"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:50 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued its winning streak at the end of the week – the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.81. The Japanese, European and the US stock indices growth have added arguments for the concerns reduction about the world economic growth, but the US GDP strong data and other indicators increased the demand for the US dollar which further strengthened against major opponents. The second quarter US GDP second estimate was revised in the positive direction by 1.4% to the level of 3.7%. The US jobless claims number has declined by 6 thousand for the last week. Positive economic data once again led investors to think about the federal funds rate increase at the FOMC September meeting.

There was the world leading stock markets moderate demand during the day which also put pressure on the funding currencies that are the euro and the Japanese yen. In this context, the US currency enjoyed confident demand against its major competitors. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has finished the trading day with the price decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had increased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was again the Germany and the US negative bond yields which makes investments in the US assets attractive. Investors are studying the Germany inflation data. The CPI increased to 0,0% from 0,2% that was earlier.

The euro corrective decrease reached the strong support level of 1.1260 that was broken downwards. The small rebound upwards was formed. The resistance level of 1.1260retesting was followed by the rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.1050 and 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the second GDP estimate for the second quarter. Most of macroeconomic releases pointed to the fact that there will not be revision in the positive direction, as the unemployment in the second quarter has grown by 0.1%. On the other hand, the United States revised the first GDP estimate by 1.4%.

Sellers have broken through two strong support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5300 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.5200, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan retail sales rose by 1.6% y/y in July, still the growth by 1.1% y/y was expected. Last month the unemployment rate was 3.3%, which is 0.1% lower than in June and below economists' expectations by 3.4%. Household spending declined by 0.2 % in July with the price correction after a decrease by 2.0% in June. Economists had expected an increase by 1.0%.

The pair shows the dollar’s strengthening. The resistance level of 121.60 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 122.40. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level of 123.50.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.2% q/q and rose up by 1.2% y/y. The data was better than economists' expectations by 0.1% q/q 0.8% y/y. The private consumption growth was 0.3%, investments in equipment + 1.5%, Swiss exports fell by 0.2% in the second quarter.

The US dollar is recovering its positions, reaching the strong resistance level of 0.9650. This level was short-term broken upwards then there was a rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound.

There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors’ reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure.

The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates.

It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar.

The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:24 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears’ predominance in the market.

The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades.

Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast – the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand.

Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data.

The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers’ presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets.

The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Thu Sep 03, 2015 4:56 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%.

The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month.

The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen.

In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar.

The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization.

The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

Image
ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:46 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was volatile dynamics at the end of the last week. The main event was the US labor market data publication. This release results are always uneven. On the one hand, the Non-Farm index came out worse than the consensus forecast at the level of 173 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate more rapidly reduced as well as the average earnings increased. The dollar came under pressure in recent weeks as the China slowing growth pace prompted investors to temper the first Fed rate increase expectations. The dollar has grown against the commodity currencies that were contributed partially by the oil prices decline.

At the beginning of the new week the euro has grown against the dollar; the pair EUR/USD has increased. Earlier the euro fell to the two-week low against the dollar after the European Central Bank pointed to the current program QE increase possibility and also lowered its growth and inflation forecast. The yen showed its decrease at the beginning of the trading week, the pair USD/JPY started the week with a growth, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The trades were determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US two-year bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations are confidently growing that will support the demand for the dollar. On the contrary, the stock market is showing a negative trend which in turn is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price started the weak upward correction. The resistance level o 1.1150 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

There is the US and the UK credit spreads increase in the bond market which is a positive factor for the US currency. The commodity market also sends a negative signal to the British currency. The Brent crude oil bearish trend will put pressure on the pound, because the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the yesterday’s trades.

The price is correcting upwards. The pair broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a holiday in the United States on Monday and the financial markets were closed on the occasion of Labor Day. Last week there was negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges where bearish sentiments prevailed. The moderate demand for the dollar was forecasted amid the US Treasury bond yields increase.

The price has also started the weak correction. The pair broke the level of 119.20 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 118.40. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 117.80.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:58 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trade volume was low during the Monday’s trades amid USA holiday. They have not published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, traders did not hurry to trade. On Tuesday the volatility increased on the market.

The euro showed mixed movements against the US dollar remaining in the narrow range with a growth amid the almost empty European calendar and the Labor Day celebration in the United States. The Germany and the euro zone statistics had a little impact. As it became known, the Germany industrial production rose up by 0.7 % in August, nearly offsetting the previous decline by 0.9 percent in June which was revised from -1.4 %. It has been the fastest growth till this year. However, it was slower than experts expected (one per cent).

The pound has significantly grown against the dollar, updating the Friday maximum. Analysts believe that happened due to the US currency sales resumption amid the weak trades.

The US dollar finished the trades with a growth against the yen having partially recovered amid the European and Japanese stock markets increase due to the risk appetite growth.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area inflationary pressure has been practically absent from the year beginning and the further oil market sales will have deflationary impact on the economy. In addition, the US and Germany government bond yields are increasing that points out to the investments attractiveness in the US assets.

The price continues the price correction. The price is trading above the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US unemployment rate has fallen by 0.5% since the beginning of this year while the UK unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%. The Brent crude oil is below the psychological level of $ 50/barrel. Considering the negative fundamental background we expect new sales wave in the short term that will also support the US currency.

Meanwhile the pound exchange rate fixated above the critical line 1.5200. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the level of 1.5300. the level of 1.5390 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets sales increased the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The second quarter Japanese gross domestic product fell to -0.3% which is higher than economists' expectations by -0.4%. The GDP declined by 1.2% on the annualized basis compared to the previous three months in the period from April to June and it was also higher than the forecast by -1.8%.

The price is still correcting. The pair tested the support level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana

Postby ValdisFFS » Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:10 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims.

The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics.

The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards.

The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the “risky assets".

The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets.

The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency.

The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers’ prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

Image
ValdisFFS
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:38 am

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