week against a basket of major
currencies in nearly two years, as worries about the strength of the global economy fed short-
covering and safe-haven demand for the greenback.

The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 3.2
percent this week to 82.943. That was the biggest weekly gain since it rose nearly 5 percent in
the week ended Oct. 26, 2008.

Worries that a slower U.S. economy could cause headwinds for global growth led investors to
sell risky assets and buy dollars as a safe-haven play, traders said

The US Dollar Index rallied off support at 80. Penetration of the descending trendline
indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size20X3 or(6.28%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 211 Month ~ 6405 Day
Database 916 records 82.92 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-08-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

Code: Select all
120.0|~2OO||__________________o_x_+_____________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.0|~4OO||____________x___x_o_x_o_+___________________|2.08%|66.9%
116.0|~6OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|3.74%|64.07%
114.0|~8OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|5.4%|61.24%
112.0|~1OOO|____________x_o_x_o___o_______+_____________|7.06%|58.42%
110.0|~12OO|____________x_o_______o_________+___________|8.72%|55.59%
108.0|~14OO|____________x_________o___________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.0|~16OO|____________x_________o_____________+_______|12.04%|49.93%
104.0|~18OO|________x___x_________o_______________+_____|13.7%|47.1%
102.0|~2OOO|____x___x_o_x_________o_________________+___|15.36%|44.27%
100.0|~22OO|____x_o_x_o_x_________o___________________+_|17.02%|41.44%
98.00|~24OO|____x_o_x_o_________+_o_x___________________|18.68%|38.61%
96.00|~26OO|x___x_o_x_________+___o_x_o_________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.00|~28OO|x_o_x_o_x_______+_____o_x_o_________________|22%|32.96%
92.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_______+_______o___o_x_______________|23.66%|30.13%
90.00|~32OO|x_o_x_______+_____________o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.00|~34OO|__o_x_____+_______________o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.98%|24.47%
86.00|~36OO|__o_x___+_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.64%|21.64%
84.00|~38OO|__o_x_+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.00|~4OOO|__o_+_____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|31.96%|15.98%
80.00|~42OO|__+___________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|33.62%|13.15%
78.00|~44OO|______________________________o_x_o___o_x_+_|35.28%|10.33%
76.00|~46OO|______________________________o_x___+_o_+___|36.93%|7.5%
74.00|~48OO|______________________________o_x_+___+_____|38.59%|4.67%
72.00|~5OOO|______________________________o_+___________|40.25%|1.84%
70.00|~52OO|______________________________+_____________|41.91%|-0.99%
Column||||||4_7_1_5_6_3_1_4_4_5_4_1_3_8_5_1_8_5_5_6_6_3_|
Count|||||||____O_______O_________4_______O_____________|


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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby KajolThappar » Thu Sep 23, 2010 1:43 pm

Either Technical or Fundamental analysis can be used in the forex market. Traders can make legitimate cases for either, and many will incorporate both into their strategy.

Fundamentals:
Traders using fundamentals look at the relative strength of each economy by reviewing economic information such as interest rates, GDP, employment, inflation, stock market healthm, etc. Traders/investors will move their money to the country where they can get the highest rate of return. And since you're trading in currency pairs, you want to trade the strongest currency versus the weakest currency when judging by the fundamentals. You can compare this to stocks. Everyone wants to buy the stock that has the brightest outlook, strongest growth, biggest profits, etc. The difference with currencies is that you're judging the countries economy instead of a companies balance sheet and growth outlook. Sure, political events will affect a currency, and so do management decisions...Steve Jobs at Apple, Ken Lay at Enron,etc.

Technicals: The same technical analysis used in the stock market can be used in the currency markets. In fact, some traders find it works better since there is less gapping in currencies. So you can use technical indicators, support, resistance, trendlines, candlesticks, etc.

Here are two resources to learn more about fundamental and technical analysis. I say it's best for you to learn both and use which one you find works best for your trading.
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Re: Fundamental analysis

Postby MDunleavy » Sun Nov 21, 2010 5:34 pm

Image

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size 170X3 or(5.33%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 221.19 Month ~ 6503 Day
Database 930 records 78.48 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-11-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
Code: Select all
120.7|~17O||________________________+___+___________________________|-0.16%|70.72%
119.0|~34O||____________________+___x_o_x_+_________________________|1.25%|68.32%
117.3|~51O||____________________x_+_x_o_x_o_+_______________________|2.66%|65.91%
115.6|~68O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________|4.07%|63.51%
113.9|~85O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________________|5.49%|61.1%
112.2|~1O2O|____________________x_o_x_o___o_______+_________________|6.9%|58.7%
110.5|~119O|____________________x_o_x_____o_________+_______________|8.31%|56.29%
108.8|~136O|____________________x_o_______o___________+_____________|9.72%|53.89%
107.1|~153O|____________________x_________o_____________+___________|11.13%|51.49%
105.4|~17OO|________________+___x_________o_______________+_________|12.54%|49.08%
103.7|~187O|____________+___x_+_x_________o_________________+_______|13.95%|46.68%
102.0|~2O4O|________+___x_+_x_o_x_________o___________________+_____|15.36%|44.27%
100.3|~221O|________x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________o_____________________+___|16.77%|41.87%
98.60|~238O|____+___x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_o_x_____________________+_|18.18%|39.46%
96.90|~255O|____x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________+___o_x_o_____________________|19.59%|37.06%
95.20|~272O|+___x_o_x_o___o_x_______+_____o_x_o_____________________|21%|34.65%
93.50|~289O|x_+_x_o_x_____o_______+_______o_+_o_____________________|22.41%|32.25%
91.80|~3O6O|__o_x_o_x___________+_________+___o_x___x_______________|23.82%|29.84%
90.10|~323O|__o_x_o_x_________+_______________o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.23%|27.44%
88.40|~34OO|__o_+_o_x_______+_________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.65%|25.04%
86.70|~357O|__+___o_x_____+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.06%|22.63%
85.00|~374O|______o_x___+_____________________o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.47%|20.23%
83.30|~391O|______o_x_+_______________________+___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.88%|17.82%
81.60|~4O8O|______o_+_____________________________o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|32.29%|15.42%
79.90|~425O|______+_______________________________+___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|33.7%|13.01%
78.20|~442O|==========================================o=x=o===o=x=o=X35.11%|10.61%
76.50|~459O|__________________________________________o_x_____o_x_o_|36.52%|8.2%
74.80|~476O|__________________________________________o_x___+_o_+___|37.93%|5.8%
73.10|~493O|__________________________________________o_x_+___+_____|39.34%|3.39%
71.40|~51OO|__________________________________________o_+___________|40.75%|0.99%
69.70|~527O|__________________________________________+_____________|42.16%|-1.41%
Column||||||1_3_5_9_1_3_4_5_6_3_1_5_6_5_4_1_3_8_4_6_6_1_1_6_6_8_8_7_|
Count|||||||________1___________1_________5___________2_O___________|

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