Daily Technical Analysis 16th April 2014
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:35 amDaily Technical Analysis
16th April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD traded around its averages in what was a news driven small range but volatile days trading.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the high of Tuesday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential upside move to the 1.3900 level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a test of trend line support.
GBPUSD
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded through the 1.6700 level but found support at the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However past two day’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the 1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 34 period daily moving averages.
USDJPY
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY for the 6th day continued to trade in a range around the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened strongly as the price action trades above the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action traded back to its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially bounce lower of the averages and take out the 0.8743 level being the 11th April pivot low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could possibly see a test of the averages and move towards the down trend line.
Gold
Summary
Tuesday Gold broke down from its averages as the price action slashed traded higher as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1335.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD continued broke below the 0.9390 resistance level and traded down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly with the price auctioning already testing the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Tuesday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
Summary
Tuesday Oil traded tested the the 103.00 support level but failed to sustain a move lower.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.
16th April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Tuesday EURUSD traded around its averages in what was a news driven small range but volatile days trading.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened bullishly as the price action tests the high of Tuesday’s candle.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential upside move to the 1.3900 level.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a test of trend line support.
GBPUSD
Summary
Tuesday GBPUSD traded through the 1.6700 level but found support at the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However past two day’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the 1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action retest the 34 period daily moving averages.
USDJPY
Summary
Tuesday USDJPY for the 6th day continued to trade in a range around the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened strongly as the price action trades above the highs of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY retest the 101.70 support level.
USDCHF
Summary
Tuesday USDCHF continued to correct to the upside as the price action traded back to its averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades within Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can potentially bounce lower of the averages and take out the 0.8743 level being the 11th April pivot low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could possibly see a test of the averages and move towards the down trend line.
Gold
Summary
Tuesday Gold broke down from its averages as the price action slashed traded higher as the price action tested the 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts. Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally be drawn to this area.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Gold to bounce off Fibonacci support and trade up to the 1335.00 resistance level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Tuesday AUDUSD continued broke below the 0.9390 resistance level and traded down to the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly with the price auctioning already testing the lows of Tuesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move beneath the low of Tuesday’s candle range and move into the direction of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back above the 0.9390 level.
Oil
Summary
Tuesday Oil traded tested the the 103.00 support level but failed to sustain a move lower.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Tuesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 support level.