Daily Technical Analysis 3rd April 2014
Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:46 amDaily Technical Analysis
3rd April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD intially traded higher but was not able to close above the moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. There has been a break beneath the right shoulder could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades within the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move back to Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility tests 1.3875 being the 24th March pivot
GBPUSD
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD continued to trade above the above the prior broken up trend line.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the recent up move.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6570 support level.
USDJPY
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it penetrated the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading at the highs of yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF the prior two day down move as it slashed through and closed above the 8 to 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. I am therefore monitoring signs for a base to be built that will allow for further upside move and a test of the downward sloping trend line. The bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming puts the price pattern in line with this hypothesis. However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially trade up to last week’s high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
Summary
Wednesday Gold bounce higher off the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The break above the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened positively as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
Summary
Wednesday Oil continued to trade lower as the price action closed at the lows of the previous days range.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly with the price action trading within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negativley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
Summary
Wednesday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso pened quietly as the price action trades within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential re-test of the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.
3rd April 2014
EURUSD
Summary
Wednesday EURUSD intially traded higher but was not able to close above the moving averages.
Market overview
EURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend. However there has been a recent strong correction which has had the effect of creating a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is marked by the ellipse. There has been a break beneath the right shoulder could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support.
Focus on today
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively as it trades within the previous days range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move back to Fibonacci support.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility tests 1.3875 being the 24th March pivot
GBPUSD
Summary
Wednesday GBPUSD continued to trade above the above the prior broken up trend line.
Market overview
GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
More recently GBPUSD has experienced a strong downside correction and this has had the effect of creating a large converging triangle consolidation pattern. As GBPUSD has bow bounced off Fibonacci support and with the weekly trend pointing up I would expect this triangle pattern when it breaks to trade higher.
Focus on today
This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the highs of the recent up move.
I am today monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.6700 resistance level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action test the 1.6570 support level.
USDJPY
Summary
Wednesday USDJPY continued to trade higher as it penetrated the 103.76 level being the prior swing high of the 7th March.
Market overview
The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum.
Focus on today
This morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading at the highs of yesterday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a move towards the 104.85 level being the prior swing high of the 25th January
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDJPY trade down to the 103.40 level.
USDCHF
Summary
Wednesday USDCHF the prior two day down move as it slashed through and closed above the 8 to 34 period daily moving averages.
Market overview
USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it. I am therefore monitoring signs for a base to be built that will allow for further upside move and a test of the downward sloping trend line. The bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming puts the price pattern in line with this hypothesis. However daily and weekly bias does continue to be fixed to the downside therefore shorting rallies is still probably the most logical strategy to adopt.
Focus on today
This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the highs of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially trade up to last week’s high.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF test the moving averages.
Gold
Summary
Wednesday Gold bounce higher off the 50% Fibonacci support level.
Market overview
Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December. The break above the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
That Gold has experienced a strong daily time frame correction has pushed the price action into Fibonacci support and the ability or not of Fibonacci support to push Gold higher will give an indication if the bullish daily up trend or the bearish weekly down trend will win this current battle.
Focus on today
This morning Gold has opened positively as the price action trades at the highs of the previous days candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to trade up to the 1310.00 level.
Alternatively a failure to penetrate the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1270.00 level.
Oil
Summary
Wednesday Oil continued to trade lower as the price action closed at the lows of the previous days range.
Market overview
Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December. The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher. However Oil needs to hold above the 97.35 level so as to maintain its daily uptrend.
Focus on today
This morning Oil has opened quietly with the price action trading within Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 100.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade back down to the 98.00 level.
AUDUSD
Summary
Wednesday AUDUSD experienced a quiet day as it traded down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market overview
AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February. However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area. That AUDUSD has formed a large inverse head and shoulders pattern it will be interesting to see if either this pattern trades to its upside target which comes in at the 0.9535 level or if Fibonacci resistance will offer a strong barrier to further upside momentum.
Focus on today
This morning AUDUSD has opened negativley as the price action tests the 8 period moving averages.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential move into the direction of trend line support.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD tests the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level.
Dow30
Summary
Wednesday Dow30 continued to trade higher as the price action tested the 16,570 resistance level.
Market overview
The move above the 16,514 being the 7th March swing high has changed the daily trend to up. This has put the daily trend in gear with the weekly trend.
Focus on today
This morning Dow30 haso pened quietly as the price action trades within the previous days candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential re-test of the 16,570 resistance level.
Alternatively if Dow30 fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that Dow30 trades down to the 16,500 support level.