ACFX London opening technical report – 05.12.2014
EURUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday Super Mario decided to sit on his hands with respect to QE and this sent EURUSD higher.
This afternoon however we have the NFP being released.
A strong number will most likely push EURUSD down in the direction of the significant monthly trend line support that comes in at around the 1.2200 level.
In terms of other times frames the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts even after yesterdays minor rally are still trading in a technical down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
Yesterday’s breach of the 1.2325 level changed the 1 hour trend back to up with the line of control now at the 1.2275 level.
The upside targets for today are at the 1.2400 and 1.2445 levels.
Alternatively downside support comes in at 1.2360 and 1.2325
GBPUSD
The macro technical view
Yesterday was an indifferent day for Cable as GBPUSD traded around its open and then closed slightly lower.
On the 4 hour and daily charts we are seeing a great deal of consolidation as the price action holds above the 1.5585 low.
The possible double bottom scenario is still on play on both the 4 hour and daily charts.
However as mentioned in prior posts I still want to see the formation of a higher low and even better a higher high on the 4 hour chart.
This would give me more confidence that a bottom has formed.
Looking for a bottoming formation when the momentum being so bearish might be foolhardy however the markets do and will change their mood.
However in prior posts I wrote that the weekly chart does however not reinforce the negative picture that is found on the smaller time frames with the price action having corrected to an area of possible Fibonacci support following its initial bullish impulse move higher.
This view continues to be confirmed by the monthly chart. The monthly chart has actually put in a higher high.
As mentioned in my prior posts we have also had no less than 5 months of lower closes. Therefore the question now becomes is this drop over done?
With this in mind if GBPUSD can hold above the 1.5600 level we may just have the first signs that this longer term bullish play is about to unfold.
The upside target for GBPUSD being 1.7050. This was top of the bottom of the 2005 monthly down swing and top of the last isolated monthly high of July of this year.
A failure however to stay above the 1.5600 level could however see GBPUSD test the 1.5420 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday the pound is trading in a down trend with the line of control at the 1.5725 level.
The intraday support is at 1.5625 and 1.5585 levels.
Alternative upside resistance comes in at 1.5645 and 1.5675.
USDJPY
The macro technical view
Yesterday we got the push I was watching for above the 120.00 level.
However traders did push USDJPY close to the 119.30 support level in what was a bout of corrective profit taking however during the Tokyo session USDJPY has resumed its upward course once more.
All times frames from 4 hour and above are very bullish with the only real concern being the amount of green candles in succession that are shown on the weekly chart.
On the premise that what goes up must come down so at some point we could get a good correction.
For the time however with the upside momentum being so strong it is probably unwise to be brave enough to get in front of what has become a USDJPY juggernaut.
The monthly chart the level long term position traders will be hoping to hit is the 124.15 level which coincides to the last isolated monthly swing high.
The intraday technical outlook
Intraday USDJPY is trading in a 1 hour uptrend with the line of control at the 119.30 level.
Upside areas of interest being the 120.50 and 120.75 levels.
Alternatively down side levels are 119.30 and 119.00.
USDCHF
The macro technical view
Yesterday USDCHF experienced a strong pull back as it broke down through the 0.9730 and 0.9630 levels.
Support finally came in at the 0.9650 level.
Both the 4 hour and daily charts has now committed to the long side by painting a higher high swings.
The weekly time frame will also turned positive if we get a move above the 0.9845 level.
A similar scenario can be seen on the monthly chart with a breach of the 0.9970 level required before we can confirm that USDCHF is trading in a monthly uptrend.
The intraday technical outlook
The current intraday trend for USDCHF on the 1 hour chart is up with the line of control at 0.9650.
The current upside targets are 0.9730 and 0.9800.
Alternative downside targets are 0.9690 and 0.9650.
AUDUSD
The macro technical view
With a break beneath the 0.8400 level becoming a reality has there ever been a case of ground hog day being more applicable to a currency pair then AUDUSD.
All chart time frames from 4 hour, daily and weekly time frames are all pointing down.
The monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level is still in play.
In terms of bullish arguments the monthly chart is actually trading in an uptrend with the price action now trading in an area of Fibonacci support.
Confirmation that the potential for this long scenario was to play out does however require some basing movement to happen on lower time frames. This is something I have yet to notice.
The intraday technical outlook
AUDUSD is trading in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 0.8415.
The current downside targets are 0.8350 and 0.8315.
Alternatively resistance can be found at 0.8400 and 0.8445.
GOLD
The macro technical view
Gold has traded in a relatively small range over the past two business days with the price action confined within the 1203.00 and 1215.00 levels.
The 4 hour chart is now trading in an uptrend and is attempting to put in a higher low swing.
The bullishness has also been transferred to the daily chart with a higher high on the very of being painted.
I am now monitoring this week’s close to see if Gold can put in place a weekly double bottom.
On the monthly chart Gold continues to trade in an uptrend with the down move entering into an area of Fibonacci support.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour is up with the line of control at 1192.50 levels.
Current upside resistance comes in at 1208.00 and 1215.00
Alternatively support comes in at 1203.00 and 1192.50
OIL
The macro technical view
As mentioned in yesterday’s post the 68.00 area has now become a significant area of intraday resistance with the 68.20 level becoming the line in the sand.
The bulls really need to get a close above this level if the upside momentum is to be maintained.
All higher frames from 4 hours and up are bearish however the 4 hour time frame is attempting to paint a bullish higher low.
For the shorts a confirmation of the longer term downward momentum needs a significant breach of the 63.65 level.
As long as the price action can hold above this level there is a possibility that a base can be built base from where a corrective rally can unfold.
However a failure to hold above the 63.65 levels could see Oil challenge the 58.75 support level.
The intraday technical outlook
Oil continues to trade in an intraday down trend with the line of control at the 68.20 level.
A break above the 69.60 would technically change the 1 hour trend to up.
Current support is at the 66.65 level.
Alternatively successful test of the 8.20 level opens up the possibility of a move up to the 69.60 level.
MORE ON ACFXblog.com