Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:34 am

UWC is proud to provide daily market reviews by the well-known financial expert – Mr. Arne Treholt, a former Political Secretary to the Minister of Shipping and Foreign Trade, then Deputy Minister of Law of the Sea of the Norwegian Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He also held the position of Counselor for Economic Development and Social Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and was member of the Norwegian Mission to the United Nations, New York. At the moment Mr. Treholt is a Vice President and a Business Development Director of United World Capital.
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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:34 am

05 NOVEMBER 2012: ELECTION UNCERTAINTY TEMPERS OPTIMISM

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The USD continues to climb against all currencies prior to a presidential election, too, close to call. The Euro is once again under strong downward pressure with Greece back in focus after what is described as a “disastrous” 2013-budget. Both deficit and debt targets seem to overshoot due to a deeper than forecast Greek recession.

Greek and Euro zone policy makers’ effort to shape a deal to prevent the collapse of the Greece’s rescue packages, hang on the cliff. There remains room for nasty surprises and potentially a failure of the intended bailout. This has brought the possibility for a Greek exit from the Euro zone back on the agenda. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2831. USD is also stronger against JPY trading at 80,42.

Last week saw a string of encouraging data releases from the US culminating in Friday’s robust non-farm payrolls report on 171 000 new jobs created in October. The unemployment rate was up from 7.8 to 7,9 percent indicating a slow, but sustained economic recovery.

Uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s US presidential election along with worries about the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and spending cuts facing the United States, limited the feel good factor of investors. With the outcome of the elections hanging on the edge, markets are left concerned whether the newly elected president will have the political capability to deal with the fiscal cliff. Uncertainties related to automatic fiscal tightening may undermine the recent economic rebound. This does not bode well for general risk appetite.

Wall Street’s initial positive reaction to the positive labor figures quickly faded and gold and industrial metal prices sank with the dollar climbing sharply.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:17 am

06 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO DROPS TO TWO MONTHS LOW

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Euro continued to fall and reached its lowest level against the USD in two months trading at 1.2787 Tuesday morning. The outlook for the Euro is clouded by uncertainty over the outcome of a Greek parliamentarian vote on further austerity steps needed for Athens to secure international aid. Prior to the vote in the Parliament on Wednesday Prime Minister Antonis Samaras stated that Greece would run out of funds within some few weeks without a quick international bailout injection.

The Greek Parliament shall vote on a package of measures of cost cuts and tax hikes of a total value of 13,5 billion Euros by 2016. Approval of the measures are crucial to unlocking 31,5 billion Euros in aid from the International Monetary Fund, IMF and EU. Release of the bailout funds have been kept on hold for months. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the parliamentarian vote, has pushed the euro out of the 1.2800 – 1.3000 trading range held since mid-September. The next immediate technical support level is around 1.2740.

Stocks advanced modestly in New York on Monday in a quiet session the day before the presidential election. President Obama has a slight lead in the last opinion polls, but whatever the outcome the election’s resolution will finally end the uncertainty that has kept the markets stagnant for the past few weeks. Reelection of Obama or a Romney victory could anyhow lead to a relief rally. Nasdaq was the strongest performer yesterday helped by a rally in Apple. Apple’s stocks rose 1,4% after falling 17 percent since its closing high of USD 705 on September 21.

The Australian dollar is steady at USD 1,0369 prior to Australian Reserve Bank’s rate decision later today. A rate cut of 25 basis point to cash rate to 3,0 % is expected. In relation to Japanese yen the USD eased to 80,23 after rallying to a six-month high of 80,68 on Friday.

