Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Friday was another wide range day which eventually closed lower. Although Friday’s price action managed to close beneath Thursday’s close there was not sufficient downside momentum for EURUSD to trade beneath the low of Thursday’s trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet and within Fridays trading range.
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath 7th November low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.
In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down.
However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
On Friday GBPUSD retested trend line support but failed in its attempt to breach this area. This morning’s open has so far been quiet with the price action trading just above the trend line and with Fibonacci support.
On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5890 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Friday USDCHF made a further attempt to breach trend line resistance but was unable break above this area. However the price action did manage to close near the highs of its days range.
This morning’s open has thus far been quiet. We are monitoring the price action for signs that USDCHF will either make another attempt to retest trend line resistance or fall back to its overextended averages.
On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.
Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.
Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Following Thursday 7th volatile day which printed both a higher high and lower close attention was focused on which way USDJPY would move and if the price action that followed confirmed the direction. Friday’s price action has given some confirmation that the printing of the higher high will lead to a new uptrend. Friday’s bar did in fact close strongly and near the top of its trading range and above positively layered averages. However Friday’s bar did not breach the 7th November high. We would want to see such a breach for further upside confirmation.
This morning USDJPY has opened slightly negatively but it is rather early in the session to extract any conclusions from this. Our main focuses of attention for today is can USDJPY trade above the 7th November high and then make an attempt in breaching the downward sloping trend line.
As mentioned in previous postings the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.
However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Friday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
This morning’s open has thus far been quiet with the price action trading within Friday’s trading range.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
On Friday Oil continued to hug the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.
This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 4 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.
The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.
Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.