Daily Technical Analysis 4th April 2014
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:44 pmDaily Technical Analysis
4th April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Thursday EURUSD broke down from its averages as the price action traded down to Fibonacci support.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades at the lows of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off trend line and Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility tests trend line support.
GBPUSD
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD traded and closed under the prior broken up trend line as the price action traded down to the 1.6570 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of yesterday’s range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6570 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 resistance level.
USDJPY
Summary
Thursday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it closed for the second day above the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
Summary
Thursday USDCHF traded and closed above the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The upside move continued all day until the price action was held at the 50% Fibonacci level, the 0.8930 resistance level and trend line resistance.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened positively as it trades at the highs of Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially test the 0.8930 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
Summary
Thursday Gold following its bounce off the 50% Fibonacci support level failed to break above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within the previous 3 days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
Summary
Thursday Oil had a strong up day as the price action traded back up to its averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively with the price action trades above Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded around the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
Summary
Thursday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso opened quietly as the price action trades above the 16,570 level and within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential close above the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.
4th April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Thursday EURUSD broke down from its averages as the price action traded down to Fibonacci support.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. The downside target for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern is in the region of the 1.3420 support level.
However as the weekly chart continues to have a positive bias I am monitoring signs for a base to build within the Fibonacci support area.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades at the lows of the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off trend line and Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility tests trend line support.
GBPUSD
Summary
Thursday GBPUSD traded and closed under the prior broken up trend line as the price action traded down to the 1.6570 support level.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of yesterday’s range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6570 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain lower prices could see the price action test the 1.6700 resistance level.
USDJPY
Summary
Thursday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it closed for the second day above the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading within yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
Summary
Thursday USDCHF traded and closed above the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. The upside move continued all day until the price action was held at the 50% Fibonacci level, the 0.8930 resistance level and trend line resistance.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. That the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has now broken to the upside I am now monitoring the possibility that this pattern reaches its upside target of 0.9080.
However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt. I am therefore monitoring the price action as it tests the downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance for signs of a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened positively as it trades at the highs of Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially test the 0.8930 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
Summary
Thursday Gold following its bounce off the 50% Fibonacci support level failed to break above the 8 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened quietly as the price action trades within the previous 3 days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
Summary
Thursday Oil had a strong up day as the price action traded back up to its averages.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened positively with the price action trades above Thursday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 34 period daily moving averages.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 100.00 level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Thursday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded around the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened quietley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
Summary
Thursday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso opened quietly as the price action trades above the 16,570 level and within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential close above the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.