Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/21/2013
Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:15 amDaily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/21/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day.
Following the bounce off the downward sloping trend line EURUSD found further support at the 8 period moving averages. This possibility was discussed in previous posts. The move off the averages yesterday was aggressive and had enough upward momentum to breach the prior swing high. This breach effectively changes the trend from short to long.
We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has breached trend line resistance.
3. The RSI is confirming the move.
4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
5. The averages have crossed positively.
6. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into resistance could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day.
Further to the subdued price action GBPUSD is trading within a very narrow 2 day range.
We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area.
In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias has turned positive.
2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity.
3. The averages have crossed positively.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The moving averages are somewhat extended.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day
Further to the breach of the 8 period moving averages and the downward momentum has continued with further breaches of the 0.9200 support area and upward sloping trend line. This move has in the process also breached the prior swing low and has therefore reinforced the negative bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias.
3. The RSI is in gear with the move.
4. The averages are negatively layered.
5. The price action is trading beneath the averages.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading below the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day.
This morning USDJPY is trading within 6 day range as it consolidates around the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break significantly below this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area.
We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The moving averages have crossed negatively.
3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line.
6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias.
2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day.
Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The moving averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is trading above the averages.
5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level.
6. The RSI is in gear with the move.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to point down.
2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone.
3. The price action is extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day.
Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. In fact the current price action with Oil breaching and trading beneath the 34 period moving averages might indicate a lower high could be printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish consolidation flag.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The prior down spike has been reversed.
2. The price action is trading above the averages.
3. The averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern.
5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle.
6. The weekly RSI diverging positively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day.
Following the bounce off the downward sloping trend line EURUSD found further support at the 8 period moving averages. This possibility was discussed in previous posts. The move off the averages yesterday was aggressive and had enough upward momentum to breach the prior swing high. This breach effectively changes the trend from short to long.
We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has breached trend line resistance.
3. The RSI is confirming the move.
4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
5. The averages have crossed positively.
6. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into resistance could be viewed as buying opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day.
Further to the subdued price action GBPUSD is trading within a very narrow 2 day range.
We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area.
In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias has turned positive.
2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity.
3. The averages have crossed positively.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame.
6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The moving averages are somewhat extended.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day
Further to the breach of the 8 period moving averages and the downward momentum has continued with further breaches of the 0.9200 support area and upward sloping trend line. This move has in the process also breached the prior swing low and has therefore reinforced the negative bias.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias.
3. The RSI is in gear with the move.
4. The averages are negatively layered.
5. The price action is trading beneath the averages.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading below the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day.
This morning USDJPY is trading within 6 day range as it consolidates around the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break significantly below this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area.
We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias remains negative.
2. The moving averages have crossed negatively.
3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level.
4. The RSI is confirming the move.
5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line.
6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias.
2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day.
Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is positive.
2. The price action has printed a higher low.
3. The moving averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is trading above the averages.
5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level.
6. The RSI is in gear with the move.
Alternative counter trend bearish factors:
1. The weekly time frame continues to point down.
2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone.
3. The price action is extended from the averages.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st August 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day.
Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. In fact the current price action with Oil breaching and trading beneath the 34 period moving averages might indicate a lower high could be printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish consolidation flag.
In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative.
The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias:
1. The swing bias is negative.
Alternative counter trend bullish factors:
1. The prior down spike has been reversed.
2. The price action is trading above the averages.
3. The averages are layered positively.
4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern.
5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle.
6. The weekly RSI diverging positively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.