Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:58 am

06 FEBRUARY 2013: ASIA RECOVERS ON EURO ZONE DATA

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian shares recovered on Wednesday as solid euro zone data calmed nerves stirred by potential political turmoil in Spain and Italy. Strong balance sheet numbers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and new signs of recovering inside the euro zone gave the Euro a new boost. The single currency rebounded strongly. EURO/USD trades at 1.3579. Stock markets in Europe and US also rebounded after dropping steeply on Monday. The Japanese Yen continues to be under pressure. USD/JPY touched 93,91, the highest seen since May 2010.

Investors’ optimism returned when the vast US services sector extended a three year expansion in January. Business activities in the euro zone, simultaneously, showed signs of recovery. US and European stocks rallied and recouped most of their losses after a sharp sell-off and profit taking the previous session sparked by renewed worries on the euro zone debt crisis. Oil- and commodity prices rebounded. Brent crude is trading close to USD 117 a barrel. Also copper prices are up.

The Japanese yen was further weakened by the prospect of a new appointment of Governor of Bank of Japan. The actual candidate is said be “dovish” and in favor of further active monetary easing steps. The present Governor would leave his post in mid-March. These news had Japan’s benchmark Nikkei index to soar 1,3% to a 33-month high. The Australian stock markets are also up accompanied by a strong Australian dollar. British Pound (GDP) is back on lowest levels seen against USD this year at 1.5661.

In the US president Barack Obama urged Congress to pass a small package of spending cuts and tax reforms to delay larger, automatic cuts from going into effect and damaging the economy on March 1. The proposal was quickly rebuffed from Republicans who saw it as a bid for new tax increases. The US Justice Department yesterday initiated legal proceedings against the rating agency, Standard and Poor, which it accuses for manipulating markets and actively contributing to the financial crisis in 2008.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:21 am

07 FEBRUARY 2013: MARKETS ATTENTION ON DRAGHI AND ECB

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Growth prospect for the euro zone is in the focus of investor’s interest when European Central Bank (RCB) President Mario Draghi meets with ECB colleagues in Brussels today. The policy meeting comes amidst optimism that the worst for the euro zone might be over. Public tiredness over harsh austerity measures and political turmoil in Spain and Italy, however, gloom in the background. Asian and American markets as well as EURO/USD took a pause waiting for ECB’s directions.

Growing optimism that the euro zone economy may be near a bottom has propelled the euro to a 14-half-month against the dollar and a 34 month peak against the Japanese Yen. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3520. Against British sterling, GBP, the Euro has also gained substantially and stands at a 15 month high. ECB is expected to keep interest rates at a record low 3,75%. Traders will focus on comments on the Euro’s strength and outlook for the euro zone economy.

Draghi’s strong verbal commitment to defend the Euro last autumn proved decisive for the Euro. The ECB’s bond buying scheme has further helped erase the funding strains on highly indebted euro zone members. The bond buying has strongly reduced the risks of the region’s crumbling debt. A corruption scandal in Spain and uncertainty over the outcome of the Italian elections has, however, brought focus back on the region’s political instability.

Crude oil and gold prices have been trading up the last hours. Brent is again sniffing at USD 117 a barrel. Gold is at 1680. USD/JPY trades at 93.45 after reaching 94,075 on Wednesday. In US the attention on budget cuts are back in the headlines. It is indicated that if automatic government spending cuts are kept in place only for a month or two, this may have a serious negative impact on the US economy and possibly trigger a brief recession.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:22 am

08 FEBRUARY 2013: DRAGHI TALKS DOWN THE EURO

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments



The Euro dropped to its lowest level in two weeks on Friday. The fall back came after the President of ECB (the European Central Bank), Mario Draghi, at a press conference yesterday warned against a strong Euro’s negative impact on the European economy. The French President had issued a similar warning prior to the ECB meeting, underlying the risk for a currency war spurred by monetary easing in US and Japan. Currency policies will be on the top of the agenda when the G-20 meets later in the month.

