ACFX daily technical report – London Open 09.12.2014
EURUSD
The macro technical view
EURUSD traded higher in what was a technical correction.
As posted in prior articles further downside momentum could push EURUSD in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.
In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control way up at the 1.2455 level.
Current downside support comes in at 1.2325 and 1.2275.
Alternatively upside resistance can be found at 1.2360 and 1.2400.
GBPUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher. As with the EURUSD the move had more to do with a technical correction rather than any real news driven event.
The 4 hour and daily chart are now down trending with Friday’s price action now opening up the possibility of a GBPUSD now testing the monthly support trend line.
This support area comes in around 1.5200 to 1.5250.
The weekly and monthly time frames continue to point upwards therefore the 1.5200/50 area becomes a significant line in the sand.
A breach of this area could set the pound up for a multi month down trend.
However a bounce off major support opens up the possibility for a move to the 1.7050 level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5695 level.
The intraday support is at 1.5645 and 1.5625 levels.
Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5675 and 1.5695.
USDJPY
The macro technical view
Following the unsuccessful attempt at the 122.00 level USDJPY has experienced a strong downside correction.
I mentioned in my prior posts that this up move did look a little over bought, especially when one looked at the amount of green bullish candles on the weekly chart.
A correction was therefore on the cards.
The question is are we just seeing a 1 or 2 candle daily correction that will allow buyers to jump onto the long side at better values or will this correction be more cyclical and last week’s rather than days.
It is rather too early to tell however with all times frames from 4 hour and above being bullish the prudent choice would be to wait for a technical change of trend before deciding to commit to the short side of the trade.
In terms of the monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 120.25 and 121.00 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 118.60.
USDCHF
The macro technical view
After testing the 0.9800 area USDCHF has experienced a decent pull back.
This correction is a technical pull back with all time frames from 1 hour to the daily pointing up.
The weekly time frame will also turn positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.
The current upside resistance is at the 0.9800 and 0.9845 levels.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9690 levels.
AUDUSD
The macro technical view
Unlike the other majors AUDUSD has not had any type of a pullback.
The overnight NAB survey has only reinforced the negativity surrounding the Aussie Dollar.
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require so basing movement to happen on lower time frames.
This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8315.
This morning’s AUDUSD is testing the 0.8250 support level.
The current downside targets are 0.8250 and 0.8200.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8260 and 0.8315.
GOLD
The macro technical view
After experiencing a moderate pull back Gold is once again trading higher.
Gold continues to trade in a 4 hour uptrend as the price action attempts to paint a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high being painted.
Last week XAUSD closed higher and actually put in a higher low.
This price could possibly be the precursor of a double bottom forming on the weekly chart.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour trend is down with the line of control at 1214.95 levels.
Current support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1214.95.
OIL
The macro technical view
Oil continues to slide with the price action yesterday penetrating the 63.65 support level.
This level was identified in prior posts as the target the shorts where gunning for.
With the 63.65 now broken the 58.75 target now comes into play.
The recent price action has not put all time frames from 4 hour and above into negative territory.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 66.65 level.
Current support comes in at 60.00 and 58.75.
Alternatively upside resistance comes in at 63.65 and 66.85.
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