10th June 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Although Monday was a Bank Holiday for most of Continental Europe EURUSD did see a good range day. The price action initially tested the 1.3670 resistance level but was not able to sustain a move above this level. The failure to move higher eventually led to a strong down move with the price action closing under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 1.3764 level being the swing low of the 30th April has changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to be positive.
Last week’s price action and the rejection of the 1.3550 support level have put a question mark on the daily down trend.
From the perspective of a lower time frame the 4 hour chart on a swing bias has changed to up however yesterday we did see a strong corrective pullback. In remains to be seen if this pulls back is nothing more a controlled correction which will revert back to the upside. I am therefore monitoring the 1.3550 level for potential signs that EURUSD can hold above this level and trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows at the lows of Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3550 support level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see the price action test the 8 period daily moving averages.
GBPUSD
Summary
Monday GBPUSD had a quiet day as the price action closing marginally above the 1.6795 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD continues to trade in a daily and weekly uptrend with the price action having recently broken a large converging triangle. More recently we have seen a corrective zigzag formation set up which is made up of lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 1.6700 support level would put a question mark over the current daily up trend as this would most probably change the trend on a swing basis to down.
From an intraday point of view the price action on both a swing and moving averages basis on a 4 hour chart is trading in an uptrend.
From a weekly perspective the price action has traded under its 8 period weekly moving averages with our next technical support level being the 34 period weekly moving averages which come in at the 1.6485 level. As the both daily and weekly trends remain positive I am monitoring the price action at this potential value area where longs can be added.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade down to the 1.6700 level.
USDJPY
Summary
Monday USDJPY experinced a quiet day following its failure to to sustain a move towards the 103.00 level.
Market overview
The breach of the 101.32 level being the swing low of the 11th April has effectively changed the daily trend to down. However the weekly trend continues to trade within an uptrend. The price action over the past few trading sessions has seen a move above both the 102.13 and 102.36 pivot highs. This could indicate that the daily trend could be coming back into line with the bullish weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened negatively as the price action trades under the 8 period daily moving averages.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back into the direction of the 103.00 level.
USDCHF
Summary
Monday USDCHF bounced higher as the price action bounced off the 0.8930 support level and closed above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
The recent price action and the breach of the 0.8862 level being the 22nd April prior swing high has changed the daily trend to up. However the weekly price action continues trend in a downward direction.
There has been a great deal of recent volatility with the 0.9037 level being the high of last week’s spike being a line that needs to be crossed if we are to see further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc.
As such USDCHF continues to trade within a weekly downtrend and the price action has moved back into the Fibonacci resistance areas. I am therefore monitoring the possibility of a rotation of the price action back to the short side.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially test last week’s highs.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF break down from the Fibonacci area and trade down to the 34 period daily moving averages.
Gold
Summary
Monday Gold had a quiet day as the price action traded within a two day range.
Market overview
The breach of the 1277 level being the 1st April low has technically changed the daily trend to down. This puts the daily trend in gear with the weekly down trend. The breach of the 1270.00 support level has confirmed the daily down trend.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has open quietly as the price action trades within Monday’s candle ranges.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to continue its move under the under the 1250.00 support level and test yesterdays lows.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold trade back up to the 1270.00 resistance level.
USDCAD
Summary
Monday USDCAD consolidated around its averages as the price action continued to test the 1.0940 resistance level.
Market overview
USDCAD is trading in a daily down trend however the weekly uptrend continues to trade positively. A breach of the 1.0813 being the 8th May swing low would confirm that the daily down trend is intact.
However the recent price action has seen a double bottom form. This pattern has been confirmed with USDCAD trading higher.
Focus on today
This morning USDCAD has opened negativley as the price action trades below Monday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a re-test 1.0940 resistance level.
Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that USDCAD retest the 1.0790 support level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Monday AUDUSD had a quiet day as the price action traded within the previous days range.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a down trend with the price action now correcting lower following a rejection of the Fibonacci resistance area.
The downside break opened up the possibility of a breach of the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low. A breach of this level will technically change the daily trend to down.
The recent prior price action has had the effect of creating a bullish consolidation pattern at the highs of this daily up trend.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests trend line resistance.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential break above the triangle top.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 0.9200 level being the 2nd May swing low.
Oil
Summary
Monday Oil had a strong day as the price action traded up to the highs of the triangle top.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias.
The recent price action has seen OILUSD trade within a very large converging triangle formation.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened bullishly as the price action trades above Monday’s candle range and tests the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the triangle top and the 105.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 8 period daily moving averages.