Draghi stressed that the exchange rate is important for growth and price stability. Draghi expected that economic activity in the euro area would gradually recover in 2013, but there are more negative than positive risks. Euro/USD traded at 1.3410 after falling close to one percent on Thursday. The Euro slipped to a two week low against the British pound which broadly strengthened on comments from the incoming Bank of England director, Mark Carney. Carney gave no hints that he favored immediate British monetary easing.

Despite the decline the Euro seems relatively strong. The common currency might be supported by the perception that ECB’s monetary easing is much weaker than US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. While the ECB is shrinking its balance sheet, FED and BOJ are expanding theirs. The Euro is probably going to stabilize in 1.33 – 1.35 area unless there is a major upset in the forthcoming Italian elections.

Shares were weaker yesterday prompted by Draghi’s comments on the Euro and Europe’s outlook. Wall Street fall and Growth sectors were especially hard hit. Asian shares, however, rose on solid Chinese trading data. China said that exports grew 25 % compared with January 2012. This confirms a solid recovery trend. Oil prices continue to rise. Brent crude is trading close to USD 118 a barrel. Copper prices are up 0,5%.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:48 am

11 FEBRUARY 2013: BRENT CRUDE JUMPS TO 119

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Most Asian markets were closed with the Lunar New holiday shutting financial centers in China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. Trading was light and volatile. Australian shares were flat after closing on 34-month high on Friday following positive export figures from China. Brent crude oil which touched its highest in nine months on Friday, remained unchanged just below USD 119 a barrel.

Foreign exchange trading was choppy with thin volumes. Traders interpreted this as a result of last week’s slightly dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB). The President of ECB, Mario Draghi, indirectly warning against that the raising strength of Euro may hurt economic development inside the euro zone. Euro/USD fell briefly to 1.3325 Monday morning and is now trading at 1.3375. The Japanese yen is also strengthened both against Euro and USD. USD/JPY trades at 92,25.

The Euro has also weakened on the cash payment scandal in Spain which engulfs the Prime Minister. Confidence in Italy is also shaken prior to the February 24-25 elections. The worries on the euro zone debt crisis and uncertainties in the southern periphery of Europe is back on the agenda. This probably means that the upside of the Euro is likely to be short-lived and limited.

European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said in an interview during the weekend that EU wants closer coordination on currencies to avoid potential damaging disruptions to world trade. The remarks came amid a standoff between France and Germany over whether a strengthened Euro needs an official EU- response or should be left to the currency markets.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:19 am

13 FEBRUARY 2013: YEN TURBULENCE PRIOR TO G-20

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


There is big nervousness in the currency markets prior to the G-20 meeting in Moscow Thursday and Friday. Yesterday the Japanese Yen was in focus. Since December the Yen has fallen 13% against the USD and lost even more ground to the Euro. After two decades of stagnation there is, however, an understanding among the world’s 20 biggest developed and developing states that Japan ought to take firm steps to better its economy and secure economic growth.

The Yen swung dramatically on Wednesday. A statement from the G-7 (the group of the leading 7 industrialized nations) on Japan was differently interpreted. The Japanese Minister of Finance said that the statement recognizes that Japan’s monetary easing measures were not aimed at influencing and distort foreign exchange markets. Then a G-7 official stated the exact opposite. The statement was indeed meant to express such concerns. The yen thereafter fluctuated wildly. USD/JPY was jumping up and down between 92 and 94 yen to a dollar after falling 13% since December.

The incident illustrates the fear for a currency war looming in the background prior to the G-20 meeting. An effort to soothe market and avoid excessive moves in Yen had exactly the opposite effect. Other currency pairs were also affected. Euro/USD was fluctuating between 1.3325 and 1.3450. Oil prices rebounded after falling in the first part of Wednesday. New York Crude, NYMEX, is at 97 and Brent crude trades at USD 118,40 a barrel.

Stocks on Wall Street closed modestly higher on Tuesday. Dow Jones was within striking distance of an all-time high as investors looked ahead to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address. Obama challenged a divided Congress to back his proposals to create middle-class jobs and overhaul gun and immigration laws.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:12 am

14 FEBRUARY 2013: ASIAN SHARES RISE ON RISK SENTIMENT

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian shares rose on improving risk sentiment while Wall Street took a breather ahead of the G-20 meeting which starts in Moscow today. The Asia-Pacific MSCI-index and Australian shares were both up 0,6%. Dow Jones Industrial fell 0,26%. Investors remained cautious after the S&P index briefly hit its highest intraday level since November 2007. S&P is up 6,6% so far this year.

