11th April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Thursday EURUSD continued to trade higher as the price action traded and closed above the 1.3875 level being the prior pivot high of the 24th March high.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high. The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential test of the 1.3966 level being the 13h March prior swing high.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility we see a move back to the averages.
GBPUSD
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD continued to trade higher as the price action once again tested the 1.6795 resistance level which coincided with the prior high of the 17th February.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook. The past two day’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6795 level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 support level.
USDJPY
Summary
Thursday USDJPY resumed its downward journey as the price action traded and closed below the 101.70 support level.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing the third day of a strong corrective pull back. A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened positively with the price action trading above the 101.70 support level.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a close beneath the 101.70 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHF
Summary
Thursday USDCHF continued to experienced a strong downside correction off trend line resistance with the price action continuing to trade beneath the 34 period daily moving
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That recent 4 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to its averages.
Gold
Summary
Thursday Gold traded and closed above the 1310 resistance level and traded towards the 34 period moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1310.00 support level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 0.9390 resistance level and accelarates towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened bearishly as the price action trades beneath Wednesday’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
Oil
Summary
Wednesday Oil continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly as the price action trades within Wednesday’s candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 103.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see Oil trade up to the 105.00 level.