Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 20th November 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday European open was initially positive as EURUSD traded marginally above the previous day’s high. However EURUSD reversed during the early morning session and tested but did not breach the previous day’s low. The holding of support gave EURUSD an opportunity to build a base from where it once again tested and this time breached intraday resistance. Ultimately EURUSD closed the day up and above trend line resistance.
Market open focus
The overnight session has seen EURUSD trade 33 pips above the previous day’s high. However the price action found resistance at the 34 period moving averages and has since retraced most of its gains and is now trading just above intraday support.
We are monitoring the price action around the overnight 1hour pivot high for an indication of today’s possible market direction with potential longs above 1.3580 and shorts beneath 1.3530.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3480 to 1.3580.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded up to but found resistance at the 34 period moving averages. If the price action can hold beneath this average there is a possibility that EURUSD trades down to the previous day’s low which coincides with the 8 period moving averages.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has now made an initial attempt to penetrate the 34 period moving averages so early in the session there is a possibility that a further attempt is made today to breach this level. However the move up from yesterday’s low are some 90 pips which equate to us around 1 daily average range. Therefore is a question mark on how much more energy EURUSD has left to continue the up thrust from here.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th November 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD experience another narrow range day with some 70 odd pips separating the high to the low. This is well below the daily average of 100 pips. GBPUSD continues to trade above the swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has opened mixed and is trading in the middle of yesterday’s range.
We are monitoring a possible initial break of the high or low of this range.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6040 to 1.6160.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades in between yesterday’s range. As this morning’s range is fairly tight an upside breach of the 18th November high of 1.6148 could see GBPUSD make an attempt at reaching the multi month downward sloping trend line. However this would entail a move of 140 odd pips from the overnight low and therefore this might not be achievable during today’s session.
2. Alternatively a break beneath yesterday’s low could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching trend line support. This move will be well within the projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 20th November 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF open mixed but then experienced a modest up thrust but which failed to breach the prior session high. During the New York session USDCHF began to weaken and traded down and in the process breached and closed beneath the prior session low.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF continued to follow the prior sessions lead and traded lower but has found support at the 34 period moving averages.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9075 to 0.9145.
Today’s scenarios
1. USDCHF is now trading beneath yesterday’s session low but is finding support at the 34 period moving averages. If support can hold there is a possibility that USDCHF trades up to the previous sessions high.
2. Alternatively a breach of the overnight low could see USDCHF breach the 34 period moving averages.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The price action is trading within the positively layered moving averages and above trend line support after what has been a substantial downside correction. An upside break would have initial target of the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 20th November 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY traded down to the 8 period moving averages where it found support at 99.56. Off support USDJPY traded higher and this led to an intraday one hour swing low pivot being printed. The up move off support continued with USDJPY printing an intraday higher low and high higher sequence. USDJPY finally closed day above the prior days high.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY has opened and trading lower from yesterday’s session high. I am monitoring a potential move down to yesterday’s session intraday support level.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.50 to 100.60.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can bounce off the trend line support with a resulting move taking the price action back up to at least the 100.60 level.
2. Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above the previous day’s high could see USDJPY trade back down yesterday’s session low.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels.
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.