Oil prices steadied. Brent crude is trading at 108 a barrel caught between uncertainties on the outcome of the US presidential elections and worries about Greece and the euro zone crisis which could delay a global economic recovery and hurt oil demand. Gold (1686) and silver (31.10) have picked up from its lows on Friday.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:44 am

07 NOVEMBER 2012: DOLLAR FALLS ON OBAMA VICTORY

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Securing victory in important swing states as Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida, President Obama seems to have won a clear majority and reelection in the US Presidential elections. As the results started to come in during the night, stock futures and the dollar fell against a basket of major currencies. Euro/USD which slipped to 1.2760 on Monday is up to 1.2860 in morning trade in Asia. Gold jumped 40 dollar to 1725 and benchmark treasuries rose. Also oil prices are up. NYMEX at 888 and Brent crude trading at 110,80. Asian shares rose on Obama’s reelection. The result means an end to the uncertainty which have ridden the markets for last weeks, and signals no dramatic shift in US economic policy.

Obama’s victory is in line with market’s expectations. A close race was, however, expected. The general view is that a second Democratic term under Obama would favor bonds. It is perceived that Obama favors bonds and low interest rates. The Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, is generally seen as more business friendly. As a former business executive he is seen as more supportive for equities. As results came in, US futures fell while Asian shares rose amid relief that there was a clear-cut result. The South East Asian Pacific Index, MSCI, was up 0,4 %.

The general signal coming from world markets is that the election outcome is in line with expectations. The temporary fall in the USD suggests that any precautionary positioning in USD has been premature. The Australian AXJO index rose 0,5 percent supported by overnight rise in commodities that boosted mining stocks. The Australian dollar hit a five-week high at 1.0461. Euro/USD touched a session high on 1.2876 being safely backed in the corridor between 1.28 and 1.30 which we have seen over the last five – six weeks. Analysts see Obama’s victory as a continuation of monetary quantitative easing. Active use of the printing press would put pressure on the dollar and boost bonds.

The big domestic challenge for Obama is seen to be cooperation with a Republican dominated Congress in how avert the looming “fiscal cliff” where USD 600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax increases risk pushing the economy into deep recession. Any sharp downturn in the world’s largest economy would raise concerns about demand for industrial metals. The markets first reaction has been to send commodities, oil and precious metals higher.

In Greece parliament later today is going to vote on a package of 13,5 billion Euro of spending cuts and tax hikes. These austerity measures are crucial to unlocking 31,5 billion euro in aid from global lenders to keep the debt-ridden country afloat. A negative vote is going to put the Euro under new pressure.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:24 am

08 NOVEMBER 2012: WALL STREET SINKS ON FISCAL CLIFF FEARS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Dow Jones industrial lost more than 300 points in a sell-off on Wednesday one day after the reelection of president Obama. The major stock indexes were down over 2 percent in the wake of the US presidential elections as investors focus shifted to the looming “fiscal cliff” and the troubles with the Euro zone. The American indexes closed at their lowest levels since early August. The stock exchanges in Europe had experienced similar steep falls earlier on Wednesday with the debt crisis and new austerity measures in Greece back on the top of the agenda. Asian stocks also tumbled as US fiscal cliff looms.

Financial stocks and energy shares, two sectors that could face increased regulation after Barack Obama’s re-election, were hardest hit. Oil prices which started the day on a positive note fell 4 percent. Brent crude is trading at 107.80 and New York crude is back below USD 85 a barrel. After the elections considered as a major source of market uncertainty are finished, focus has turned to the “fiscal cliff”. Investors worry that if Democrats and Republicans are not able to agree on spending cuts and tax increases amounting to USD 600 billion, the overall economy will seriously suffer and derail the economic recovery.

The fall in the stock markets yesterday were spurred by comments from the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, stressing that also Germany started to feel the impact of the financial crisis. A corresponding report from the European Commission concluded that there barely would be any growth in the Euro zone next year. The reports dashed any hopes for short term improvement. Some analysts, however, saw the slide in stocks as a buying opportunity arguing that Europe’s troubles already were priced into markets. The Euro which made a strong rebound in the morning yesterday by bouncing back into the last weeks trading range between 1.28 and 1.30 versus dollar plunged hundred points and continues down in early Asian trade at 1.2750. Japanese yen is strengthened against the green back at 79,85. Precious metals have fluctuated heavily during the start of the week. After recovering from the low 1680 last week, Gold jumped to 1725 after the outcome of the elections, fell down to 1708 and is now trading at 1715.

