Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD once again traded up to but was unable to breach previously broken trend line support but did manage however to closed above the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
EURUSD has moved 44 pips lower from its overnight high and currently trading within a 20 pip congestion area and in the middle of yesterdays low to high range. I am currently monitoring a possible early morning up or downside break to the area of yesterdays previous high or low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3388 to 1.3518.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 13th November trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from yesterday’s low of some 170 pips which allowing for an average daily range of 100 pips might not be achievable.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday after initially breaking down GBPUSD reversed off its lows and closed the day higher. In the process GBPUSD also penetrated and closed above the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD had traded some 50 pips lower from its overnight high but this move has since retraced with the price action slightly beneath yesterdays high and above this morning’s open. Furthermore GBPUSD is currently trading above the 34 period moving averages.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5996 to 1.6091.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades near the previous day’s high resistance area. As we have already had a good 110 plus move from yesterday’s low which exceeds the current average true range reading it would be interesting to see if there GBPUSD has enough energy left to trade higher but the possibility of a further 70 pips to the upside is traded today from the current price of 1.6085 should not be ruled out.
2. However on the flip side GBPUSD has had a good up move. Therefore a failure to sustain a break above yesterday’s high could see GBPUSD once again breach trend line support but this time to the down side with the daily target being yesterday’s low at 1.5987.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF reversed off it’s the previous day and its early morning low and traded substantially higher before collapsing at lunch time and paring most of its gains. However USDCHF did eventually close marginally higher.
The price action effectively has been whipping around the 8 period moving averages and bouncing of trend line support for the past two days.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF has been trading within a tight 15 pip congestion range and some 45 pips above yesterday afternoons low and 15 pips beneath yesterday’s high. A break above or beneath this congestion area should quickly lead to a move into previous day’s support and resistance.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9113 to 0.9205.
Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF continues to trade around the 8 period moving averages which a potential value area is for longs to be placed. A break above this morning congestion area will quickly lead to move into the area of the previous day’s high being 0.9176/0.9188. This area my initial point of interest as the previous day’s high will need to broken so as to allow for an upside move to happen. Allowing for the average true range calculation there is potential for at least a 30 pip move from the current level at 0.9172.
2. Alternatively break beneath this morning congestion zone puts in play a potential move to the previous days low.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY had a good up day as it reversed off the previous day’s low. The resulting rally did not pull back at all during yesterday’s trading session. In the process USDJPY printed an above average daily range and more importantly closed above both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY is trading a little under 40 pips from the morning high after it experience its first substantial retracement of the past 24 hours.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.50 to 100.65.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can break back into and then sustain a move above today’s high. Yesterdays stellar up move that finally penetrated the 100 level does put in question how much energy has been used up to break above the downward sloping trend line. However this morning minor retracement could possibly be followed by acceleration away from the 100 level. Allowing for the upside projection of 100.65 based upon the true range calculation potentially there is in the region of a further 50 pips available today on the long side. However it should be noted that this calculation is based off average projected range and daily ranges vary greatly day to day.
2. Alternatively that the converging triangle high and the 100 level has been breached do not mean it is a simple case of up and don’t look back. USDJPY is still trading within a big Fibonacci resistance area and the break above both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 levels could potentially be a bear trap. A failure to therefore to sustain a move above the high that was printed this morning could lead to a potential reversal at least challenges the 100 level and then broken trend line resistance.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. Yesterday’s breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels .
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.