Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade higher following it’s bounced off the 8 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of short term directional momentum.
In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that EURUSD may experience a downward or sideways correction.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday GBPUSD traded down off multiyear trend line resistance. This moved has followed through into this morning with GBPUSD approaching close to the 8 period moving averages which is our initial support and value area for potential long entries. If GBPUSD can hold this level there is potential for a retest of resistance and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.
With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD now trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of this level and a potential move back down to the 34 period moving averages and trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames.
Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down the 34 period moving averages and trend line support.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday once again USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area but on this occasion managed to close beneath this level. This morning this negative momentum is continuing. The next potential support level is 0.8930 which corresponds to a weekly pivot swing low.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday USDJPY continues its move down following the rejection of the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of possible short term directional momentum.
All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis.
However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Having breached the low of the 18th September pivot the daily trend in Gold has turned negative on a swing bases. The move down was large and exceeded the daily average range. That Gold experience a large bounce is in line with a corrective move that is in line with the weekly RSI positive divergence and the price action being extended from the averages.
The correction however may have been completed as Gold has now traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. Furthermore the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is now forming continues the focus for the time on possible short set ups.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade up to the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th October 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Monday’s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With the 101 level holding Oil was propelled higher and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages.
As the trend on a swing bias is short we are monitoring the price action for potential shorting opportunities. However as the weekly time frame remains positive there is a possibility that this move down is just a correction.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.