In Athens Greek police fired teargas and water cannon at protesters hurling petrol bombs outside parliament in one of the biggest rallies in months against new austerity measures necessary to release bail-out funding from the International Monetary Fund, EU and the European Central Bank. Parliament approved the austerity measures by a razor thin margin in a heated debate into Thursday morning. The measures will make it easier to hire and fire workers. The junior ruling partner, the Democratic left, abstained, but New Democracy, the part of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, and its Socialist Pasok allies were able to muster 153 out of 300 votes. 150 were necessary to secure the approval of spending cuts, tax hikes and weakening of labor’s rights.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Nov 09, 2012 5:31 am

09 NOVEMBER 2012: GLOBAL MARKETS DOWN ON NEW UNCERTAINTIES

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Stocks fell in Europe, the United States and in morning trade in Asia and could be in line for more weakness as worries about Washington’s ability to find a timely solution to the “fiscal cliff” continue to dominate investor thinking. Along with new fears on how the Euro zone shall tackle its debt problems, global markets are set for a dumpy ride for the end of the year. As stock markets fall the Euro is under renewed pressure and trades at a two-month low. In spite of the Greek Parliament’s approval of new austerity measures yesterday, Greek bail-out funds are kept on hold. The German Minister of Finance stated that the approval of the austerity package was not enough to keep Greece in the Euro.

McDonald’s shares fell 2 percent after the world’ largest hamburger chain reported its first monthly drop in global sales since 2003. Another heavy weight, Apple, fell 3,6 % and is down 20 percent from its all-time high of USD 705 a share in September. The leading chips supplier, Qualcomm, was the exception gaining 4,4 percent on an otherwise dark session. Investors worry that if no deal is reached in Congress over some 600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases, the slow recovery seen will be reversed. A comprehensive agreement to avoid the “fiscal cliff” still seems possible. A more likely scenario is for political leaders to find a temporary fix to buy time until the new Congress and Obama are sworn in early next year. The prospect of haggling over the budget has deepened investors’ uncertainty and tends to explain market’s reactions over the last days.

The Euro was furtherly undermined after the European Central Bank, ECB, as expected kept rates on hold yesterday. The President of ECB, Mario Draghi, sounded downbeat on the euro zone economy and stated that he was ready to start new purchases of bond. Faced with overwhelming problems European leaders once again seem to be mostly occupied by buying time. This creates downside risks for the Euro which is likely for a new test of bottom levels between 1.20 and 1.25 seen some months ago. The announcement of European bond buying and expectations for continued monetary easing in Obama’s second term has strengthened gold which has jumped more than 50 dollars since the beginning of the week, trading at 1735.

Oil prices have stabilized and copper is up. Brent crude is at 107,58. China presented lower than expected inflation figures and other data that indicates a slow turn around in Chinese economy. The Chinese Communist party congress is simultaneously electing a new leadership, securing a smooth transition to a younger generation of leaders who will be faced with corruption, economic and political reforms as their major challenges.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:40 am

12 NOVEMBER 2012: FEAR OF “FISCAL CLIFF” DOMINATES MARKETS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


By demanding higher taxes for the rich as a condition for any budget agreement with the Republicans, President Barack Obama, has opened the fiscal battle that is going to dominate the first months of his second term. Strengthened by the elections Obama has invited Republican leaders to a first round of high-stakes negotiations to prevent the fiscal cliff – a mix of $ 600 billion in spending cuts and tax rises that will go into effect next year unless a deal is reached by 31st December. In spite of some more optimistic signals markets seem to have built in prospects for a no-deal. Combined with technical analysis the development points towards a substantial correction in shares and the security markets in the coming months.