The Japanese Yen continues to be in focus prior to the G-20 meeting with finance and central bank officials from the 20 biggest and most influential countries in the world. Since November Yen has lost or depreciated 20% against the USD. The fall against the Euro is even higher. The leading Western powers are all using the printing press as their major tool to stimulate economic growth and obtain trading advantages. The steep fall of the yen illustrates the depth of the non-declared currency war.

At its press conference after the meeting of Bank of England (BOE) yesterday, BOE as well kept the door open for monetary easing indirectly meaning considering active use of the printing press. Taken into account that China for 10 – 15 years were under continued US pressure to appreciate their currency, power talks. An ugly currency war, might easily develop into a trading war with outright military confrontations looming in the background.

The British Pound (GDP) lost more than 100 points against the Euro and USD after the BOE meeting. USD/JPY which was down in the first part of yesterday, continues to lose ground. This morning USD/JPY is trading towards 94,65 seen on Monday. This is the lowest since 2010. Euro/USD trades at 1.3450 after factory statistics yesterday demonstrated that the euro zone might have reached bottom. Copper is up while oil prices have lost ground. Brent crude trades at USD 117, 98; down one dollar a barrel since Wednesday.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Feb 15, 2013 3:31 am

15 FEBRUARY 2013: YEN FIRM WAITING G-20 SIGNALS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Japanese Nikkei fell 1,5% as the Yen firmed against the USD and Euro prior to a crucial G-20 meeting today. The strong appreciation of Yen since last December has caught worldwide attention as government and bank officials from the 20 most influential countries meet in Moscow. USD/JPY dropped from its peak level of 94,65 on Monday and trades at 92,25. JPY has also gained ground against the Euro. Data published yesterday, show that the Euro zone at the end of 2012 was slipping ever deeper into recession.

The looming currency war and recessionary pressure seen most clearly in Western Europe, have focused investor’s attention back on concerns about Europe’s fundamentals. The optimism which created a strong stock market rally at the end of and the beginning of this year, seems most likely to fade away as attention turns back to the weak economic growth especially in the Euro zone. Nothing much is expected to come out of the G-20 meeting. The most likely result is that the leading powers agree to disagree on where to go from here.

The Euro fell to a two weeks low against the dollar trading at 1.3350. Economic output in the 17-country euro zone fell 0,6% in the last quarter of 2012, the steepest decline since 2009 and far higher than the forecast. These results would most likely trigger a new discussion on austerity. The possibility of negative deposit rates in the euro zone also weighed in on the Euro. The pullback in the Euro lifted the dollar index, DXY, to a one month high at 80,621.

Merger activity helped the Wall Street indexes higher yesterday. Heinz shares jumped 20 % when Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway declared its intention to buy the food company. A small fall in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits, also supported the market which has hovered at the same levels for the last two weeks. There is no clear upside trigger. The British pound is still struggling and trades close to 11,55 against the USD. Precious metals are falling. Oil prices are still high, but have lost ground over the last trading hours.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:46 am

18 FEBRUARY 2013: YEN PLUNGES WITH GBP UNDER PRESSURE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The yen continues to plunge after the G-20 meeting avoided direct criticism of Japan’s aggressive reflation plan which has seen a 20% depreciation in the relation between USD and JPY over the last couple of months. The G-20 opted not to single Tokyo out, but committed its members to refrain from competitive devaluations. Monetary policies should only be directed at price stability and growth. Japan saw the decision as a green light to pursue its expansionary policies.

The dollar soared 0,7 percent to 94,17 inching closer to 94,465 reached last Monday. This is the highest level seen on Yen since May 2010. Euro/JPY traded at 125,51 close to the peak on 127,71 touched on February 6. EURO/USD is at 1.3334, stabilizing on the same level before the end of last week. The British Pound (GBP) trades at 1,5489 against the dollar close to the bottom level from last week.

