Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 1st November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday EURUSD traded aggressively lower as it broke through trend line support and finally closing at the 34 period moving averages. Yesterday’s negativity has followed through to this morning’s session with EURUSD opening and trading beneath the 34 period moving average and deep into Fibonacci support.
After such a strong move down, the obvious focus goes onto the 16th October prior isolated low with. A move beneath this level will turn the daily swing bias to negativity. This scenario alone could give impetus for further down side movement.
However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned.
In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 16th October prior isolated low at 1.3470.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 34 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further to the 16th October prior isolated low.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 1st November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday USDCHF experienced a stellar up day as it trade up and closed above the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF has opened positively and we are now monitoring the potential for a move to trend line resistance.
On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.
The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDJPY yesterday failed to trade into Fibonacci resistance. This failure has followed through into this morning’s session with USDJPY trading lower. We are monitoring the price action to see if a potential down move can be held at trend line support. Furthermore as USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.
In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.
However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 1st November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Following the corrective rally Gold yesterday resumed its down trend by trading aggressively lower. This morning Gold has had thus far a very quiet open.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 1st November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Oil has traded lower following its correction and touch of the 8 period moving averages. Yesterday Oil continued with the downward momentum albeit at a slower pace. This morning the price action has opened positively.
With the last isolated low of the 24th October being at the 95.93 Oil will need to breach of this level to continue with the down move. However Oil is now trading into a large weekly congestion area at around the 95.50 area therefore this support area needs to be overcome.
The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.