Talks to prevent that scenario, which could tip the US into recession and have disastrous effects on the global economy, were put on ice during the election campaign. Sticking to his principle stand that individuals like himself with an annual income of more than $ 500 000, must take their fair share Obama has kept the door open for details in a compromise package that can open for new ideas. A senior Republican Senator voiced Sunday support for the idea that increased tax revenues from wealthier Americans ought to be a part of a compromise to avoid falling over the “fiscal cliff”.

Global markets are watching Washington’s steps with increased worries. The Asian markets continued to fall in to-day’s morning trade in spite of a smooth Chinese leadership transition and better industrial production, investment figures and retail sales coming out of China for October. The Chinese authorities also seem to have inflation under better control, and the GDP for 2012 seems to end around the predicted 7,6 percent. A shrinkage in the Japanese in last quarter with 0,9 % also weighed in on investor’s sentiment in Asia. The contraction suggested faltering global demand and weaker consumer spending, and might push the world’s third largest economy into mild recession.

The Greek parliament which last Thursday approved new austerity measures, adopted yesterday night a new tough budget for 2013. European Finance ministers are meeting in Brussels to-day to discuss unfreezing of lending to Greece. There is no agreement within the Euro zone on how to make the debt sustainable. It seems, however, that Athens will be given two more years to cut its debt. Greece’s adoption of a new budget has for now stopped the free fall of the Euro. Euro/USD is trading 0,2 % up at 1.2730. USD is gaining against JPY at 79,485, but is weaker towards Australian dollar, the New Zealand KIWI, Swedish and Norwegian krones. Oil prices have stabilized with Brent trading above 109. Gold and silver, the big winners last week, continue slightly up with Gold at 1735 and Silver 32,62.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Nov 13, 2012 6:31 am

13 NOVEMBER 2012: EURO HITS 2-MONTH LOW ON GREECE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Euro dipped to a two-month low against the dollar. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2680 after Euro zone leaders and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, yesterday failed to agree on a long-term plan to reduce Greece’s debt. This has further delayed the disbursement of immediate aid to Athens. The Greek government is said to be running out of funds during this month. In an effort to secure new emergency funding the Greek parliament last Thursday approved new extensive austerity measures. On Sunday the Greek parliament adopted a strict austerity budget for 2013 seemingly to no avail.

Uncertainty over as well short-term financing and long term debt reduction has made the Euro tumble. After stabilizing inside a corridor between 1.28 and 1.30 for weeks, the Euro seems again in free fall. There is little chance that the Euro zone will desert Greece, but investors are frustrated by the lack of clarity. With no emergency funding in place, Greece plans to sell treasury bills during this week to refinance a 5 billion Euro issue maturing on Friday. The outcome of this auction is in the blue. Concerns on Greece’s ability to refinance would for sure put the Euro under new pressure. The Euro has been constantly falling since it peaked at 1.3140 in mid-October as the euphoria over the European Central Bank scheme to buy government bonds to help support Spain’s debt burden faded.

The European ministers agreed yesterday to grant Greece two more years to reach its budget target, but disagreed over who should shoulder the additional 33 billion Euro cost. Both Germany and Finland have to go back to their parliaments for final approval. The dollar index a measure of the dollar against six major currencies rose to its highest level since early September. Uncertainties on how US lawmakers shall tackle the “fiscal cliff” of spending cuts and higher tax rates may, however, come back and haunt the dollar. With the dollar also under pressure, JPY will again appear as a “safe haven” among currencies. USD/JPY is trading at 79,285.

