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ACFX Technical report 25.11.2014.

PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:14 pm
by Atlas CapitalFx
ACFX Technical report 25.11.2014.



EURUSD and AUDUSD bounce off their lows



Encouraging news from Germany which saw an improvement in business sentiment helped EURUSD to extend the gains it made on Monday into the New York session.

However an intraday top was put in place during the Tokyo session as EURUSD backed away from the 1.2450 level.

Legal issues on Monday came to the fore as the head of the German Bundesbank fired a warning salvo across the bows of the ECB by claiming that legal obstacles needed to be overcome first before the printing presses could start to print fresh Euro notes that could be used to buy Government bond.

Jens Weidmanns comments have now put a question mark over ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi plans to inject life into Europe’s stagnant economies. This news helped EURUSD trade up from its two year low at the 1.2358 level.

EURJPY traded higher throughout the London session and this continued into the New York session. A top in EURJPY was finally put in overnight during Tokyo trading at 147.39.

This move into the 147.39 level has now put EURJPY within touching distance of the 149.12 level being the 6 year high that was put in place during last week’s trading.

However late into the Tokyo session EURJPY has experienced a corrective intraday pull back

USDJPY on Monday rose throughout the London session and put in an intraday high of 117.48 early in New York trading.

The gains extended into the Tokyo session with USDJPY at one point hitting the 118.57 level and then swiftly reversed and corrected abruptly downwards. As I write USDJPY is now trading at the 117.90 level.

Following the announcement of a massive expansion of the stimulus program by the Bank of Japan USDJPY has come under considerable pressure which has led to this currency pair hitting seven year high at 118.98.

However the rapid drop in value of the Yen has led to some official sources to express misgivings with the Japanese Minister of Finance to state that the rise in USDJPY was “too rapid”.

Furthermore during Tuesday’s Asia session Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda the Bank of Japan Governor said that although the fall in the value of the Yen was positive for exporters there would be a negative impact on households.

These concerns stem from the fact that Japan has to import food products and Japanese manufacturers have purchase from abroad raw materials. In both cases these commodities become more expensive as the Yen depreciates.

The minutes of the last Bank of Japan (31 October) meeting where released on Tuesday reported that four of the BOJ nine members opposed the expansion of the quantitative easing program over fears that it could impact on the government’s ability to finance the enormous public deficit.

The Aussie Dollar traded lower throughout Monday and this move continued well into Tuesdays Asia trading. This move lower was not halted until AUDUSD tested the 0.8565 level being last week’s low and is currently trading at 0.8595.

However this is well off the 0.8723 level that was put in on Friday off the back of China’s surprise move to cut interest rates.

There was some euphoria with regards the interest rate cut as China is Australia’s largest export market. However reality set in on Monday over fears over economic sluggishness that has hit Asia.