Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD traded up to previously broken trend line support and closed above the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning EURUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3397 to 1.3562.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of yesterday’s trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move of some 125 pips which is slightly above the projected average daily range of 100 pips.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD had a strong bounce following its penetration of the low of the 16th October. The corrective rally took GBPUSD up to its averages and on its way penetrated a previously broken up trend line. GBPUSD finally closed at a fairly recently formed downward sloping trend line.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5960 to 1.6125.
Today’s scenarios
1. GBP is currently trading in between the averages and at a downward sloping trend line. The area of the averages is a potential value area where shorts could possibly be entered. As the average true range is some 100 pips a down side break has the potential to erase up to 50% of yesterdays corrective rally.
2. Alternatively as GBPUSD has traded up to the averages, a break above them could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching the minor high pivot of the 6th November at 1.6117. This target is well inside the upper limit of today’s projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Comments
Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fifth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.
Market open focus
This morning CHFUSD is trading higher from its overnight low and is bouncing off both the 8 period moving averages as previously broken trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9100 to 0.9191.
Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF is finding support at the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The ultimate target for any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is two average daily ranges away from the overnight low. Therefore a breach of yesterday’s high might be a more conservative and achievable target.
2. Alternatively an intraday downside reversal could see USDCHF attempt to breach the low of the 7th November being the lower limit of the 5 day trading range.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 14th November 20133
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY traded lower off converging triangle resistance as it corrected back down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY is trading higher from its overnight low as it attempts to break above trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.00 to 100.00.
Today’s scenarios
1. The strong open has had the result that USDJPY has already traded an average daily range. This leads to two possibilities for the long side. That this morning’s move will soon pause as it runs out of energy or this will be a stellar up day for this currency pair. As posted yesterday a breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts into play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.
2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning’s strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.
2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday Gold corrected higher as and closed just beneath the prior days open.
Mark open focus
This morning Gold is trading slightly higher from its overnight low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1267.00 to 1287.
Today’s scenarios
1. Gold is trading up to the 8 period moving average‘s. We are monitoring the potential for a reversal that breaches yesterday’s low.
2. Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action becomes extended from the averages.
Macro Trade ideas
1. As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities with 28th June’s low at 1180.20 being the target.
2. Alternatively if Gold can hold above the 14th October low there is a possibility that a higher low is printed and a move to the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday WTI attempted to trade back above the 8 period moving averages before finally reversing but ultimately closing slightly higher.
Market open focus
This morning WTU is trading higher from its overnight low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 92.50 to 94.80.
Today’s scenarios
1. This morning WTI is trading back up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. We are monitoring a potential move down to the 12th November of 92.84 which is well with the lower limit of the average daily range.
2. Alternatively a move above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI correct the majority of the 12th November break down.
Macro Trade ideas
1. WTI on a daily swing basis is trading with a negative trend and this is confirmed by the moving averages confirming this direction. The breach of the 6th November low will confirm the rejection of 8 period moving averages 93.50 resistance area. We are monitoring a potential move down to trend line support.
2. However the weekly time frame remains positive. This might indication the current daily down trend is a large corrective move. As the price action is now trading within weekly Fibonacci support a sustained break above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI trade up to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro technical levels
110.50, 107.65, 100.65, 100.40, 98.20, 92.50, 91.20, 89.30, 85.60, 84.50, 77.25