Oil prices are under new downward pressure. Brent crude is tipping below USD 109 a barrel. New forecasts from IEA, The international Energy agency, IEA, is predicting that the United States would pass Saudi Arabia as an oil exporter by 2015 and become a net exporter of energy by 2020. Precious metals fell back yesterday consolidating heavy gains from last week-lows. Gold is at USD 1725 and Silver trades at 32.40.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:17 am

14 NOVEMBER 2012: HOME DEPOT AND CISCO WINNERS ON FLAT EXCHANGE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Microsoft, Caterpillar and IBM were the big losers when stocks were sold off late in the session in New York last night. Retailers were the bright spot when Home Depot raised its outlook. Cisco which presented results after the closing bell, rose 6,8 percent after reporting revenues and earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Home Depot, a home retail supplier, hit share prices levels not seen since April 2000, confirming greater optimism in the housing sector.

Concerns about the looming “fiscal cliff” kept investor activity subdued as lawmakers returned to Washington after November 6 elections. The markets are grappling with how a divided Congress will deal with a series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that will come into effect next year and threaten to take the largest world economy back into recession. Lawmakers were met by news that the US budget deficit continue to raise. The US Treasury said yesterday that October deficit was USD 120 billion larger than economists’ forecasts for a $ 114 million gap and up from $ 98 billion in October 2011. Growth in expenditures far outpaced rising receipts.

Asian shares and the Euro steadied on Wednesday morning, but lacked impetus for a decisive rebound threatened by the “fiscal cliff” and a delay in releasing more aid to debt-stricken Greece. The Euro/USD rebound from 1.260 on Tuesday and trades at 1.2720. USD/JPY stabilized around 79,50. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0,3 percent after falling to a seven-week low in the previous session. Tokyo’s Nikkei edged up 0,1 percent after seven straight days in the red.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:30 am

15 NOVEMBER 2012: OIL PRICES JUMP ON GAZA TENSION

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Oil prices jumped one and half dollar yesterday on increased violence in the Middle East. Brent crude trading at 109,75. The Head of the military arm of the Hamas Palestinian authority in Gaza was killed along with 10 others in Israeli missile strikes. The new unrest in the region which comes on the top of the Syrian conflict and Iranian-Western tensions on Iran’s nuclear program added to selling pressure on Wall Street. Both Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell substantially. Hardest hit was Bank of America, General Electric, Boeing and Caterpillar. Facebook stock jumped 12,6 percent as a share lock-up expires. Facebook has fallen more than 50 % percent since the IPO introduction.

In his first press conference after reelection president Barack Obama outlined a compromise on debt/taxes, a new immigration law and renew focus on climate as his immediate priorities. By pledging to raise taxes on the wealthy, Obama set up a drawn-out fight over the fiscal cliff, budget cuts combined with tax hikes. The deadline for reaching a deal between Republicans and Democrats Congress is set to 31st December. With talks over solving the “fiscal cliff” in early stages, investors are reacting to the uncertainty by shedding positions. This points towards a last minute cliffhanger solution. In the meantime the market is going to get punched every day as experienced on Wall Street yesterday.

Without a deal a series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts will start to take effect early next year. That could push the US economy into recession. Taxes on capital gains and dividends might rise as party of the negotiations. This shall probably push investors to sell in 2012 to pay lower taxes on their gains. Uncertainty inside the Euro zone with the bail-out tranches for Greece still in the air, add to the downside pressure in the equity markets. With the whole Middle Eastern region in deep problems with the Palestinian – Israeli conflict flaring up again, market sentiments remain subdued. Israel is threatening an invasion of Gaza as a following up of the killings. Egypt has recalled its ambassador from Israel in response.

Xi Jinping was yesterday elected new party chief of the Chinese Communist party and received a strong mandate to deal with problems ranging from corruption to economic uncertainty. Asian stocks fell as investors reacted to drawn-out negotiations the “fiscal cliff”. Japanese equities bucked the trend as a sharp slide in the Yen lifted exporters’ shares. The MSCI index fell 0,9 % as did the indexes in Australia and Hong Kong. Copper is weaker and precious metals stabile. Gold at 1725 and Silver at 32,60.

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