The weak yen had a positive influence on Japanese stocks. The Nikkei average 225 jumped 2,3% with exporters and banks being the big winners. Japan is waiting the appointment of a new Governor of Bank of Japan (BOJ). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s candidate, Toshiro Muto, is expected to intensify stimulus to energize the economy. The Asia Pacific, MSCI-index eased back 0,2% after reaching a 18-1/2-month high on Friday. Australian shares AXJO rose 0,5%. Markets in China and Taiwan have opened again after one week holiday.

Demand for commodities are expected to be in focus as China returns to market. Policymakers in Washington are discussing a package of budget cuts to kick in on March 1st. Such austerity measures will probably have a negative impact on US growth. Crude prices are marginally down. Brent trades at USD 117,82 a barrel. Gold has rebounded from a six month low and trades at 1612 on bargain hunting and Chinese buying of physical gold after the Lunar New Year.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:25 am

19 FEBRUARY 2013: NO CURRENCY WAR, DRAGHI CLAIMS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


In the aftermath of the G-20 meeting in Moscow leading central bankers along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have strongly dismissed that there is a currency war. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tried his best to take the heat of the debate, talking to European lawmakers in Brussels yesterday; ECB is closely following the strength of the Euro, but here is no currency war, Draghi claimed.

He admitted, however, that Euro’s exchange rate is important for growth and inflation in the euro zone. He feared that inflation may be pulled down, too, far. The exchange rate’s impact on inflation is closely watched. In its statement Saturday G-20 stated that there are none competitive devaluations between leading economic powers. Japan escaped open criticism for its expansive policies. Along with the US Japan has been under fire for conducting loose monetary policies.

Draghi stressed that the exchange rate movements were not explicitly targeted against competitors. They are mainly results of macroeconomic policies to boost domestic economies. Japan is trying to create growth and turn decade’s stagnation around. Draghi demonstrated understanding for such moves, but urged on the other hand world partners to exercise a very, very strong verbal discipline.

Whether such verbal constraint would work is early to say. But over the last 24 hours at least currency fluctuations have been minimal. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3354. USD/JPY is hovering below 94 and USD/GDP, another big loser over the last days, stays flat at 1.5475. There are small changes in oil and commodity prices. Stock markets in US was closed yesterday due to George Washington ’s Birthday. Asian shares barely moved. The Japanese Nikkei fell 0,5% eyeing appointment of a new BOJ director and risks in the euro zone.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Feb 20, 2013 3:48 am

20 FEBRUARY 2013: MERGERS KEEP US-STOCKS HIGH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Both Dow Industrial and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained during yesterday’s session, and closed near all-time highs. Dow tipped over the 14 000 mark and ended at 14 035. The technology index, Nasdaq, was up 0,68%. A surge in mergers have stimulated market activity. There have lately been several acquisitions in a capital strong market. Fourth quarter earnings for S&P rose 5,6%. Tuesday it was rumored that the second biggest office retailer, Office Depot, was in merger talks with a smaller rival.

Asian stocks rose to its highest level since August 2011 on improved global economic outlook and increased risk appetite. The South East Asian MSCI-index added 0,7% and rose for a third day in row spurred by a strong technology sector. Corporate earnings have been generally positive. A shift from defensive to cyclical stocks have also helped stock markets. Australian stocks continue to rise on better commodity perspectives.

The Japanese yen regained some ground, but remained jittery. USD/JPY was swinging in a narrow range between 93,50 and 94 on concerns whether Japan may be able to pursue its strong advocated reflationary policies. The one week delay in the appointment of a new Governor for Bank of Japan, has also raised concerns. The Euro has gained ground both against yen and USD. Euro/USD trades again above 1.34.

British Sterling (GBP) is under continuous pressure. GBP lunged to a seven-month low at 1.5414 yesterday. USD/GDP trades at 1.5444. The records from the last meeting in Bank of England (BOE) are expected to be released later in the week. It is said that the records contain willingness to higher inflation and monetary easing. This comes among speculation that United Kingdom soon could lose its triple A-rating.

The trend in the commodity markets is positive. Copper is up. US crude steadied at USD 96,70 a barrel. Brent eased 0,2% to 117,34. Precious metals are under strong downward pressure after one of the leading market makers, George Soros, last week sold substantial qualities of gold.

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