Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 7th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday’s surprise rate cut decision led to a collapse in EURUSD with the price action breaking through trend line support. By the afternoon buying came into the market which paired some of the losses. This reaction to the sell off formed a large V bottom and substantial correction that allowed EURUSD to close just beneath prior trend line support.
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath yesterday’s low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.
In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layer negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by yesterday’s break down and the breach of Fibonacci support.
However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3650, and 1.3930. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 8th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday GBPUSD attempted to trade lower only for support to come into the market and in the process allow for a slightly higher close. This morning’s open has so far been quiet.
On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 8th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterdays upside break of the 3 day range was followed by a breach of both trend line resistance and more importantly the 15th October high. The breach of this high is significant as USDCHF has now printed a higher high that effectively changes the trend on a swing basis to up. However yesterday was not a totally positive day as selling came into the market at trend line resistance that paired some of yesterday’s gains and in the process a bearish shooting star candle has been printed.
This morning USDCHF has opened within yesterdays large range in what is so far a quiet open.
On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.
Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.
Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 8th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday USDJPY experienced a great deal of volatility and in the process printed a higher high that followed the breach of the 17th October high. This morning USDJPY is trading within yesterdays large range in what is a quiet open.
As mentioned yesterday the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.
However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 8th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday Gold broke down from the tight trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 8th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday Oil traded lower after touching the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.
This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 2 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.
The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.
Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.